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  1. NRG
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       #1  
    I am starting this thread for my coastal dwelling friends in the Gulf of Mexico region. Hopefully if it hits near you, you could give some of us an idea of what it is like to be in one of these terrible storms. I know what it is like, but some of the other folks across the globe may not. So this thread serves 2 purposes 1) To keep the folks updated to the ongoings of the hurricane 2) To discuss your thoughts and expriences of hurricane Dennis.

    000
    WTNT74 KNHC 080841
    SPFAT4
    HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

    PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
    PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

    AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST

    CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
    OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

    LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

    23.8N 82.8W 50 X X X 50 FT MYERS FL 7 18 X X 25
    25.8N 84.5W 5 27 X 1 33 VENICE FL 2 22 1 X 25
    27.7N 85.7W X 13 10 1 24 TAMPA FL X 15 5 X 20
    MUCM 214N 779W 72 X X X 72 CEDAR KEY FL X 5 11 2 18
    MUCF 221N 805W 80 X X X 80 ST MARKS FL X 1 11 6 18
    MUSN 216N 826W 32 X X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 15 4 20
    MUHA 230N 824W 55 X X X 55 PANAMA CITY FL X X 14 6 20
    MUAN 219N 850W 3 2 X X 5 PENSACOLA FL X X 7 11 18
    MYGF 266N 787W X 1 1 X 2 MOBILE AL X X 4 13 17
    MARATHON FL 41 X X X 41 GULFPORT MS X X 3 13 16
    MIAMI FL 11 6 X X 17 BURAS LA X X 4 11 15
    W PALM BEACH FL 2 6 2 X 10 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 11 13
    FT PIERCE FL X 6 3 1 10 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 9 9
    COCOA BEACH FL X 4 5 1 10 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4
    DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 6 3 11 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2
    JACKSONVILLE FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 29N 85W X 4 15 3 22
    SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X 1 15 4 20
    CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X 9 5 14
    KEY WEST FL 48 X X X 48 GULF 28N 91W X X 2 7 9
    MARCO ISLAND FL 18 11 X X 29 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4

    COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
    A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
    FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
    B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
    C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
    D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
    E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
    X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

    FORECASTER AVILA
    _________________________________________________________________

    Public Advisory #15a

    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 081149
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    8 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

    ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME
    BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
    HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...
    CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
    TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
    HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
    PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
    FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
    OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

    AT 800AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
    REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
    ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
    SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
    GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
    FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

    A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
    370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

    DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR.
    DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING
    THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST...
    ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
    LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
    TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA
    LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
    BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
    FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
    TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

    DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
    10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA
    MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
    IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
    AND MUD SLIDES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
    AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
    CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
    ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
    OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

    REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
    AT 11 AM EDT.

    FORECASTER STEWART

    _________________________________________________________________

    Hurricane Force Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    50 Knot Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone




    Strike Probabilities

    This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%




    Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule




    Wind speed probability table




    Wind speed forecast and probability chart




    Cumulative wind distribution

    Last edited by NRG; 07/08/2005 at 10:29 AM.
  2. #2  
    Good Info.
    It was raining in Tallahassee for a minute. Friends in Miami are without power but otherwise alright. No ill news from my friends in the Key's either.
    When the dark clouds gather on the horizon, when thunder and lightning fills the sky, When fate is but a glint in the eye of a fallen Rattler, And hopes are lost friends, When the sinew of the chest grows weary from those hard-charging linebackers, And the muscles in the legs grow tired from those hard-charging running backs ... You must remember that the Rattlers will... Strike, Strike, and Strike again.
  3. NRG
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       #3  
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 091448
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

    ...DENNIS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
    FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
    COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
    PEARL RIVER.

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST
    OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN
    MILE BRIDGE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
    COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
    SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE
    FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST
    OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING
    METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

    AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN
    DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
    MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 355 MILES...
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 480 MILES
    SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

    DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
    FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
    TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

    DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
    INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
    FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
    SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...
    WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
    TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
    THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF
    8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
    OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

    ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
    FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

    REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 83.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.

    INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
    BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.


    Hurricane Force Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    50 Knot Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone




    Strike Probabilities
    This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.




    Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule




    Wind speed probability table




    Wind speed forecast and probability chart




    Cumulative wind distribution

  4. #4  
    Well, I'm in Miami and we've had nasty rain and winds all night and this morning, so I can only imagine how bad the storm is as it nears the mainland.

    Pamela
    Using my treo 650 for business:
    DesignExtend.com
  5. NRG
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       #5  
    They are predicting Dennis to go to a Cat. 4 before landfall.

    Visible Sat. Image




    IR Sat. Image



    Water Vapor Sat. Image




    Public Advisory #22

    WTNT34 KNHC 092253
    TCPAT4
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

    ...DENNIS STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY TO DANGEROUS CATEGOTY 3 MAJOR
    HURRICANE...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
    TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
    BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
    COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
    AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
    LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
    ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

    A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
    SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
    BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

    DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
    MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST ON SUNDAY.

    REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
    THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD
    BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
    CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
    TO 175 MILES.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES. ANOTHER
    AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS.

    DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
    FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
    ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
    LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
    TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
    TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
    SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
    SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
    BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
    THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

    ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
    FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

    REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
    EDT.



    Hurricane Force Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    50 Knot Wind Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities - 120 Hours




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Cone




    Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone




    Strike Probabilities

    This display shows the probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the 72 hours beginning at the time indicated in the caption. The caption also provides the name of the tropical cyclone and the advisory number from which the probabilities were generated. Contour levels shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.




    Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule




    Wind speed probability table




    Wind speed forecast and probability chart




    Cumulative wind distribution

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