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  1.    #1  
    1. Will the Zaurus succede and take the industry by surprise or will it be an overpriced Unix/Linux geek toy?

    2. Will the Visor line die or will Handspring finally update it after OS5 comes out?

    3. Will the Treo succede or be a flop that Handspring will try to forget about?

    4. Will PocketPC continue to do okay or will it start to die a silent death?

    5. How do you think Handera will do?

    6. Will Palm fail in the hardware buisness and just dedicate itself to the OS or is the Palm name enough to keep the devices selling?
  2. #2  
    1. I think the Zaurus will do okay, but not much better than that.

    2. Visor line will receive a much needed update as soon as OS5 comes out, Handspring will begin to innovate again, and again get the drop on Palm with a superior OS5 handheld.

    3. Treo will do ok, while expensive, people will love its thumb keyboard and small form factor.

    4. PocketPC will continue to gain in the market as low end PPC devices become cheaper and cheaper (EM 500, iPAQ 36xx) and external memory prices continue to drop.

    5. Handera will hopefully come out with a color device and a reasonable price and become a very serious player in the PDA world.

    6. Palm will continue to do at least so-so, corporations will continue to snatch up their units like hotcakes.
  3. #3  
    1. Zaurus will sell but it wont make that much of a dent in the market. Only the geekazoids will get it and use it..Just like desktop PCs that run Linux.

    2. I agree with b1lanceman. I think Handspring's next Visor release will be a bang. They will have innovative wiggle room with OS 5 at their disposal.

    3. The Treo will do very well. People who generally had no interest in a PDA will get this one. Lots of Visor users (liek myself) will make the switch over.

    4. PocketPC will be PocketPC. Apparently there are 27 PocketPC manufacturers out there (according to a cnet article that i read yeasterday). With that amount of manufacturers one woul dhave expected them to have a much bigger market share. OS 5 will keep PocketPC at bay.

    5. Handera has a great PDA but just doesn't have the marketing muscle that Handspring, Sony and others have. There sales largely depends on word and mouth. It will continue to make PDAs that only a niche segment (mostly doctors and nurses) will buy. I think that there color unit will be good.

    6. Palm will continue to make decent handhelds. Their licences will continue to make handhelds that are much better, more innovative and more appealing than theirs. The Palm brand is sitll big in corporate America and will continue to be so.
  4. #4  
    I already posted my "predictions" some time ago in another thread. But, I'll repeat myself anyway...

    PalmOS:

    2002 will be a recovery year for Palm. It will struggle throughout the first quarter, but will make a strong rebound by Q2 carried on the wings of new innovative devices (such as the i705), and improved functionality. Further, Palm will settle on one device to occupy the low and mid-range segment of the market. No more M100/105/125. Just one unit. The high-end will see the most makeover, with the M505 being replaced by a high resolution device that will compete against the Sony Clie 600/615C. All of these devices will sell @ $399. Palm will also bite the bullet and produce a multimedia capable device, finally.

    The transition to OS 5 will not be quite as smooth as Palm users may have wanted, but it will be successful. The next generation OS will draw a wave of new developers (not just Palm developers) to the new platform. Look for incredible new applications (and Games) to rock your world!

    Palm will begin developing and licensing operating systems for a wide array of devices (other than PDAs) ranging from MP3 players to digital cameras to Set Top boxes.

    Scenario B: If Palm doesn’t recover financially from last years missteps and Carl Yankowski’s rudderless leadership, the company will be acquired by Sony or Apple (most likely Sony).

    Sony mops the floor with PocketPC

    After releasing a throng of the innovative multimedia rich PDAs, at much lower prices, PocketPCs marketshare (in the consumer space) will slowly be eaten away by Sony. A robust new line of Clies introduced in the spring, will reinvigorate the Palm platform and continue to draw power users, and would be defectors, away from PocketPC.

