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  1. #61  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Not really. I was taking issue with and providing some information relevant bruckwine's assertion that ""A poll of 200 ppl doesn't give a true reflection of over 700,00 owners". I did take it a bit further and say "On that basis, 83 - 97% of iPhone users are "extremely" or "very" satisfied with their phone (CI = 95%)", but note the prefacing clause.


    Neither I, USA Today nor Interpret (who did the poll) have said anything about why they like it. There may may be an element of what you say but I have no way of quantifying that and I don't think you do either. That said, if the user experience was truly awful I expect that to come through in the poll (whatever predisposition the hype may or may not have been imposed). You guys seem so defensive. Why not just take it for what it is - a snap shot of how those who bought the iPhone early feel about it in the first few days of ownership?
    That is what it is - but not what it seemed to be portrayed as in this thread by the OP. In my post I never said it was not true (that most were satisfied) - I just thought it wasn't the best sample imo to make that statement.

    Someone mentioned earlier it was like an O'Reilly poll and it came across as one of those to me (more hype than value for media reaction). But I could be wrong on the aims of the poll!

    On another note - something I didn't even notice is that the survey was online - how did they conduct it then (i.e. was itonly USA Today readers)?
  2. #62  
    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    Well you 1st article linked says the same as the first post you made on the topic i.e. you get about 7% error within 95% CI - still does not make it reliable as 7% is a wider margin than 3% (if you used a sample size of 800) AND says nothing about the composition of the sample. Reading the original USA Today article they polled 1000 cellphone owners - so this was a subset of that group. Imo it would've been better and more reliable to actually aim for 1000 iPhone owners and to have such a survey well after the launch.

    Of course I'm looking from a scientific viewpoint where an error range of 7% is borderline and as I said before I consider 5% or less more acceptable. I hope this link works (from googlebooks):
    I sort of agree and note you've come a long way from "A poll of 200 ppl doesn't give a true reflection of over 700,00 owners". I was just giving that some context. What one considers "acceptable" depends on purpose. Of course a 5% margin of error is better than 7%. 7% would be useless in an opinion poll in political two-horse race when the candidate/parities are neck-and-neck. But that's not the case here - it's 9 to 1 'extremely or very satisfied' vs the other categories. Also note that the errors are less when the split is not close to 50:50 (see links above).



    http://books.google.com/books?id=hwd...dvcXu59Y_k6i_k

    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    Imho at least to run a survey less than a month after ppl buy a new media-exposed "hyped" device asking for consumer satisfaction (which can change within a year - e.g. battery problems, warranty issues etc) is a bit premature, and has SOME inkling of politics. Given that assumption multiply that 7% error by 1.7 and you have an error of 11.9%.
    See my comments above. At best it's just a snapshot.

    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    What may be groundless is trusting a poll in the media that gives no real details on how it was conducted (as stated can be skewed simply by how you do it rather than how many times) - as we've both shown sample size alone is not the end all, but it does count.
    Agreed. We no nothing of how it was done. OTOH, I've no reason to assume that as a professional polling organisation Interpret doesn't know how to obtain a random sample. Again though, my main point was just about sample size and addressed your comment that this was inadequate. It was adequate to give a margin of error of 7%.
  3. #63  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    I sort of agree and note you've come a long way from "A poll of 200 ppl doesn't give a true reflection of over 700,00 owners". I was just giving that some context. What one considers "acceptable" depends on purpose. Of course a 5% margin of error is better than 7%. 7% would be useless in an opinion poll in political two-horse race when the candidate/parities are neck-and-neck. But that's not the case here - it's 9 to 1 'extremely or very satisfied' vs the other categories. Also note that the errors are less when the split is not close to 50:50 (see links above).



    http://books.google.com/books?id=hwd...dvcXu59Y_k6i_k


    See my comments above. At best it's just a snapshot.


