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  1.    #1  
    Global markets were absolutely decimated on monday 1/22/08. US markets were closed, but still stand on the verge of what could be a monumental freefall on tuesday. Dow futures plummeted 514 points on monday, leaving the dow index at or around the 11,585 mark. This has been touted as the steepest market rout since sept 11, 2001, and would officially thrust the US stock markets into a bear market.

    Very unsettling. The downward momentum within periods of severe corrections such as these reportedly take 2 years to recover from.

    The downturn is a reflection that world markets view an economic stimulus package by the US to be too little too late for an effective bandaid to the imminent recession.

    Hold onto your hats, folks, and grab a hold of the harness - we are in for a gut wrenching financial plunge.....

    So here's the conundrum. Move money from equities into safe harbor money markets? Stay put and ride the monster coaster down into the dark, dank basement? Contribute incrementally on the way down - dollar costing the market and buying during the bargain season?

    What is your risk tolerance?
  2. #2  
    Under the mattress in my rented house (yeah, think I'll hold off from buying for just a *titsch*) seems like the best bet for me. :scared:
  3.    #3  
    Under the mattress within a rented house, yes that is certainly another way to go in this cauldron of chaos.

    I appreciate your humor, but seriously, What do ya think sept? Would you be selling or moving your current shares out or staying put?

    I understand that you won't buy any further at the current time but are you leaving what you do have already invested alone?
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by logmein View Post
    Under the mattress within a rented house, yes that is certainly another way to go in this cauldron of chaos.

    I appreciate your humor, but seriously, What do ya think sept? Would you be selling or moving your current shares out or staying put?

    I understand that you won't buy any further at the current time but are you leaving what you do have already invested alone?
    Things are bad. I have much more at risk than I wish I had.

    I had owned "puts" on the Asian markets.

    Stupidly I sold them about two weeks ago (intending to buy them back lower). They did go lower for a few days (not as low as I had hoped though), and now they have jumped hugely -- enough to have offset other of my losses had I not been so "clever".

    BTW, I seem to remember another thread on stocks from a few months ago ...

    (I have some more to say about the background of this crash in the mortgage thread...)
    Last edited by BARYE; 01/22/2008 at 04:01 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  5.    #5  
    I too have a bit more at risk than I am comfortable with at this point.

    In december of this past year, I moved two thirds of our funds out of equity funds and into money market funds as it appeared that the subprime crisis would extend well into 2008. The other third is still invested, which is definitely contributing to a certain degree of agada these days.

    My father is considering gold and silver as an alternative investment for the time being. While also volatile, they may be more rewarding than equities at this point.

    Personally I think this bear market market could go for 1-2 yrs.
  6. #6  
    I'm investing heavily in precious metals. Copper, lead and brass
    (Oh, go heavy on MREs and shortwave radios too!)
  7.    #7  
    Proud to have you here, 1911forever. If it were up to all of us, you'd have all the precious metals you required, particularly the MRE'S.

    Personally, I'd also like to see us heavily invested in T-100's. lol.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by 1911sforever View Post
    (Oh, go heavy on MREs and shortwave radios too!)
    hehehehe



    If it's time for shortwaves and MREs you don't want to forget the AK.
  9.    #9  
    Dear lord, folks. Dow futures are now down 630 points... nasdaq down 105, s&p down 75.

    Sweet baby james, this will be a frickin bloodbath tomorrow.

    Recession worries? It just might be a bit more than a recession with any more of these types of freefalls.....
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by logmein View Post
    Dear lord, folks. Dow futures are now down 630 points... nasdaq down 105, s&p down 75.

    Sweet baby james, this will be a frickin bloodbath tomorrow.

    Recession worries? It just might be a bit more than a recession with any more of these types of freefalls.....
    On Friday Cramer said (after the announcement of junior's recession "fix") that if things went bad you could see a 1000-2000 points down. He wasn't specifically talking about Tuesday morning, but rather what would happen if what I've talked about in the mortgage thread went unaddressed.

    Its not an exaggeration to say the global financial system is on the verge of a complete meltdown, and that junior is utterly ilprepared on any level to confront and understand it.

    He cannot admit his role in creating it, and trapped within the cage of his ideology, he lacks the imagination to creatively resolve it.

    Budget deficits, tax cuts, and interest rate reductions are tools that are used during recessions. Junior's genious was to use all of them during his presidency to borrow from the future for the appearance of prosperity.

    It looks like the future has now arrived at our door with a sheriff in tow...
    Last edited by BARYE; 01/22/2008 at 03:31 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  11.    #11  
    I see your resolve in wanting to pin this entire crisis onto Bush, here, barye. I'm not so sure all of this is his fault, as you insist.

    Economic cycles often take place regardless of the policies of presidents in office. As we remember, the stock market crash of 2000 took place around clinton's term too.

    The subprime bubble has largely been caused by scandalous lenders and disingenious bankers, not by Bush. You mention his taxcuts as being at fault here, but would the higher taxes and policies of a democratic administration have saved us from this debacle? Honestly, I think not.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by logmein View Post
    I see your resolve in wanting to pin this entire crisis onto Bush, here, barye. I'm not so sure all of this is his fault, as you insist.