    Handspring goes bankrupt:

    The Treo will sell fairly well among PDA enthusiasts, but is not the high volume mover than Hawkins had hoped. The company will continue to bleed red ink, and struggle to become profitable, but ultimately fails. This combined with the flop of Springboard, begins to erode confidence in the handheld maker. By Q4 of 2002, or Q1 of 2003, Handspring finally gives up the ghost. Handspring either goes bankrupt, or is acquired by a mobile phone maker such as Samsung or Nokia, for its intellectual property. Hawkins goes back to Palm to head the hardware division.

    Scenario B: Handspring, despite its cash problems and lackluster products, receives a heavy infusion of cash from another entity. In which case, the company floats along, but with a new focus.

    PocketPC:

    2002 will be a year of decline for PocketPC, thanks in part to the high price of PPC handhelds, which seems to be spiraling out of control. And by the mediocre spending habits of consumers and business during the souring economy. Consumer electronics retailers such as Best Buy and Circuit City will begin dropping some models from their inventory as lower priced (and more popular) color PalmOS devices occupy the shelves. PocketPC will fall further and further into niche status, and will become strictly a corporate appliance.

    Casio leaves the field

    With an array of innovative devices from new licensees such as Toshiba and NEC, Casio will be squeezed out. By Q4, Casio will cease production of PPC devices, and leave the PDA space altogether.

    IPaq continues to whoop ***!

    Despite all the new cool PPC gadgets hitting the market, the iPaq will continue to be the leader among PocketPCs, followed closely by the Jornada. Toshiba and NEC will grab the number 3 spot in relative proximity.

    Cell phones, the dark horse

    Cell phones will begin to give PDAs a run for their money in 2002. By adding color displays, multimedia rich features, and wireless web access, IM, and email on the go, cell phones will get the jump on PDAs and become the mobile device of choice among consumers. PDAs will slowly fall into niche status, but will continue to grow at a healthy rate
  5. #5  
    Foo Fighter I find it hilarious that you think that Handspring will go bankrupt. Then again you predicted that the PPC would take the world by storm just ebfore you got your Journada almost two years ago (boy time flies).

    The Treo will do very well...ESPECIALLY among folks that never even considered getting a PDA before.
  6. #6  
    Originally posted by yardie
    Foo Fighter I find it hilarious that you think that Handspring will go bankrupt.
    Have you looked at their financials? They are a mess. And worst of all they have NEVER turned a profit! In fact, they have been losing money rather vigorously. How do you expect them to stay in business without profits or growth. Their market share has continued to shrink from its high of 25% to somewhere around 14% (last time I checked). Not exactly a recipe for success.

    The dot com implosion is proof of one constant: NO PROFITS....NO BUSINESS. If Handspring can prove to me they CAN become profitable, I will change my opinion. As it stands now, I've seen nothing but false promises, cash burn, and mediocre products that failed to take the market by storm. Let's see...how many times has Donna Dubinsky projected when her company would be profitable? She even said the Visor Edge would carry them to profitability, but that never happened.

    Will Handspring go bankrupt? Only time will tell, but they are off to a good start. You obviously like HS, so you think they will succeed. I have no ill will towards the company, but I tend to look at them from a business angle rather than through the eyes of a PDA enthusiast. I've seen too many dot bombs with similar portfolios go under to ignore the possibility that Hawkins company (and products) could fail. It can happen.

    Then again you predicted that the PPC would take the world by storm just before you got your Journada almost two years ago (boy time flies).
    Oh, I'd say PocketPC is a dangerous threat to Palm. There is no question that PocketPC is growing, and is establishing itself. Palm made the mistake of writing Microsoft off. Now they are struggling to get an OS out the door that can save them from PocketPC. I think Palm is going to succeed in building a "PocketPC killer", but I don't feel a bit sorry for them. They got themselves into this hole with their own arrogance and lack of vision.

