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  1.    #1  
    Business Week




    Can anything stop HTC? The world's leading producer of smart phones operating on Windows software has been the unquestioned star of Taiwan's tech world. Rivals like Motorola are offering some competition, but HTC's early lead and close ties with Microsoft have helped the company stay far ahead of the pack.

    The company has impressive growth and soaring profits, and investors have every reason to be pleased with this year's performance, especially as shareholder return hit 314%. Winning big contracts to make personal digital assistants, or PDAs, such as Hewlett Packard's (HPQ) iPAQ, and smart phones for T-mobile and Cingular, has been a key component of HTC's success, securing its position as one of the premier handset designers and manufacturers in the world.

    But HTC has shown they're no longer content with the status quo. HTC chair Cher Wang recently acquired control of handset maker Dopod, suggesting she will now try to build up products under the company's own name. HTC has thrived by staying out of the brand name business. Will customers feel comfortable with HTC now a competitor as well as a supplier?


    http://bwnt.businessweek.com/it100/2006/index.asp

    Commentary:
    HTC is doing pretty well, and as the article says is currently the darling of Taiwan. This will lead many other companies, both large and small, to try and emulate them. Expect of flood of Windows Mobile devices from a wide variety of ODM's to reach the market soon. The only question is whether they will be able to expand the market beyond the hardcore and into the consumer market. Personally I dont feel the OS is ready for that yet, but I may be proven wrong. Certainly compelling consumer features such as GPS, TV and good cameras are essential to appeal to a wider market, and in this they will be competing against simple feature phones too.

    HTC may be growing very well, but the future is far from clear.

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 06/27/2006 at 05:12 PM.
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    Business Week








    http://bwnt.businessweek.com/it100/2006/index.asp

    Commentary:
    HTC is doing pretty well, and as the article says is currently the darling of Taiwan. This will lead many other companies, both large and small, to try and emulate them. Expect of flood of Windows Mobile devices from a wide variety of ODM's to reach the market soon. The only question is whether they will be able to expand the market beyond the hardcore and into the consumer market. Personally I dont feel the OS is ready for that yet, but I may be proven wrong. Certainly compelling consumer features such as GPS, TV and good cameras are essential to appeal to a wider market, and in this they will be competing against simple feature phones too.

    HTC may be growing very well, but the future is far from clear.

    Surur
    If HTC makes a Treo-form-factor like device but includes all their usual top-of-the-line hardware, and MS fixes WM to resolve the biggest issues, it's all over.
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  3. #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by skfny
    If HTC makes a Treo-form-factor like device but includes all their usual top-of-the-line hardware, and MS fixes WM to resolve the biggest issues, it's all over.
    Really?

    Worldwide total smart mobile device market:

    Symbian: Q1 2004 41%, Q1 2005 61%, Q1 2006 69%
    MS: Q1 2004 23%, Q1 2005 18%, Q1 2006 12%
    RIM: Q1 2004 6%, Q1 2005 7%, Q1 2006 8%

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2005/r2005041.htm
    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006043.htm

    OK, this is all smartphones not just those with a QWERTY on the front, but based on those figures I don't see Nokia and Sony Ericsson going away anytime soon. It will be interesting to see how the Nokia E61, SE P990 and SE M600i do, but my guess is rather well.
  4. #4  
    If HTC makes a Treo-form-factor like device but includes all their usual top-of-the-line hardware, and MS fixes WM to resolve the biggest issues, it's all over.
    I remember reading somewhere that HTC did have a part in making the 700w. I think I read that on engadget but it was a long time ago.
    Avatar is the license plate of my 95 White Ford Bronco



    HTC TyTn II<- Current Favorite PDA phone
    CDMA the past;GSM the future
  5.    #5  
    I think he meant all over for POS. Obviously Symbian will still provide very strong competition to MS.

    The more PDA-like Nokia makes their devices however, the less they sell. The Nokia E61 competes directly against WM devices like the Treo Lennon and HP 6920. Certainly it will be 5-10 years before MS could say they are toe-to-toe with Symbian.

    Surur
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol
    Really?

    Worldwide total smart mobile device market:

    Symbian: Q1 2004 41%, Q1 2005 61%, Q1 2006 69%
    MS: Q1 2004 23%, Q1 2005 18%, Q1 2006 12%
    RIM: Q1 2004 6%, Q1 2005 7%, Q1 2006 8%

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2005/r2005041.htm
    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006043.htm

    OK, this is all smartphones not just those with a QWERTY on the front, but based on those figures I don't see Nokia and Sony Ericsson going away anytime soon. It will be interesting to see how the Nokia E61, SE P990 and SE M600i do, but my guess is rather well.
    Let me clarify: I didn't mean it's all over in the smartphone market. If HTC puts together a decent device, it could be all over for Palm and our beloved Treos.

