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  1. #81  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Well that's done.
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    You've been saying that for a while now.

    I have a feeling it'll be entirely up to Hillary to decide when it's done.
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Because it's been done for a while. Lovely thing about metrics, they're easy to calculate.
    Da...it is only easy to calculate if one, all components use the same rules of math and two, if the variable in question cares about the relationships of cause and effect around it.

    So your fork in and done claim has been continuing to cook for weeks or months later. Do not get me wrong....I do not disagree with you in the reality of the situation. But it is NOT done until Hillary says it is done. And that WILL NOT be until she can no longer apply her own version of math to the Super Delegates and does not have a crusade cause (Flor & Mich) to champion for. Once one or both is taken away.....ONLY THEN will Hillary throw in the towel.

    This could happen as soon as this next Tuesday night or go all the way to the convention as Hillary stated yet again last night.
  2. #82  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    Da...it is only easy to calculate if one, all components use the same rules of math and two, if the variable in question cares about the relationships of cause and effect around it.

    So your fork in and done claim has been continuing to cook for weeks or months later. Do not get me wrong....I do not disagree with you in the reality of the situation. But it is NOT done until Hillary says it is done. And that WILL NOT be until she can no longer apply her own version of math to the Super Delegates and does not have a crusade cause (Flor & Mich) to champion for. Once one or both is taken away.....ONLY THEN will Hillary throw in the towel.

    This could happen as soon as this next Tuesday night or go all the way to the convention as Hillary stated yet again last night.
    Flor & Mich are done as of yesterday.

    There is no argument other than elected delegates. The super delegates know they can't rip the win by rules away from Obama. Hillary ruined her chance at wresting a VP spot with her Kennedy assassination comment. We're done here.
  3. #83  
    Let's also remember that Hillary stated the Michigan primary would not be counted but when she gets behind she starts clamoring for "voters rights" blah blah blah. Classless.

    Oct 11 2007, Hillary Clinton on New Hampshire public Radio;
    "You know, it's clear, this election they're having [in Michigan] is not going to count for anything."


    She is the least common denominator. Harold Ickes is a slimeball.
  4. #84  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Flor & Mich are done as of yesterday.

    There is no argument other than elected delegates. The super delegates know they can't rip the win by rules away from Obama.
    Again, no matter how many times you tell yourself or others that it is done (even if it is all but true)....again unless Clinton announces that she agrees it is done, it is NOT done. There IS still an argument......


    The Florida decision, which follows the pro-Clinton results of that state's primary, was greeted by virtually all sides as an acceptable compromise on a thorny issue. But Clinton backers vowed to fight the Michigan decision, which gave the New York senator a 10-delegate edge over Obama in a state where his name didn't appear on the primary ballot.

    "Today's results are a victory for the people of Florida, who will have a voice in selecting our party's nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party's convention," said a joint-statement from Clinton advisers Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy. "[But] we strongly object to the committee's decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan's delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan."

    ---------------

    During the daylong committee meeting, supporters of Clinton, who came out ahead in both votes despite the fact the states had been penalized for moving their primaries earlier in the season, pushed the committee to give each delegate a full vote and to count the election results as they were registered.

    "I feel like we should not penalize them for something they did not cause and couldn't prevent," said Alice Huffman, a California superdelegate for Clinton...

    -----------

    Clinton supporters interrupted the proceedings, loudly chanting "Denver! Denver!" Denver is the site of the Democratic convention, where Clinton could appeal any decision made by the committee.

    FULL ARTICLE
    Clinton’s campaign has also said it is reserving the right to challenge the decision concerning Michigan’s delegates. That decision on Saturday by the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee gave Clinton 69 delegates to Obama’s 59 even though he wasn’t on the ballot in the state. Florida’s entire delegation will be seated but each delegate will only get half a vote.

    FULL ARTICLE
    It looks like the Clinton team is going to continue the debate for Mich as LONG as it takes to take it to Denver. And they cannot do that if Clinton drops out of the race.


    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Let's also remember that Hillary stated the Michigan primary would not be counted but when she gets behind she starts clamoring for "voters rights" blah blah blah. Classless.

