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  1. #281  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    Hobbes -- you're punting !!

    be bold -- who will be the nominee is Obama loses Indiana AND NC ???
    Nope, I said it point blank. No one is going to have enough state delegates. Not enough state delegates means no declared top of the ticket nominee. This then forces a Super Delegate nominated nominee.
  2.    #282  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    Nope, I said it point blank. No one is going to have enough state delegates. Not enough state delegates means no declared top of the ticket nominee. This then forces a Super Delegate nominated nominee.
    nope -- a punt has officially been declared.

    WHO will be the nominee -- who are the super duper delegates going to choose ???
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  3. #283  
    Oh....asked who will it be after the state primaries. That answer is none.

    there is no answer for the Super Delegate vote. Of course the amount of state delegates and states won will have some play, but all numbers along this line are so close or can be so easily screwed to prove any any point you want it to that they will prove all but useless as a deciding factor with Super Delegates. This will be totally dependent on behind close doors politics, hard ball pressuring, bribing with favors, calling in any old items they have hanging over any Super Delegates heads, etc...

    So whoever has the most political clout with the most individuals among the Super Delegates will win.

    Calling someone on the Super Delegate vote at this point is no more accurate or insighful than blindly poking your finger at a list of horses to see who to place your big bet on this weekend.

    If you want a name...I will say Obama...until we see the trend of his lead continuing to decline. So on Wednesday I might say Clinton. But then if 30% of those who are pledged to Clinton declare they will jump ship to Obama, I will say Obama. But then if 60% of the undecided Super Delegates pledge to Clinton, I might say Clinton again. I hope that answers your question.
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 05/02/2008 at 04:46 PM.
  4. #284  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    nope -- a punt has officially been declared.

    WHO will be the nominee -- who are the super duper delegates going to choose ???
    At the risk of a definite answer that says absolutely nothing:

    The better politician. Whether this is also the better candidate is another issue altogether.

    I do not envy the superdelegates (love the Clinton supporters pushing to call them "unpledged delegates"), but neither do I have any sympathy for them. This is a situation wholly made by the democrats for the democrats.

    No matter what, they will be villified by a large portion of their membership.

    Pick Clinton and, rightly or wrongly, they stand to be labeled:
    - Racist
    - Nomination thief
    - Overruling the will of the majority of Democrat voters

    Pick Obama and, rightly or wrongly, they stand to be labeled:
    - Sexist
    - Picking a candidate who failed to win the "big states"
    - Overruling the will of the majority of Democrat voters

    We need not even broach the potential negatives of each candidate. Do that, and things get ugly very quickly.

    On what do they place the greater emphasis?
    - Number of states won
    - Popular vote
    - "Electability"
    - Win margin(s)
    - Platform/Policy
    - Personality
    - Chances of later patronage payback
    - Ability to avoid electorate fallout for their choice
    - Other

    It really does not matter how logical they attempt to be, essentially lose on some major point.

    In the end they will pick the person who is the most persuasive based on whatever criteria each delegate deems the most important.

    I really cannot get a read on where this will go. There are simply too many factors in play.
  5. #285  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    Hobbes -- you're punting !!

    be bold -- who will be the nominee is Obama loses Indiana AND NC ???
    Indiana and NC?

    Wow.... that would give hillary some momentum going into the other races...

    If he lost both IN and NC he would lose several other states going into june.

    Considering he will still have the most delegates I'd say he still wins. If she blows him out all over the place, I think she makes a good argument.

    But he has the cash and will have the most delegates... I think most of the super delegates will wait to see which way other super delegates start to go before making a firm decision. Then I think there will be a "big move" in june and we will know.

    Even though I did not admit it at the time, Hobbesisreal comment caused me research my idea on "popular vote." I go with him now that it means nothing... The way the dems have it setup, popular vote means absolutely zero... except to those who don't know how the dems have this setup... lol

    Anyway, either way, I think hillary drops out in june unless she BLOWS OBAMA OUT from now until June. That is not going to happen, I don't think.

    I don't see hillary getting embarrassed by losing due to super delegate votes....
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  6.    #286  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post


    be bold -- who will be the nominee if Obama loses Indiana AND NC ???
    Indiana and NC?

    Wow.... that would give hillary some momentum going into the other races...

    If he lost both IN and NC he would lose several other states going into june.

    Considering he will still have the most delegates I'd say he still wins. If she blows him out all over the place, I think she makes a good argument.

    But he has the cash and will have the most delegates... I think most of the super delegates will wait to see which way other super delegates start to go before making a firm decision. Then I think there will be a "big move" in june and we will know ...

    Anyway, either way, I think hillary drops out in june unless she BLOWS OBAMA OUT from now until June. That is not going to happen...
    a brave man -- a man of action -- a veteran of war, of combat --

    No need to implore Theog to take point. Courageously he puts his neck on the line --

    Theog proudly declares:

    Obama !!

