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  1. #41  
    Quote Originally Posted by dj ozone View Post
    tru but in the smartphone world just as many old contracts run out every day....bringing more customers to the table....since people buy phone once a year or two there is an neverending supply of people walking into stores to see whats available...its not like once someone chooses a phone they are locked up for life....just 2 years.....whenever HP decides to release new hardware there will be plenty of people looking for a new phone...
    Unfortunately, that's not true. Case in point: Verizon and ATT have been growing as other carriers like Sprint have been contracting. If there was a neverending supply of customers, they would all keep growing.

    There isn't. People talk about how this market is growing and growing bringing in new customers, and that's true. What is also growing are the amount of competitors for these new customers. And they're not going to settle for the pieces of the pie they have now. They all have to keep expanding or die. That has to come at SOMEBODY's expense.
  2. #42  
    Quote Originally Posted by dj ozone View Post
    those "unlocked kirf" phones are in china, mexico and india...this chart is for US marketshare....

    i dont know anyone walking around rocking a chinese clone phone do you?...face the facts son in this chart "Linux" = WebOS
    Um, what operating system do you think Android is based on? If the chart calls out Android as its own OS, don't you think they would do the same for WebOS (aka PalmOS in the chart)? Your Linux straw grasping, while clever, is also incorrect.

    Check out the Nokia N900. There's your Linux phone in the USA.
  3.    #43  
    Sprint's financials are like night and day with the EVO as the flagship phone vs the Pre. Basically, the EVO did for Sprint what everyone thought the Pre would. I don't think Sprint is going to go back to featuring a Palm as their flagship phone again anytime soon.

    In fact, without a significant customer base - they probably had a lot more Treo and Centro users available to convert to Pre than existing Pre users to convert to the next Pre - and without a significant carrier base, it's doubtful that Palm will be a major player in the smartphone field going forward.
  4. #44  
    I don't think it's that dire. If HP's manufacturing is up to the challenge, they could be one of the few high-end smartphones in recent memory with adequate supply throughout all channels on all carriers. The only other one I can think of is the Samsung Galaxy S series. Otherwise, everybody from iPhone 4 to Droid X to Evo ain't making enough units to satisfy demand.

    This particular window won't be open much longer, tho.
  5. #45  
    Quote Originally Posted by clutch1222 View Post
    I think HP has done the research... and the math. I think they know how many existing contracts are up for renewal... and how many users are not even in the smartphone market yet.... and they have a 5 to 10 year plan they are putting in place... GLOBAL.

    A company with 47,000 engineers and HP labs working on Tech to be released 15yrs down the line.... has a bigger plan than most here think.
    Where was HP smartphones in the past.... maybe waiting for the right time to get into the smartphone market. 2010.... is definitely the year to get in.
    What business school did you attend where you were taught entering a market when it's full of moneyed, established competitors throwing everything they got at it is "definitely the year to get in"? You buy stock when it's low and cool, not when it's high and hot. Similarly, the time to get in any given field is when you have a new product to introduce amongst stagnant competitors.

    That was 2007-2008. The smartphone market is anything but ideal to newcomers right now.

    They got in... and used the phrase "double down on webOS" to let the competition know... HP has finally made the decision to get into the smartphone market. Those who think it is already to late to get in to this market and compete... are wrong ,imo.
    Too late? No. But HP did not make the decision to "get in the smartphone market". They made the decision to get in the mobile device market, and it's clear which of those devices is the priority. (Hint: it's not the smartphone). They've filed for a "PalmPad" trademark as soon as they possibly could. At no point thus far have they indicated a burning hot desire to get a new WebOS phone to market ASAP.
  6.    #46  
    That's an interesting take, however, I believe most manufacturing bottlenecks for those devices come from the suppliers of components like touchscreens. Unless HP happens to manufacture its own touchscreens in large quantities, they will have to rely on the same suppliers.

    In fact, from what I have read, it would seem that a new line of smartphones would have a much harder time getting these parts. If you were an iPhone parts supplier you could pretty much take the manufacturing contract to the bank to build a factory. Palm? Not so much. HP? HP isn't immune to economic slowdowns. They are quite vulnerable to them.

    The bottom line is that nobody knows how many smartphones HP is going to sell in the next year but someone has to make a guess. They can't just bank on 25 million like Apple can. If there's a shortage of components I think the devices that are going to get built are the ones that are in definitely going to be in demand not the ones that might be in demand.
    Last edited by UntidyGuy; 08/03/2010 at 09:23 AM.
  7. #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    That's an interesting take, however, I believe most manufacturing bottlenecks for those devices come from the suppliers of components like touchscreens. Unless HP happens to manufacture its own touchscreens in large quantities, they will have to rely on the same suppliers.