    And I hit the nail on the head when I said that Palm's lack of innovation and simplicity angle would backfire on them, which it did BIG TIME. At the end of 2000, I said 2001 would be a bad year for the PalmOS sector because there were TOO MANY similar devices hitting the market that offered no significant advantage over previous models. Was I right? Just look at the bloodbath in price slashing that took place, and tell me I was wrong. Consumers stopped buying $400 monochrome organizers. Not simply because of the economy, but because they were uninterested. Both Palm and Handspring learned too late that the market for high-end grayscale devices is gone forever. It's dead..stabbed...buried. From this day forward, any new standalone PDA with a b/w display should not sell for over $199. After that, consumers start looking for more compelling features such as color, or wireless connectivity.

    The Treo will do very well...ESPECIALLY among folks that never even considered getting a PDA before.
    People who haven't considered a PDA before will most likely go with a cell phone. I still think the Treo is too expensive for the masses. $299 is the sweet spot for consumers when it comes to PDAs and mobile phones.
    Last edited by foo fighter; 01/10/2002 at 12:26 PM.
  7. #7  
    Originally posted by foo fighter

    Have you looked at their financials? They are a mess. And worst of all they have NEVER turned a profit! In fact, they have been losing money rather vigorously. How do you expect them to stay in business without profits or growth. Their market share has continued to shrink from its high of 25% to somewhere around 14% (last time I checked). Not exactly a recipe for success.

    The dot com implosion is proof of one constant: NO PROFITS....NO BUSINESS. If Handspring can prove to me they CAN become profitable, I will change my opinion. As it stands now, I've seen nothing but false promises, cash burn, and mediocre products that failed to take the market by storm. Let's see...how many times has Donna Dubinsky projected when her company would be profitable? She even said the Visor Edge would carry them to profitability, but that never happened.
    Well, it's not too uncommon for a startup to lose money for it's first 5 years. The big difference that I saw with the dot-coms was how much money they burned, and how quickly they burned through it. As far as Donna's comments on the Edge go, I chalk that up to typical Sales/Marketing hype.

    The biggest problem I see with Handspring is that they have an evangelist (Jeff) heading the company. Evangelist's are great, and every company needs them to push the company into new territory. However the danger comes in when that enthusiasm is unbridled by decent analysis of a product's business case, and from what I've seen this is the case with Handspring. This will eventually lead to Handspring's downfall if it's not put in check quickly.
    It's gotta be weather balloons. It's always weather balloons. Big, fiery, exploding weather balloons.
    -- ComaVN (from Slashdot)
  8. #8  
    Originally posted by sowens

    Well, it's not too uncommon for a startup to lose money for it's first 5 years. The big difference that I saw with the dot-coms was how much money they burned, and how quickly they burned through it.
    That's true, but given the competitive environment Handspring is playing in, the pressure to perform is monumental. Sooner or later, Handspring will have to start moving into the (+) signs, or they will lose any hope of ever achieving profitability.

    As far as Donna's comments on the Edge go, I chalk that up to typical Sales/Marketing hype.
    Yes, but these failed projections end up costing the company its credibility. Any time a company *repeatedly* doesn't meet its own expectations, it loses confidence.

    The biggest problem I see with Handspring is that they have an evangelist (Jeff) heading the company. Evangelist's are great, and every company needs them to push the company into new territory. However the danger comes in when that enthusiasm is unbridled by decent analysis of a product's business case, and from what I've seen this is the case with Handspring. This will eventually lead to Handspring's downfall if it's not put in check quickly.
    What really aggravates me is Hawkins over-confidence in his products and philosophy. He really thinks he understands this market, even when the market says otherwise. He has misgauged consumer demand repeatedly: Springboard is dead, the Edge was a flop, Prism sales sank. Yet in spite of this, he continues to preach the gospel according to Jeff. He still believes that higher resolution displays are unnecessary. That color is just a luxury, and that consumers don't want new features. Now he can barely move inventory. Over the holiday shopping season, Handspring's sales increased by less than 9%.

