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  1.    #1  
    Most Analysts believe that Palm sold about 100k Pre in its first weekend which is pretty good when you consider its not on the largest network.

    Apple is expecting to sell 500k phones in its first weekend. Less than the 700k it did last year.

    But if we delve a little further into the numbers we can see something interesting. Apple is selling the Iphone 3G S in 8 countries. It sells about 60% of all Iphones in the US.

    These 8 countries account for about 85-90% of their Iphone sales.

    So if Apple sells 500k Iphones worlwide that equates to roughly 300k Iphones in the US.

    So the Iphone is outselling the Palm Pre 3 to 1. When you factor in that At& has about 80m subscribers to Sprints 38m - they were selling into a larger user base.

    Factor that in and it could be down to 1.5 Iphone like for like sales for each Pre.
  2. godisgov's Avatar
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    #2  
    You're reaching on some of these points and others are just completely inaccurate.

    The iPhone is dominating the Pre in sales and will do so in the foreseeable future. If sales were dictated by quality of product, then people wouldn't buy iPod Shuffles and say "wtf is a Sansa Clip?"

    I've gotten a lot of compliments on my Pre but I've only had people recognize it at an Apple Store and when I went back to Sprint for a Touchstone.
  3. #3  
    And we should remember that Sprint hasn't even yet kicked off an aggressive marketing campaign for the Pre. I think it's fairly obvious at this point that sales are constrained by supply and from what I've seen will be through the end of June and into July. I'm guessing that sometime in July supply will catch up and Sprint will start advertising the bejeesus out of the Pre. Since the iPhone 3G S really isn't a superior smartphone, the Pre will do just fine.

    And as it's been said so many times before, it's not about killing the iPhone for Palm or Sprint any more than Hyundai's goal is to "kill" Lexus with their Genesis sedan. It's about generating a sufficient number of sales to get a return on the phone and position for future devices and increased market penetration.

    If the smartphone market were already saturated and wasn't growing, then stealing market share would be the objective. It's the oppositive, however--the smartphone market is still growing strong and only a fraction of the potential market has been realized. In short, there's plenty of room for everyone, Apple, RIM, Palm, Android, even Microsoft and Symbian. That's why McNamee's group put nearly half a $billion into Palm and there's nothing so far to make them anything but confident in a return.
    Treo 600 > Treo 650 > HTC Mogul (*****!) > HTC Touch Pro (***** squared!) > PRE! > Epic
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by no1smartphone View Post
    Most Analysts believe that Palm sold about 100k Pre in its first weekend...
    Please show your source for this. If I recall correctly some analysts said that Palm may have sold 100k Pres in the first week but I don't remember anyone saying that they sold 100k in the first weekend. On the other hand, Apple really did sell that many phones in a weekend last year because they're Apple.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by clipcarl View Post
    Please show your source for this. If I recall correctly some analysts said that Palm may have sold 100k Pres in the first week but I don't remember anyone saying that they sold 100k in the first weekend. On the other hand, Apple really did sell that many phones in a weekend last year because they're Apple.
    To summarize my earlier post, and perhaps speak for at least a few other members of this forum: who cares how many iPhones sold?
    Treo 600 > Treo 650 > HTC Mogul (*****!) > HTC Touch Pro (***** squared!) > PRE! > Epic
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by wynand32 View Post
    To summarize my earlier post, and perhaps speak for at least a few other members of this forum: who cares how many iPhones sold?
    I certainly do not care how many have been sold. If any of us cared about that sort of thing none of us would have bought Pres and I personally wouldn't be a Linux user. I was simply pointing out that the OP's facts may be wrong.

    Anyway, I'll let you get back to speaking for others now.
  7. #7  
    The same person giving the 500,000 number now says that number probably too conservative.

    Piper 'Conservative' On iPhone Estimates - Tech Check with Jim Goldman - CNBC.com

    And from lines still at the Apple store today and sold out at the ATT store today... it's gonna be a big number.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by wynand32 View Post
    And we should remember that Sprint hasn't even yet kicked off an aggressive marketing campaign for the Pre. I think it's fairly obvious at this point that sales are constrained by supply and from what I've seen will be through the end of June and into July. I'm guessing that sometime in July supply will catch up and Sprint will start advertising the bejeesus out of the Pre. Since the iPhone 3G S really isn't a superior smartphone, the Pre will do just fine.

    And as it's been said so many times before, it's not about killing the iPhone for Palm or Sprint any more than Hyundai's goal is to "kill" Lexus with their Genesis sedan. It's about generating a sufficient number of sales to get a return on the phone and position for future devices and increased market penetration.

