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Old 10/14/2012, 10:30 AM   #21 (permalink)
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In reply. Redhat is only one of the few and there are only a few who make money out of open source by packing their services/ training and some 'licensed' pieces of technology into the open source package. You must understand that Redhat is selling into corporate. And corporations are interested in insurance, and risk management. The CIO is interested to pass the 'risk' of managing his infrastructure provided some cost savings. Redhat offers that. Do you think redhat will survive if it were selling redhat Linux versions to consumers? And by the way has any flavour of Linux gone mainstream in any sense? it's still Windows and now IOS. Why because majority of consumers probably the 80-20 rule just want a working OS and not have to fiddle with the innards. Apple was smart to build their IOS on a unix variant and put a nice layer on top making it easy for consumers to 'consume' the OS.
By the way red hat has been around since 1990s..and still its stuck at 1B revenue with a measly less than 200 mil net revenue - which is not alot for a software service company; if you benchmark with other so called software companies. And it's not an apple to apple comparison - different market segments because Redhat = enterprise and OWS is consumer.

2. I'd foresee ODMs (especially 2nd tier ODMs will think about using webos).. double edged sword. There are lots of 2nd tier Android phones from China... not all of them fantastic, but some of them are damn creative - with Phone + TV + MP3 player... However you do not really see it outside of China, and I only get to see it when a friend goes to China and buys one of these back. Frankly someone like Samsung will 'look' at it but ask themselves is it worth the risk? Do I have the resources to pump into grooming another OS? SHould I as samsung help Gr.am groom OWS? Should I risk damaging my relationship with google; and risk not getting r&D support etc from them?
Remember Samsung is in it for the $$, and right now it's Android which has proven to have the marketspace, share, technology, maturity of product etc.
No Commercial entity does charity in business..its a dog eat dog world.

3. Does Gr.am have the time to develop maturity into the product. Frankly do you think Gr.am will be able to match - performance, quality of the core system, hardware acceleration, and all the other core functionality stuff that makes a mobile OS strong. Not forgetting they'd need a 3rd party to do productivity apps?? And remember under WebOS Oh my we wait for how long for a productivity app???

I find it a bummer that HP had to dump Webos .... redevelop it into OWS and pretty much mess up the whole webos ecosystem. If they'd just refreshed the hardware with the Pre 3 design, I think they could have substained the marketshare - while getting the OWS out the door with a 2 prong approach. As it is right now, without any new hardware.... devs are leaving because of lack of clarity / revenue potential and mobile users are just moving to IOS and Android....
I agree with the fundamentals of your argument, the risk of taking on a new OS and HP's lack of real commitment thus far to webOS. I feel the need to correct your statements on Linux/iOS/Windows.

First, iOS is a mobile OS only used on iPhones/iPods/iPads. It is not a desktop OS. In reading your statement I believe you have iOS confused with MacOS, which is Apple's desktop OS.

Second, you ask if any Linux flavor has gone mainstream. You assert that none has, although you mentioned Android as being successful. Since Android is a Linux flavor and it is highly successful, you prove that your own assertion is dead wrong. This also leads me to believe that you don't really have an idea of what Linux is. Linux is an operating system kernel with some tools provided by the GNU Project. Android is Linux, webOS is Linux, Meego is Linux, Tivo is Linux, Linux runs on 60% of the servers that power the Internet and 90% of the worlds 500 fastest computers. You use Linux every time you do a Google search or make a call on an Android phone. Linux itself is highly successful. Try reading up on it before you comment:

Linux - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Last, in the battle of mobile operating systems, Google has a problem. Actually it is several problems. Google has not done a good job of defending Android to attacks from Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft has successfully extorted licensing fees from major Android ODMs. Some folks even believe that Microsoft is making more from Android then Google or the ODMs are making. Plus those ODMs are paying extra for Google's services (Play Store, Maps, YouTube) on top of Microsoft's licensing fees which totally negates the argument that Android is free. Google just recently started to care more about how Android looks. Before, vanilla Android looked atrocious. Google had a real problem with selling Nexus (vanilla Android) devices because of this. This also prompted HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and Amazon to skin the heck out of Android in order to make it palatable to the end user. Samsung, the majority maker of Apple hardware, went a little too far in making their skin look and behave like iOS and were successful sued by Apple. Google just sat on its hands and said that Samsung should have used the more vanilla (and unsuccessful) version of the Android UI. Google also shocked ODMs by purchasing Motorola (to secure patents it should have had at the beginning) making them believe that Google will push its latest and greatest on its own hardware first. Android is suffering on tablets because of a lack of polish in its tablet UI and apps. It is very telling that the only truly successful Android tablet, the Kindle Fire, does not look or behave like other Android tablets, Amazon is loosing money on the hardware and the OS and only making money on their services. Plus Amazon won't even put Android and their tablet OS in the same sentence.