    Oct 11 2007, Hillary Clinton on New Hampshire public Radio;
    "You know, it's clear, this election they're having [in Michigan] is not going to count for anything."


    She is the least common denominator. Harold Ickes is a slimeball.
    Like anything Bill or Hillary have ever stated in the past would influence what they need to do now for immediate and short term political gain. In my observations, the Clintons are experts as opportunists. Do what it takes to gain short term political gain now. She said that then because it was for political gain at the time. She is saying they do matter now for her political gain now.
  5. #85  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    Again, no matter how many times you tell yourself or others that it is done (even if it is all but true)....again unless Clinton announces that she agrees it is done, it is NOT done. There IS still an argument......
    No, Tuesday night the number of delegates will be met. The candidate will be Obama. The Clintons may have had a window to demand the Vice but after the assassination comment and the Vanity Fair article, they are in a VERY weakened position. They will be lucky to be allowed to campaign for Obama to try and save a shred of her future and his legacy.
  6. #86  
    While I agree that Obama will probably get the Democrat nominiation, it seems to me that there are only two real milestones where one could declare this as a done deal.

    1. Hillary concedes. Many will disagree, but I see this as highly unlikely. It is contrary to her persona and track record.

    2. The convention delegates actually cast their votes and one candidate receives the requisite number to win the nomination. I say requisite number because with all the seating/not-seating MI and FL delegates, no one can really say who will be seated until that actually happens, too.

    Just as the presidential contest is not actually over until the Electoral College actually casts their votes and there *could* be faithless electors, the Democrat candidate is not selected until the delegates actually vote and make a selection. Yes, some are legally bound to vote for a specified candidate. But not all, and that may only hold for a first ballot. After that all bets are off.

    I can see a path (low proability, but real nonetheless) whereby the contest goes to the convention and neither candidate gets the nod on the first vote. Should that come to pass, things will get very interesting, very quickly. The arm-twisting and politicing to date would pale by comparison.

    Until that final vote actually happens, I do not put any tactic beyond any candidate (from any party). Particularly Hillary.

    Truth be told, if Hillary and Obama were more different in their positions, this might well have been over long ago. As it is, too many voters for my taste are making a choice based on inapproptiate criteria such as sex or race.

    Methinks we have been the recipients of a Chinese curse....
  7. #87  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    No, Tuesday night the number of delegates will be met. The candidate will be Obama. The Clintons may have had a window to demand the Vice but after the assassination comment and the Vanity Fair article, they are in a VERY weakened position. They will be lucky to be allowed to campaign for Obama to try and save a shred of her future and his legacy.
    One thing is for sure, we will know by Friday how far this plays out... I'm thinking she is out by Friday... maybe even sometime that weekend... but I'm thinking by Friday the delegates should have made their moves and she should be sitting on the beach with a cool drink on Sat... with bill running behind some 19-year-old.

    I have a feeling even if she does concede and starts to promote obama, her supporter will not be able to let go... she has a lock on them.... I think it will be like that time Steve Jobs had to announce Bill Gates at Mac World... lol... that was ssssooo funny... die-hard mac fans still talk about how disgusted they were. lol

    The Cult of Mac. (I'm a paying member.)

    The Cult of Hillary. (I'm not a member.)
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  8. #88  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    No, Tuesday night the number of delegates will be met. The candidate will be Obama.
    I admire your true blue Obama dedication, as your prediction have the odds in your favor that you will be right..........but calling it Done BEFORE a candidate like a Clinton concedes is premature. Perception is reality and we are dealing with a Clinton's perception. She is still playing the popular vote for all it is worth (which officially means nothing) and is paving the road to see if anyone will travel on it to champion all the way to Denver for Mich to have 100% of their state delegates seated. I saw the other day that she would have to get something like 90% of all the remaining Super Delegates to pull a win...which is going to stretch Clintons perversion of simple addition to the max.....but I could see her arguing that these are pledged with no binding whatsoever so that no Superdelegate vote can be counted until it is cast in Denver.

