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  1.    #1  
    Hi all,

    FYI.

    Take care,

    Jay


    Apple ponders iPad cannibalization of PCsby Brooke CrothersJuly 20, 2010 8:43 PM PDT

    Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said Tuesday that the iPad market is "very big" and speculated about cannibalization of PCs, while two market research firms upped their forecasts for tablet shipments in 2010.

    As iPad continues to sell briskly, will it take a chunk out of PC sales?
    During Apple's third-quarter earnings conference call Tuesday, Cook mused about the continuing strong sales of the iPad and its potential to eat into PC sales. The iPad "is not following typical early adopter curve and taking a long time to cross into the mainstream...We are absolutely selling every unit (iPad) that we can make," Cook said.

    Cook continued. "Our guts tell us that this market is very big...if it turns out that iPad cannibalizes PCs, that's fantastic for us because there is a lot of PCs to cannibalize," he said.

    This outlook varies somewhat with that of Intel, which supplies processors for the vast majority of PCs sold worldwide and sees tablets as merely additive. "I think this is an additive category of computing much like Netbooks were an additive category," Intel Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith said last week during Intel's earnings conference call. Additive implies that there is little if any cannibalization of PCs.

    Cook also explained how the iPad may have a positive effect on Mac sales. "Historically...iPod created a halo for the Mac and, in fact, as the iPod volumes took off you (saw) a dramatic change in Mac sales. So, could that happen on iPhone and iPad? We'll see," he said. "The Mac has outgrown the market 17 straight quarters. However, the Mac share is still low, so there is still an enormous opportunity for the Mac to grow. And certainly the more customers we can introduce to Apple through iPad, and through iPhone, and through iPod, you would think that there might be some synergy with the Mac there."

    Meanwhile two market researchers on Tuesday revised their forecasts upward for tablets, of which the lion's share in 2010 is Apple's iPad. ABI Research said it "has revisited its forecasts, almost tripling the original estimate to reach about 11 million tablets expected to ship by the end of 2010...based both on the broader availability of the iPad."

    iSuppli, another market research firm, was even more bullish. "Amid indications that Apple Inc. is ratcheting up its iPad production targets to meet booming demand, iSuppli Corp. is ratcheting up its shipment forecast as well. iSuppli now predicts Apple will ship 12.9 million iPads in 2010, an increase from the previous forecast issued April 2nd of 7.1 million units."

    The only thing crimping iPad shipments is limited production capacity, iSuppli said. "iSuppli believes that the only limitation on iPad sales now is production--and not demand," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli.

    Updated at 11:25 p.m. PDT adding Cook's discussion of iPod, iPad and Mac sales.
    Please Support Research into Fibromyalgia, Chronic Pain and Spinal Injuries. If You Suffer from These, Consider Joining or Better Yet Forming a Support Group. No One Should Suffer from the Burden of Chronic Pain, Jay M. S. Founder, Leesburg Fibromyalgia/Resources Group
  2. #2  
    I think netbooks more, since they're used for lightweight activities without the bulk of a full laptop. But you can't run any intensive programs on the iPad, so PCs will not be going anywhere for those who need to use such programs. Also with no standard USB and no expansion options, that's also a hindrance.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  3. ogeneo's Avatar
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    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    I think netbooks more, since they're used for lightweight activities without the bulk of a full laptop. But you can't run any intensive programs on the iPad, so PCs will not be going anywhere for those who need to use such programs. Also with no standard USB and no expansion options, that's also a hindrance.
    Tell that to the 3.27 million buyers

    Seriously, that is pretty much the same argument people have been using since day 1.

    There is so much you can do on an iPad it's not funny, there are some fantastic apps out there and more coming all the time.

    Edit Office docs? Several
    Access macs/pcs remotely? Several
    Transfer photos to iPad? Several
    Transfer docs to local storage? Several

    Perhaps I haven't come across the shortcomings yet? Dunno, but I love my iPad!
  4. #4  
    Now build your website and make the graphics for it on your iPad. Record, edit and/or rip music on your iPad. Upload your photos directly from your camera for editing and while you're at it, connect your camcorder to get the video from that. Then connect your printer. Watch a DVD. Then try to rip it. Etc. etc, etc.

    However, while out or on the road, the iPad is fine if you don't need to do those things. I did say before that this is good for traveling since laptops are a huge travel risk.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  5. ogeneo's Avatar
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    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    Now build your website and make the graphics for it on your iPad. Record, edit and/or rip music on your iPad. Upload your photos directly from your camera for editing and while you're at it, connect your camcorder to get the video from that. Then connect your printer. Watch a DVD. Then try to rip it. Etc. etc, etc.
    I think of my iPad as a companion for my Mac or Office PC, not a replacement. Same goes for a Netbook, have you ever tried editing a multi-column spreadsheet on a Netbook? Not a good experience at all.