I believe that open webOS still has a shot in the mobile space at Android's expense, even though it is a long one. Both will soon use the same version of the Linux kernel making the hardware transparent. The major problem I see with OWOS will be with apps. HP/Gram will have to execute a flawless strategy to get developers to use Enyo across all platforms (iOS, Android, Windows) and make the apps easily portable to webOS. HP is definitely not know for executing flawless strategies.
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Old 10/14/2012, 12:37 PM   #22 (permalink)
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The linux aspect is a bit of a red herring in regards to the end users, they don't care either way - just that the OS works and they have access to the content and apps that they want - so for me it's neither a positive or a negative it just is.


Really the fundamental questions haven't change - who is willing to take a chance on WebOS and who is willing to spend the hundreds of millions if not billions to compete against the marketing spend of the big players?

We need someone to step up to the plate for the first and then see what that player is willing to do about the second.
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Old 10/14/2012, 01:00 PM   #23 (permalink)
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The linux aspect is a bit of a red herring in regards to the end users, they don't care either way - just that the OS works and they have access to the content and apps that they want - so for me it's neither a positive or a negative it just is.


Really the fundamental questions haven't change - who is willing to take a chance on WebOS and who is willing to spend the hundreds of millions if not billions to compete against the marketing spend of the big players?

We need someone to step up to the plate for the first and then see what that player is willing to do about the second.
We were talking about ODMs, who care about the OS for monetary and support purposes, not the end user. Most end users couldn't tell you what OS their device is running, let alone care.

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Old 10/14/2012, 01:23 PM   #24 (permalink)
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We were talking about ODMs, who care about the OS for monetary and support purposes, not the end user. Most end users couldn't tell you what OS their device is running, let alone care.

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I don't think they care either, well not very much - the actual OS costs when compared to the amounts spend on device R&D, marketing and developing and supporting the ecosystems are not much. So you save a couple of hundred million on the OS? so what? In this market, if you are going to compete against Apple, Samsung and companies with a particular business model like Amazon, then you need to show up with billions to spend - that or don't bother.

Even the current also-rans like WP7 and BB10 are going to spend in the hundreds of millions if not billions simply to come last.

That's why for me - the missing piece is still a organisation with really deep pockets, really deep pockets - they need it to go two, three or even five years of sinking lots of cash into something that might not turn a profit. Looking at what current also-rans are spending, this needs to be a company willing to spending at least $300 million a year on marketing activities.

Last edited by CGK; 10/14/2012 at 01:30 PM.
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Old 10/14/2012, 01:45 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I don't think they care either, well not very much - the actual OS costs when compared to the amounts spend on device R&D, marketing and developing and supporting the ecosystems are not much. So you save a couple of hundred million on the OS? so what? In this market, if you are going to compete against Apple, Samsung and companies with a particular business model like Amazon, then you need to show up with billions to spend - that or don't bother.

Even the current also-rans like WP7 and BB10 are going to spend in the hundreds of millions if not billions simply to come last.

That's why for me - the missing piece is still a organisation with really deep pockets, really deep pockets - they need it to go two, three or even five years of sinking lots of cash into something that might not turn a profit. Looking at what current also-rans are spending, this needs to be a company willing to spending at least $300 million a year on marketing activities.
You know I mentioned what you covered in your last paragraph before in another discussion we had. I felt that HP needed to double down on WebOS and put a lot of money into apps and services. I think you disagreed with me on it. I also remember you peddling Windows as a viable #3 to Android and iOS. As a former Windows Mobile user and after watching the Kin and Zune sink, I did not think Microsoft had a chance. HP/Gram has to get serious about webOS for it to succeed. I think we both agree now that they need an infrastructure based on apps and services (something I think you disagreed with me on also in the past).

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Old 10/14/2012, 02:15 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Main problem with webOS and especially with Open WebOS is that HP is not willing to invest in apps and services for platform. With Android and WP apps and services are provided by Google and MS so ODM's have full ecosystem aviailable for them. That is why its not crucial for platform to be free of charge. Its more important what you get in package for your license fee.
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Old 10/14/2012, 02:27 PM   #27 (permalink)
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You know I mentioned what you covered in your last paragraph before in another discussion we had. I felt that HP needed to double down on WebOS and put a lot of money into apps and services. I think you disagreed with me on it.[B]

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Can't remember the conversation or why I said that at that time - but if you say I said it, I said it.