    Agreed. We no nothing of how it was done. OTOH, I've no reason to assume that as a professional polling organisation Interpret doesn't know how to obtain a random sample. Again though, my main point was just about sample size and addressed your comment that this was inadequate. It was adequate to give a margin of error of 7%.
    Fair enough :thumbsup

    P.S. My original comment was firmly based on the "tone" of the OP ohbw . In reality it isn't useless...but it also doesn't justify his ranting and flaming.
  4. #64  
    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    In my post I never said it was not true (that most were satisfied) - I just thought it wasn't the best sample imo to make that statement.
    Bigger is always better - but it is a law of diminishing returns: the margin of for a sample size of 200 is 6.9%, but sampling five times as many people reduces this by only just over two-fold (to 3.1%).

    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    On another note - something I didn't even notice is that the survey was online - how did they conduct it then (i.e. was itonly USA Today readers)?
    The USA Today article says it was conducted and paid for by Interpret so at a guess I'd say they did it and then offered it to USA Today (for a price obviously). I suspect USA Today would have said if it was a poll of just their readers.
  5. #65  
    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    I'm not a guy and I get your point. However, you are posting on a Treo forum, not an iPhone forum. There's a different forum out there for you if you want to hear nice things about the iPhone.
    I don't want to post in a forum where only nice things are said about the iPhone. Here's my comment (from June 29) on the new phone different forum:

    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Can I ask why? I'll see how it develops but if Surur's thinking of leaving and and others of a similar perspective do the same what will we be left with? I think the iPhone's great but I'm not sure I really want to discuss it just with people who agree with me. Where's the fun in that?
    http://forum.phonedifferent.com/showthread.php?t=146627

    My use of the term 'guys' is gender independent.

    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    Someone who disagrees with you is not defensive,
    Not necessarily, no. My feeling was that the two posts I was referring to were defensive. I believe I have every right to state that opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    So make your point, take your hits
    I've been doing that in this den of WM thieves for a good while now Thanks for the advice though.

    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    and quit whining or post on your own forum.
    Whine, moi?
  6. #66  
    Quote Originally Posted by bruckwine View Post
    Fair enough :thumbsup
    Glad we're in some sort of agreement

    In that spirit, I'm posting the link below, a commentary on the USA Today article which also seems to be questioning the reality of the numbers:

    iPhone satisfaction numbers are unreal

  7. #67  
    marcol,

    I don't think you got thr point.

    The premise of that poll is flawed, so the results are already pre-ordained.

    It's like polling 100 people who haven't eaten for 3 days and asking them if they like that Ritz crackers they just ate.
  8. #68  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikec View Post
    marcol,

    I don't think you got thr point.

    The premise of that poll is flawed, so the results are already pre-ordained.

    It's like polling 100 people who haven't eaten for 3 days and asking them if they like that Ritz crackers they just ate.
    You're arguing against a point I didn't make. To use your analogy, I'm saying that if 700 000 (or a million or whatever) people are starving and you give them all Ritz crackers it's ok to ask just 200 of them if they like the crackers - that gives you a pretty good idea of their opinions.

    I'm saying that if 180 of 200 sampled iPhone owners rate the phone as extremely or very satisfactory, that's a fair reflection of what the rest think too (assuming decent sampling practices). I've made no comment on *why* they feel like that.

    Your analogy is interesting though. Are really trying to say that all the phones iPhone owners had before are like starvation and Apple just brought them food?
  9. #69  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Glad we're in some sort of agreement

    In that spirit, I'm posting the link below, a commentary on the USA Today article which also seems to be questioning the reality of the numbers:

    iPhone satisfaction numbers are unreal

    Btw he got the link title wrong..it was 1000 cellphone owners not iPhone owners!
  10. #70  
    Original post by marcol
    I don't want to post in a forum where only nice things are said about the iPhone. Here's my comment (from June 29) on the new phone different forum:

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Can I ask why? I'll see how it develops but if Surur's thinking of leaving and and others of a similar perspective do the same what will we be left with? I think the iPhone's great but I'm not sure I really want to discuss it just with people who agree with me. Where's the fun in that?
    Your original post is my point. You're posting here to get reaction, not agreement. If we wanted an iPhone, we'd get one. Most of us don't own one and aren't willing to pay $600 + new phone service just to check it out.

