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  1.    #1  
    I'm genuinely curious -- I want to know what others think will be the state of things in Iraq one or two years from now.

    will it be democracy ? an islamic "republic" tied to iran ? a peaceful prosperous ally of the U.S. ? will it be 3 countries ??

    informed speculation is what enables us to prepare for the future --

    I want to hear what others believe !!


    (this will be a dogmatic free zone -- even by me !)
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  2. #2  
    I would think in two years the US will be out and Iraq will be a democracy and an ally of USA. I think the Iraqi's will evade a civil war - I think the majority of Iraqi's know the insurgents are to blame for all of the suicide bombers and the insurgents are doing this to try to create a civil war.
    Last edited by Advance The Man; 08/18/2005 at 01:15 PM.
  3. #3  
    In the South a Shia state with a gov't based on Islamic law. Hardly a friend to the U.S. but very oil rich.

    In the North, a Kurdish state (not like there hasn't been one there already the past decade) with lots of oil money. Serious potential to destabalize surrounding countries with significant Kurdish populations of their own.
  4.    #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by Advance The Man
    I would think in two years the US will be out and Iraq will be a democracy and an ally of USA. I think the Iraqi's will evade a civil war - I think the majority of Iraqi's know the insurgents are to blame for all of the suicide bombers and the insurgents are doing this to try to create a civil war.

    Advance -- what course do you see iraq progressing through to become a democracy ? -- do you believe the Sunnis will accept Shiite contol of a unified Iraq ? will Shia Islamic law be the foundation of this democracy ?? will elections bring forth leaders who want to unite rather than fragment iraq ?

    how much longer are our troops to be there ?

    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas
    In the South a Shia state with a gov't based on Islamic law. Hardly a friend to the U.S. but very oil rich.

    In the North, a Kurdish state (not like there hasn't been one there already the past decade) with lots of oil money. Serious potential to destabalize surrounding countries with significant Kurdish populations of their own.
    da thomas -what are you implying about how Turkey and Iran will react to a Kurdish nation state ??

    why would it matter if the Shiites get their own country ??
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    Advance -- what course do you see iraq progressing through to become a democracy ? -- do you believe the Sunnis will accept Shiite contol of a unified Iraq ? will Shia Islamic law be the foundation of this democracy ?? will elections bring forth leaders who want to unite rather than fragment iraq ?

    how much longer are our troops to be there ?

    I think it will be a bastardized democracy much different than ours. Shia Islamic law will infiltrate and they will miss the mark horribly on women's rights. I think in the end, Iraqi national pride will overcome the civil strife. I feel once they rise up against the terrorists, they will become one. I just can't imagine even the small town I'm in putting up with terrorists. I would think many of us would lash out at them. We would hunt and murder the terrorists. I truly believe this has to and will happen in Iraq - then and only then will Iraq be under control.

    I think our troops are there till Summer of 2007.

    btw, some of this is opinion and some hopeful. It would be really wonderful if we all of the sudden killed several of the Quada top leaders and the organization tumbled like a house of cards. Again, wishful thinking right now.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    da thomas -what are you implying about how Turkey and Iran will react to a Kurdish nation state ??
    Looking into my crystal ball with this hypothetical situation..........Turkey absolutely despises the Kurds. Iran also would have challenges being friendly neighbors. If it came to military confrontation in such a situation with either or both, it would put the US in an EXTREMELY hard position. Would the US support the Kurdish nation that it was responsible for the situation that created it? Would it support our Alley, Turkey? Would the US be willing to go toe to toe on the ground against Iran?

    Personally, I don't see this as a top running possibility, but if it did happen, it could potentially mushroom into a very delicate political and military tap dance.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    da thomas -what are you implying about how Turkey and Iran will react to a Kurdish nation state ??

    why would it matter if the Shiites get their own country ??
    Not stealing a response dat, but the Kurds are and have been treated sh!tty forever by Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran. They are the largest ethnic group in the world with no country of their own. If they were to get their own country - we would more than likely have to defend them down the road against Iran. This is another reason it is so important for Iraq to stay as one.
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    da thomas -what are you implying about how Turkey and Iran will react to a Kurdish nation state ??
    Here's a very informative article regarding the history of Turkish kurds and the armed struggle for an independent Kurdistan.

    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    why would it matter if the Shiites get their own country ??
    It would likely be a gov't based on Islamic law, hardly a bastion of Jeffersonian democracy in the middle east. In fact women, overall, would have less rights than under Saddam's Bathist regime.
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by Advance The Man
    Not stealing a response dat, but the Kurds are and have been treated sh!tty forever by Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran. They are the largest ethnic group in the world with no country of their own. If they were to get their own country - we would more than likely have to defend them down the road against Iran. This is another reason it is so important for Iraq to stay as one.
    But it's not going to. That's the point. Powell told Bush this directly.
  11. #11  
    I would like to hope that the Iraqi's develop whatever government that they chose and they remember the sacrifices we have made to that end.

    As a side note, this (IMO) will not happen until the people of Iraq (and its leaders) stop playing games with the terrorists living amongst them.

