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  1. #341  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    I heard Rove talking about this today. He made an interesting observation......He was basically complimenting Obama's political savvy'ness. He said that due to the Obama campaign doc leaked a little while ago, he knew he was going to lose Tuesday's primary a long time ago. Rove suspected that he planned to have this happen just after Obama's own suspected big loss so the headlines would be positive for him instead of focusing on Hillary's predicted big win, which with a 40 point lead over Obama became a reality.
    Obama now has a clear super delegate lead.... 288 to clinton's 270.
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  2. #342  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    Obama now has a clear super delegate lead.... 288 to clinton's 270.
    He was not talking about delegate leads, he was talking about planning a media distraction from a known upcoming major primary loss. And losing a primary by 40% should have been all over the media, until Obama took control of that with John Edward's announcement the day after the anticipated big loss that became a bigger reality than I think even he originally realized.
  3. #343  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    He was not talking about delegate leads, he was talking about planning a media distraction from a known upcoming major primary loss.

    the day after the anticipated big loss that became a bigger reality than I think even he originally realized.
    I think it was planned all along.... Obama spent one day in W VA... he knew he was going to lose by a fairly large amount.

    I don't think he wanted to spend any money in the state for a delegate count that had little to no meaning. At this point 'bama can't be stopped.
    Last edited by theog; 05/16/2008 at 04:25 PM.
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  4. #344  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    Obama now has a clear super delegate lead.... 288 to clinton's 270.
    But that does not matter until Hillary's math reaches the same conclusion.....or probably more to the point it will not matter as long as Hillary's math can still show she has potential.
  5.    #345  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    I think it was planned all along.... Obama spent one day in W VA... he knew he was going to lose by a fairly large amount.

    I don't think he wanted to spend any money in the state for a delegate count that had little to no meaning. At this point 'bama can't be stopped.
    not spending time or effort in W Va. was a mistake --

    he had the chance of giving those rural folk a chance to learn more about him, to have some of their prejudices and misconceptions addressed -- now when he has time and money to talk to them -- instead of November when there will be too little of either.

    "Unsophisticated" voters are not only found in W Va. Underestimating the potential of issues like gun control, gay marriage, race, and the flag has long been the doom of democrats.

    W Va. is likely lost to Obama should he be the nominee

    How many democrats have won the Presidency without W. Va. ??
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  6. #346  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    not spending time or effort in W Va. was a mistake --

    he had the chance of giving those rural folk a chance to learn more about him, to have some of their prejudices and misconceptions addressed -- now when he has time and money to talk to them -- instead of November when there will be too little of either.

    "Unsophisticated" voters are not only found in W Va. Underestimating the potential of issues like gun control, gay marriage, race, and the flag has long been the doom of democrats.

    W Va. is likely lost to Obama should he be the nominee

    I would not put it past obama go "go back" and attempt to win the hearts and minds of those in W Va. Could be he has already decided it is lost anyway. Dunno. Mistake? I'm not sure.... we have not been "here" before as I've said before. We have no (honest) historical references to understand how obama will play out in Nov.

    Everyone keeps saying this election year is like no other. LOL...

    How many democrats have won the Presidency without W. Va. ??
    I don't know.

    I have a question. How many have lost even though they won W. VA?

    Dukakis won w va in 1988, but still lost. Carter won W. VA, and GA but still lost in 1980.

    Heck, in 2004, w va would not have mattered. I'm not sure they have enough electoral votes to matter.

    Although, my argument is not looking at your argument directly... I'm trying to "win" something (what I will win, I don't know).

    I think you are talking about the connection and how W VA represents a large segment of our population. An important "group" of people who span several states.

    No doubt obama has a LOT of work to do... which makes me even more curious on how he goes about it. Already he has started speaking in areas that are "traditionally" republican.

    While I think it is important for him to do that, I think it would also be a mistake to assume democratic strongholds will play in his favor automatically. Can't ignore Dem strongholds.
    Last edited by theog; 05/16/2008 at 08:38 PM.
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  7. #347  
    Obama did mess up ignoring the state. Had he put some effort in to it and lost, the loss would not have been so bad. His not being there told the people he did not care and that is a mistake.
  8.    #348  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    I would not put it past obama go "go back" and attempt to win the hearts and minds of those in W Va. Could be he has already decided it is lost anyway. Dunno. Mistake? I'm not sure...


    I think you are talking about the connection and how W VA represents a large segment of our population. An important "group" of people who span several states...

    ...Already he has started speaking in areas that are "traditionally" republican.

    While I think it is important for him to do that, I think it would also be a mistake to assume democratic strongholds will play in his favor automatically. Can't ignore Dem strongholds.
    Yes -- I'm seeing W Va. as a proxy for much of the flyover world that exists between the LA and NY. Places where religion, guns, sports teams, race, the flag, and gays getting married means more on election day than jobs, the constitution, the war, or the economy.

