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Google's not-so profitable android venture?
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Old 12/16/2011, 07:22 AM   #61 (permalink)
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What you are talking about there is cycles - The short version of my answer to that is - it depends - are we still seeing mobility cycles (with Palm OS, Windows Mobile and Symbian being in the last cycle) or is the market place starting to shake out like the desktop market where two big players will dominate for at least a decade?

If shakes out like the desktop market there isn't a lot to say, if it's still a question of cycles then there is something to talk about - but I see WebOS as part of *this* cycle rather than the next (Who the winner in the next cycle will be is hard to say).

Tied to this, if Google and iOS are following the history of this section, I have to wonder if in secret labs somewhere they are currently working on iOS and Android replacements to ensure that they dominate in the next cycle.


Even given that, the bottomline is that WebOS simply isn't even in the game until someone steps up and provides hardware to press into the hands of consumers - as I said on another thread, unless someone wants to rush out a piece of junk, we are surely looking at Q1 2013 (because the other sticker is it actually being open source) before we saw hardware. We could see it earlier but it will be from people like Coby.

None of the reasons for WebOS (as a commercial rather than hobbyist project) being a possible success matter until someone takes that step.

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Google is not defending its hardware makers in court versus Microsoft and Apple's patent onslaughts, putting the hardware makers in a weak position.
That's what the purchase of Motorola is for, so I'd expect to see some action once they take that company over (However that also creates the same problem that HP has - channel conflict with partners). Moreover, if Microsoft loses it's battle against B&N, that area will change greatly.

Last edited by CGK; 12/16/2011 at 07:30 AM.
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Old 12/16/2011, 08:00 AM   #62 (permalink)
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Here is quarter 2 tablet sales
IDC - Press Release - prUS23034011
And quarter 3 tablet sales
Tablet shipments miss targets but still balloon 264.5%, IDC says
HP was not number 2. The best they got was number 3 right after Samsung in the 3rd quarter.
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Originally Posted by Mikey47 View Post
Come on, let's get real on the whole #2 thing. The touchpad was the number two DEVICE. All you revisionist forget that there were 20 android tablets from several manufacturers right behind it. ...snip
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Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
I don't know of anyone that disagrees with you.
Engadget:
Android devices in total also saw a slight contraction, down from 33.2 percent to 32.4 percent. This is partly explained by the HP TouchPad's final hurrah, which rocketed the ill-fated webOS tablet up to third place with a 5 percent of share of tablet sales and an estimated 903,354 devices sold. Samsung maintained its Honeycomb tablet crown, nabbing 5.6 percent of all tablet sales.

IDC 12-15-2011

Courtroom:
Judge speaking: "In the matter of Touchpad being number 2 tablet, we find no evidence to support that claim. Case dismissed." (Judge strikes gravel)


Scene: Touchpad, upon hearing the Judge's verdict, slowly rises from the chair, and turns slowly towards the exit, touchstone in hand. (Scene fades to black).

Last edited by sinsin07; 12/16/2011 at 08:27 AM.
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Old 12/16/2011, 08:14 AM   #63 (permalink)
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On a good note, the Touchpad was less than point away from Samsung. Would have been interesting to have seen what would have happened if HP didn't cut the line so early. Hopefully they are taking note of the numbers.
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Old 12/16/2011, 08:35 AM   #64 (permalink)
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I love the gavel thing. Great work!

However, you are talking about the market this month. We all knew that since HP was not producing anymore TouchPads it would eventually fall from the number 2 spot hard. I'm amazed that it is still doing well enough to grab the number 3 spot. Not bad for something dead.

Mark my words, in two months when I say that the TouchPad had the number 3 spot 4 months after HP killed it, one of you will bring up current numbers and say I was wrong. Even though 4 months after it's death would be mid-December 2011 and not the time we will be having the discussion. I bring this up because I said that the TouchPad was the #2 tablet.....
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Old 12/16/2011, 08:38 AM   #65 (permalink)
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On a good note, the Touchpad was less than point away from Samsung. Would have been interesting to have seen what would have happened if HP didn't cut the line so early. Hopefully they are taking note of the numbers.
Yeah....(long sigh)
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Old 12/16/2011, 08:50 AM   #66 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by CGK View Post
What you are talking about there is cycles - The short version of my answer to that is - it depends - are we still seeing mobility cycles (with Palm OS, Windows Mobile and Symbian being in the last cycle) or is the market place starting to shake out like the desktop market where two big players will dominate for at least a decade?