    A Netbook is no desktop replacement

    And you can upload your pics and video from your camera and edit
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by ilovedessert View Post
    Hi all,

    .
    right below is a similar thread --

    why must you always create new threads rather than keep relevant informaton topics together ????

    http://discussion.treocentral.com/ot...-forecast.html
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  7. #7  
    [QUOTE=BARYE;2567689]right below is a similar thread --

    why must you always create new threads rather than keep relevant informaton topics together ????

    [url]

    One is about iPad production, shortages and sales. The other article is about tablets displacing PCs. Different subjects.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by genearch View Post
    I think of my iPad as a companion for my Mac or Office PC, not a replacement. Same goes for a Netbook, have you ever tried editing a multi-column spreadsheet on a Netbook? Not a good experience at all.

    A Netbook is no desktop replacement

    And you can upload your pics and video from your camera and edit
    But that's what Cook is saying. But in order to steal sales from PCs, the iPad has to be viewed as a replacement, which it isn't. Unless all you do it surf, use digital media and check email. But you still need the PC to upload files, unless you're going to download everything from iTunes. But even activation needs a PC. Then on top of that, Apple has never done firmware updates over the air, so you still need a PC.

    The reason I say netbooks are likely going to be cannibalized more than full PCs is they are often used on the road for lightweight activities like the iPad, but the iPad is "more fun", let's say.

    And if you can upload directly from the camera to the iPad, then you likely have to buy a special cable or attachment. There's no standard USB port on the iPad.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  9. #9  
    [QUOTE=SFHandyman;2567706]
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    right below is a similar thread --

    why must you always create new threads rather than keep relevant informaton topics together ????

    [url]

    One is about iPad production, shortages and sales. The other article is about tablets displacing PCs. Different subjects.
    TOO many threads are created for no valid reason in this forum -- similar topics should be in relevant threads -- they do not have to be exact !!
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    But you can't run any intensive programs on the iPad, so PCs will not be going anywhere for those who need to use such programs. Also with no standard USB and no expansion options, that's also a hindrance.

    But this, and what you describe in later posts is a very small subset of PC owners.

    PCs are great, but most people have waaaaay more computing power than they need.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    Now build your website and make the graphics for it on your iPad. Record, edit and/or rip music on your iPad. Upload your photos directly from your camera for editing and while you're at it, connect your camcorder to get the video from that. Then connect your printer. Watch a DVD. Then try to rip it. Etc. etc, etc.

    However, while out or on the road, the iPad is fine if you don't need to do those things. I did say before that this is good for traveling since laptops are a huge travel risk.
    There was a point when regular computers couldn't even do these things, but now they can. If the iPad continues to sell, it will get more powerful over the next few years and the possibility to perform these tasks will become more of a reality.
    Palm Vx -> Treo 600 -> Treo 700p -> Centro -> Pre (Launch Phone 06/06/09) -> AT&T Pre Plus with Sprint EVDO swap -> Samsung Epic 4G w/ Froyo
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    But that's what Cook is saying. But in order to steal sales from PCs, the iPad has to be viewed as a replacement, which it isn't. Unless all you do it surf, use digital media and check email. But you still need the PC to upload files, unless you're going to download everything from iTunes. But even activation needs a PC. Then on top of that, Apple has never done firmware updates over the air, so you still need a PC.

    The reason I say netbooks are likely going to be cannibalized more than full PCs is they are often used on the road for lightweight activities like the iPad, but the iPad is "more fun", let's say.

    And if you can upload directly from the camera to the iPad, then you likely have to buy a special cable or attachment. There's no standard USB port on the iPad.

    Im not sure Cook meant it can replace a computer for everyone. But, I don't think most people Create websites on their computers either.

    My iPad cannot replace my laptop, but it did replace my Netbook (and Kindle).
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by finngirl View Post
    But this, and what you describe in later posts is a very small subset of PC owners.

    PCs are great, but most people have waaaaay more computing power than they need.

    I'm pretty sure lots of people still need the space, USB ports and optical drives. Even if you get an add-on optical drive or hard drive, you still need the USB ports.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  14. #14  
    ipad will need to be alot more useful if they are ever gonna cannibalize PCs. Not to say they are useless, but despite they girth of apps, there are billions more PC apps, and they are FREE!

    Honestly, until the general public can pirate music, movies, and full sized video games to the ipad, it'll always be a just compliment to the PC.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    I'm pretty sure lots of people still need the space, USB ports and optical drives. Even if you get an add-on optical drive or hard drive, you still need the USB ports.
    Not sure I agree with that.