    As I've stated in other posts, I think it's a great device for nonpda power users. There are plenty of them out there. It's also a great device for those who haven't purchased an iPod yet, but would love to own one.

    For the rest of us, perhaps it will be okay in it's 3rd or 4th generation. However, there's a lot more casual pda users than power users so why go after a shrinking market. The iPod has stayed great as a one concept device and I think the iPhone will stay strong just in combining two options. It simply won't convert the users who use their pdas as mini laptops and full working (productivity) devices.

    In terms of defensiveness, I consider your post a tad definsive when you consider you're getting the interaction that you hoped to get when you made your posts.

    Hmm: Can't decide what you really want when you post, or just posting to spout? It's of course your call.
  11. #71  
    marcol,

    Well, it was the Jesus Phone, so maybe it can feed the starving masses.

    You are arguing that the survey is valid, when it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  12. #72  
    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    Your original post is my point. You're posting here to get reaction, not agreement.
    Quote Originally Posted by bdhu2001 View Post
    Hmm: Can't decide what you really want when you post, or just posting to spout? It's of course your call.
    I'm not sure anyone else is interested, but since you ask...

    I do post to get a reaction I guess, at least in the sense that it's nice to get a reply. I once started a thread about the start-up time of TomTom on WM5 devices and was pretty much the only person who posted in it (I think there might have been one other reply). That really wasn't a great deal fun at all! I suppose that precludes 'spouting' as the reason too. Why I'm posting in these 'Other devices' iPhone threads is a matter of history really. I was pretty active in the old iPhone TreoCentral forum and this is where some of the people who were also active there have come to talk about the iPhone now. I do think it's a bit of pity that the old forum (which I really liked and posted to much more often) has been split into two now. I know Surur has said he doesn't want to post at Phone Different because he doesn't want to post things that might be seen as trolling and might damage TreoCentral's efforts to establish that site. I of course respect that but also think it would be a shame if we were to end up with most of the positive comments in one forum and most of the negative posted to another. That's not really a discussion at all.

    As to why I post about the iPhone, that stems from the original announcement. I thought then and still think now that aspects of it absolutely stunning. In its current incarnation it's too limited for me to seriously consider, and you're spot on with the suggestion that its the PDA functions that are lacking. I'm very reliant on calendar functions and the iPhone is weak in this area (especially configurability of alarms) and it also completely lacks to-dos, which I also use extensively. Get those right though and add a 3G radio and they'd probably have me.
  13. #73  
    I haven't seen a iphone in person since I have been out of country, and I will definitely check one out when I am back in the States in August. Yeah, the hardware specs look pretty interesting (the lack of 3G is a mystery to me), but the $500 to $600 price tag??? The early adopters will pay almost anything to get the latest gadget, but what about the mainstream users? Especially when there are many alternatives at much lower price points.

    Time will tell.
  14. #74  
    Apparently quite a number of people are willing to break contracts to buy it and pay significantly more than the $500 or $600 upfront cost:

    Interpret's survey also bodes well for AT&T. Half the buyers switched from another carrier. Of those, 35% paid an average $167 to break a contract. "We thought AT&T would be more of a barrier to entry," says Munster.
    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/wireles...#uslPageReturn

    Quote Originally Posted by Rome View Post
    The early adopters will pay almost anything to get the latest gadget, but what about the mainstream users? Especially when there are many alternatives at much lower price points.

    Time will tell.
    Indeed. From Apple and AT&Ts perspective this does seem to have gone about as well as they might reasonably have hoped. It is of course *very* early days though. I suspect that a key now will be word of mouth. Probably more significant than the '90% extremely/very satisfied' stat in the Interpret survey is the stat related to whether owners would recommend the iPhone:

