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  1. #1421  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    Great quote you cited samkim:

    "We have to acknowledge that we don't have reliable ways to predict what ice sheets will do, but that they will certainly react much more strongly to climate warming in the future," he says. "There is no reason to alarm people that the end of the world is coming. But there is no reason to reassure them, either, that there is nothing to worry about with the ice sheets."

    BINGO - we have a winner.
    Hold on folks...I agree with samkin and gojeda. Particularily the part about, "...there is no reason to reassure them, either, that there is nothing to worry about with the ice sheets."
  2. #1422  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    Did I say you did?
    Yes you did. You responded to whmurrays post that said, "...You are both pretty provocative..."

    That means you and I. And since you know you didn't post the FEMA article then common sense dictates that you thought I posted the article.

    It appears your mischaracterization of me and insulting my intelligence were not only wrong and unprovoked, but completely unfounded.

    Apology accepted.

    Let's move on.
  3. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1423  
    Quote Originally Posted by moderateinny View Post
    Yes you did.
    No I didn't. I know full well it was shortstuff that made that post. It was, however, roughly the point where the back and forth started (though your juvenile behavior started a few posts before that when you <cough> ignored <cough> me).

    Apology accepted.
    Was one offered?
  4. #1424  
    Quote Originally Posted by moderateinny View Post
    Yes you did. You responded to whmurrays post that said, "...You are both pretty provocative..."

    That means you and I. And since you know you didn't post the FEMA article then common sense dictates that you thought I posted the article.
    I stand by my statements immediately after that post. As if only the Right, when addressing the politics of climate change, gets a golden pass.
  5. #1425  
    Quote Originally Posted by moderateinny View Post
    Again, sage advise. He's more than welcome to ignore me as I've tried to do to him the last few days.
    C'mon, admit it. He yanks the chain and you jump. By ignoring you, you mean don't bait you. But you are watching; he chums the waters, and you can't resist.
  6. #1426  
    Quote Originally Posted by whmurray View Post
    C'mon, admit it. He yanks the chain and you jump. By ignoring you, you mean don't bait you. But you are watching; he chums the waters, and you can't resist.
    I admit he gets me riled up, yes. But I seriously wasn't paying attention to him for the last few days until someone tipped me off about his unfounded slight a few posts ago. It matters not though. You can plainly see he thought I posted the FEMA link and still cannot admit he is wrong.

    Moving right along...

    BTW - I enjoyed your dissertation on beer in the Red Sox thread. If you're ever in Munich again I like to stay at a little place north of Munich in Neufahrn, Hotel-Gasthof Maisberger. It has a very nice Bavarian restaurant attached and they serve great beer to wash down their yummy Bavarian food. Don't count on too many people speaking english there though...American's don't frequent this hotel so they're a little rough on english.
  7. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1427  
    Quote Originally Posted by whmurray View Post
    C'mon, admit it. He yanks the chain and you jump. By ignoring you, you mean don't bait you. But you are watching; he chums the waters, and you can't resist.
    What is funny is that he sits there, all indignant and pretends that an apology was issued when there wasn't one.

    LOL - an apology, of all things.....

    Lame....

    Anyway, someone made the comment that the right gets the golden pass on climate change.

    If that were the case, I wonder what allowances the "infallible" diety named Gore are accorded.

    Academy Awards? Nobel Peace Prizes? And don't forget his rabid, almost jihadist following (as we have seen on this very forum).
  8. #1428  
    I saw Newt on the Today show and found this link to his new book. I felt he presented in a balanced manner, yet, was spot on with his statements regarding the need for innovating to reduce carbon emissions and that business and environmental issues need not be mutually exclusive.

    A snippet from his book
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21520061/

    When asked about the media coverage of global warming and how worried we should be on a scale from 1-10, he said between 3-6. I'm closer to the 5-6, but found his fundamental assertion that we need to act to be refreshing.

    In the end, even if the odds of the situation being calamitous were only 30%, why wouldn't we try to mitigate the risk? I mean, do you think a car insurance company would insure you if you told them "there's a 30% chance I'll be wrecking this car soon"?
  9. #1429  
    Following up on our discussion of arctic ice melting, here is another report:
    18 September 2007 | Nature
    Arctic sea ice at record low
    Open waters in northern ocean highlight massive melting.

