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  1.    #1  
    Cell Phones. Polls often exclude them. I hypothesize those who solely use cellphones (college kids, for instance) are more likely to vote Kerry. Therefore, Kerry will win.
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by KRamsauer
    Cell Phones. Polls often exclude them. I hypothesize those who solely use cellphones (college kids, for instance) are more likely to vote Kerry. Therefore, Kerry will win.
    Well that certainly has more substance than any reason I have heard from Kerry himself.
  3. #3  
    I've been thinking that for a while. I really think the 18-24 crowd is going to pick our President this year, for a change.

    Also, the Packers beat the Redskins today, so Kerry's a lock.
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  4. #4  
    "Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points."
  5. #5  
    Nice theory. Kerry campaign has been peddling it. One problem: Pollsters have already taken account for this. Most of them add the exchanges and area codes for cell phones and randomly sample them in the polls.

    How about this for the PA polls: The Amish are highly energized for the President. They have registered to vote in huge numbers, and pretty much 100% support Bush. And, of course, they have no phones at all!

    (Of course, if they saw the Treo, they might re-think that anti-technology thing altogether)
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas
    ... likely voters...
    Likely voters have never elected anyone. It's the ones who get out and actually vote that count and most of the 18-29 year olds usually have something better to do.
    “There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.”
    — Ed Howdershelt
    "A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have."- Thomas Jefferson
  7. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by MikeElmendorf
    Nice theory. Kerry campaign has been peddling it. One problem: Pollsters have already taken account for this.
    That's just not true. At least not according to Zogby, who was on the Daily Show last week and said as such. He said he thought Kerry was going to take it because those voters just aren't polled.

    Obviously, he's not unbiased (he has an opinion), and what he says on TV doesn't need to be as accurate (or honest, anyway... I don't know that I believe any polls, but I believe most of the pollsters try to do it right) as his polling.

    Anyway, we'll find out Tuesday. Well, hopefully.
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  8. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Woof
    Likely voters have never elected anyone. It's the ones who get out and actually vote that count and most of the 18-29 year olds usually have something better to do.
    Here's one 25 year old who can't think of anything better or more important to do on Tuesday.
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    #10  
    If you read the fine print of most of the polls, they through out the voter turn out factor. This in combination with the "likely voter" sample, makes these numbers highly suspect. The conspiracy theorist in me wants to believe that the politicians want us to believe the elections are a dead heat so that we will accept it when the courts, not the voters, decide the next president.
  10. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by metsfan
    Here's one 25 year old who can't think of anything better or more important to do on Tuesday.

    Ok so that's one.
    “There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.”
    — Ed Howdershelt
    "A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have."- Thomas Jefferson
  11. #12  
    This 26 year-old is going to be partying in New Orleans next Tuesday. That's why I voted last week.

    Nareau

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