    Folks that the repugs are expert at messaging in precisely the Wright way.

    They are experts at the use of double entendre phrases and words, subtle allusions that tickle exactly the Wright fearful reflex amongst the largest part of the population of this country.

    I have been here before -- I have heard the confident assertions that this time its different -- that those old tired demagogic lies won't work this time, that people have become smarter now -- more sophisticated -- that they've finally learned that the GOP condescends and manipulates them come every election

    Maybe.

    Maybe this time, maybe after 8 years of catastrophic ineptitude, opportunism, and lies the american people have begun to know who to trust who to believe in.

    I've been here before though. I've already seen this movie , and I've never liked the ending.

    Obama's impassioned supporters genuflect on how well he's done in the democratic primaries. They're dazzled by the wide cross cultural levels of support he's garnered in the nomination race.

    They believe he's weathered a tough brutal campaign, that he's more than ready for November.

    In this they remind me of the citizens of a modest Japanese city on August 5, 1945 -- a beautiful warm sunny day. The people of Hiroshima were congratulating themselves for having withstood the destruction that had befallen the rest of Japan.

    The following day they were consumed in a flash.
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/17/2008 at 07:13 AM.
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  9.    #349  
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    Obama did mess up ignoring the state. Had he put some effort in to it and lost, the loss would not have been so bad. His not being there told the people he did not care and that is a mistake.
    yes we are in agreement on that.

    His advisers presumably reasoned that in the drive to secure the nomination, it made no sense to inflate the importance of a state the he was destined to lose by going full out and competing.

    They at least learned something from Clinton's S Carolina debacle.

    Nevertheless, the primary benefit of this extended primary is the chance to expose more of the country to this neophyte whose previous job experience comes primarily from the Illinois State Senate.

    By forgoing that exposure, Obama has effectively abandoned his desire to reach out to those americans
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/17/2008 at 07:15 AM.
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  10. #350  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    By forgoing that exposure, Obama has effectively abondoned his desire to reach out to those americans
    LOL... abandoned? It is only May.

    Did you see his schedule for the time he did not spend in W VA? He was attempting to shore up unfinished business in other important key states.

    If they are to seat he delegates in FL and MI, of course he has to speak to those people....

    The bigger picture is that obama skipped one state... hillary skipped tons of them. That is why she lost like 11 in a row. I doubt if one state will doom obama in Nov. Not when he has the time to mend those fences once he gets hillary out he way and make the people of FL and MI happy.

    And W VA may be one of those states that he knows he could never win in a million years... you never know.

    But like I mentioned before, he has a lot of work to do. I'm sure he will calculate Nov out to understand exactly what he needs to win.
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  11. #351  
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    Obama did mess up ignoring the state. Had he put some effort in to it and lost, the loss would not have been so bad. His not being there told the people he did not care and that is a mistake.
    There were several other messages going out... too bad your hate for obama will not allow you to understand them.
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  12.    #352  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    LOL... abandoned? It is only May.

    Did you see his schedule for the time he did not spend in W VA? He was attempting to shore up unfinished business in other important key states.

    If they are to seat he delegates in FL and MI, of course he has to speak to those people....

    The bigger picture is that obama skipped one state... hillary skipped tons of them. That is why she lost like 11 in a row. I doubt if one state will doom obama in Nov. Not when he has the time to mend those fences once he gets hillary out he way and make the people of FL and MI happy.

    And W VA may be one of those states that he knows he could never win in a million years... you never know.

    But like I mentioned before, he has a lot of work to do. I'm sure he will calculate Nov out to understand exactly what he needs to win.

    the advantage of an election is that it concentates voter's attention on issues and candidates in a way that is measurably different than during normal times.

    THe excitement generated by the media, by the candidates crossing a state making speeches, the rallies, the crowds, the yard signs -- all that creates an environment where people pay attention in a heightened way.

    He lost the leverage gained by that attention by not partaking in W Va. (especially as all that attention was concentrated then on a single state).
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/17/2008 at 12:35 PM.
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  13. #353  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    the advantage of an election is that it concentates voter's attention on issues and candidates in a way that is measurably different than during normal times.

    THe excitement generated by the media, by the candidates crossing a state making speeches, the rallies, the crowds, the yard signs -- all that creates an environment where people pay attention in a heightened way.

    He lost the leverage gained by that attention by not partaking in W Va. (especially as all that attention was concentrated then on a single state).

    I say he had bigger fish to fry in FL and MI since the rules committee meet later this month. But I guess he could have went after W VA... I guess he could have spent tons of money to close the gap, only to lose in the end.

    I've started repeating myself, so I guess we don't agree.