    Sea-ice extent — the total number of 25 x 25 kilometer square sections of ocean covered by at least 15% ice — in the Arctic Ocean melts from about 16 million km2 every March to a minimum sometime in September or October, the exact date normally only being evident in retrospect. The US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says the previous record absolute minimum was 5.32 million km2, set in 2005. This year has already reached 4.14 million km2 — the lowest since records began in the late 1970s.

    This has opened the Northwest Passage — the most direct shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, from Russia along the north coast of Canada to Europe. It is now navigable without an icebreaker.

    "I'm shocked daily, looking at the maps," said Marika Holland, sea-ice researcher at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, earlier this month. "Where it's going to bottom out, I wouldn't hazard a guess."

    “I'm shocked daily, looking at the maps.”
    Marika Holland
    Some models suggest that if the current trends continue, we'll hit a first summer day entirely free of sea ice sometime between 2050 and 2100 1,2 - dates accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Other studies predict it could happen even earlier3.

    "The observations and the climate models both point in the same direction, and that direction is we will reach a seasonal ice-free state. I wouldn't say it's inevitable; without some important changes I think that it's likely," says Holland. She adds: "In general, the models seem to be conservative compared to the observations."

    Going, going, gone

    As well as examining the area over which sea ice is prominent, scientists also look at the actual area of ice. Processing of NSIDC data by researchers at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, puts the previous 2005 record for area at 4.01 million km2, with this year's sea-ice area currently at 2.92 million km2.

    There are three ideas as to what could have caused such a dramatic drop this year, according to John Walsh, of the University of Illinois's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Ocean waters have been warmer in the past few summers, which would have encouraged melting. This summer has also been "unusually cloud free", again encouraging melting. Finally, he says, spring temperatures over the Russian section of the arctic were also higher than usual.

    Feedback effects may make recovery from this new low harder — ice reflects sunlight whereas open sea absorbs it. So less ice this year will militate against lots of ice next year, as well as boosting global warming.

    "This year does stand out as a jump downward," says Walsh. "I would say the odds favour an extreme year next year too."

    Thin ice

    Whether global warming should be blamed entirely for this year's low is not entirely clear. Variation in the factors mentioned by Walsh is not necessarily caused by climate change. But a warmer planet has resulted in thinner ice, which is more vulnerable to warm weather.

    Initial results from a German survey that were revealed last week show that arctic ice is approximately 50% of its 2001 thickness.
    As if to drive home how complex the sea-ice problem is, as the Northern Hemisphere hits record lows, at the other side of the world the sea-ice area is close to breaking the record for maximum area of 16.03 million km2.

    As well as opening up trade routes, the reduction of sea ice in the north will have consequences on local wildlife too. The most visible example of this will be polar bear populations; newly released reports from the US Geological Survey (USGS) suggest that two-thirds of the bears could be lost within 50 years because of reduced sea ice. Polar bears rely on the ice as a hunting platform and the USGS models predict a 42% loss of habit in the key summer breeding months.


    Figure legend: the long-term average summer sea ice extent is shown by the pink line, today’s ice extent is shown in white.National Snow and Ice Data Center
    Even for a society jaded by the continual breaking of climate records, the retreat of Arctic ice this year is stunning.
    http://www.nature.com/news/2007/0709...s070917-3.html
    References
    Johannessen, O., et al . Tellus A 56, 328-341 (2004).
    Walsh, J.& Timlin, M., . Polar Research 22, 75-82 (2003).
    Stroeve, J., et al . Geophysical Research Letters 34, L09501(2007).
  10. #1430  
    Nature Reports Climate Change
    Published online: 18 October 2007

    Atlantic invaders

    The melting of Arctic sea ice is blurring the biological boundaries between Pacific and Atlantic.

    It was in May 1999, during routine monitoring, that the tiny diatom was first found drifting in the ocean currents. Not an unusual observation on a plankton survey, only the species was in the wrong ocean. The north-west Atlantic was thick with phytoplankton of a Pacific species on its first visit for 800,000 years.

    "We were very familiar with the species in the Pacific," says Chris Reid, professor of oceanography at the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAFHOS) in Plymouth, UK, who led the survey. "But we had never seen it in the Atlantic before — it took a while for us to realise the significance."