    It also told another story. In spite of explosive sales in digital cameras, DVD players, Camcorders, Digital Video Recorders, set-top boxes, PDA sales were relatively flat. I'm betting that consumers no longer see the value in them, thanks in part to Palm's lack of innovation with the OS. No new functionality...No new sales.
  9. #9  
    Just got back from CES...be on the look out for the Samsung Nexio. It's a Windows CE device (I'm a big fan of Palm OS, but this impressed me!) with a 5" 800x480 screen and a CDMA phone. Sort of between a PDA and a laptop. Not as small as your standard PDA, but very functional. It will even function as a thin client using Citrix, which means you can basically operate your desktop from a remote location with the proper setup.

    Below is a link, but the picture does not do the screen justice.

    http://www.infosync.no/show.php?id=1310&page=1
  10. #10  
    A few things I would like to say. First I think the Treo will explode with sales at first then die real quick. Way too much hype. The funny thing is that it hasn't come from handspring. My boss even asked me about the treo and he doesn't know anything about computers or handhelds. I am guessing he found the information in the wall street journal.

    Next I think that handspring's devices are the most expandable and compatible. People complaign that they havn't changed the design, well it makes the product backwards compatible, something sony did in another product line(playstation). What are the big benefits of sony? Memory expansion uh what only 1 type? Mp3s well you have 2 choices in visor(if you include ebay). What about 802.11b where is sony's? Bluetooth, not around yet. Wireless internet, gps, thumbkeyboards,game controller ect. Do I have to worry about if my programs are hires compatible?

    You think that after saying all that that I hate the sony product. Well I don't, I really want a clie. It kicks **** in color, and can be seen indoors and out. But it also costs more than my paycheck. Yes I am a poor student.
  11. #11  
    Originally posted by foo fighter

    What really aggravates me is Hawkins over-confidence in his products and philosophy. He really thinks he understands this market, even when the market says otherwise. He has misgauged consumer demand repeatedly: Springboard is dead, the Edge was a flop, Prism sales sank. Yet in spite of this, he continues to preach the gospel according to Jeff. He still believes that higher resolution displays are unnecessary. That color is just a luxury, and that consumers don't want new features. Now he can barely move inventory. Over the holiday shopping season, Handspring's sales increased by less than 9%.
    Heh, that's basically my definition of an evangelist.
    It's gotta be weather balloons. It's always weather balloons. Big, fiery, exploding weather balloons.
    -- ComaVN (from Slashdot)
  12. #12  
    Foo
    Sony mops the floor with PocketPC
    I would like to believe Foo's comments about Sony trouncing PPC. But you did not take into account new technologies like the Xscale arcitecture. The chips have high clock speeds and power reqs less than the Dragonball. This and other technologies will allow PPCs to get smaller and faster along with Palm OS devices, so I doubt they will go away. I do think the the two sides will become more and more mutually exclusive in their customer bases, with fewer crossover stories.

    Also:

    - Sony's influence will guarantee the continued viability Palm OS.

    - Handspring will abandon all of its PDA-only products, spurred on by the success of the Treo line, (After the $150 bleeding-edger surcharge is dropped) and the influence of telecom investors like Broadcom.

    - Palm Inc. hardware will remain the choice of mainstream business cusotmers for at least 18 more mos.

    - The new Palm OS subsidirary of Palm Inc. will agessivley seek new licencees, and we may have several new under $150 "super entry level" devices from, say, Korean manufacturers
    That IS a Palm III form-factor in my pocket, AND I'm happy to see you.
  13. #13  
    Well, what do you know! According to PDABuzz, I was RIGHT!!