If shakes out like the desktop market there isn't a lot to say, if it's still a question of cycles then there is something to talk about - but I see WebOS as part of *this* cycle rather than the next (Who the winner in the next cycle will be is hard to say).

Tied to this, if Google and iOS are following the history of this section, I have to wonder if in secret labs somewhere they are currently working on iOS and Android replacements to ensure that they dominate in the next cycle.


Even given that, the bottomline is that WebOS simply isn't even in the game until someone steps up and provides hardware to press into the hands of consumers - as I said on another thread, unless someone wants to rush out a piece of junk, we are surely looking at Q1 2013 (because the other sticker is it actually being open source) before we saw hardware. We could see it earlier but it will be from people like Coby.

None of the reasons for WebOS (as a commercial rather than hobbyist project) being a possible success matter until someone takes that step.



That's what the purchase of Motorola is for, so I'd expect to see some action once they take that company over (However that also creates the same problem that HP has - channel conflict with partners). Moreover, if Microsoft loses it's battle against B&N, that area will change greatly.
Agreed. That's why I think we have to be careful when we speak in absolutes. Apple is king now, the odds are against others, but it can be done. Someone has to step up and put it on hardware. HTC, a Windows Mobile phone maker, was that someone for Android even when everyone thought they were foolish in going against their prime OS. I am eager to see who it will be for webOS.

Hasn't the purchase of Motorola been over for months now? Where are Google's lawyers when HTC, Samsung, B&N, and (insert other Android hardware makers here) need them in court? Why is Google not counter-suing Microsoft or Apple using these patents? Also it is kind of late for HTC and Samsung who are now paying $10-15 per device to Microsoft. I think the only one that benefits from the Motorola purchase is Google. I don't think they care about the others they should be defending. Besides, Microsoft has pulled this crap before with Linux so Google and others should have seen this coming.
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Old 12/16/2011, 09:01 AM   #67 (permalink)
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Also it is kind of late for HTC and Samsung who are now paying $10-15 per device to Microsoft.
Well the context was different, HTC at the time were largely an ODM at the time, someone who turned out hardware that other people rebadged - they developed the G1 because google underwrite part of the cost (because they wanted reference hardware for android) and they saw it something on the upswing. Really, even if HP doesn't want to produce it's own hardware, if it wants the platform to take off, it might need to co-fund someone else putting out a WebOS device.

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Hasn't the purchase of Motorola been over for months now?
it's got many months to run as regulators in the US and Europe have to rubber-stamp it.

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Also it is kind of late for HTC and Samsung who are now paying $10-15 per device to Microsoft.
What's functionally the difference between paying Microsoft $15 a device to produce an android device or a WP7 device?

More broadly, with the question of patents, I still can't shake the feeling if the palm patents (those that they did not sell to Access) are so great, how come nobody wanted to buy WebOS and the patents off HP at a market price?
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Old 12/16/2011, 09:39 AM   #68 (permalink)
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And continuing our conversation about cycles - maybe we are all being a bit old-fashioned and looking at this the wrong way - as we see digital content lockers like this arise and buy pay more and more digital content is the question going to turn more and more from "what benefits does this OS have?" to "Does this OS connect to the digital locker where all of my stuff is?"

Who's going to pony up the money for the digital locker for WebOS - HP?
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Old 12/16/2011, 11:39 AM   #69 (permalink)
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the TouchPad was the #2 tablet.....
Keyword: was

Everyone here is extolling the virtues of that and thinking that HP was stupid for cancelling the product because it "was #2". Sorry, but even though it may have been the #2 device does not mean it was a success, nor that it had a bright future had it not been killed.
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Old 12/16/2011, 12:23 PM   #70 (permalink)
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Keyword: was

Everyone here is extolling the virtues of that and thinking that HP was stupid for cancelling the product because it "was #2". Sorry, but even though it may have been the #2 device does not mean it was a success, nor that it had a bright future had it not been killed.
Ok, what about the other tablets that were also competing with the iPad and ranked after the TouchPad? Why should HP have been the only one to give up and didn't have a future yet it was ahead of everyone else left in the iPad's wake?