    85% said they are "extremely" or "very" likely to recommend the device to others,
  15. #75  
    Although, iPhone buyers are very satisfied with their purchase, those that are using forums are clamoring for 3rd party apps. Here's just a few of the things they're asking for:
    1. Over the Air SYNC of Contacts, Calendar, Task, To Do List, Notes
    2. Active Sync for Exchange and Windows Live
    3. Email FROM Address (or Reply To)
    4. Yahoo PUSH of "My Folders". Not just INBOX
    5. Direct SYNC with Google Calendars (using SyncMyCal now).
    6. GPS - even via Bluetooth : a)Show Actual Battery Level (i.e. 67%) b)Show USAGE per major application
    7. Mobile iTunes Store and Streaming Media from my iTunes
    8. Downloads off the Net into a Download folder on the Home Screen (Word, Excel, PDF, QT Video, etc.)
    9. Chat client
    10. Ability to use iphone as a tethered modem
    11. Decent games
    12. Ability to create, edit, and send office documents
    13. Offline reader (ebooks, magazines, newspapers.. purchased on iTunes
    14. Voice Dialing
    15. Video recording
    16. Customizable Ringtones


    They're happy with their purchase, but they know what types of apps would make them comfortable enough to give up other devices or make them ecstatic about their purchase. In other words, they expect a lot of movement to meet their needs in the upcoming year or two.

    I hope Apple and a lot of app developers are prepared to meet their needs. This is the reason my job will only allow palm OS pdas to syncronize with their systems, the new windows apps were too unstable when we checked into them five years ago.

    Five years later, I'm sure there are plenty of apps that are stable and won't require a lot of tech support. Unfortunately our tech crew can't get past the memory of trying to purchase the new edge tech tool that didn't work. It was embarrassing for them. Now they allow palm and blackberries-Nothing else. Additionally, the palmTreo can only sync. I can't convince them to allow me to access the e-mail and calendar wirelessly.
  16. #76  
  17. #77  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Apparently quite a number of people are willing to break contracts to buy it and pay significantly more than the $500 or $600 upfront cost:


    http://www.usatoday.com/tech/wireles...#uslPageReturn


    Indeed. From Apple and AT&Ts perspective this does seem to have gone about as well as they might reasonably have hoped. It is of course *very* early days though. I suspect that a key now will be word of mouth. Probably more significant than the '90% extremely/very satisfied' stat in the Interpret survey is the stat related to whether owners would recommend the iPhone:
    The playstation III had a great start as well....sony couldn't make enough of them to keep up with the demand. People were sleeping in front of Bestbuy for days to get their hands on the machine. Some playstation III units were going for as high as $1500 and more on ebay. Early words of mouth were good too.

    Last time I heard, sony was lowering playstation III's price to stimulate demand, and iphones are not going for much above its retail prices in store.

    Like I said before, time will tell.
  18. #78  
    Quote Originally Posted by slingbox View Post
    Ive taken MobilityToday of my RSS feed. The bash WM to no end, but forgive the iPhone all its sins, all for a pretty (impractical) browser. I understand they had some kind of breakup with the WM development team, and now its all personal.

    Surur
  19. braj's Avatar
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    #79  
    Quote Originally Posted by Rome View Post
    The playstation III had a great start as well....sony couldn't make enough of them to keep up with the demand. People were sleeping in front of Bestbuy for days to get their hands on the machine. Some playstation III units were going for as high as $1500 and more on ebay. Early words of mouth were good too.

    Last time I heard, sony was lowering playstation III's price to stimulate demand, and iphones are not going for much above its retail prices in store.

    Like I said before, time will tell.
    My guess is when iPhone users run into the limitations of the device after the intoxication with the UI wears off, and they see all the things they don't have access to.They won't necessarily jump ship but they will be way less evangelical than now, and their evangelism won't be as effective to other consumers either. $600 is a lot of cash for a phone that does indeed have lots of limitations. My Treo can have twice the memory of an iPhone right now and that will just get more and more so in the next 6 months as memory prices naturally drop and new phones have even more features the iPhone is lacking.

    IMO Apple should have included mini SD and 3rd party apps. This would have given the device some legs. Right now the only hope for an iPhone upgrade is forking over another $600 when the next version comes out, and hopefully it will have all the features you want, because you likely won't be able to add them yourself.
  20. #80  
    Originally posted by braj:
    . . . IMO Apple should have included mini SD and 3rd party apps. . .
    Are you saying that the iPhone does not have access to external memory like a memory card or stick slot?
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