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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    I don't know what you want me to say.

    The link you provide is not for 2007 as you want us to believe. It is for 2006. The particular numbers that I suspect you are looking for are not even released yet but everything else is there.
    2007 Archie, 2007. Lying wont help your case.

    Research In Motion Reports Second Quarter Results

    Waterloo, ON - Research In Motion Limited (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; TSX: RIM), a world leader in the mobile communications market, today reported second quarter results for the three months ended September 1, 2007 (all figures in U.S. dollars and U.S. GAAP).

    Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 was $1.37 billion, up 27% from $1.08 billion in the previous quarter and up 108% from $658.5 million in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 78% for devices, 15% for service, 4% for software and 3% for other revenue. Approximately 1.45 million BlackBerry® subscriber accounts were added in the quarter and over 3 million devices were shipped. The total BlackBerry subscriber account base at the end of the second quarter was approximately 10.5 million.
    http://www.rim.com/news/press/2007/p..._2007-01.shtml

    Archie, in case you are still not catching on, if their worldwide data excludes some blackberry's and WM devices, how can their regional breakdown be meaningful?

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 12/18/2007 at 12:46 PM.
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    He did say that after revealing that they sold 11 million WM licenses for "converged devices" (what you and I call smartphones) in the last financial year (I think June 2006 to June 2007), 85% up from the previous financial year.
    Thanks. I got the Ballmer quote from Microsoft's own transcript of its last shareholder meeting:

    http://www.microsoft.com/msft/downlo...ting111307.doc

    As far as I can see there's no mention there of an actual phone sales number, only the prediction for the next year.

    The Brighthand article you link says:

    "More than 11 million Windows Mobile licenses were sold during the last twelve months – an 85% increase over the number of licenses sold during the same period of the previous year."

    I presume this includes all WM licences, and so includes (non-phone) PDAs as well as phones. Thus without knowing the number of PDAs sold we can't really say from that figure how many WM phones were sold last year, except that it is less than 11 million. Also, as the second article you link says, the licence sales and device sales are not the same thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    The lesson here is know who the audience of the intended communication is aimed for. In this case its Symbian developers, and the agenda is Symbian dominance, hence the downplaying of the WM market-share. Its quite likely only Q's Dash's and Blackjacks are counted, and all the Tilts, Monguls and Wing's are ignored.
    As I said, I suspect that your analysis here is basically correct, but, equally, including PDAs in the WM figure also rather muddies the water. The comparison I'd like to see is sales of actual devices for iPhone vs WM phones, both in the US and globally. We know the iPhone numbers of course (from Apple), but I still haven't seen a convincing number for actual WM phone sales (i.e. not predictions, not licence sales and not including PDAs).
    Last edited by marcol; 12/19/2007 at 04:25 AM.
  3. #23  
    The second link is by group product manager for Windows Mobile, and if he specifically says converged devices it suggests PDA's are excluded.

    John Dietz, group product manager for Windows Mobile in Microsoft's mobile communications business.
    .
    .
    .
    "Last year, we sold 11 million Windows Mobile licenses for converged devices," Dietz says. "That was double the year before, and we expect to sell another 20 million next year."
    http://www.pdastreet.com/articles/20...lications.html

    MS can only know how many licenses they sell. What the ODM/OEM's do with them is up to them, but I would suggest they would not buy 85% more than the previous year if they did not anticipate selling more than they did before.

    Anyway, its because WM numbers are complicated that I am focussing on RIMM numbers, and worldwide numbers, as a) they publish in total how many they ship and b) they all contain cell radios.

    For example, RIM says in Q2 2007 (ending June 2007) they shipped 2.4 million blackberrys, while the graph suggests they shipped only 1.2 million. Basing any conclusion on information taken from this circular is very suspect.

    Surur
  4. #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    The second link is by group product manager for Windows Mobile, and if he specifically says converged devices it suggests PDA's are excluded.
    I've done a bit of research on this and I think you're right. Microsoft's WM site isn't very helpful but it does cite various IDC studies of 'converged devices', e.g. here:

    http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/p...KeyNotePR.mspx

    and IDC say:

    "IDC defines a converged mobile device as a mobile phone having a high-level operating system, such as BlackBerry, Linux, Palm, Symbian, or Windows Mobile."