    Heck...she could even play the understudy card....hoping for her infamous scenario to come true literally or politically!! I would not put it past Clinton to not concede, keep her head low with only back door politicing with the Superdelegates and hold out in her own little trench until Denver with Mich as her justification and rally call being that she will selfishly sacrifice herself for the good of the people of Mich.
  9. #89  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    One thing is for sure, we will know by Friday how far this plays out... I'm thinking she is out by Friday... maybe even sometime that weekend... but I'm thinking by Friday the delegates should have made their moves and she should be sitting on the beach with a cool drink on Sat... with bill running behind some 19-year-old.
    If I was a betting man, I would say all points above are the safer bet....except for Bill...he doesn't have to be on a beach, he could be back in the White House and still running behind some 19-year-old.
  10. #90  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    For one his church was not "racist." That is an insane comment... even more so if you consider the last pastor to preach there was white. lol.... I could think of some names to call them, but racist would be far from it... even their last pastor, wright, was not a racist... don't repeat Republican talking points (or gossip).... lol



    Mix of issues... obama is working on his tax plan... so far it is sinking in... He is only going to raise the taxes of those making over $250,000 (or right around there). No brainer. I've not heard were obama has said he will raise taxes on the middle class... although his entire plan is a bit sketchy.

    Mccain does seem to have a better plan for businesses (lowering taxes), but he has yet to get into specifics. In addition, mccain seems to be pulling a lot to and from taxes and that has some worried. Mccain seems to use the tax system as a personal bank.... Mccain seems to say, "Oh, we will take it from taxes."

    At some point you have nothing more to take and must start cutting domestic programs to fund your new plans. I fear that mccain will push bills and have to give many more concessions than obama....

    McCain's economy comment and greenspan comment will haunt him until Nov....
    They aren't Repub talking points...the hated and ignorance preached in that and other churches is racist. Sorry if you don't like the shoes that fit.


    You _really_ need to examine Obama's tax plan...sounds good when pandering for votes, but it's the real fairytale.

    But hey, Hillary is conceding, so he's the man now.
  11. #91  
    Quote Originally Posted by mgriffith View Post
    While I agree that Obama will probably get the Democrat nominiation, it seems to me that there are only two real milestones where one could declare this as a done deal.

    1. Hillary concedes. Many will disagree, but I see this as highly unlikely. It is contrary to her persona and track record.

    2. The convention delegates actually cast their votes and one candidate receives the requisite number to win the nomination. I say requisite number because with all the seating/not-seating MI and FL delegates, no one can really say who will be seated until that actually happens, too.

    Just as the presidential contest is not actually over until the Electoral College actually casts their votes and there *could* be faithless electors, the Democrat candidate is not selected until the delegates actually vote and make a selection. Yes, some are legally bound to vote for a specified candidate. But not all, and that may only hold for a first ballot. After that all bets are off.

    I can see a path (low proability, but real nonetheless) whereby the contest goes to the convention and neither candidate gets the nod on the first vote. Should that come to pass, things will get very interesting, very quickly. The arm-twisting and politicing to date would pale by comparison.

    Until that final vote actually happens, I do not put any tactic beyond any candidate (from any party). Particularly Hillary.

    Truth be told, if Hillary and Obama were more different in their positions, this might well have been over long ago. As it is, too many voters for my taste are making a choice based on inapproptiate criteria such as sex or race.

    Methinks we have been the recipients of a Chinese curse....

    Looks like it's #1, the unlikely choice - she is conceding today to tomorrow. She has cut a deal for VP is my speculation. Not in her genes to give up without getting something.
  12. #92  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikec View Post
    You _really_ need to examine Obama's tax plan...sounds good when pandering for votes, but it's the real fairytale.
    You will have to come better than that... I have read what he had available... what are your specific arguments?

    I also read John McCain.... and Clinton...
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  13. #93  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    You will have to come better than that... I have read what he had available... what are your specific arguments?

    I also read John McCain.... and Clinton...
    And what Obama has available is short of details...and lacks some sense.

    (I agree the tax system is way too complex, and needs overhauling...but let's talk fundamentals.)

    First, let's get something out of the way:

    - The top 5% of earners have 1/3 of the income, but pay for over 50% of the overall income taxes.