    Who's yo daddy?
    That IS a Palm III form-factor in my pocket, AND I'm happy to see you.
  14. #14  
    Originally posted by Alslayer
    Wireless internet, gps, thumbkeyboards,game controller etc. Do I have to worry about if my programs are hires compatible?
    If you track Clie market closely, you will find they already have all these---wireless internet(though it's only for one of their model), gps, thumb keyboard(from Targus), and game controller. It's just the retail channel is not as wide spread as Visor accessories. And no, you don't have to worry about hires compatibility. You can use both on a Clie. With hires, good. If not, it's still ok. It looks like you have never use a Clie before. No wonder you have so many misunderstandings.
  15. #15  
    Handspring's a great company and they have great ideas, they just came too late, and they can't match the other people out there. All over the place, the guy who's better, still doesn't win. Because, no one knows about them and/or because people don't care. Handspring's products are better than Palm's. But Palm still wins, everyone knows about Palm, and they were cheaper for sometime. Now Handspring and Palm are gettin slaughtered by Sony. You can feel the fear in Palm and Handspring. They've both shown it. Palm sent out that stupid email "All we can say is that the newest Palm handheld is coming. Very soon. Stay tuned for more details. " Handspring is pulling out of the PDA market all together, they know they can't compete. They're going into the "Communicator" market. If Palm fails on their upcoming line of new PDAs, they're finished. Sony will take over and come in for the kill. Sony just can't be matched...

    I think that's why it took so long for Sony to release the 710 after the S300. They probably already designed everything they got now, and we waiting to come out and make a big killing. Handspring was better than Palm, but Palm was winning. Now Sony is better than them both, and will be winning. As for Pocket PC, you never know, if PalmOS doesn't get into the enterprise and business market well, they may be able to take that over. But the consumer market will be ruled by PalmOS and Sony
    nelson.hsieh
    good artists copy, great artists steal. . .
  16. #16  
    Originally posted by AzNCoMpUtAnErD
    As for Pocket PC, you never know, if PalmOS doesn't get into the enterprise and business market well, they may be able to take that over. But the consumer market will be ruled by PalmOS and Sony
    PocketPC could begin making serious inroads in the consumer market if the hardware weren't so damned expensive. Price is really what holds PPC back. Sony seems to understand the market a little better than Microsoft.
  17.    #17  
    [Rant]
    IMO Sony Sucks for everything but TVs and Computer Moniters. My mom has a Vaio and it is constantly being sent in for repair because of manufacturer defects...and someone always has to spend 2+ hours on tech support before they'll authorize a replacement even though every time we know it is a replacement. It even mentions a part fix on the recipt every time we get it back.
    [/Rant]

    If Sony takes the Palm OS handheld market I will be quick to move to Zaurus/PPC.
  18. wshwe's Avatar
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    #18  
    1. The Zarus will sell poorly in the US. Most people will be scared off by the price tag and the fact that it's not running the Palm OS or Pocket PC OS. In addition, I doubt that the Zarus will be widely available in retail stores, where most individuals buy their PDAs. For the same price, one can purchase the Palm M505 or Sony Clie PEG-N710C.

    2. By this time next year, HandSpring will have ceased manufacturering Visors. Why update a product line that looses $$$ on every unit going out the door! There's little, if any money to be made selling stock handhelds. PDAs have become commodity products.

    3. The Treo will be successful, but how successful will depend on how quickly they can bring color and CDMA versions to market. Personally, I only need color to play games and view photos. I'll gladly trade the longer battery life of monochrome for color any day. As for CDMA, I'm a loyal AT&T Wireless customer. GSM rules! It's significantly cheaper to errect a GSM network vs. CDMA. Designing good cell phones isn't rocket science. HandSpring is more than capable of designing devices with good mobile capability.

    4. Pocket PCs won't set any sales records, but will do nicely at the high end. What MS could use are Pocket PCs with built-in wireless capability.

    5. Handera is a niche player. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Handera has zero retail presence. Corporate IT departments will be reluctant to recommend PDAs from small companies like Handera.

