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  1. #21  
    I don't care if I have the latest and greatest phone, they are outdated the day you buy them and something new comes along. I always hold on to mine at least two years. I mean c'mon folks it is just a phone. You are being bought and sold that is what they want you to do, buy the latest and greatest every few months.
  2. #22  
    This is more about market expansion than it is people that "must have the latest and greatest". The market is (and has been) expanding to include the average consumer. Highend smart phones are now reaching a penetration level where the average consumer now wants/needs a device that has email, internet, music, gaming, etc. all on one device.
    Also, the availability of other devices (besides the iPhone) have helped dramatically increase the availability of devices like this to the general consumer.

    I think a VERY small percentage of people buy a new telephone every 3-4 months (or even every 6 months). Hell I am a tech/gadget obsessed individual and I don't even upgrade that frequently. I think your average tech heavy individual upgrades (on average) once every 12 months and the general consumer upgrades (or purchases a new device) once every 18-36 months.

    Also, just like desktop computers in the early 2000's... they are advancing technology pretty quickly and those advancements are fairly significant to the end user experience. So there is a fairly large "evolution" in technology taking place from the perspective of the average consumer.

    Add in the explosion of things like Facebook and Twitter of the past couple years and having those same platforms available on these new devices... and people that generally weren't interested in a "high-end" smartphone previously are now more inclined to purchase one.
    Last edited by gmanvbva; 08/17/2010 at 09:34 AM.
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by JimOhara View Post
    I don't care if I have the latest and greatest phone, they are outdated the day you buy them and something new comes along. I always hold on to mine at least two years. I mean c'mon folks it is just a phone. You are being bought and sold that is what they want you to do, buy the latest and greatest every few months.
    I sold my iphone 3GS for around 350.00.

    What other phones sold around then would sell for that much? A sprint pre? Hero? Moment? A blackberry? Probably a hundred or so.

    It doesn't cost me anything to upgrade iphones except the initial cost.

    I spent 299 for an iphone 3G. I sold it for around 400. I used that to buy an iphone 3GS for 299. Sold this for 350. Bought an iphone 4 for 299. Next June i'll sell it and get something else.

    In all then, i've spent 150 on iphone hardware since June 2008.

    I'm upgrading iphones each year and i'm making a profit. AT&T could choose not to offer upgrade pricing each year, but it hasn't happened yet. After checking to see what my upgrade date is for next year, it says i'm already eligible. Go figure.
  4. #24  
    Yes, I just did that too.

    Sold my two-year old 3G on Ebay last week, made quite a bit more than cost of my (contract priced) iPhone.
  5. #25  
    There's a notion that Android users upgrade every time a new phone comes out which I don't think is even close to accurate. A more likely scenario is different people upgrade at different inflection points.

    Especially since each new device is more of an incremental upgrade than a generational leap. I mean, are EVO owners all that choked at the release of the Epic?
  6. #26  
    Yes,
    the upgrade eligibility is most likely the largest motive to get a new device.
    I would guess most those who left in the recent Exodus were ones who were eligible for an upgrade and Palm had nothing.

    If you're a happy iPhone user; you get the next new iPhone when you're eligible for an upgrade.
    If you're a happy Android user; you get the next new Android when you're eligible for an upgrade.

    Those who didn't leave because they were disappointed with the Pre, left because Palm has nothing new to offer.
  7. #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    Those who didn't leave because they were disappointed with the Pre, left because Palm has nothing new to offer.
    +26,000,000

    And even though some here may sniff "Well, they'll be back when the C4092 drops with the Cortex A9 chip clocked to 2gajillionhertz", that's not really doing Palm or HP any favors. They not only have to keep people on board by offering something new ASAP, but they have to significantly grow the base.
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    +26,000,000

    And even though some here may sniff "Well, they'll be back when the C4092 drops with the Cortex A9 chip clocked to 2gajillionhertz", that's not really doing Palm or HP any favors. They not only have to keep people on board by offering something new ASAP, but they have to significantly grow the base.
    Yep, i could buy what McNamee was saying way back when. The market was younger. Android wasn't a big hit yet. I was glad i had some Palm stock. Sprint had nothing.

    Verizon and Moto flexed some marketing muscles though and HTC got a Hero on Sprint (and later the Evo). Combined with crap build hardware, a pixi instead of a slab, little in apps, and bizarre marketing, Palm never had a chance.

    So in late 2010 or 2011, things are different. The smartphone market has grown quickly which McNamee and others easily predicted. Each carrier has their hero phones now...none really ripe for the pickings. Android is a force. iPhone to verizon rumors but doing well regardless. MS is getting ready to rev up.

    Palm lost a lot of their biggest base on Sprint by neglecting them. Every launch Pre owner has been eligible to upgrade and has seen devices like the Evo and Epic come their way. These customers won't be upgrade eligible again til mid 2011.