    Reid's explanation — based on analyses of sea ice coverage — is that Neodenticula seminae migrated from the Pacific to the Atlantic via the Arctic as a direct consequence of the Arctic's diminishing ice cover. Melting of ice is now opening up the Northwest Passage between the Arctic and Pacific Oceans during summer and could result in a seasonal ice-free state in the region as the climate continues to warm.

    The threat is made all the more acute by recent satellite data which show the extent of Arctic sea ice at its lowest since satellite recording began in the early 1970s. With sea ice coverage reaching just 4.14 million km2 in September, the route was more open this summer than in 1998 when Neodenticula slipped through. If Reid is correct, it is the first species to have become established via this trans-Arctic pathway for thousands of years and a sobering reminder of the extent to which our climate is changing.

    Since its arrival, the diatom, commonly found in the most northerly reaches of the Pacific and the Bering Sea, has colonized the Labrador Sea between Greenland and Canada, as reported by Reid and colleagues in the September issue of Global Change Biology2. "An [ice] gate was opened in 1998 which has probably been closed for thousands of years and then it closed again immediately afterwards," he explains. "[The plankton] would have moved through the Bering Strait, through the [normally icy] Canadian archipelago and [south] into Baffin Bay." The completely open seawater in the summer months of that year — blown by winds accelerating the general east-west current flow — would have provided ideal conditions for the phytoplankton to grow and proliferate, he argues.

    Breached barrier

    The true significance of the event lies not in the single species introduction but in a barrier being breached between the two oceans. Viable pathways through the Arctic ice mean that many more Pacific species could follow suit, posing a threat to northern north Atlantic species by competing for resources and potentially playing havoc with the ecosystem.

    Although phytoplankton are among the ocean's smallest denizens, their size belies their impact. The phytoplankton species Coscinodiscus wailesii, which invaded the North Sea from the Indian and Pacific Oceans, for example, displaces indigenous species given the right conditions. And as many native phytoplankton feeders find it unpalatable, its presence has knock-on effects throughout the entire food web. "This is the trickle before the flood," says Reid, describing plankton as a "tremendous indicator" of what is happening in the ocean. "We could well see a complete reorganization of the fauna of a large part of the northern north Atlantic."

    This is the trickle before the flood. We could well see a complete reorganization of the fauna of a large part of the northern north Atlantic.
    Chris Reid

    Don Anderson, a Senior Biological Scientist and phytoplankton expert at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), who is unconnected with the paper, describes the work as "important" and agrees it reveals a worrying trend. "It addresses an issue that a lot of people have been talking about — the potential that this is going to happen — and here is an example that is really well documented," he says.

    Anderson stresses that the occurrence of species exchanges between the regions will be intermittent, but is also likely to increase as diminishing sea ice provides a more frequently accessible entry point. "It is a lot like opening the Panama Canal — but up north, and with Arctic boreal, rather than tropical, species exchanging back and forth." Phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish and shellfish larvae could all take a one-way trip through the Northwest Passage, Anderson suggests. He notes that organisms with dormant resting stages such as eggs or cysts could get part way in one year and then push further the next. "It is open to anything that could survive the trip....though it could take quite a few invasions for something to really take hold," he adds.

    But there is another potential explanation for how Neodenticula made the trans-Arctic trip into Atlantic waters: as a stow away in a ship's ballast water on a route that took the Zebra Mussel and many other invasive species to world domination.

    Reid and colleagues are confident that this is not the case, though they cannot completely discount the route. They argue that few ships take the Northwest Passage and any ice breakers using the route are unlikely to risk exchanging their ballast water in transit or in the open waters of the Labrador Sea. The shortest alternative shipping route, about 18,000 km via the Panama Canal, would probably prove too tropical for the sub-polar species to survive. "I think they make a very good case," says Anderson.

    South bound

    Hitched onto the back of helpful merchant ships, SAHFOS's Continuous Plankton Recorder charted the species spread southward in the Labrador Sea between 1999 and 2004. Yet, the Atlantic's newest resident hasn't just taken refuge in the Labrador Sea. Other researchers have independently found Neodenticula elsewhere, providing valuable contributions to the paper. Samples have been found twice in Icelandic waters, and perhaps more significantly, the species has made a beeline for the Gulf of St Lawrence in Canada.