    Economic cycles often take place regardless of the policies of presidents in office. As we remember, the stock market crash of 2000 took place around clinton's term too.

    The subprime bubble has largely been caused by scandalous lenders and disingenious bankers, not by Bush. You mention his taxcuts as being at fault here, but would the higher taxes and policies of a democratic administration have saved us from this debacle? Honestly, I think not.

    There were several SEVERE financial crisises during the Clinton years -- the Russian bond meltdown, the MASSIVE asian currency devaluations, as well as the internet bubble bursting. The american economy was steered through them by Clinton, Rubin, and Greenspan without a hickup.

    The budget was balanced, employment zoomed, crime vanished, and new industries were created -- all while taxes on the well off were incrementally raised.

    If things get half as bad as I fear, junior's presidencial legacy will be legendary.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  13. #13  
    *Looks at indices and pulls portolfio tracker out of pocket.*

    *Doesn't like the look of the portfolio tracker and puts it back in the pocket*

    *Buys some more*

    *Waits out short-term volatility for long-term rewards*
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  14. #14  
    *keeps paying down credit card in anticipation of being able to one day be personally stressed about this 'portfolio' thing people keep talking about*

  15. #15  
    Post-game analysis?
  16.    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by skfny View Post
    *Looks at indices and pulls portolfio tracker out of pocket.*

    *Doesn't like the look of the portfolio tracker and puts it back in the pocket*

    *Buys some more*

    *Waits out short-term volatility for long-term rewards*

    Buying some more at low levels IS a good move, I grant you. You would be dollar costing and buying on the dips. Long term, this certainly is the way to go.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by shopharim View Post
    Post-game analysis?

    1. a belated and panic induced 3/4% interest rate cut made by junior's Fed, fearful of the global meltdown that all markets were on the verge of

    and

    2. efforts made by the NY State insurance regulator to address the unpublicized crisis that I wrote about in the mortgage thread several day ago. (Today's NY Times has a major article on that subject today.)

    -- resulted in the stock market having at least a partial recovery (one that is yet still far from indefinite)


    FWIW -- (and this is wierdly true), I dreamt Monday night that they had announced a full one point rate cut -- and that the markets then had jumped much more than they actually did)


    Next on the Worry List: Shaky Insurers of Bonds

    By VIKAS BAJAJ and JENNY ANDERSON
    NY TImes

    Even as stocks ended five days of losses with a surprising recovery on Wednesday, officials began moving to defuse another potential time bomb in the markets: the weakened condition of two large insurance companies that have guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds.

    Regulators fear a possible chain of events in which the troubled bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac, might be unable to keep their promise to pay investors if borrowers default on their debt.

    That could leave the buyers of the bonds — including many banks and pension funds — on the hook for untold billions of dollars in losses, shaking confidence in the financial system.

    To avoid a possible crisis, insurance regulators met with representatives of about a dozen banks on Wednesday to discuss ways to shore up the insurers by injecting fresh capital...

    The notion that the failure of even one big bond insurer might touch off a chain reaction of losses across the financial world has unnerved Wall Street and Washington. It was a factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision on Tuesday to calm investors by reducing interest rates by three-quarters of a point, to 3.5 percent.

    News of Wednesday’s meeting helped rally stocks, which had been down as much as 3 percent but ended up about 2 percent. Shares of MBIA jumped by nearly a third and Ambac jumped 72 percent...

    Traditionally, bond insurance has been a low-risk business. State and municipal bonds rarely defaulted, so the insurers paid out few claims for such debt. But in recent years the bond insurers increasingly have guaranteed debt related to subprime mortgages, a business that they thought was safe but has turned out to be risky.

    Now, as many subprime borrowers are defaulting, insurers could be obligated to cover some of the losses on securities backed by these loans...

    ...federal officials ...[did not] attend the meeting...
    Last edited by BARYE; 01/24/2008 at 01:43 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  18. TheOneThing
    TheOneThing's Avatar
    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    On Friday Cramer said (after the announcement of junior's recession "fix") that if things went bad you could see a 1000-2000 points down. He wasn't specifically talking about Tuesday morning, but rather what would happen if what I've talked about in the mortgage thread went unaddressed.

    Its not an exaggeration to say the global financial system is on the verge of a complete meltdown, and that junior is utterly ilprepared on any level to confront and understand it.

    He cannot admit his role in creating it, and trapped within the cage of his ideology, he lacks the imagination to creatively resolve it.

    Budget deficits, tax cuts, and interest rate reductions are tools that are used during recessions. Junior's genious was to use all of them during his presidency to borrow from the future for the appearance of prosperity.

    It looks like the future has now arrived at our door with a sheriff in tow...
    Political leaders have as much to do with the global economy as my mailman has to do with my email account.
  19.    #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by TheOneThing View Post
    Political leaders have as much to do with the global economy as my mailman has to do with my email account.
    EXACTLY. Thank you. It is unfortunate that some people are so preoccupied with their political fervor that they inject every topic, no matter the subject, with their political views.
  20. #20  
    Cut-backs in needed regulation (coming from political philosophy "Leave it to the market to self-regulate") can lead to economic problems.

    Remember, Enron lead to Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

    BTW, the Fed is now proposing regulations of the sub-prime lending standards.
    --
    Aloke
    Cingular GSM
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