    Lots of questions remain. HP seems to have an interest in Sprint. But does HP have enough savvy to get Sprint in its pocket? All HP has for competition on Sprint is HTC and Samsung. Fight the little battles first. My goal, if HP, would be to rule Sprint. Instant upgrade eligible to all sprint customers buying an HP phone. You do what it takes to get to scale (HP can do this where Palm should have worried about profit moreso).

    I'm rambling on lunch break..sorry if i veered OT.
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
    I sold my iphone 3GS for around 350.00.

    What other phones sold around then would sell for that much? A sprint pre? Hero? Moment? A blackberry? Probably a hundred or so.

    It doesn't cost me anything to upgrade iphones except the initial cost.

    I spent 299 for an iphone 3G. I sold it for around 400. I used that to buy an iphone 3GS for 299. Sold this for 350. Bought an iphone 4 for 299. Next June i'll sell it and get something else.

    In all then, i've spent 150 on iphone hardware since June 2008.

    I'm upgrading iphones each year and i'm making a profit. AT&T could choose not to offer upgrade pricing each year, but it hasn't happened yet. After checking to see what my upgrade date is for next year, it says i'm already eligible. Go figure.
    Why would anyone pay more than list price for a used iphone?
  10. #30  
    Sprint is the most fertile US ground for them right now, but even if they could offer instant upgrades and pull back people who left for Evo and Epic, they gotta change the playbook.

    Marketing has to focus on what this thing actually DOES (which would kind of ripoff both Droid and Sony PS3/PSP marketing, but I digress). Swiping cards and getting unobtrusive notifications isn't enough anymore. Time to open up the checkbook and get some app developers. Not just apps...they should buy a few development HOUSES like Microsoft did for Bungie.

    Microsoft will have a more robust game lineup on launch day than Palm has amassed in fourteen months. That's because they're generating a lot of in-house quality titles. HP should be buying developers to do the same for WebOS. Buy some productivity app developers. Buy some who make fluff like Glee or I Am T-Pain. This stuff will pay dividends across several form factors, so there is no reason not to.
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by hrminer92 View Post
    Why would anyone pay more than list price for a used iphone?
    No contract?
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    +26,000,000

    And even though some here may sniff "Well, they'll be back when the C4092 drops with the Cortex A9 chip clocked to 2gajillionhertz", that's not really doing Palm or HP any favors. They not only have to keep people on board by offering something new ASAP, but they have to significantly grow the base.
    I'm not sure if anyone will come back. While Palm's been working on...stuff...Google and Apple have refined and matured their platforms to the point where coming back to WebOS is a considerable step backwards.
  13. #33  
    though with this android fad, pretty much every phone since the droid has been very very similar. Just up the specs a bit, (and I mean a bit) in a basic same wrapper (droid droid 2, epic........ nexus one, droid x, evo) the same phones just a bump in specs. To me I like owning a phone atleast a year before upgrading to something better, though if lets say the C40, roadrunner whatever comes with a very strong processor, great hardware, and is supported completly like the pre and pixi were, Id opt to keep the phone for 2 years or so. A optimized cell phone, with strong hardware, and with support from its developer means you dont have to keep going out every 6 months to buy the same product with a extra quarter inch on the screen, and a different cassing. Just my opinion.
  14. #34  
    I think that phone sales reps would say that most people who upgrade are coming from phones that are at least 12 months old. It is tough to get someone not eligible for an upgrade to pay $500 for a phone in a store.

    In Palm-time, 12 months old IS the latest and greatest phone.

    In Android-time, 12 months is 10 models old. The new latest and greatest phones leak before the "old" phone is out.
    • 10/09 Hero
    • 11/09 Droid
    • 1/10 Nexus
    • 3/10 Desire
    • 4/10 Incredible
    • 6/10 EVO
    • 7/10 Droid X
    • 8/10 Droid 2
    • 8/10 Streak
    • 8/10 Epic

    People upgrade phones because their old phone is dying or lost, for new features, or just because they want the latest and greatest.

    Right now, it's the new features that are driving the smartphone market with recent phones like the EVO, Droid X, Droid 2, Streak, and Epic.

    Camera
    Everyone with a Facebook page wants to be able to upload a decent photo. 8MP, 3x digital zoom, double flash LEDs, and autofocus lets anyone take good photos. Nerds can play with brightness, contrast, saturation, and effects.

    HD Movie Player
    A 4" 800x480 HD screen is watchable and 32GB cards hold a lot of movies. YouTube lets you download anything. 4" is nice but have you seen HD movies on a 5" Dell Streak?

    GPS
    As smartphones cross the 4" mark with free navigation, why would you buy a Garmin?

    Real Internet
    Instead of looking around a website like you are using a periscope, on the new phones text just flows. There is no more panning back and forth. Pages no longer need to be formatted to your phone. Smartphones have grown up.

    HD Camcorder
    Current smartphones are OK but don't come close to a real HD Camcorder. Watch how different this will be in a few more generations (in a year).