    In fact, from what I have read, it would seem that a new line of smartphones would have a much harder time getting these parts. If you were an iPhone parts supplier you could pretty much take the manufacturing contract to the bank to build a factory. Palm? Not so much. HP? HP isn't immune to economic slowdowns. They are quite vulnerable to them.
    I don't mean to suggest they're immune, but I think they have the manufacturing leverage to get priority treatment...if that's what they wanted.

    Not sure it is. That's the problem.
  8. #48  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    ... I don't think Sprint is going to go back to featuring a Palm as their flagship phone again anytime soon.

    In fact, without a significant customer base - they probably had a lot more Treo and Centro users available to convert to Pre than existing Pre users to convert to the next Pre - and without a significant carrier base, it's doubtful that Palm will be a major player in the smartphone field going forward.
    very good point -- Sprint at the time had a large pool of loyal POS users aware of the Pre and wanting to upgrade -- this made Sprint the natural launch partner.

    Fairly or not the Pre has lost nearly all of Palm's old mindshare -- HP would have to market from scratch, as well as find carriers willing to collaborate genuinely, enthusiastically, in that effort.

    Probability of it happening -- sadly, very very low
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  9. #49  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    very good point -- Sprint at the time had a large pool of loyal POS users aware of the Pre and wanting to upgrade -- this made Sprint the natural launch partner.

    Fairly or not the Pre has lost nearly all of Palm's old mindshare -- HP would have to market from scratch, as well as find carriers willing to collaborate genuinely, enthusiastically, in that effort.

    Probability of it happening -- sadly, very very low
    I think any specific effort to appeal to that constituency would be a dreadful mistake. WebOS has nothing to do with PalmOS. They're not interested in SD cards or robust PIM apps or anything particularly evocative of the last go-round.

    The problem was that they not only snubbed what people liked about Palm OS, but WebOS wasn't particularly well-executed either. It's definitely the least complete, laggiest, and app-deficient of the modern platforms. That's what has to be corrected, and the carriers don't really have anything to do with it. It's up to HP's engineers.
  10.    #50  
    Even if they succeed in making webOS great, though, who's to say that's enough in today's smartphone environment? There are too many new smartphones out there from major players to do the "we're just as good as the rest." I mean, what is the definitive undeniable in-your-face reason to pick a Palm over anything else out there? Most people, here, can't even come up with a reasonable feature that Palm could come up with to differentiate a new smartphone.

    I think HP knows this. I think the CEO knows this. I don't think they are going to go all-out in this smartphone market at least not in the consumer space. I think they are aiming to participate in the smartphone market with Palm in about the same way that they have participated with the iPaq.
    Last edited by UntidyGuy; 08/03/2010 at 09:48 AM.
  11. #51  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I think any specific effort to appeal to that constituency would be a dreadful mistake. WebOS has nothing to do with PalmOS. They're not interested in SD cards or robust PIM apps or anything particularly evocative of the last go-round.

    The problem was that they not only snubbed what people liked about Palm OS, but WebOS wasn't particularly well-executed either. It's definitely the least complete, laggiest, and app-deficient of the modern platforms. That's what has to be corrected, and the carriers don't really have anything to do with it. It's up to HP's engineers.
    I don't disagree with what you're saying -- but my point was about Pre's original launch -- it had a base at Sprint that it could spring from, that they could leverage.

    (back before the Pre launch I created a very skeptical thread entitled: The Skunk at Your Picnic)
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  12. #52  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Even if they succeed in making webOS great, though, who's to say that's enough in today's smartphone environment? There are too many new smartphones out there from major players to do the "we're just as good as the rest." I mean, what is the definitive undeniable in-your-face reason to pick a Palm over anything else out there?

    I think HP knows this. I think the CEO knows this. I don't think they are going to go all-out in this smartphone market at least not in the consumer space.
    agreed

    I've believed this for awhile -- it seems after these sales and market share numbers, that this reality is sadly becoming recognized even here ...
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  13. #53  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Even if they succeed in making webOS great, though, who's to say that's enough in today's smartphone environment? There are too many new smartphones out there from major players to do the "we're just as good as the rest." I mean, what is the definitive undeniable in-your-face reason to pick a Palm over anything else out there?

    I think HP knows this. I think the CEO knows this. I don't think they are going to go all-out in this smartphone market at least not in the consumer space.
    I honestly think smartphones will be a loss leader for HP. They've been crystal clear about slate and netbook plans and have registered a trademark for that already. They've been nothing but vague about their smartphone intentions.

    They will go all out for WebOS, but not all out on smartphone devices and making them a success. Probably not worth the money it would take to make that happen.
  14. #54  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    I mean, what is the definitive undeniable in-your-face reason to pick a Palm over anything else out there?

    I think HP knows this. I think the CEO knows this. I don't think they are going to go all-out in this smartphone market at least not in the consumer space.
    I disagree. I think they are going to buil a monster of a smartphone to gain respect in that market... and combine it with other products.