    http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS20350406

    Presuming Microsoft use the term in the same way non-phone PDAs would be excluded and the Brighthand article was just a bit sloppy. The only nagging doubts I have are that 1) this means that Microsoft generally ignore PDAs altogether and 2) Microsoft too might be playing fast and loose with terminology to inflate their numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    MS can only know how many licenses they sell. What the ODM/OEM's do with them is up to them, but I would suggest they would not buy 85% more than the previous year if they did not anticipate selling more than they did before.
    For sure but Dietz does say the numbers are different, and you have to expect that the number of licences > number of devices sold in any particular period. I don't know how this works but would presume that licences need to be bought well before devices are sold and to a certain extent increases in licence numbers prefigure increases in device sales. This could lead to big errors, especially in an a market that's expanding quite rapidly.
  5. #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    For sure but Dietz does say the numbers are different, and you have to expect that the number of licences > number of devices sold in any particular period. I don't know how this works but would presume that licences need to be bought well before devices are sold and to a certain extent increases in licence numbers prefigure increases in device sales. This could lead to big errors, especially in an a market that's expanding quite rapidly.
    Possibly, but since we are only talking licenses here, not physical goods, I'm sure orders on a quarterly basis would be perfectly fine.

    Surur
  6. #26  
    Doesn't surprise me a bit if the idiotPhone is number 2. The fact is that american consumers are complete and total idiots, so how appropriate that they would waste money on a device that is all sizzle and no steak. No expandability, no user replaceable battery, no extra applications to speak of.

    I tried an idiotPhone at the ATT store. It was cool for about a minute. My Treo 750 is far superior.
  7. #27  
    This Just In!
    surur Has No Idea What He Is Talking About!

    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    The particular numbers that I suspect you are looking for are not even released yet but everything else is there.
    So as you may recall, for anyone reading this, surur was talking crap and casting doubt. Well, today RIM finally released the numbers (and don't forget, I said as much) for THEIR quarter ending December 1.

    They stand at about 1.65 million new subscribers and at LEAST that many phones without subscriptions (that is still possible, right?).

    So you can no longer cast the results aside by trying to discredit them. Face it, the iPhone is doing better than you expected.
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by treoconvert View Post
    Doesn't surprise me a bit if the idiotPhone is number 2. The fact is that american consumers are complete and total idiots, so how appropriate that they would waste money on a device that is all sizzle and no steak. No expandability, no user replaceable battery, no extra applications to speak of.

    I tried an idiotPhone at the ATT store. It was cool for about a minute. My Treo 750 is far superior.
    I don't know if you are paying attention but the iPhone is getting 8.25 hours talk-time, 30 hours audio playback, 7 hours video playback or 6 hours on the internet. Why would you need to carry around an extra battery. If you want to carry around an extra something to provide even MORE power, there are plug-in battery packs/chargers that are available that act as instant power or quick chargers.

    No expandability? Again, you have been locked up (or are a troll, or just another surur alias)
    I have an iPhone acting as a web server. Tell me - can your Treo do that?
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    This Just In!
    surur Has No Idea What He Is Talking About!


    So as you may recall, for anyone reading this, surur was talking crap and casting doubt. Well, today RIM finally released the numbers (and don't forget, I said as much) for THEIR quarter ending December 1.

    They stand at about 1.65 million new subscribers and at LEAST that many phones without subscriptions (that is still possible, right?).

    So you can no longer cast the results aside by trying to discredit them. Face it, the iPhone is doing better than you expected.
    Archie, you know, if you are dyslexic, it doesn't necessarily mean you are stupid. You can tell us if you are having difficulty reading whats on the page, or if you dont understand what Q3 2007 means. We would be a lot more forgiving.

    In case you are afraid to admit your impediments, it means Quarter 3 2007, i.e. (sorry, in other words) the 3rd 3 months of the year, July, August and September.

    Archie, please tell me you get it now. It would be so sad if you did not.... We are really only trying to help you, you know.

    PS: Tell me if making the font bigger would help you read better.

    PPS: I've added a graphic with high contrast colours and unexpected shapes to aid in your comprehension and retention.



    Notice where the personalized 'Archie Pointing Fish' is pointing. As mentioned earlier (but I will repeat just for you) Q3 means June, July and August 2007.

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 12/21/2007 at 04:42 AM.
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Well, today RIM finally released the numbers (and don't forget, I said as much) for THEIR quarter ending December 1.

    They stand at about 1.65 million new subscribers and at LEAST that many phones without subscriptions (that is still possible, right?).
    BTW, Archie, considering your problem, its not surprising that you managed to read only half of RIMM's press release. Those rose-coloured glasses are clearly not helping. Here, I'll try and make it a bit easier for you.

    Research In Motion Reports Third Quarter Results

    Waterloo, ON - Research In Motion Limited (RIM)(NASDAQ:RIMM)(TSX:RIM), a world leader in the mobile communications market, today reported third quarter results for the three months ended December 1, 2007 (all figures in U.S. dollars and U.S. GAAP).

    Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 was $1.67 billion, up 22% from $1.37 billion in the previous quarter and up 100% from $835.1 million in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 80% for devices, 14% for service, 4% for software and 2% for other revenue. Approximately 1.65 million BlackBerry® subscriber accounts were added in the quarter and over 3.9 million devices were shipped. The total BlackBerry subscriber account base at the end of the third quarter was approximately 12 million.
    http://www.rim.net/news/press/2007/p..._2007-01.shtml

    Notice how I used large fonts and bright colours to help you? I hope this will help you catch the information you clearly missed last time a bit better.

    Also, I hope you are not confused by RIMM talking about their 3rd quarter. You probably dont know this, but company's Financial Years often do not start at the same time as Calender Years.

    Please tell me if there is anything more I can help you with. Just because you are less fortunate does not mean you have to suffer in ignorance.

    Surur
  11. #31  
    Why do you choose to ignore what I say.

    I said 1.65 million new subscribers (numbers that Engadget deemed important enough to point out). Then I said their final product shipments would of course be at least that many.

    So then to account for your inconsequential worry (lets be honest here), those third quarter numbers only account for 2 months (July and August) of RIMs numbers (because as I pointed out from the very beginning, they had not reported their next quarters numbers yet (September, October and November).
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    BTW, Archie, considering your problem, its not surprising that you managed to read only half of RIMM's press release. Those rose-coloured glasses are clearly not helping. Here, I'll try and make it a bit easier for you.


    http://www.rim.net/news/press/2007/p..._2007-01.shtml

    Notice how I used large fonts and bright colours to help you? I hope this will help you catch the information you clearly missed last time a bit better.

    Also, I hope you are not confused by RIMM talking about their 3rd quarter. You probably dont know this, but company's Financial Years often do not start at the same time as Calender Years.

    Please tell me if there is anything more I can help you with. Just because you are less fortunate does not mean you have to suffer in ignorance.

    Surur
    I find it quite ironic that you point out to me the very thing you seem to gloss over.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Why do you choose to ignore what I say.

    I said 1.65 million new subscribers (numbers that Engadget deemed important enough to point out). Then I said their final product shipments would of course be at least that many.

    So then to account for your inconsequential worry (lets be honest here), those third quarter numbers only account for 2 months (July and August) of RIMs numbers (because as I pointed out from the very beginning, they had not reported their next quarters numbers yet (September, October and November).
    Because RIM sold nothing in September?

    Also, you do realize devices sold to Blackberry upgraders wont add new subscriptions, dont you?

    Archie, do you at least acknowledge that the Canalys graph does not count all RIM devices shipped? Yes or no?

    Surur
  14. #34  
    Archie, I'll make the calculation a bit easier for you. If they sold 3 million in June, July and August, thats 1 million per month. If they sold 3.9 million in September, October and November thats 1.3 million per month.

    Therefore calender Q3 (July, August and September) would be 1+1+1.3= 3.3 million shipped. So instead of just under-counting by 1 million the Canalys graph under-counted by 1.3 million.

    It seems your point makes you case even weaker, but thats usually the case with you.

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 12/21/2007 at 12:44 PM.
  15. #35  
    The iPhone

    Proof positive that PT Barnum was right.

    There is an ***** born every minute...
  16. #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by treoconvert View Post
    The iPhone

    Proof positive that PT Barnum was right.

    There is an ***** born every minute...
    With insightful commentary such as this, PT Barnum proved there is more than one type of sucker.
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Archie, I'll make the calculation a bit easier for you. If they sold 3 million in June, July and August, thats 1 million per month. If they sold 3.9 million in September, October and November thats 1.3 million per month.

    Therefore calender Q3 (July, August and September) would be 1+1+1.3= 3.3 million shipped. So instead of just under-counting by 1 million the Canalys graph under-counted by 1.3 million.

    It seems your point makes you case even weaker, but thats usually the case with you.

    Surur
    Very good! You have demonstrated your ability to calculate the mean. What you fail to recognize is (skewed) distribution; therefore, your conclusion is incorrect and invalid for the argument at hand. The very same press release you quoted said as much when they indicated the numbers were heavily weighted towards the end of the quarter.
  18. bobdelt's Avatar
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    #38  
    I can pee farther than both of you!!!!!
  19. #39  
    Quote Originally Posted by bobdelt View Post
    I can pee farther than both of you!!!!!
    LMAO!! That was too funny.
    ~ ScandaLous ~
  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Very good! You have demonstrated your ability to calculate the mean. What you fail to recognize is (skewed) distribution; therefore, your conclusion is incorrect and invalid for the argument at hand. The very same press release you quoted said as much when they indicated the numbers were heavily weighted towards the end of the quarter.
    So you are still proposing they shipped nothing in September?

    Surur
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