    Nerds buy toys but are a fraction of the phone market. Consumers buy features.

    We used to say that in the end it was just a phone. Now it's your Facebook, camera, music, movies, Camcorder, GPS, Internet, messaging, and email.

    If you are under 30 the one thing your smartphone never does is ring.

    - Craig
    Last edited by milominderbinder; 08/17/2010 at 02:20 PM.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I'm not sure if anyone will come back. While Palm's been working on...stuff...Google and Apple have refined and matured their platforms to the point where coming back to WebOS is a considerable step backwards.
    Probably the first people to win back are the sprint employees. They've been putting up with returned Pre's, exchanges, etc for over a year.
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    #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by cobrakon View Post
    it was (is) the same in the PC upgrade market, more and more push for the latest gpu iteration or cpu model so you can get another 50-100 points on your 3D Marks score. I played that game from the first nVidia 16 chips all the way to geForce 4 (Ti4200) then I got off realizing that all my games played at 60-70 fps just fine @1024x768. Oooh but I couldn't play them at 1400x1280 or whatever.

    ...who cares? I stopped buying things that were the latest and greatest just because they were the latest and greatest. (don't get me started on the game maker conspiracy to push hw sales)
    I did the same thing till I had kids.. Now building a new rig every 4-6 months is not high up on the todo list...
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    though with this android fad, pretty much every phone since the droid has been very very similar. Just up the specs a bit, (and I mean a bit) in a basic same wrapper (droid droid 2, epic........ nexus one, droid x, evo) the same phones just a bump in specs. To me I like owning a phone atleast a year before upgrading to something better, though if lets say the C40, roadrunner whatever comes with a very strong processor, great hardware, and is supported completly like the pre and pixi were, Id opt to keep the phone for 2 years or so. A optimized cell phone, with strong hardware, and with support from its developer means you dont have to keep going out every 6 months to buy the same product with a extra quarter inch on the screen, and a different cassing. Just my opinion.
    I'd share it if that were the case for Android devices. It isn't.

    The only thing between the recent Droid phones that has been "very very similar" is 1ghz processors and Android 2.1. Aside from that, they have wildly different skins, manufacturer-provided apps, camera abilities, gaming abilities, and so on and so forth.

    Furthermore, your theory that an "optimized cell phone, with strong hardware, and with support from its developer means you dont have to keep going out every 6 months to buy the same product" doesn't apply because the number of Android users is growing exponentially. It's not the same group of people buying a Droid then buying a Droid Incredible, and then buying a Droid 2. Verizon is growing and adding phone customers beyond any other domestic carrier.

    And people don't "have" to buy new devices anyway. Droid is just as overclockable as the Palm Pre. It has much stronger developer support, and its OS has had far more features added.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by cobrakon View Post
    ...(don't get me started on the game maker conspiracy to push hw sales)
    ...and don't get me started on game software makers who stop making multi-player discs in order to get you to buy more copies to play a multi-player game

    Sorry... back on topic....

    @milo... that time-line is very interesting. Give a much different perspective on the way Android pushes equipment for the ADD crowd.
  19. #39  
    This is basically just another form of what happened in the PC market earlier this century.

    My smartphones over the two years....

    Blackberry Curve - work
    HTC Diamond - Personal
    HTC TouchPro - work
    Blackberry Curve (again) - work
    Palm Pre - personal
    HTC Hero - work
    HTC Hero - personal (two weeks)
    Samsung Moment - Work
    HTC Hero - Work
    Palm Pre - Personal
    HTC EVO - work

    I am a nut when it comes to phones...

    This feels exactly the way it did in the early 2000's with computers hitting uber high specs each month. The only difference is that instead of thousands of dollars on computers, I am maybe spending hundreds on phones.
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  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    ...Just up the specs a bit, (and I mean a bit) in a basic same wrapper (droid droid 2, epic........ nexus one, droid x, evo) the same phones just a bump in specs...
    You are right. There are so many Androids coming out, no one model is revolutionary. Each month is just another step.

    Android is like a million piranhas each taking tiny bites. A cow goes into the water and 3 minutes later all that is left is the bones.

    From the Hero in October 2009 to the EVO in June of 2010, Android chipped away a bit at a time from:

    3.2" 320x480 display, 528 MHz, 5MP Hero

    to

    4.3" 480x800 display, 1000 MHz, 8MP EVO

    That's double the pixels, double the speed, and 80% bigger screen area in 8 months.

    But that's through 10 new models.

    It's like buying a laptop. Buy the fastest CPU, most memory, biggest screen, and best apps you can reasonably afford. That will give you the best life expectancy.

    Once you buy do not torture yourself by checking back to see the new ones that came out every few weeks.

    If you are a phone nut, reconsider again in 12 months when you can upgrade and repeat the process.

    Just don't stay in the water too long.

    - Craig
    Last edited by milominderbinder; 08/17/2010 at 03:53 PM.
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