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  1.    #1  
    Hi,

    FYI.

    Take care,

    Jay

    The Future of RIM and BlackBerrys

    Research In Motion (RIM) doesn’t get it. It seemingly has no idea as to what consumers want right now in a smartphone. In fact, as its stocked has lost around 25% this year already, Apple’s has gained nearly the same. No, I’m not going to compare the iPhone to the BlackBerry here, I’m going to compare the BlackBerry to everything else available and explain why RIM needs to make some dramatic changes before it goes the way of Palm. Palm? Yes, Palm.

    Taking a gander through all of the market research reports, stock analysis and opinion pieces today, I came to the startling conclusion that some are already starting to write off RIM as a failure and questioning how long the company can stay in business. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think things are that bad–yet–but if RIM keeps losing market share at its current pace and if any of the surveys on smartphone purchasing behavior are accurate, RIM could fall into third place domestically pretty quickly and into fourth place globally.

    So what about the BlackBerry Torch 9800? To be honest, it is too 2008 in comparison to what’s coming out on other platforms in the smartphone arena. Processing power, screen resolution, etc. are all behind the times. The Torch is an excellent phone at what it does, but what it does isn’t exactly what everyone wants. Email support as always is great, as are the contacts, calendar and messaging features, but everyone does that now. Everyone has support for Microsoft Exchange, everyone can do encrypted stuff via software, everyone can sync with Microsoft Outlook and everyone can run multiple messaging clients at once. Okay, there are a few exceptions here and there but you get the point. Unless you are a longtime BlackBerry user, you probably don’t see the BlackBerry as a sexy and fun smartphone anymore. And if you are a longtime BlackBerry user, you probably don’t care. Which brings me to my next point…

    Corporate customers of RIM are currently locked into upgrade cycles like every business. Between ROI (return on investment) figures IT departments juggle, the costs of training everyone to use a new smartphone platform, and the expect life of all the BlackBerry Enterprise components already installed, companies aren’t switching from BlackBerrys in droves right now because they simply cannot. There is no point in wasting money. Another few years? That’s a different story. And if we factor in Microsoft’s coming version 7 of its Windows Mobile platform, even more cards are tossed into the mix. Microsoft did invent Exchange email you know and has a ton of money to throw behind things once it gets into gear. Look at how quickly it managed to get into the video game business and become a major player through big investments.

    I took a peak at some leaked BlackBerry Bold 9780 (codenamed the R020) marketing slides BoyGeniusReport posted and that’s what set me off on this rant. If RIM really believes what it put into the slides–the R020 will capitalize on the success of the 9700 and continue to do what people love, or that it is the “perfect balance of speed, power and style”–then I really don’t know what to say except that RIM’s marketing department needs to open its eyes. Nearly every critic (excluding the ****** sites of course) has derided the dated hardware this phone is getting already since its already been in the Bold 9700 and the Torch 9800.

    Some are already calling for RIM to end the BlackBerry OS and switch to Google’s Android. I don’t think that should be the answer though. Firing some of the leadership would be a good start however. Fresh blood in the R&D, marketing and leadership positions is essential if all RIM can keep producing is basically the same phone it always had just in different flavors with underwhelming upgraded specs. I love the BlackBerry, but enough is enough. I want a BlackBerry made for 2010 and beyond, and so far, RIM has failed to deliver.

    Sorry for ranting. Let me know what you think about what I said here.
    Please Support Research into Fibromyalgia, Chronic Pain and Spinal Injuries. If You Suffer from These, Consider Joining or Better Yet Forming a Support Group. No One Should Suffer from the Burden of Chronic Pain, Jay M. S. Founder, Leesburg Fibromyalgia/Resources Group
  2. #2  
    I agree BB did not deliever correctly on the new resurfaced BB platform. The BB 6 I think was hurt throught the torch, as you stated, because of the inferior specs. Also without adding things like a front facing cameria (even though it may not be exactly needed its what people nowadays are looking to have on a phone). BB yes needs to give what the massess want, and hopefully HP understands this and presents the next wave of Webos devices with these things in mind, because nowadays just having a great OS is not enought without all the bells and whistles.
  3. #3  
    they are still #1 market share, and the Enterprise Server is a major advantage.
  4. #4  
    Glad they didn't end up buying Palm....
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by Workerb33 View Post
    they are still #1 market share, and the Enterprise Server is a major advantage.
    yes they are, but the way the market is moving nowadays as you can see the Android onlaught it easy for them to keep slipping over time as his article states and really be in trouble.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    What Blackberry has going for it is a healthy customer base that it hasn't lost yet. The problem with Palm is that is has largely lost its user base and will have to win-over large numbers of new customers in order to survive.

    I still haven't heard much about how they are going to do that. In fact, I think it's the reason why HP doesn't really emphasize smartphones. It's not their user-base either.
    yup -- well said.

    BB's installed enterprise user base has inertia and isn't going anywhere overnight.

    The Torch is not going to convert many to BB, but it at least gives its existing users enough to not alienate them.

    Their problem is that eventually IT depts will gravitate to accommodate their users which is toward Apple and Android. Wall Street sees the pattern and is pricing the stock as on a long slow glide path to irrelevancy.

    But they're still profitable and still in charge of their own fate -- they own their own popular OS and ecosystem. Converting to Android would only make them another Android OEM -- and quicken their fall to dissolution.