    I could ask 15 people in my office what they do with their home computer and 13 of them would say they do no more than surf and email. And while some might still be plugged into their printer, most either have, or their next printer will be, wireless.
  16. #16  
    The only thing ipads are cannibalizing is ipods & ereaders. But then again, its just a big ipod touch.

    Maybe this will change down the road but it'll be awhile.
  17. ogeneo's Avatar
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    #17  
    Consider this... Apple has sold 3.27M iPads (up to June 27)

    How many of those would have been a NetBook or a Desktop had the iPad not existed?

    I'd venture to say a huge percentage.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post

    The only thing ipads are cannibalizing is ipods & ereaders. But then again, its just a big ipod touch.

    Maybe this will change down the road but it'll be awhile.
    I'd say you're half right -- eReaders are likely dead unless they can be almost given away.

    iPods are a totally different product niche -- a pocketable mobile entertainment device. iPads are used statically (even though its a form of mobile).

    Netbooks are certainly being hurt -- which is why every OEM is gearing up to make their own version of the ipad.

    But as was said in the other iPad thread -- Apple's success with the iPad is not based on simply hardware -- its the overall value that Apple has created within its iPad's ecosystem, the entirety of its user experience: interface, media integration, Apps, power/speed/weight, and cost.

    Disparate OEMs are sadly going to have a hard time catching up no matter what they produce.


    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post

    extraordinary.

    If I'm HP, Dell, Asus, Lenovo etc. -- I'm sheeting bricks right now when I hear those numbers.

    If Apple gets such market dominance as now seems probable, it will be hard to create a slate that will have sufficient consumer popularity to compete on the high end with Apple -- which means they'll be fighting with each other over the scraps of the low end, a fight based in large part, on price -- and only secondarily on features, apps, and interface.

    Normally this would be a situation where the Windows UI would be at an advantage. OEMs would usually be falling over themselves to get a version of M$'s OS like they did with netbooks, abandoning Linux (because of consumer demand).

    Some will definitely go w/"Slate" Windows -- but others besides HP will not.

    By offering a fairly powerful and yet reasonably affordable ipad, Apple put OEMs under a lot of cost/feature/power pressures. The "Slate" environment is distinct from laptops and normal computers. To save $20-40 OEMs are going to be much more willing to experiment with non-Windows UIs. Apple has shown that users are not getting the ipad to do conventional computer tasks (where Windows is at a distinct advantage). In such a context, UI environments like Android and others based on Linux created by small agile developers, could very well gain considerable market share on OEM Slates.

    This could bring about the first major computer segment evolution not largely dependent on M$, in decades.

    (I remain unhappy that Jobs has succeeded in creating a Walled Garden, one that is completely dependent on his consent for applications, where memory/storage capacity is locked, and where the device has no USB ports...)

    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post

    Great post, Barye, but I think the biggest advantage of the iPad, and the one that nobody really has the tools to fight with right now, is Apple's partnerships and ecosystem.

    The iPad is a nifty device on its own, but it lives and breathes based on how much media you consume with it. Apple makes it easy on day one by giving you official comic book apps, e-Reading apps, and iTunes store for all of your music, movie, and TV needs.

    What other tablet - Windows, Android, or WebOS - is going to have all of these things on the device and easily available to users on day one?

    What's even more brilliant is that this has a loyalty and multiplier effect. As people buy this media formatted for this device, they are less likely to leave. They are also more likely to show it off to friends, which makes them want it, which makes them buy it, which makes them less likely to leave....
    Last edited by BARYE; 07/21/2010 at 09:32 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by finngirl View Post
    Not sure I agree with that.

    I could ask 15 people in my office what they do with their home computer and 13 of them would say they do no more than surf and email. And while some might still be plugged into their printer, most either have, or their next printer will be, wireless.
    And where do they keep all their digital files? 64GB ain't , excuse my language. There are 1TB drives out now and they cannot be used by the iPad.

    1. Because the iPad, like all "i" products, doesn't allow simple disk usage. I was shocked to see the 5th gen. Nano actually allows limited disk use to remove videos taken. But I'm betting you cannot simply just drag files over to the Nano unless you're in iTunes. The folder structure doesn't show up.

    2. There's no way to connect an external drive anyway. Once again, no USB ports.

    The iPad as it is currently, cannot and will not truly replace PCs, plain and simple. Except for people who indeed barely do anything.

    P.S. Oh yes, can't burn a CD or DVD either from an iPad.
    Last edited by The Phone Diva; 07/21/2010 at 11:03 PM. Reason: Misspellings, lol.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  20. #20  
    I don't think most people have ever even burned a CD much less a DVD.

    I get what you're saying, and i suppose by virtue of being "here" on this site its clear we are all more integrated with a full on home computer usage (as opposed to work PCs, where much of people's light computing happens) - but most people just don't use computers this way.

    they just read stuff.
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