    No biggie.

    I understand your argument; it makes sense. Heck, maybe he should have participated in w va to send his message to those good folks.

    If he ever writes a book, it will be interesting to know for sure why he skipped w va but fought in so many other states. Even in states that hillary skipped.

    Would be interesting to know the exact number of states obama skipped vs. states hillary skipped. Or even how many states mccain has not set foot. He has the stage to himself....
    Last edited by theog; 05/17/2008 at 01:17 PM.
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  14.    #354  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    I say he had bigger fish to fry in FL and MI since the rules committee meet later this month. But I guess he could have went after W VA... I guess he could have spent tons of money to close the gap, only to lose in the end...
    if a democratic nominee is worried about Michigan in 2008, things are more dodgy than even I believed ...
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  15. #355  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    if a democratic nominee is worried about Michigan in 2008, things are more dodgy than even I believed ...
    Say what?

    You have to worry about a block of voters who might not be happy after their voice was not heard. Ignore it and figure "everything is ok" and see how far that gets you.

    Are you saying MI should be a "give me" state considering everything that has happened in the past couple of months?
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  16. #356  
    Theog - I do not hate Obama - no where in anything I have written states that. Again, his politics, who he keeps company with, who he uses as advisers, et cetera. You really need to find something to get on with, as this is just showing how little respect you have for others, regardless of their political affiliation. I really would like to drop this.

    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    There were several other messages going out... too bad your hate for obama will not allow you to understand them.
  17.    #357  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    ...Are you saying MI should be a "give me" ...?
    given how many jobs they've lost, the state of their economy, the historic position of labor unions in Michigan -- if there was any place that is a "give me", it must be there.

    If its not, then the presumptive democratic nominee is in deep shiite.

    W Va. is not a "give me". A mostly rural, traditonal, and religious place, where coal dust is in nearly everyones's blood or lungs. Its populated largely by poor working class whites -- people who care far more passionately about the second amendment, than about the first.

    But its a place where FDR and the Democratic party were once nearly as sacred as jesus. Where labor and unions are sacrosanct.

    These are voters who've been alienated by the very "bitter" values issues that Obama talked about in his San Fran chit chat.

    But they are the same people who were once unforgivably suspicious of a rich Ivy League Catholic in 1960 -- and yet were able to be won over eventually by JFK's dynamism, charisma, and candor.

    They think of Obama as a closet moslem, as an elitist.

    Its real hard to undo an impression once its begun to harden. In may already be too late in W Va.
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/18/2008 at 02:44 AM.
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  18. #358  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    They think of Obama as a closet moslem, as an elitist.

    Its real hard to undo an impression once its begun to harden. In may already be too late in W Va.
    With that said, it may have already been too late several weeks ago.

    That was another of my points. lol

    Far as being a "closet Muslim," wait until they get a whiff of Bob Barr...

    The town I come from is more than likely like w va... the people. I speak to those same people... it can be an uphill battle to separate fact from fiction. Not that it is needed... most people already know they are voting dem or rep... they vote what their parents voted and their kids will vote what they vote. lol.

    Sometimes I joke that Satan could run as a dem or rep and get as many votes as anyone else.
    Last edited by theog; 05/18/2008 at 03:30 AM.
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  19. #359  
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    Theog - I do not hate Obama - no where in anything I have written states that. Again, his politics, who he keeps company with, who he uses as advisers, et cetera. You really need to find something to get on with, as this is just showing how little respect you have for others, regardless of their political affiliation. I really would like to drop this.
    Quote Originally Posted by bclinger View Post
    It is sort of like Barack Hussein Obama saying he will meet with certain leaders ... President Bush gives a speech and talks about parlaying with terrorists ... and Barack Hussein Obama and others like Yellin' Dean saying it is an attack against Barack Hussein Obama - an attack! Gosh, didn't Barack Hussein Obama say that?

    Talk about being overly sensitive and never happy and always complaining. They just like to talk and say what people want to hear and then deny it when caught.
    Dude...you are so not invited to any of my parties.
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  20. #360  
    <EDIT> Just to make since of the flow.....This post was in respons to electronique's original post that he deleted after I replied and reposted it after my reply<EDIT>

    But that is not the battle right now. The current main battle right now is who will be battling McCain. It would be the same if the Rep still had two candidates and no nominee. It is still in the primaries. The top of the Dem ticket is still in question. So wouldn't talking about the pros and cons of each Dem candidate be a valuable and valid topic of conversation? Then when we know who is going against McCain, the topic will naturally turn to the battle between them.

    This thread (which was started by a far left member of our community) is not about how Rep are going to deal with McCain, but how the Dems are dealing with Hillary (or maybe more true to the point how Hillary is dealing with the Dems).
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 05/18/2008 at 06:30 PM.

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