    Michel Starr of Fisheries and Oceans Canada's Maurice Lamontagne Institute, a collaborator on the paper says "there was a massive occurrence in the Gulf of St Lawrence in 2001 [compared with the lower concentrations in the Labrador Sea]. The low-salinity waters seem to have favoured the development of massive blooms after introductory seeding via the Labrador current".

    The Canadians have recently confirmed the genetic similarity between the Atlantic and Pacific species. Starr says the impacts on the ecosystem have yet to be determined but the discovery highlights the potential for substantial changes to plankton diversity from reducing Arctic Ocean ice. "Such effects would be likely to impact all ecosystem levels and fisheries," he says. The Canadian government is continuing to monitor the invader.

    First past the post?

    But Neodenticula might not be the first plankton species to have made the crossing in recent times, suggests Peter Weibe, also of WHOI, who points to an occurrence3 of the Pacific zooplankton species Calanus marshallae off the Svalbard archipelago in 1994.

    One possibility is that Calanus could have travelled underneath the ice to the Atlantic side of the Polar Ocean. Zooplankton, unlike phytoplankton, does not depend on light, although Calanus marshallae itself normally lives on continental shelves rather than in the deep ocean. Calanus's seems to have been a one-off visit though. Unlike Neodenticula, which continues to be detected and seems to be well settled, the zooplankton has not been found in the region since.

    One potential impact of Neodenticula's arrival is a change in the 'biological pump' — the mechanism by which plankton transport carbon dioxide to the deep sea, enhancing the ocean's storage of the greenhouse gas. In the Pacific, the species is an important component of the biological pump, which has led some to speculate that its invasion could contribute to carbon storage in Atlantic waters. Lack of silicate — a nutrient essential for Neodenticula — in the Atlantic compared to the Pacific, however, is likely to be a limiting factor. As the effects of the invader on planktonic life in the Atlantic are unknown, it seems equally plausible that the pump could be disrupted through competition with existing species.

    Neodenticula's journey may also reveal new evidence for the unprecedented nature of today's warming climate. Fossil records show the only other time the species appeared in the north Atlantic was between 1.2 million and 800,000 years ago, introduced during an interglacial period. "It died out probably because of severe cooling," explains Reid, adding that oddly there is also no evidence of its presence in the north Atlantic during the Pliocene 'trans-Arctic interchange' of about 3.5 million years ago, when there was a huge extinction as Pacific species invaded the Atlantic.

    Martin Head, a palaeoclimate expert from Brock University in Canada, points out that it hasn't appeared in the last 800,000 years despite plenty of interglacials during this time. The Eemian interglacial of about 130,000 years ago was thought to have been much warmer than today, for example. "It is telling us that something very unusual is happening during this [current] interglacial," says Head. "The reason could be those interglacials were not as warm as now."


    Figure legend: Melting of Arctic sea ice has opened the Northwest Passage in summer, providing a route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for invasive species
    http://origin.www.nature.com/climate...e.2007.61.html
  11. #1431  
    And to rebut previous statements that antarctic ice is not melting, here is a recent study which shows that the coastal waters around antarctica are warming and the ice shelfs are indeed melting farther inland and at higher elevations than ever before recorded.

    Nature Reports Climate Change
    Published online: 11 October 2007

    Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L18504 (2007)

    Antarctic snowmelt is occurring farther inland and at higher altitude than previously observed, according to a new analysis of satellite observations.

    A team led by Marco Tedesco at the University of Maryland, US, and NASA mapped the extent and duration of Antarctic melting continent-wide over 20 years using microwave satellite imagery. Unlike other satellite instruments that use visible or infrared data, the sensors can measure the microwave radiation naturally emitted by snow and ice, can see through clouds, and can even detect subsurface melting, day and night.

    The data show that from 1987 to 2006, Antarctica, as a whole, cooled, but in some years, coastal areas became warmer. The greatest extent and duration of melting was observed at the Ross Ice Shelf — the continent's largest ice shelf — where the researchers detected episodes of persistent melting lasting three or more days, starting in 1991–1992. In early 2005, the persistent melt reached nearly 900 kilometres from the coast and an altitude of 2 kilometres in the Transantarctic Mountains — farther inland and higher than ever before recorded. Ice shelves slow the flow of glaciers, and a weakened Ross Ice Shelf could allow much greater quantities of inland ice to reach the ocean, potentially resulting in a significant rise in sea level.

    http://origin.www.nature.com/climate...e.2007.59.html
  12. #1432  
    finally, more satellite evidence showing the melting of the antarctic ice cap published in the journal Science.