    If the smartphone market were already saturated and wasn't growing, then stealing market share would be the objective. It's the oppositive, however--the smartphone market is still growing strong and only a fraction of the potential market has been realized. In short, there's plenty of room for everyone, Apple, RIM, Palm, Android, even Microsoft and Symbian. That's why McNamee's group put nearly half a $billion into Palm and there's nothing so far to make them anything but confident in a return.
    I disagree with the idea of sprint doing anykind of huge marketing roll out of the Pre anytime soon. First, I really don't think palm or sprint have the kind of money to roll out any advanced marketing concepts and second, Palm is having such supply issue's that I think the guerrila campaign targeted at existing customers is for at least the remainder of the year the best option for both sprint and palm because of the supply issues. At least that IMHO...also I like the fact that I'm the only one I know with this phone

    Also elevation partners the main investment group supporting Palm is pretty tapped out right now, I've read (ill try and find it) somewhere that Palm had less than $200 million in cash on hand during ramp up of production, and E.P's last transfusion was in fact its last transfusion of cash..also a good way to see if palm is struggling is to see if they announce any significant delays on getting those rebates back to us...


    also awesome....100th post...
    Last edited by mrloserpunk; 06/21/2009 at 03:20 PM. Reason: Wooting
  9.    #9  
    Analysts Put Palm Pre Sales at Roughly 100K - News and Analysis by PC Magazine

    The Palm Pre finally saw the light of day this weekend, and while the launch lacked the typical fanfare associated with an Apple or even a BlackBerry launch, analysts put sales figures at roughly 100,000 units.

    I like how the Iphone numbers are never questioned but the Pre figures are.
  10.    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by godisgov View Post
    You're reaching on some of these points and others are just completely inaccurate.

    The iPhone is dominating the Pre in sales and will do so in the foreseeable future. If sales were dictated by quality of product, then people wouldn't buy iPod Shuffles and say "wtf is a Sansa Clip?"

    I've gotten a lot of compliments on my Pre but I've only had people recognize it at an Apple Store and when I went back to Sprint for a Touchstone.

    Ok you care to elaborate?
  11. PreDogs's Avatar
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    #11  
    Apple has a large base to draw from and that is significant.

    Looking at the Apple line Friday, everybody had their 3G phones in hand as they waited for their turn to enter the store. So, apparently, a great number of them were feeling panic'ed to get the 3G S as their phone was now obsolete. So, I don't know that Apple's base is growing as much as Palms during these first two weeks. Face it, if you're spending as much as they are for restrained service, and it's become part of your identity, how can you stand to have last year's phone, even for a day? Especially with Pre's out there now.
  12. #12  
    Sure their base is growing... For all those people upgrading, they will be selling those 3Gs that they still sell for $99 new or give it to family and they will activate.

    A lot will be new subscribers... Really, a tiny number will shell out for full price to upgrade. The number of 3G owners able to upgrade a middle price this weekend is not that large. I'm a 2G owner and I am not eligible for the $299 upgrade until July 7th... so I keep my browsing The majority IMO new users. I know a couple that bought one each the other day and never owned an iphone and people that ordered one that were not on iphone.

    I don't know numbers worldwide but the 500,000 number is now determined as too conservative by the person who made it and they are talking 700,000 to a million. We could be talking 500,000 in US... in one weekend!

    If they do make 500,000 US sales. 100,000 still sounds to high to me for upgrading.

    Quote Originally Posted by PreDogs View Post
    Apple has a large base to draw from and that is significant.

    Looking at the Apple line Friday, everybody had their 3G phones in hand as they waited for their turn to enter the store. So, apparently, a great number of them were feeling panic'ed to get the 3G S as their phone was now obsolete. So, I don't know that Apple's base is growing as much as Palms during these first two weeks. Face it, if you're spending as much as they are for restrained service, and it's become part of your identity, how can you stand to have last year's phone, even for a day? Especially with Pre's out there now.
    Last edited by donm527; 06/21/2009 at 07:06 PM.
  13. #13  
    Palm seem to be selling all that they can produce. That has got to be good for them. (My hope is that GSM production is getting underway in parallel)
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by no1smartphone View Post
    So the Iphone is outselling the Palm Pre 3 to 1. When you factor in that At& has about 80m subscribers to Sprints 38m - they were selling into a larger user base.

    Factor that in and it could be down to 1.5 Iphone like for like sales for each Pre.
    You completely lost me here. There isn't some pool of "AT&T customers" who are forced to always stay with AT&T. If you're out of contract, you're fair game to go with whatever carrier you choose. My wife and I switched from Sprint to AT&T to get an iPhone 3GS. So, because of me, Sprint's customer base decreased by two, and AT&T's increased by two. You can try to spin things however you want, but the simple fact is that Apple's iPhone 3GS (an evolutionary, not revolutionary, upgrade) greatly outsold the Palm pre (a revolutionary upgrade from the Treo line).

    As far as the Palm pre selling out is concerned...that's tough to spin in a positive way given the significantly lower numbers we're talking about here. Either Palm/Sprint purposely manufactured/shipped fewer of them in order to create some artificial buzz by "selling out" or they simply didn't have enough money to build enough in advance or were too conservative in their estimates for how many they'd sell.

    What I'm more interested in is how many pre's sold compared to the debut of other previous Palm OS Treo's. As others have said, there's still a lot of room for growth in the smartphone market and there's always plenty of churn with people switching phones once every year (or every other year), so if the pre's numbers are still good, then that's great. I certainly hope that they do well. The market is always better when there's competition and consumers have choices.
    Last edited by Scott R; 06/28/2009 at 05:12 PM.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  15. #15  
    I believe everybody is wrong. Iphone sold about 500,000 the first weekend. Palm sold 25,000,000 the first weekend. Anything else said is just a rumor, and anything PC magazine says is sour grapes.

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