    Hobbes: I think everyone in the Middle East region realizes that we will go toe-to-toe with anyone there so Iran had better think twice. As far as the US dictating the nuclear policies of other sovereign countries...I'm torn (theres plenty of pros and cons to having that type of policy).
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  12.    #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by t2gungho
    I would like to hope that the Iraqi's develop whatever government that they chose and they remember the sacrifices we have made to that end.
    which Iraqis apprreciate out sacrafices ?? Who besides the Kurds ?? (Kurds we've betrayed horribly many times before. Remember, before Saddam, what the Shah did to them in the mid '70's with our acceptance. Perhaps they feel there is no one else.)


    As a side note, this (IMO) will not happen until the people of Iraq (and its leaders) stop playing games with the terrorists living amongst them.
    Are you saying that the Sunnis will reject the "terrorists" ??

    Why do they allow the "terrorist" to live amongst them now ??

    Do you expect them to eventually accept the american presence and the supremacy of the Shiites ??


    [QUOTE]Hobbes: I think everyone in the Middle East region realizes that we will go toe-to-toe with anyone there so Iran had better think twice. [QUOTE]

    after having been worn down by 3 ever worsening years in Iraq --with our army exhausted and our country angry with itself -- Why do you think Iran still fears us. What gives you confidence in our deterent credibility ??
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  13. #13  
    In 2 years...Six Flags Iraq

    Well behaved women rarely make history
  14. #14  
    Barye:

    1. I would hope the Iraqi's who got to vot in the elections this spring would remember our sacrifices.

    2. The people in general who support, protect and harbor terrorists who bomb their own civilians need to take a stand. The terrorists will keep using terrorism because its effective. It would be less so if they couldnt just meld back into the city after an attack.

    3. Although our military might be ready for a break...if needed, it would be ready to go right now.
    Last edited by t2gungho; 08/19/2005 at 01:20 PM.
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    #15  
    BARYE, the average Iraqi citizen appreciates the sacrifice that has been made for them. You will not see this in the MSM, however sit and talk to the men and women who have recently returned from a tour of duty. Yes, you will find the disgruntled member who only joined the military, reserve, guard etc 10 years ago for the extra paycheck, the educational benefit etc that will gripe but for the most part the individuals will tell you of the gratefullnes of the people on the street. When the media shows footage it is from something newsworthy (normally negative, death, destruction since that is what we fixate on) so of course people will be complaining, not necessarily about us but about the immediate situation such as a roadside bomb that just exploded. People will vent their anger and the media will protray that. But, talk to the people who spend 3-6 months with those same people and you will hear remarkable stories of gratitude.
  16.    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardio
    BARYE, the average Iraqi citizen appreciates the sacrifice that has been made for them. You will not see this in the MSM, however sit and talk to the men and women who have recently returned from a tour of duty. Yes, you will find the disgruntled member who only joined the military, reserve, guard etc 10 years ago for the extra paycheck, the educational benefit etc that will gripe but for the most part the individuals will tell you of the gratefullnes of the people on the street. When the media shows footage it is from something newsworthy (normally negative, death, destruction since that is what we fixate on) so of course people will be complaining, not necessarily about us but about the immediate situation such as a roadside bomb that just exploded. People will vent their anger and the media will protray that. But, talk to the people who spend 3-6 months with those same people and you will hear remarkable stories of gratitude.
    As far as my vision for Iraq, I would like to see the Iraqi people determine how they want to be governed, set up their form of goverment and be able to control their own land and lives. What is right for us or what is right for Canada or any other country is not right for them, however they deserve the oppurtunity to make that decision without a dictator telling them how to live. I would like to see foreign troops return home, but only when Iraqi people are ready to stand on their own. This will take a joint effort from all interested parties, if we pull out now they will be no better off than when we started.
    Cardio --

    what you wrote seems like what you aspire for how you would LIKE Iraq to be:

    "... able to control their own land and lives... they deserve the oppurtunity to make that decision without a dictator telling them how to live..."

    But are you saying that we'll see this a year or two from now ??

    How will the Sunni, Shiite, Kurd conflict be resolved ??

    The Sunnis are the pool in which the terrorist swim -- What must be done to placate the Sunnis to their new subservient position in Iraqi society ?

    The new iraqi "army" is undertrained, underequipped, undermanned. Its enlistees are motivated primarily by the desperately needed paycheck -- and they have often fled dispiritedly under fire.

    If you say that we will withdraw our forces when they are ready, what are you expecting to transform this Iraqi army in the next year or two ??

    As you wrote, Iraq had been a tyranical state -- one without freedom -- but also one without chaos and disorder.

    If forced to pick between freedom and Chaos -- which do you think the Iraqis will choose ??
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  17. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by hofo_mofo
    in about 1 - 2 yrs from now the name of Iraq will probably change from IRAQ to URAQ
    then from URAQ to ARAQ
    Well behaved women rarely make history
  18. #19  
    And they'll still get up every day, go to work or to the market, or do what people do, then they'll go home that night, and hope they'll get a chance to do it again the next day. Just like here.

    Except now it won't be Sadam's cops beating them, it'll be ordinary police. Just like here.

    Thread Crapper
    ~ August 16,2005 Poll-Master ~
    August 17, 2005 Century Club Member ~ August 29, 2005

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