    Figure legend: Not captured by ice-sheet models. (Top) The Larsen B ice shelf along the Antarctic Peninsula on 31 January 2002. (Bottom) A large section has disintegrated, 5 March 2002. Glaciers behind the collapsed section of the ice shelf subsequently accelerated their discharge into the ocean, apparently because of the loss of buttressing by the ice shelf. Neither rapid collapse nor buttressing are captured by ice-sheet models, and both could substantially affect the rate of future sea-level rise as larger ice shelves to the south in West Antarctica warm.

    This is accompanied by an interesting discussion of global warming policy.
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten.../317/5844/1505
    Last edited by cellmatrix; 10/30/2007 at 09:05 AM.
  13. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1433  
    Here are some studies that contradict the notion that Antarctica is melting, with some commentary regarding the recent large "break offs" of the ice shelf in the past few years.

    The first study comes to us via National Geographic:

    Snowfall amounts in Antarctica have not increased for the past 50 years, according to a new study.

    The finding suggests that Antarctica's snowfall is not slowing the sea level rise caused by global warming, as most climate models predict. It also supports a theory that the icy continent is mostly isolated from the rest of the world's climate system.

    "Antarctica is at a really strange place within the global climate system at the moment," said Andrew Monaghan, a research associate at the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University in Columbus.

    "Annual temperatures haven't changed a whole lot over the continent as a whole."

    Monaghan and an international team of scientists combined data from ice cores, snow stakes, and computer models to obtain a 50-year snowfall record for Antarctica. They found that, like the temperature, the snowfall record showed no significant change.

    The team reports the finding in today's issue of the journal Science.

    Claire Parkinson, a climatologist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, said the discovery suggests that there is much left to learn about Antarctica's climate. "Our understanding of what should be going on [in Antarctica] is not as complete as we might want," she said.

    Prediction Versus Reality

    Most climate models predict that snowfall in Antarctica would help offset the melting of glaciers on the continent's edges and elsewhere in the world.

    The global sea level is currently rising at about 0.1 inch (2.8 millimeters) a year. Global temperatures have risen, on average, about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degree Celsius) over the past century.

    The Antarctic Peninsula, a 745-mile (1,200-kilometer) arm of land that juts north toward South America, has warmed by about 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) since 1950.

    Chunks of ice the size of small U.S. states have disintegrated there in recent years. But aside from the Antarctic Peninsula, the annual surface temperature over Antarctica as a whole has remained essentially the same for the past 50 years, Monaghan says.

    Some studies suggest a slight cooling since the 1970s; others suggest a slight warming since the 1960s.

    "But they are not statistically significant," he said. "You can't say the trend is different than zero." The same goes for snowfall, he says.

    In Science, Monaghan and colleagues write, "[t]here has been no significant change in snowfall since the 1950s."

    Isolated Continent

    Richard Alley is a glaciologist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park. He explains that warmer air holds more moisture, which in the cold Antarctic should fall as snow, according to climate models.

    "But the Antarctic is especially complex, in part because of the ozone hole," he said.

    Previous research has found the ozone hole—a gap in or thinning of the upper atmosphere's ozone layer—has contributed to changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica. The changes are causing the interior to cool and the Antarctic Peninsula to warm.

    Monaghan likened the circulation pattern to a curtain around Antarctica, isolating the bulk of the continent from the rest of the global climate system.
    As the ozone hole recovers, he adds, the study suggests that temperatures in Antarctica should come in line with the rest of the Southern Hemisphere. "So it's important to figure out, if we see that, how snowfall changes and what impact it will have on sea level," he said.

    Snowfall Records

    Monaghan said he is confident that the 50-year snowfall record his team collected is scientifically robust.

    Though the ice core and snow stake data are sparse, researchers were able to fill in the voids using a weather model like those used to create the forecasts on the evening news. The scientists then performed a variety of statistical analyses on the data and recompiled the data in different ways.