    (even if Hillary is triumphant in NC ...)
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/02/2008 at 08:15 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  7.    #287  
    Quote Originally Posted by mgriffith View Post
    At the risk of a definite answer that says absolutely nothing:

    The better politician. Whether this is also the better candidate is another issue altogether.

    I do not envy the superdelegates (love the Clinton supporters pushing to call them "unpledged delegates"), but neither do I have any sympathy for them. This is a situation wholly made by the democrats for the democrats.

    No matter what, they will be villified by a large portion of their membership.

    Pick Clinton and, rightly or wrongly, they stand to be labeled:
    - Racist
    - Nomination thief
    - Overruling the will of the majority of Democrat voters

    Pick Obama and, rightly or wrongly, they stand to be labeled:
    - Sexist
    - Picking a candidate who failed to win the "big states"
    - Overruling the will of the majority of Democrat voters

    We need not even broach the potential negatives of each candidate. Do that, and things get ugly very quickly.

    On what do they place the greater emphasis?
    - Number of states won
    - Popular vote
    - "Electability"
    - Win margin(s)
    - Platform/Policy
    - Personality
    - Chances of later patronage payback
    - Ability to avoid electorate fallout for their choice
    - Other

    It really does not matter how logical they attempt to be, essentially lose on some major point.

    In the end they will pick the person who is the most persuasive based on whatever criteria each delegate deems the most important.

    I really cannot get a read on where this will go. There are simply too many factors in play.
    mgriffith -- that's a well written, well argued post.

    A post that showed a real understanding of the subtleties of the issues involved.

    Personally I was impressed by it.

    But somebody from this forum earlier today threw a red flag and challenged it.

    For the last several hours I have been in a brutal session with the officials, defending your post -- explaining how it meets the spirit if not the letter of the original question.

    Wait -- wait -- it looks like, yes I think they have finally ended their review and are ready to make an announcement as to their decision...

    ewwww -- tough call -- sorry mgriffith -- your post has been ruled a PUNT!!

    The officials have ruled your post as down by not answering the question -- as a punt -- and you must therefore entirely repost again.

    I apologize mgriffith -- I tried, I really did ...
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/03/2008 at 12:51 AM. Reason: bad typos ...
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  8.    #288  
    for the record -- to answer my own question:

    If Hillary should win both Indiana AND NC, I believe that she'll be the nominee


    She will then ask Obama to take the VP spot, and he might well accept -- (she will really want him to take it, to reunite the party) -- though she'd run stronger with Webb
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/05/2008 at 12:07 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  9. #289  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    for the record -- to answer my own question:

    If Hillary should win both Indiana AND NC, I believe that she'll be the nominee


    She will then ask Obama, and he might well accept -- the VP spot (she will really want him to take it, to reunite the party) -- though she'd run stronger with Webb
    Anything is possible... heck, who EVER would have thought the Hawks would push a game 7 with the Celtics?

    I still think that is a disaster ticket... I don't see how you can put two *inexperienced candidates together and get a "dream ticket."

    Funny how Edwards wants to be a leader, but he can't make up his mind on who he wants to support. Although, his wife has alluded "they" are leaning towards Hillary.

    *candidates with the perception of being inexperienced.
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  10.    #290  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    ...I still think that is a disaster ticket... I don't see how you can put two *inexperienced candidates together and get a "dream ticket."
    I agree Theog -- and their words critical of each other will be repeated endlessly.

    But MANY democrats will be angry which ever one is the nominee -- having a united ticket may be the only way to heal up the bleeding wounds.

    But if I'm Obama I'd probably rather preserve my independence and be a strong independent voice and sometimes critic from the Senate -- while preparing to run again.

    The VP is not always a good spot for becoming President. (though being first lady has potential )



    Funny how Edwards wants to be a leader, but he can't make up his mind on who he wants to support. Although, his wife has alluded "they" are leaning towards Hillary.
    Though no else has mentioned this aside from me, Edwards may well have personal reasons for not supporting Obama.

    Edwards may not like Hillary all that much, but he quite possibly holds a grudge against Obama.

    Remember what I wrote a week before the Iowa caucus:


    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE 12/27/07 View Post

    ...Edwards and Obama have begun to scratch and bleed each other into 2nd and 3rd.

    Stories pushed by Obama about Edward's winking cooperation with a union's semi unethical advertising on Edward's behalf, has perhaps sullied him with a stain of hypocrisy after how loudly he's attacked others for their taking PAK money.

    Obama, probably fearing both the peculiar dynamics of Iowa's caucus rules (where an attendees 2nd choice is almost as important as their first) -- and the strength of Edwards personal connections among Iowans (that were sowed years ago), maybe felt compelled to preempt Edwards stealth momentum...

    Obama probably reasoned that anyone who had a leaning toward him or Hillary would have already been committed that way.

    Though he’s had fewer resources, Edwards has in Iowa fertile soil for his positive campaign message (especially the one remembered from ‘2004).