    6. The Palm hardware company will be out of business in 2 years. Palm's "Blackberry Killer" will be vastly overshadowed by the Treo. The software operation will just get by and will pose a tempting takeover target.
  19. #19  
    Originally posted by foo fighter
    PocketPC could begin making serious inroads in the consumer market if the hardware weren't so damned expensive. Price is really what holds PPC back. Sony seems to understand the market a little better than Microsoft.
    Yea, price, size, and consumers don't need so many darn features! If everyone had a handheld, doesn't matter the features, then we wouldnt need paper to exchange contact info, or appointment scheduling, hehe, notes in class....hahaha...Who cares about color, MP3, and all that junk. If everyone just has the basic capabilities, we could all collaborate much easier! PPC will never be able to do that...Plus they're units are so darn ugly...They look like some weird ugly girl walking around, while the edge and clies look like cute freshmen
    nelson.hsieh
    good artists copy, great artists steal. . .
  20. #20  
    Originally posted by Techie2000
    1. Will the Zaurus succede and take the industry by surprise or will it be an overpriced Unix/Linux geek toy?
    Zaurus will be a geek toy at first (just as the PalmPilot was when it originally came out). But the Zaurus "secret weapon" is that geeks are the people who write PDA software. If Sharp can afford to keep it alive long enough, us geeks are going to crank out some seriously cool apps for it The difference between the PalmOS API and the Zaurus Qtopia API is along the same lines as the difference between the Windows 3.1 API and that of BeOS. Developers who get a chance to play with the Zaurus will feel compelled to write apps for it. If Sharp's vision stays long-term, the Zaurus will succeed. If they get short-sighted it will fail commercially and become a cult device.

    2. Will the Visor line die or will Handspring finally update it after OS5 comes out?
    Unless the Treo succeeds in a very big way, you'll never see PalmOS 5 on any HS device.

    3. Will the Treo succede or be a flop that Handspring will try to forget about?
    The Treo will have good initial sales, but due to a small market, sales will be difficult for Handspring to sustain. In the US, the spectre of ever changing wireless technology will keep most people gun shy about shelling out $600 for a wireless device that they may want to replace in six months to a year with newer tech. Sales in Europe will actually be more stable than in the US.

    4. Will PocketPC continue to do okay or will it start to die a silent death?
    PocketPC will continue to win the hearts and minds of corporate purchasers who need something that can integrate easily with all the MS software on their corporate networks. Users won't care about prices (since most won't be buying out of their own pocket), but heavy competition among the myriad of PocketPC makers for big corporate purchase orders will push prices for quantity device purchases way below what the consumer sees.

    5. How do you think Handera will do?
    Handera will continue to be a very intelligent small player. They'll spend their limited R&D budget very wisely in producing PalmOS devices for their own niche of the PalmOS market. In fact, I can see them becoming the keeper of the Dragonball flame when Palm and Sony make the jump to ARM. Let's face it there are a ton of PalmOS 3.x apps out there and for many people, that's really all they need. Handera will continue to serve that market long after Palm and Sony have abandoned it in their race with PocketPC.

    6. Will Palm fail in the hardware buisness and just dedicate itself to the OS or is the Palm name enough to keep the devices selling?
    Palm's biggest challenge isn't going to be hardware, it's going to be software. PalmOS 5 is going to be evolutionary instead of revolutionary and that's going to disappoint users who will find the OS offers few compelling new capabilities. In fact the various tricks and hacks that have delighted power-users for so long will not work in the new OS and it will be some time before developers can craft suitable replacements. Things like expansion card support will remain complicated and confusing especially since solutions like MSMount and PiDirect will no longer work. Multimedia support will remain conspicuously absent as Palm has to focus all their resources on getting the core to work and can't devote much effort to bells and whistles (literally).

    For developers, the new OS will present little more than the same old APIs grafted on to a new kernel that replaces hacks with multi-tasking. Eventually, some of the BeOS technology will make it into a new object-oriented API, but that will be many months after the initial release and by then developers looking for something a little more fun to work with than 1980's technology will have jumped ship to Zarus or PPC.
    <ul><li>Dave Kessler<br>President - Kopsis, Inc.</li></ul>

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