    "We kept getting the same answer over and over," Monaghan said. "We're pretty sure it's a good answer." Jay Zwally, a glaciologist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, says the result makes sense. In an upcoming study on Antarctica's ice sheet, he and colleagues reach a similar conclusion.
    "As we saw it, there has not been a significant increasing trend in Antarctic snowfall, except in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula," he said. But when global temperature changes catch up in the rest of Antarctica, especially the East Antarctic ice sheet, he added, "we'll likely see an associated increase in precipitation."

    According to Monaghan, the year-to-year and decade-to-decade change in Antarctic snowfall is so large that "unfortunately, it might take a while to figure out how Antarctica is fitting into the larger climate change picture."

    Parkinson, also of NASA's Goddard Center, summed it up this way: "We've got a long way to go before we fully understand what's going on here."

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...th-pole_2.html

    The second study comes to us from the School of Climate Physics at University College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation, Dr. Wingham.

    But much confounding evidence exists. As one example, at the South Pole, where the U.S. decades ago established a station, temperatures have actually fallen since 1957. Neither is Antarctica's advance or retreat a new question raised by the spectre of global warming: This is the oldest scientific question of all about the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Enter Duncan Wingham, Professor of Climate Physics at University College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling. Dr. Wingham has been pursuing this polar puzzle for much of his professional life and, but for an accident in space, he might have had the answer at hand by now.

    Dr. Wingham is Principal Scientist of the European Space Agency's CryoSat Satellite Mission, a $130-million project designed to map changes in the depth of ice using ultra-precise instrumentation. Sadly for Dr. Wingham and for science as a whole, CryoSat fell into the Arctic Ocean after its launch in October, 2005, when a rocket launcher malfunctioned. Dr Wingham will now need to wait until 2009 before CryoSat-2, CryoSat's even more precise successor, can launch and begin relaying the data that should conclusively determine whether Antarctica's ice sheets are thinning or not. Apart from satellite technology, no known way exists to reliably determine changes in mass over a vast and essentially unexplorable continent covered in ice several kilometres thick.

    But CryoSat was not the only satellite available to polar scientists. Dr. Wingham has been collecting satellite data for years, and arriving at startling conclusions. Early last year at a European Union Space Conference in Brussels, for example, Dr. Wingham revealed that data from a European Space Agency satellite showed Antarctic thinning was no more common than thickening, and concluded that the spectacular collapse of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula was much more likely to have followed natural current fluctuations than global warming.

    "The Antarctic Peninsula is exceptional because it juts out so far north," Dr. Wingham told the press at the time. As well, scientists have been drawn to the peninsula because it is relatively accessible and its climate is moderate, allowing it to be more easily studied than the harsh interior of the continent. Because many scientists have been preoccupied with what was, in effect, the tip of the iceberg, they missed the mass of evidence that lay beneath the surface.

    "One cannot be certain, because packets of heat in the atmosphere do not come conveniently labelled 'the contribution of anthropogenic warming,' " Dr. Wingham elaborated, but the evidence is not "favourable to the notion we are seeing the results of global warming".

    Last summer, Dr. Wingham and three colleagues published an article in the journal of the Royal Society that casts further doubt on the notion that global warming is adversely affecting Antarctica. By studying satellite data from 1992 to 2003 that surveyed 85% of the East Antarctic ice sheet and 51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet (72% of the ice sheet covering the entire land mass), they discovered that the Antarctic ice sheet is growing at the rate of 5 millimetres per year (plus or minus 1 mm per year). That makes Antarctica a sink, not a source, of ocean water. According to their best estimates, Antarctica will "lower [authors' italics] global sea levels by 0.08 mm" per year.

    If these findings are validated in future by CryoSat-2 and other developments that are able to assess the 28% of Antarctica not yet surveyed, the low-lying areas of the world will have weathered the worst of the global warming predictions: The populations of these areas -- in Bangladesh, in the Maldives, and elsewhere -- will have found that, if anything, they can look forward to a future with more nutrient-rich seacoast, not less.

    http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/s...2b95c45dcf&k=0
  14. #1434  
    A valuable resource for those with an interest in arctic/antarctic global warming, courtesy of the editors of Science magazine:

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...;315/5818/1513
  15. #1435  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    The second study comes to us from the School of Climate Physics at University College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation, Dr. Wingham.