    - The top 1% of earners pay 1/3 of all income taxes

    - The average tax rate for the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers falls by 27 percent as compared to a 13 percent decline for taxpayers in the top 1 percent.

    See http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/income...hopaysmost.htm

    So the wealthiest are paying their fair share. And I am not one of them. I am middle class. But I do believe the "rich" are not getting some free ride that we like to imagine they get.

    Obama want to give $80B in tax cuts to people who aren't paying much of the taxes...holy schnikes, where are your going to make that up? Take business and capital gains? History shows that doesn't work to well.

    And the bullshyte that Bush's tax cuts caused the deficit issues...come on, most of the deficit increases are due to post 9/11 - Homeland Security, military, wars, etc. I'm not saying those all are wonderful - just that it's not "Bush's tax cuts". Criticize Bush for the war all you want, but his tax policy has been sound. (Unlike Greenspan, who directly contributed to the mortgage meltdown with his rate slashing.)

    Bottom line - the "poor" would make out better under Obama, but guess what - they are still poor. The middle and rich (read those that keep the govt support system running) will fare much worse.

    I do like the idea of cutting down tax prep time, but the way to do that is a flat tax...the problem is, it would take a 35% rate across the board to keep it running....and right now, most Americans individually pay much less than this.

    $50K for a family may be a lot in po-dunk Booneyville, but in an substantial metro area (where most people are), it's substance living. That's about what illegal immigrants make per year in CA.
  14. #94  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikec View Post
    And what Obama has available is short of details...and lacks some sense.
    After that last comment, it was easy to see where you were going... and took some air out of even wanting to reply....

    And all the details are not provided, which is why we need to wait before jumping to irrational conclusions. In addition, Obama's tax ideas are entwined with a larger economic plan. Focusing only on taxes will not provide you with the full picture of what he wants to accomplish.

    As I said before though, everything is not fully explained. Although, obama does have more information posted than McCain does last time I looked. Heck, many of McCains plans are still in "blog" form.
    Last edited by theog; 06/03/2008 at 03:44 PM.
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  15. #95  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    If I was a betting man, I would say all points above are the safer bet....except for Bill...he doesn't have to be on a beach, he could be back in the White House and still running behind some 19-year-old.
    She is making her move....

    Clinton: Open to being Obama's vice president
    Says she would consider it to help Democrats win the White House in '08

    Hillary Clinton has told congressional colleagues she would be open to becoming Barack Obama's vice presidential nominee, saying she would consider it if it would help Democrats win the White House.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24953561/

    Obama is said to be 40 some odd points away.... he has earned more than 15 super delegates today (from my quick count).

    Tonight should be the end....

    Or a new beginning....

    Depending how you look at it. ::ROFL::
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  16. #96  
    I said long ago Hillary was unelectable....glad to see it come true.
  17. #97  
    The tax program Obama has also includes the thing called Cap and Trade - it will kill this country and has tons of pork. Cutting taxes puts more money in the economy. Killing the Bush tax cuts and implementing Cap and Trade just does not make for good common sense. These are not Republican talking points. Dang shame McCain supports Cap and Trade.
  18. #98  
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    The tax program Obama has also includes the thing called Cap and Trade - it will kill this country and has tons of pork.
    Do you have a link... also, a link showing the "tons of pork."

    Thanks!
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  19. #99  
    You surprise me by not being informed. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-calls-pollution-cap-and-trade-program/story.aspx?guid={E704950B-F8D6-49EB-9C20-BCCECEB72374}.

    Read it and enjoy. The pork is self explanatory when you read and look further.


    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    Do you have a link... also, a link showing the "tons of pork."

    Thanks!
  20. #100  
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    You surprise me by not being informed. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-calls-pollution-cap-and-trade-program/story.aspx?guid={E704950B-F8D6-49EB-9C20-BCCECEB72374}.

    Read it and enjoy. The pork is self explanatory when you read and look further.
    No, I just like for people to quote their sources...

    And I did not see "tons of pork."

    And I read all the way to the end of the page, where it said, "Real-time last sale data provided by NASDAQ." No pork....
    Last edited by theog; 06/04/2008 at 03:30 AM.
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