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I think you disagreed with me on it. I also remember you peddling Windows as a viable #3 to Android and iOS. As a former Windows Mobile user and after watching the Kin and Zune sink, I did not think Microsoft had a chance.
I'm a bit more negative about wp now but I still think it is a viable alternative (even though it hasn't sold well to this point) but not because I think I think it is going to be particularly successful but because I think RIM will go under and WP will carry on simply because Microsoft have other revenue streams to support it with - so it will be third by default rather than being a big winner - if that makes sense. It's not clear how much of the $1.8 billion allocated for the W8 push is for the phones but I best there is a decent chunk, plus Samsung is pushing a W8 phone plus Nokia will throw everything they have at it before the lights go out. It's quite scary to think that microsoft have given Nokia $250 million per quarter to a very limited impact.

Even RIM in it's death rattle is going to make it difficult for anyone else to get traction next year.


(and we haven't even mentioned Google, amazon and Apple! )
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Old 10/14/2012, 02:30 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Main problem with webOS and especially with Open WebOS is that HP is not willing to invest in apps and services for platform. With Android and WP apps and services are provided by Google and MS so ODM's have full ecosystem aviailable for them. That is why its not crucial for platform to be free of charge. Its more important what you get in package for your license fee.

Just so we are clear about this (and it might appear that I am splitting hairs) - HP isn't going to be doing anything as an entity is it?

Gram and whatever it has had invested in it is expected to do the heavy lifting - What I mean by that, the infrastructure is whatever Gram can provide with its current level of funding?
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Old 10/14/2012, 05:52 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Agreed. I don't see HP or Gram closing deals with publishers, record companies, music studios and online content providers, or making deals with big software companies. So, Gram will probably act as infrastructure provider.
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Old 10/14/2012, 11:06 PM   #30 (permalink)
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I think we're pretty much in agreement on the basics of how if every OWS is going to be successful. Right now the way i see it -- it's a looooong shot.
1. HP has divested Webos and the cost of investing in R&D of the OS, infrastructure and all the important cloud services to Gr.am. Does Gr.am have the pockets to do this? That I'm not sure.

2. Is any ODM going to buy into the 'lower costs' for OWS. Let me look at the pros and cons comparing with say Android and MS Mobility.

1. cost of licensing (Well MS can give it for free if it wants to, Google cannot give it for free because of cross-licensing with Microsoft, Gr.am can give it for a very low cost or package it with cloud services)
2. Market share. Webos 1% or less now. Android 50-60%?, WP - 5-10%. OWS - zero.
3. Infrastructure : I'd say Google has a win on this.
4. Developers : google again, MS second, OWS - zero now.
5. Maturity : Android, MS are way ahead (and I'm not comparing functionality). OWS - still baking.
6. Hardware pervasiveness : Android, MS ..OWS - still baking

I've not taken IOS into consideration...
BUT we can only HOPE right now...
maybe if HP does a U-Turn are rerelease Pre 3 updated it might survive the onslaught until OWS 2.0 is ready..well if Pigs can Fly lol.
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Old 10/15/2012, 01:04 AM   #31 (permalink)
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For me it is still not so clear, what the business model of Gram will be. Cloud Services? That can be a lot.

And I wouldn't so much compare OWOS and OWOS PE with Linux and Redhat.
I'ld rather compare it with Autordesk MapGuide Open and Autodesk MapGuide Professional (another piece of Software trying to get marketshare in a field that is covered by big competitors like ESRI and Intergraph).
The base software is open but does not have anything in it but the most basic functions. For everything else you have to buy the pro version.

I honestly don't expect much of a business model like this. The customer is no *****, especially when it comes to "how much functionality do I get for my money".

And I do think, that the whole thing is idle chatter, because as long as there is the black hole of app catalog, you won't whet any customers' interest in an OWOS device.

What Gram/HP seems to do at the moment looks to me, as if you are trying to get a carcompany to buy motor you created, but there is nothing yet to fuel it. What car company would buy such a motor (especially if it can get all the parts for free and can include the ideas into their own motors) and what customer would buy a car with a motor that can't be fueled?


I would be eager to see WebOS succeed and rise up again, but when I see, how Gram/HP are bridling the horse from the wrong end, I seriously doubt this ... but hey, maybe I will be proved wrong.
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Old 10/15/2012, 03:04 AM   #32 (permalink)
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Some good points, the only point I would make is that WebOS's maketshare is easy to work out - it is zero - a product that nobody is selling cannot have a share higher than that. The current user base is a bit tricker to work out..

