Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 40
  1.    #1  
    So on Friday afternoon, Mike over at our iPhone Blog stumbled across this primo piece of linkbait over at Roughly Drafted. It's not good news:

    In its first full quarter of sales, the iPhone has already climbed past Microsoft’s entire lineup of Windows Mobile smartphones in North America, according to figures compiled by Canalys and published by Symbian.
    Ok: some context. You can't get Canalys' number's without paying a lot of money, so instead what many folks do is find some sucker who's willing to pay for those numbers and publish them. Symbian is often that rube, and so we have the numbers and they show something startling: in one quarter (maybe two, we're working secondhand here), the iPhone had garnered **27%** of US marketshare in the smartphone category. Ouch.

    Now we're going on record saying that we're not believing the numbers 100%, but we can't tell if the fishy smell of the numbers is coming from the fact that the report is fishy or the fact that we're living in De Nile. It might be the denial thing, since we've already seen numbers claiming that the internet sees more Mobile Safari users than it does PocketIE users.

    So now what? Well, like Morning Paper (thanks for the link, there, pals!), we're taking the news philosophically. Well, philosophically with a side of “we don't believe it yet.” Look at the bright side - if it's true, we're suddenly rootin' for the underdogs, which is more fun and more gratifying. Plus: it looks like the platform that lost the most to the iPhone is the PalmOS. We're not saying, we're just saying.

    Read more at http://www.wmexperts.com/articles/ip...n_the_usa.html
  2. #2  
    Actually those numbers are pretty suspect, and does not agree with Canalys's last published data, from Q4 2006.


    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm

    For example, according the Canalys in Q4 2006 Nokia shipped 11 million smartphones world wide, while the worldwide graph for Q4 2006 shows Nokia shipping about 14.5 million (probably because its a presentation for Nokia marketing).
    (edit: Oops, forgot Nokia<>Symbian)

    At the same time, according to the table, RIMM shipped 1.8 million smartphones in Q4 2006, but according the the graph they only shipped about 800 000.
    Edit: This still stands

    Another example is that RIMM said they shipped 3 million blackberry's in Q3 2007 (quarter ending September 2007) when the world wide graph only indicated 2 million.
    This still stands

    They are probably playing fast and loose with their definition of what a smartphone is, like in past presentations where they only looked at "mid-range smartphones", ignoring the PDA phones which form the predominate part of the Windows Mobile market share.

    Surur
    Last edited by Overthrow; 12/17/2007 at 12:58 PM. Reason: fix improper url image timeout
  3. #3  
    Looks like the number correspond to me. I think you are not paying attention to the chart's titles that you reference. I see no discrepancies".
  4. #4  
    Depending on the definition of a smartphone, it would not be impossible to think that the iPhone has sold that well in the US. All of those numbers might be suspect in some various forms. But they all do point to a few (US) trends. the iPhone is clearly making an imprint on the market; if it were cheaper it would have killed a lot of everything else.

    I made my explaination for the browsing discrepancy a while back; but its simply that having a platform that uses web-based apps means that you will be in the browser more often. You don't need to be in the browser on WM, and its browser pales in compairson to Safari, therefore with a lower user expereince, fewer people and websites will talk about mobile web in the context of WM devices than with the iPhone.

    Would be nice to see more phones step up on the UX front; maybe then we might see something more than RAZRs and 7100 BBs in the US as "stylish" phones.
    MMM | AntoineRJWright.com | BH | Jaiku

    Moved on to Symbian, but still will visit from time to time.
  5. #5  
    According to the graph in Q3 only 217 000 PalmOS smartphones were sold, meaning around 70% of Palm's Treo sales are WM.

    Surur
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    They are probably playing fast and loose with their definition of what a smartphone is, like in past presentations where they only looked at "mid-range smartphones", ignoring the PDA phones which form the predominate part of the Windows Mobile market share.
    Agreed. The problem in the past (as we've discussed previously) has been that Canalys reported 'smartphone' sales and sales of 'smart mobile devices' where:

    'smart mobile devices' = 'smartphones' + 'wireless handhelds' + 'PDAs'

    - they effectively split what most of us call 'smartphones' into 'smartphones' and 'wireless handhelds' and didn't provide enough info to fully disaggregate the figures. In the past Symbian have seem to have just reported 'smartphones' (as Canalys define them), and they're probably doing the same now.

    Anyway, the iPhone is clearly doing very well in North America - that is though, as the Symbian document shows, a very unusual market.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Antoine of MMM View Post
    and its browser pales in compairson to Safari
    That's the bit that seems the most likely explanation to me. I was using PIE on a Vodafone V16-whatever (rebranded Kaiser) at the weekend. It really is quite crap.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    At the same time, according to the table, RIMM shipped 1.8 million smartphones in Q4 2006, but according the the graph they only shipped about 800 000.
    Edit: This still stands
    No, it doesn't.
  9. #9  
    Archie, maybe on everythingiphone they just believe everything you say, but on this forum you going to have to do a bit more work.

    Word of the day - Zirconia

    Surur
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    [...]
    At the same time, according to the table, RIMM shipped 1.8 million smartphones in Q4 2006, but according the the graph they only shipped about 800 000.
    Edit: This still stands
    [...]

    They are probably playing fast and loose with their definition of what a smartphone is, like in past presentations where they only looked at "mid-range smartphones", ignoring the PDA phones which form the predominate part of the Windows Mobile market share.