    Hillary is not especially concerned about Edwards winning Iowa since he’s unlikely to win NH (and he doesn’t have the resources to carry it very far after S. Carolina.) But an Edward’s win would deprive Obama of the momentum Obama needs to win NH and S. Carolina.

    So Obama -- the audacity of hope, the above the mud candidate -- attacks Edwards...
    Last edited by BARYE; 05/03/2008 at 07:12 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  11. #291  
    Folks, again, this is a struggle between the DLC part of the Democratic party and those that focus on it's Labor and social issues roots.

    Currently, the math is COMPLETELY in Obama's favor. There is NO WAY for Hllary to catch up in pledged delegates, popular vote, or number of states. The Hillary people are simply staying in the race hoping for some gigantic gaffe or transvestite prostitute. The super delegates KNOW they cannot go against the popular vote or it will tear the Party apart. They are being herded like feral chihuahuas towards the Obama side by Howard Dean to get the Democratic Party ready for it's LANDSLIDE November election!

    THEN we can blame the Dems if they don't get the job done, but we must neuter the DLC.
  12. #292  
    Obama S L A U G H T E R S Hillary Clinton in Guam.

    ..

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24441932/

    Not looking good for her now... obama is turning the tide!
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  13. #293  
    Quote Originally Posted by theog View Post
    Obama S L A U G H T E R S Hillary Clinton in Guam.
    The way the candidates have tried to play the numbers I could see that as a sound bite in the ongoing war of Super Delegate pledges!

    The reality......
    Obama clinches island victory by 7 votes.....Results of the count completed Sunday morning Guam time show Obama with 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton's slate. That means they'll split the pledged delegate votes.
  14.    #294  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    The way the candidates have tried to play the numbers I could see that as a sound bite in the ongoing war of Super Delegate pledges!

    The reality......Obama clinches island victory by 7 votes.....Results of the count completed Sunday morning Guam time show Obama with 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton's slate. That means they'll split the pledged delegate votes.
    Hobbes -- this is the new math -- its what I learnt in no child left behind. Using that arithmatic a 7 vote margin is HUGE
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  15. #295  
    Hey, I started off specifically stating I was giving a non-answer! I can see where a punt is called, but no penalty is due!

    Given the semi-official admission from the Clinton camp today that the "nuclear option" is in play, and given the Clinton machine's history of "win at all costs", I see Hillary taking a scorched earth approach to win the nomination.

    Unless IN and NC both are total blow-outs for Obama (well in excess of 10 points), I predict Hillary will end up with the Democrat nomination. Even if this poisons the ground for Democrats for the next several decades (if not destroys the party outright).

    I will even go further and predict that, if Hillary succeeds in this play, the Black? African-American? (what damned option is the "correct" nomenclature now?) will be split with at least half moving to the Republican party.

    Hell, if I am going to be wrong, I might as well go all out. If I am right, I can be the "oracle" for years to come.

    Malcom
  16. #296  
    Quote Originally Posted by mgriffith View Post
    I will even go further and predict that, if Hillary succeeds in this play, the Black? African-American? (what damned option is the "correct" nomenclature now?) will be split with at least half moving to the Republican party.
    Malcom
    Itís pretty sad and obvious by your exasperated tone that neither is your preferred term. But to answer your insincere question, either will do.
    Iago

    "Good name in man and woman, dear my lord, Is the immediate jewel of their souls: Who steals my purse steals trash . . . But he that filches from me my good name Robs me of that which not enriches him
    And makes me poor indeed."


    Criminal: A person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation.
    - Howard Scott
  17. #297  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    The way the candidates have tried to play the numbers I could see that as a sound bite in the ongoing war of Super Delegate pledges!

    The reality......

    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE
    Hobbes -- this is the new math -- its what I learnt in no child left behind. Using that arithmatic a 7 vote margin is HUGE

    Do I have to put a in such an obvious post?

    My fault... I'll do that next time....

    My post was so preposterous, I figured no one would take it seriously.

    With hillary on the ropes, I guess this is war and no longer a laughing matter! (That was a joke, too.)
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  18. #298  
    theog...I got what you were doing....I wasn't posting against you....I was posting agreeing with you how I could see the candidate's campaigns using that headline against the reality when compared against some of the numbers I have seen them throw out over the last few weeks.
  19. #299  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    theog...I got what you were doing....I wasn't posting against you....I was posting agreeing with you how I could see the candidate's campaigns using that headline against the reality when compared against some of the numbers I have seen them throw out over the last few weeks.
    Yea, I could as well... lot of stretching going on.

    In the news today both agreed that this goes until June... so it will be interesting to see how this winds down.

    I'm thinking hillary backs off the attacks and obama keeps doing what he is doing.... I still thinking hillary drops out in june....
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  20. #300  
    Obama is on a roll!

    This will go down in history as the single event that change everything for hillary.

    Tom Hanks backs Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Hanks
    an Obama presidency could bring about a "seismic shift," and "live up to the great promise once shaped by our founding fathers."
    http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS...ef=mpstoryview
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