    If any of you have seen their recent marketing and ads, BB is trying to become cool, trying to expand its demographics -- so they at least seem to understand their problem.

    It now just has to build products that justify their marketing, that compete with Android, Apple -- and which can attract great Apps.

    The App problem is the toughest.

    They probably have 2-4 years max to turn it around.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  7. #7  
    I agree. I look at them now like i looked at Palm before the webOS turnaround... too comfortable with what form factors they have and what OS they are running... not willing to innovate enough.

    They need to overhaul the entire UI in my opinion, for them to get out of this bad rep.
  8. #8  
    rim should of bought palm
  9. #9  
    true BB has a huge fanbase already, and I agree with stated above that I think HP dosent emphesize smartphones due to those reasons. Though Hp is a giant in printer, and laptop sales, and I believe they will be in regards to utilizing Webos into tablets and laptops. Now think out the box with the user base they have already with HP, and with them slowly intergrating Webos into their fan base, I think the mindshare for webos (if used and marketed correctly) will skyrocket IMO. While HP still creates smartphones to compete, one would think there regular consumers who purchase HP products, that are slowly introduced to WEBOS will be picking up those smartphones too not just stateside, but worldwide. I have faith Webos will be just fine.
  10. #10  
    On Engadget, a commenter said something to the affect that RIM is the new Nokia. Another commenter followed up by noting the problem with that statement is that Nokia is still the new Nokia. I think both comments are true. Both companies are extinct dinosaurs and don't even know it. Both are already irrelevant to anyone under 50, and who has a choice of what phone they will use. As far as I'm concerned, Neither RIM nor Nokia are even in the conversation anymore.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by dandbj13 View Post
    On Engadget, a commenter said something to the affect that RIM is the new Nokia. Another commenter followed up by noting the problem with that statement is that Nokia is still the new Nokia. I think both comments are true. Both companies are extinct dinosaurs and don't even know it. Both are already irrelevant to anyone under 50, and who has a choice of what phone they will use. As far as I'm concerned, Neither RIM nor Nokia are even in the conversation anymore.
    yes, but at least RIM still has the possibility of turning things around.

    It still has gobs of loyal users and carrier relationships -- it doesn't have to build from scratch, like HPalm would now need to do in smartphones.

    I think in 2-4 years either WP7 or Rim have about equal chances for being the 3rd strongest mobile OS.

    I'd bet on RIM as 3rd -- and a M$ OS 4th (not sure if that means WP7.)
    Last edited by BARYE; 08/22/2010 at 06:57 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    yes, but at least RIM still has the possibility of turning things around.

    It still has gobs of loyal users and carrier relationships -- it doesn't have to build from scratch, like HPalm would now need to do in smartphones.

    I think in 2-4 years either WP7 or Rim have about equal chances for being the 3rd strongest mobile OS.

    I'd bet on RIM as 3rd -- and a M$ OS 4th (not sure if that means WP7.)
    What you say may be true. But i'm still more interested in seeing what HP does with webOS.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    yes, but at least RIM still has the possibility of turning things around. It still has gobs of loyal users and carrier relationships -- it doesn't have to build from scratch, like HPalm would now need to do in smartphones.
    What RIM doesn't have is a clue. They are so drunk on their own Kool-aid, they thought BBOS6 was the answer. They thought the Torch was the next big thing. They have no idea why they are losing mind and market-share.

    They remind me of the idiots at MS who thought the KIN was a good idea. Those are the same people who are in charge of WP7. Does HP have any more of a clue? We shale see.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by dandbj13 View Post
    What RIM doesn't have is a clue. They are so drunk on their own Kool-aid, they thought BBOS6 was the answer. They thought the Torch was the next big thing. They have no idea why they are losing mind and market-share.

    They remind me of the idiots at MS who thought the KIN was a good idea. Those are the same people who are in charge of WP7. Does HP have any more of a clue? We shall see.
    RIM is in a place that reminds of where Palm was when the Treo had begun to be obsoleted by Apple.

    Palm spun around chasing its tails for several years till it was out of ideas, out of money, and out of time.

    RIM is situated similarly. Like Palm, BB thinks of itself as the originator of a dominant smartphone system -- and has been slow to confront its fading status and what it needs to do to recreate and reinvent itself.

    This is in part a symptom of the "incumbent's disease" -- where a dominant player feels they cannot reject their legacy baggage of: users, code, and UI -- and yet lacks the creativity to meet its new challengers while still carrying those burdens of its past.

    For all the limitations that have rightfully been observed regarding the Torch and their new OS, I see that RIM is at least aware that they're in trouble and are attempting to address it while they still have time, money, and customers.

    In contrast, Palm -- one of the worse managed companies ever -- was like a deer in the headlights when the iPhone was announced.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
    What you say may be true. But i'm still more interested in seeing what HP does with webOS.
    Every day on this forum some long time loyal webOS user defects to Android (usually) or iPhone.

    HPalm was bought for 1.2 Billion -- and has allowed its base of users and goodwill to be frizzled away ever since.

    Palm did the same thing before when it introduced webOS. (and M$ feels that they must dispense with its Win Mobile legacy if WP7 is to have a chance -- and they may be right.)

    Irrespective of the justifications, its much more expensive to acquire users and loyalty than it is to keep, nourish, and transition them.
    Last edited by BARYE; 08/22/2010 at 10:37 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)

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