It was ahead of the Android pack and was selling a little better, before the fire sale price, than Android tablets before HP killed it. That's the part no one understands.

Are you saying that no one else should try to compete against the iPad also?

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Old 12/16/2011, 12:30 PM   #71 (permalink)
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This is a new one to me - got a link to hard data that shows it was outselling the pack before the firesale?

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Old 12/16/2011, 12:52 PM   #72 (permalink)
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I love the gavel thing. Great work!

However, you are talking about the market this month. We all knew that since HP was not producing anymore TouchPads it would eventually fall from the number 2 spot hard. I'm amazed that it is still doing well enough to grab the number 3 spot. Not bad for something dead.

Mark my words, in two months when I say that the TouchPad had the number 3 spot 4 months after HP killed it, one of you will bring up current numbers and say I was wrong. Even though 4 months after it's death would be mid-December 2011 and not the time we will be having the discussion. I bring this up because I said that the TouchPad was the #2 tablet.....
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Apple continued to drive worldwide media tablet shipments in 3Q11. The company shipped 11.1 million units in 3Q11, up from 9.3 million units in 2Q11. That represents a 61.5% worldwide market share (down from 63.3% in 2Q11). HP entered and left the market in 3Q11 with its TouchPad product. The company shipped 903,354 units to grab a 5% share of the worldwide market, number three behind Samsung's 5.6% market share. After IDC updated its taxonomy to move LCD-based devices such as Barnes & Noble's Nook Color into the media tablet category, Barnes & Noble shipped 805,458 units to achieve the number four spot with a 4.5% market share. ASUS rounded out the top five with a 4% share.
I'd like to make a couple of distinctions:

1. This was a quarterly report.
2. These are shipped units, not sold.

On #2, there's a huge difference between shipped and sold units. Typically, a failed product ships much more than it sells and shipment numbers by themselves are by no means a reflection of how well a product did. So yes, while HP had 5% market share in shipped numbers, it doesn't mean that the sell-through puts actual consumer adoption at 5%.
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Old 12/16/2011, 12:57 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Mikey47 View Post
Keyword: was

Everyone here is extolling the virtues of that and thinking that HP was stupid for cancelling the product because it "was #2". Sorry, but even though it may have been the #2 device does not mean it was a success, nor that it had a bright future had it not been killed.
It's probably not even #4 anymore: Amazon selling over 1 million Kindles a week | News | TechRadar

Note this is actual sell-through, not shipments from the manufacturer to point-of-sale:

Quote:
Most successful product

"Kindle Fire is the most successful product we've ever launched - it's the bestselling product across all of Amazon for 11 straight weeks, we've already sold millions of units, and we're building millions more to meet the high demand," explained Dave Limp, vice president of Amazon Kindle.

"In fact, demand is accelerating - Kindle Fire sales increased week over week for each of the past three weeks. People are buying Kindle Fire because it's a simple, fully-integrated service that makes it easy to do the things they love - watch movies, read books and magazines, listen to music, download apps, play games, and surf the web."
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Old 12/16/2011, 01:35 PM   #74 (permalink)
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I'd like to make a couple of distinctions:

1. This was a quarterly report.
2. These are shipped units, not sold.

On #2, there's a huge difference between shipped and sold units. Typically, a failed product ships much more than it sells and shipment numbers by themselves are by no means a reflection of how well a product did. So yes, while HP had 5% market share in shipped numbers, it doesn't mean that the sell-through puts actual consumer adoption at 5%.
We know how many sold units there are, we got it straight from the horse's mouth - 750,000.
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Old 12/16/2011, 01:39 PM   #75 (permalink)
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And continuing our conversation about cycles - maybe we are all being a bit old-fashioned and looking at this the wrong way - as we see digital content lockers like this arise and buy pay more and more digital content is the question going to turn more and more from "what benefits does this OS have?" to "Does this OS connect to the digital locker where all of my stuff is?"