    The whole package is the in your face reason to pick palm over anything else. When consumers see what HP is offering in their product line...that might make the difference.
    This could be the avg consumers rationale" if I start out with the smartphone... i can get the tablet and printer later... and have this interconnected system of devices like i saw in HP commercials. It would be cool to be able to sync data, apps, print to with all of my devices."

    All of these devices supported under one roof...
    a range of quality leading up to their envy line of laptops...lots of options.

    The concern over webOS phone being a flagship phone... is a good one. I believe HP is leveraged heavily with many if not all of the worlds carriers. I think Phil mentioned that HP has a big portion of the SMS ( im heading out to work.. no time to research). I think the relationship HP already has with these carriers... will play a big part in how webOS gets launched and supported . It is a concern that most of them seem to be picking a phone as their flagship... we shall see how HP penetrates that.

    I find the opinions interesting on this thread. What i find lame, is when users only pick out comments to discredit. They are not even dis agreeing, just pulling out a couple of comments from a complete post... and discrediting them, without even commenting on the idea of the post they pick apart.

    We all have different posting styles...and that is what makes these threads interesting... but that is just lame imo.
  15. #55  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I don't think it's that dire. If HP's manufacturing is up to the challenge, they could be one of the few high-end smartphones in recent memory with adequate supply throughout all channels on all carriers. The only other one I can think of is the Samsung Galaxy S series. Otherwise, everybody from iPhone 4 to Droid X to Evo ain't making enough units to satisfy demand.

    This particular window won't be open much longer, tho.
    I agree...solid point.
  16. #56  
    Quote Originally Posted by clutch1222 View Post
    I disagree. I think they are going to buil a monster of a smartphone to gain respect in that market... and combine it with other products.

    The whole package is the in your face reason to pick palm over anything else. When consumers see what HP is offering in their product line...that might make the difference.
    This could be the avg consumers rationale" if I start out with the smartphone... i can get the tablet and printer later... and have this interconnected system of devices like i saw in HP commercials. It would be cool to be able to sync data, apps, print to with all of my devices."
    You are, of course, aware that Apple already does this except without printers, right? That the majority of customers for whom this is a priority have already chosen Apple or will do so presently, right?
  17. #57  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    You are, of course, aware that Apple already does this except without printers, right? That the majority of customers for whom this is a priority have already chosen Apple or will do so presently, right?
    Apple does this with iphone and ipad right?

    Its a limited version of what HP has planned... IMO.

    HP scale in consumer and enterprise is what will be the difference... and they plan on connecting more than just tablets and phones
  18. #58  
    Quote Originally Posted by clutch1222 View Post
    Apple does this with iphone and ipad right?

    Its a limited version of what HP has planned... IMO.

    HP scale in consumer and enterprise is what will be the difference... and they plan on connecting more than just tablets and phones
    Um...didn't you forget iTunes, the most popular media management software in the world - currently existing on tens of millions of PCs - along with the forthcoming relaunch of Apple TV with cloud storage and possible TiVO integration?

    I think you mean that HP has a limited version of what Apple has planned when it comes to consumers. As far as enterprise, HP is using a Windows 7 "Slate 500" there, no?
  19.    #59  
    I see no basis for the idea that HP is going to try to out spec the competition in the smartphone market. It doesn't even make any sense to say that the whole package is the outstanding feature that will draw people to Palm smartphones. That's not the way that people buy gadgets. That's why the best commercials, say, for the iPhone put one feature out there and hammer it over and over again. Multitasking, multitasking, multitasking, Face-time, Face-time, Face-time.

    Do you really think that HP has any leverage with the carriers given that they have no viable products? We supply most of your routing equipment so have your employees push our smartphones or...what? Stuff is going to mysteriously start breaking down? Our repair crews will just take their time?

    I think what we are going to see from HP is a serviceable generic smartphone that works kind of like a 2nd rate Blackberry. I don't see much benefit in consumer marketing. Mostly, I think they are going to try to bundle these phones into enterprise contracts.
  20. #60  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    Um, what operating system do you think Android is based on? If the chart calls out Android as its own OS, don't you think they would do the same for WebOS (aka PalmOS in the chart)? Your Linux straw grasping, while clever, is also incorrect.

    Check out the Nokia N900. There's your Linux phone in the USA.
    Nokia N900??....get real Palm Pre and Pixi sold waaaaay more than Nokia N900 how could that phone get 3% of the US market...

    So now i get what the "Linux" stands for on the dam chart....Its a combination of linux based phones with the vast majority of them being WebOS...Thanks all who posted here im learning alot from you guys!!

    Bottom line is Palm is still in the game....HP removed virtually all the pressure from palm because now they dont have to rush to release hardware or die....with this whole HP deal Palm is guaranteed success because they only have to one thing: Strap WebOS onto the cash cow that is HP Printers and Ink Cartridges....once they do that and they get the HP Printer money rolling in Palm will have all the resources they ever need to play around in the smartphone market...


    Palm has an excellent wide open future when you think in 5-10 year terms....alot of people here are shortsighted there is something called vision you know!
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