    But much confounding evidence exists. As one example, at the South Pole, where the U.S. decades ago established a station, temperatures have actually fallen since 1957. Neither is Antarctica's advance or retreat a new question raised by the spectre of global warming: This is the oldest scientific question of all about the Antarctic ice sheet.

    Enter Duncan Wingham, Professor of Climate Physics at University College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling. Dr. Wingham has been pursuing this polar puzzle for much of his professional life and, but for an accident in space, he might have had the answer at hand by now........
    Duncan Wingham clearly acknowledges that Antarctica is shrinking.

    Quote Originally Posted by Science 16 March 2007:
    Vol. 315. no. 5818, pp. 1529 - 1532

    Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

    Andrew Shepherd and Duncan Wingham

    After a century of polar exploration, the past decade of satellite measurements has painted an altogether new picture of how Earth's ice sheets are changing. As global temperatures have risen, so have rates of snowfall, ice melting, and glacier flow. Although the balance between these opposing processes has varied considerably on a regional scale, data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year. This is only a modest contribution to the present rate of sea-level rise of 3.0 millimeters per year. However, much of the loss from Antarctica and Greenland is the result of the flow of ice to the ocean from ice streams and glaciers, which has accelerated over the past decade. In both continents, there are suspected triggers for the accelerated ice discharge—surface and ocean warming, respectively—and, over the course of the 21st century, these processes could rapidly counteract the snowfall gains predicted by present coupled climate models.
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten.../315/5818/1529
  16. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1436  
    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    Duncan Wingham clearly acknowledges that Antarctica is shrinking.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten.../315/5818/1529
    The ESA will not be able to launch a satellite until 2009 that will accurately measure Antarctica's mass.

    Secondly...

    "The authors reference the third assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Church and Gregory, 2001) which provided a partial offset to the global sea level rise due to Antarctic melting since the last glacial maximum with a 20th century fall due to increased snowfall. The authors note, however, that the assessment relied on models that include “neither ice streams nor the Peninsula warming, and the data show that both have dominated at least the late twentieth century ice sheet.” Still, the authors reiterate that even in a worst case scenario “Antarctica has provided, at most, a negligible component of observed sea-level rise.”



    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/in...rctic-melting/
    Last edited by gojeda; 10/30/2007 at 12:48 PM.
  17. #1437  
    According to Dr. Duncan (who you brought up in the first place), in his own 2007 Science article, he estimates that antarctic melting contributes about 15% of the rise in sea levels (.35 mm out of total 3.0 mm annual rise). 15% is not negligible in my view.
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten.../315/5818/1529
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    The ESA will not be able to launch a satellite until 2009 that will accurately measure Antarctica's mass.
    Secondly...

    "The authors reference the third assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Church and Gregory, 2001) which provided a partial offset to the global sea level rise due to Antarctic melting since the last glacial maximum with a 20th century fall due to increased snowfall. The authors note, however, that the assessment relied on models that include “neither ice streams nor the Peninsula warming, and the data show that both have dominated at least the late twentieth century ice sheet.” Still, the authors reiterate that even in a worst case scenario “Antarctica has provided, at most, a negligible component of observed sea-level rise.”



    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/in...rctic-melting/
    And I'm sorry but the claims from your blog which were arrived at through paraphrasing a 6 year old article do not really convince me otherwise.
  18. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1438  
    The remarks from Wingham that I cited (the canada.com link) were are whopping 1 month older than yours.
  19. #1439  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    The remarks from Wingham that I cited (the canada.com link) were are whopping 1 month older than yours.
    No worries, with the canadian article there was no quoting of old studies, but rather the quoting of Wingham's work out of context in little snippets to make a particular point. In that instance, the canadian article was trying to portray Wingham as a global warming denier when in fact, his own article in Science clearly shows he is not.
  20. gojeda's Avatar
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    #1440  
    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    No worries, with the canadian article there was no quoting of old studies, but rather the quoting of Wingham's work out of context in little snippets to make a particular point. In that instance, the canadian article was trying to portray Wingham as a global warming denier when in fact, his own article in Science clearly shows he is not.
    I think your article, and mine, shows that the man is rather undecided on the whole issue - which means that science is not there at this point in time.

    This has been my point all along.

    BTW - it seems that many models point to the Western Peninsula experiencing some warming, which is being offset by incresed precipitation elsewhere on the continent.

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