Who's going to pony up the money for the digital locker for WebOS - HP?
Please clarify your definition of a digital locker. WebOS is already a pretty well connected OS digitally. It syncs your information to servers at HP and comes with Box.net support for free. Synergy is a syncing service built into webOS also.

Edit: To expand on this point, webOS' connection to HP is what causes many new TouchPads to be slow and seem buggy. You need to let a new webOS device sit for a few hours on a good Internet connection for the initial sync, then reboot it. After that it runs like a champ.

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Last edited by k4ever; 12/16/2011 at 01:45 PM.
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Old 12/16/2011, 01:52 PM   #76 (permalink)
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It's probably not even #4 anymore: Amazon selling over 1 million Kindles a week | News | TechRadar

Note this is actual sell-through, not shipments from the manufacturer to point-of-sale:
This is my comment to that article on page 3 but it's the same reply to this one.:

I had read that article earlier and did bring it up because it's 1 million "Kindles" sold per week, not "Fires". The numbers that Amazon was a combination of the Kindle, Kindle Touch, and Kindle Fire. They aren't giving a break down of how much of each are sold. Analysts do have the Kindle Fire selling 3-5 million devices by the end of the year.
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Old 12/16/2011, 01:58 PM   #77 (permalink)
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This is my comment to that article on page 3 but it's the same reply to this one.:

I had read that article earlier and did bring it up because it's 1 million "Kindles" sold per week, not "Fires". The numbers that Amazon was a combination of the Kindle, Kindle Touch, and Kindle Fire. They aren't giving a break down of how much of each are sold. Analysts do have the Kindle Fire selling 3-5 million devices by the end of the year.
That's fine, but I don't see how you can dispute what I quoted right underneath that:

Quote:
"Kindle Fire is the most successful product we've ever launched - it's the bestselling product across all of Amazon for 11 straight weeks, we've already sold millions of units, and we're building millions more to meet the high demand," explained Dave Limp, vice president of Amazon Kindle.
This is pretty clearly referencing the Kindle Fire itself.
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Old 12/16/2011, 02:11 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Please clarify your definition of a digital locker. WebOS is already a pretty well connected OS digitally. It syncs your information to servers at HP and comes with Box.net support for free. Synergy is a syncing service built into webOS also.

Edit: To expand on this point, webOS' connection to HP is what causes many new TouchPads to be slow and seem buggy. You need to let a new webOS device sit for a few hours on a good Internet connection for the initial sync, then reboot it. After that it runs like a champ.

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Box.net is a rather slow third party enterprise solution for documents and the like - I'm talking about first-party content lockers - films and music, the sorts of things that consumer care about rather than enterprises - the sorts of things that Amazon, Google and Itunes all spending billions developing infrastructure for. Not sure how you claim that WebOS is a 'well-connected' OS on that level because it's not - there is nothing.
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Old 12/16/2011, 02:44 PM   #79 (permalink)
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I had read that article earlier and did bring it up because it's 1 million "Kindles" sold per week, not "Fires". They numbers that Amazon was a combination of the Kindle, Kindle Touch, and Kindle Fire. They aren't giving a break down of how much of each are sold. Analysts do have the Kindle Fire selling 3-5 million devices by the end of the year.
Yup,
I would add that there are a million returned. Mostly the Kindle Fires. Yup. quite a lot of them are going back.
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Old 12/16/2011, 02:58 PM   #80 (permalink)
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Box.net is a rather slow third party enterprise solution for documents and the like - I'm talking about first-party content lockers - films and music, the sorts of things that consumer care about rather than enterprises - the sorts of things that Amazon, Google and Itunes all spending billions developing infrastructure for. Not sure how you claim that WebOS is a 'well-connected' OS on that level because it's not - there is nothing.
That's why I asked for clarification. The cloud thing has been around for a while and hasn't taken off. Why? Because most people aren't connected to the Internet 24/7. Even on cell phones cloud services suffer from slow connections and cellular dead spots breaking links between client and server. Instead of building their own service, licence the ones from Amazon and/or Google for the select few user that will actually use them.
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