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k4ever
I think we're pretty much in agreement on the basics of how if every OWS is going to be successful. Right now the way i see it -- it's a looooong shot.
1. HP has divested Webos and the cost of investing in R&D of the OS, infrastructure and all the important cloud services to Gr.am. Does Gr.am have the pockets to do this? That I'm not sure.

2. Is any ODM going to buy into the 'lower costs' for OWS. Let me look at the pros and cons comparing with say Android and MS Mobility.

1. cost of licensing (Well MS can give it for free if it wants to, Google cannot give it for free because of cross-licensing with Microsoft, Gr.am can give it for a very low cost or package it with cloud services)
2. Market share. Webos 1% or less now. Android 50-60%?, WP - 5-10%. OWS - zero.
3. Infrastructure : I'd say Google has a win on this.
4. Developers : google again, MS second, OWS - zero now.
5. Maturity : Android, MS are way ahead (and I'm not comparing functionality). OWS - still baking.
6. Hardware pervasiveness : Android, MS ..OWS - still baking

I've not taken IOS into consideration...
BUT we can only HOPE right now...
maybe if HP does a U-Turn are rerelease Pre 3 updated it might survive the onslaught until OWS 2.0 is ready..well if Pigs can Fly lol.

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Old 10/15/2012, 08:41 AM   #33 (permalink)
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To me, Gram can be a good idea.

"Marketshare blablabla"... "no odm blablabla"... all this arguments was the same against the Android in the begining...

Let's gonna wait, before say that is good or not?


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Old 10/15/2012, 11:06 AM   #34 (permalink)
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"Marketshare blablabla"... "no odm blablabla"... all this arguments was the same against the Android in the begining...
Except for that fact that Google had an existing revenue stream to support them while they tried to bring Android up from nothing - GRAM doesn't have that, this is the only revenue stream. Moreover, Android came about in a period where Android didn't exist - that is not say there were major embedded competitors within the marketplace.

The market is radically different from even five years ago.
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Old 10/15/2012, 11:55 AM   #35 (permalink)
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That is a very economic and elegant summary.

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Old 10/15/2012, 01:01 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Google buys Motorola Mobility
Microsoft is redefining itself as a "Devices and Services" company - (go to the Microsoft home page and look at what it says at the top of the browser bar). And, they have their own tablets coming.
Apple keeps chugging along and on track to sell 1 billion iOS devices by 2015
Amazon is looking to buy TI's mobile chip division.

Meanwhile HP thinks it will eventually have to develop a smartphone (but not next year) and will eventually release an Open webOS Professional Edition.
Well said.


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Old 10/15/2012, 01:48 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Yeah... That flip flop from Meg Whitman is confusing...

We need a smartphone to be competitive...

We are holding off on building a smartphone...


It's unclear what piece of the puzzle they have yet to unveil...
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Old 10/15/2012, 02:31 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Yeah... That flip flop from Meg Whitman is confusing...

We need a smartphone to be competitive...

We are holding off on building a smartphone...


It's unclear what piece of the puzzle they have yet to unveil...
It's called "The stall" - it's either one of two things - they don't have any strategy at all or she's waiting on something - more than likely to see how Windows 8/windows phone 8 does. The amount of cash that is being thrown at the sector is also more a concern, look at those figures for advertising alone:

Quote:
The big spenders

Microsoft

Annual advertising spend: $1.6bn

Promoting: Windows 8 software for tablets and PCs, Micosoft Surface tablet, Windows Phone 8 smartphone software

Samsung

Annual advertising spend: $2.7bn

Promoting: Galaxy SIII smartphone, Galaxy SIII mini smartphone, Galaxy Tab2 tablet

Amazon

Annual advertising spend: $1.4bn

Promoting: Kindle Fire HD tablet, Kindle Paperwhite e-reader

Google

Annual advertising spend: $1.5bn

Promoting: Nexus 7 tablet, LG Nexus 4 smartphone

Apple

Annual advertising spend: $933m

Promoting: iPhone 5, iPad mini, new iPad
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Old 10/15/2012, 04:08 PM   #39 (permalink)
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I've not taken IOS into consideration...
BUT we can only HOPE right now...
maybe if HP does a U-Turn are rerelease Pre 3 updated it might survive the onslaught until OWS 2.0 is ready..well if Pigs can Fly lol.
If HP had release the Pre3 in the US, it probably would've killed any chance that they had to succeed. IMO.
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Old 10/15/2012, 07:52 PM   #40 (permalink)
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If HP had release the Pre3 in the US, it probably would've killed any chance that they had to succeed. IMO.
any chance is better than the almost zero we have right now.

IMHO, i think they need would need to focus on the software, the Pre3 is still mid-range-ish.
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