    Frankly I personally couldn't care less about Symbian and their plethora of dumb smartphones. I'd like to see those numbers with just the upper end of Symbian phones - those that are comparable to POS and WM devices. But that's just me.
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    The more PDA-like Nokia makes their devices however, the less they sell.
    I expect you're right, although I've not seen the numbers. The interesting thing is, looking at all the phones (past, present and future), here:

    http://www.symbian.com/phones/index.html

    there really haven't been any Treo-like Symbian phones before the Nokia E61, SE P990 and SE M600i. Before that the 'PDA-like' devices were the likes of the Nokia 9xxx series (giant clam shells), the SE 900 (no QWERTY keyboard) and the SE 910 (silly flip-down QWERTY). Like I say, it will be interesting to see how the E61, P990, M660i do. My only evidence that they might do pretty well is that I personally like what I'm seeing and other Treo users who've switched to the E61 (the only one of three that's available now according to symbian.com) have had very positive things to say (see several threads in this forum). The candidates for my very overdue next device are currently the E61, Hermes, and the Hollywood/Lennon. Of these the Lennon is probably a no-go because it's probably exclusive to Vodafone in the UK (I really need to get away from Voda and there stupidly high data charges) and I'm favouring the E61 over the Hermes because of the form factor and better one-handed usability.

    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    The Nokia E61 competes directly against WM devices like the Treo Lennon and HP 6920. Certainly it will be 5-10 years before MS could say they are toe-to-toe with Symbian.
    Extrapolating

    MS: Q1 2004 23%, Q1 2005 18%, Q1 2006 12%

    Microsoft won't selling any smartphones at all in 5 to 10 years
  8.    #8  
    Extrapolating

    MS: Q1 2004 23%, Q1 2005 18%, Q1 2006 12%

    Microsoft won't selling any smartphones at all in 5 to 10 years
    According to that graph Palm stopped selling phones 3 years ago

    Surur
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    According to that graph Palm stopped selling phones 3 years ago
    In 1100 years men will be able to run at the speed of light:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_R...sion_100_m_men

    but will be slower than women:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_R...on_100_m_women
  10.    #10  
    :d
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by skfny
    If HTC makes a Treo-form-factor like device but includes all their usual top-of-the-line hardware, and MS fixes WM to resolve the biggest issues, it's all over.
    Agreed on these points. That would make the perfect device. Windows Mobile is *VERY* capable. Some UI changes would actually make it usable. I dorked with the Smartphone Edition of Windows Mobile and I really really like what they did with the UI. From my brief exposure to it I must say it's light years ahead of the PocketPC edition in terms of usability. Perhaps that's why Motorola went with it for the Q. Now, if they could slap a touch screen on it then it would be perfect for the rest of us.
    ---
    iPhone / Samsung Epix

    Current playtoys:
    Also: Treo 750 (Test phone) / Sony Ericcson w900 (unlocked for international travel)
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by skfny
    I'd like to see those numbers with just the upper end of Symbian phones
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    The more PDA-like Nokia makes their devices however, the less they sell.
    Some speculation on E61 numbers:

    Quote Originally Posted by Tero Kuittinen
    Reflecting the rather minuscule current size of the email phone market -- roughly 2 million BlackBerry-like devices were sold in 2005 -- Research In Motion is probably going to add fewer than 3 million BlackBerry subscribers this year. However, Motorola is aiming to sell 12 million Q phones in its first year on the market, and Nokia probably has a one-year target above 10 million for its E61 as well.

    That is very ambitious. Sometimes, a consumer-electronics niche blows up overnight, but going from annual volume of roughly 2 million to 20 million in two years would be historic.
    Link
  13.    #13  
    I agree. I don't know what Motorola is smoking, but I would like some of that too. No way will the Q emulate the Razr. Its a completely different market. I think this applies to the E61 also.

    Surur
  14.    #14  
    I have a personal suspicious that there are about 10 million pda geeks in the world and that the companies in the sector has been trading them between each other. They used to belong to Palm, then a lot migrated to WM, without actually growing the market. Then they moved to converged devices, hence the explosive growth of PDA phones like the Treo. However its all still the same people, just moving to different devices. Its a zero sum game, when one area or company does well the other suffers.

    Surur

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