    Surur
    I'm having a hard time seeing anything that represents 800,000. Can I get a pointer as to which graph you're looking at?

    And yes, Canalys does play fast and loose with the smartphone term (just like Gartner), but it shouldn't be relevant here. Canalys uses 4 terms in their reports:
    • smart phone, which has some useless market subset definition,
    • handheld, which has some useless market subset definition,
    • wireless handheld, which has some useless market subset definition, and
    • smart mobile device, which is all three useless subsets lumped together, the totality of all of these various kinds of smartphones. this one is the useful one for our purposes.


    Judging by the cites in the Symbian fast facts site, they're referencing the useful all-inclusive smart mobile device section and changing the 'smart mobile device' language to the term everyone else understands, i.e. smartphone.

    The report *should* therefore also include suretype devices like the BB Pearl, as well as more pda-based windows mobile device, based on our prior research into Canalys press releases. I don't know why the chart seems to be missing 1m blackberries though.

    Anyone know why Microsoft doesn't provide sales data?
  11. #11  
    I read it from the world wide market share by OS since 2005.

    Surur
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Archie, maybe on everythingiphone they just believe everything you say, but on this forum you going to have to do a bit more work.
    Tell me more about this "everythingiphone"... is it an iPhone website or something?
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I read it from the world wide market share by OS since 2005.
    Exactly my point, so your point does not stand.

    Read the chart titles next time.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Exactly my point, so your point does not stand.

    Read the chart titles next time.
    Archie, I'll try and pitch it to you slooowly. We do not have independent data for the US. I have shown the worldwide data is inconsistent, so why should be believe the US data.

    Get it? Probably not...

    Surur
  15. #15  
    I have resized this graph so one pixel is 100 000 units.



    People can measure for themselves, but for me, in Q4 2006, RIMM only has 8-9 pixels. According to canalys's own figures the shipped 1.8 million in the same quarter. Obviously another million gone missing.

    To spell it out for Archie, if their figures are so radically different, how can we trust them?

    Surur
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I have resized this graph so one pixel is 100 000 units.



    People can measure for themselves, but for me, in Q4 2006, RIMM only has 8-9 pixels. According to canalys's own figures the shipped 1.8 million in the same quarter. Obviously another million gone missing.

    To spell it out for Archie, if their figures are so radically different, how can we trust them?

    Surur
    People reading this should realize (and look at the Symbian link themselves) that surur is spinning, as he always does, to color himself in the glorious manner that he wants us to look upon him in.

    There are results broken down by region, which should be the focus here since the iPhone was not in any other region besides the US in this 3rd quarter. There you will also discover the RIMM numbers. This is why a put Worldwide in boldface.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    People reading this should realize (and look at the Symbian link themselves) that surur is spinning, as he always does, to color himself in the glorious manner that he wants us to look upon him in.

    There are results broken down by region, which should be the focus here since the iPhone was not in any other region besides the US in this 3rd quarter. There you will also discover the RIMM numbers. This is why a put Worldwide in boldface.
    Archie, where's your independent numbers for RIMM in the US?

    Gloriously indeed.

    Surur
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by Overthrow View Post
    Anyone know why Microsoft doesn't provide sales data?
    Ballmer at least seems better at predicting the future than revealing the past. Last shareholder meeting he said:


    "As I said in my remarks, we hope to sell, and I think we will sell, 20 million phones this year."


    If he's going to make these sort of predictions it certainly would be nice if he'd come back later and tell us if he was right.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Ballmer at least seems better at predicting the future than revealing the past. Last shareholder meeting he said:


    "As I said in my remarks, we hope to sell, and I think we will sell, 20 million phones this year."


    If he's going to make these sort of predictions it certainly would be nice if he'd come back later and tell us if he was right.
    He did say that after revealing that they sold 11 million WM licenses for "converged devices" (what you and I call smartphones) in the last financial year (I think June 2006 to June 2007), 85% up from the previous financial year. Seeing how we are half way through the next one we better have sold around 10 million already in the last 6 months. Hit devices like the HTC Touch and Kaiser will certainly help, as can be seen by HTC's bulging coffers.

    Interestingly if you add up the total sales of WM devices from that Canalys graph from the same period you only get 5 million smartphones sold, meaning 6 million are absent from the graph (probably what Canalys calls wireless handhelds but I call my HTC Kaiser).


    To further show how this data misrepresents WM shares, On the graph from 2005, a total of around 1.1 million WM smartphones were sold in Q1 and Q2 2005. However if we look at Canalys's published data from the same time period, we get Q105 2 million, Q205 1.9 million (total 3.9 million windows mobile devices).

    The lesson here is know who the audience of the intended communication is aimed for. In this case its Symbian developers, and the agenda is Symbian dominance, hence the downplaying of the WM market-share. Its quite likely only Q's Dash's and Blackjacks are counted, and all the Tilts, Monguls and Wing's are ignored.

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 12/18/2007 at 09:22 AM.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Archie, where's your independent numbers for RIMM in the US?

    Gloriously indeed.

    Surur
    I don't know what you want me to say.

    The link you provide is not for 2007 as you want us to believe. It is for 2006. The particular numbers that I suspect you are looking for are not even released yet but everything else is there.
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions