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  1.    #1  
    The Iowa caucus is in a week. NH three days after that.

    Which democrat and which republican do you expect to win Iowa, which NH ??

    Who do you think will be their respective parties nominee ???

    Oh -- and why ???


    Had Iowa held its caucus 10 days ago, or even last week -- BARYE's gut believes that Obama would have won. Edwards would have been a close second, while Hillary would have been a fading third.

    But from my remote perch in the dank dungeon of some distant unknown land of solitary rendition, I get the sense that she has stabilized as Edwards and Obama have begun to scratch and bleed each other into 2nd and 3rd.

    Stories pushed by Obama about Edward's winking cooperation with a union's semi unethical advertising on Edward's behalf, has perhaps sullied him with a stain of hypocrisy after how loudly he's attacked others for their taking PAK money.

    Obama, probably fearing both the peculiar dynamics of Iowa's caucus rules (where an attendees 2nd choice is almost as important as their first) -- and the strength of Edwards personal connections among Iowans (that were sowed years ago), maybe felt compelled to preempt Edwards stealth momentum.

    My recollection of Iowa’s arcane rules is that in each individual caucus only supporters of the top 3 candidates can elect delegates. Advocates on behalf of 2nd and 3rd tier people (like Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Gravel, and Kucinich) have enormous pressure in such situations to form a coalition with their second (lesser of two evils) choice.

    Obama probably reasoned that anyone who had a leaning toward him or Hillary would have already been committed that way.

    Though he’s had fewer resources, Edwards has in Iowa fertile soil for his positive campaign message (especially the one remembered from ‘2004).

    Hillary is not especially concerned about Edwards winning Iowa since he’s unlikely to win NH (and he doesn’t have the resources to carry it very far after S. Carolina.) But an Edward’s win would deprive Obama of the momentum Obama needs to win NH and S. Carolina.

    So Obama -- the audacity of hope, the above the mud candidate -- attacks Edwards.

    A mistake in Iowa.

    An Iowa caucus is to voting like bacon is to eggs. (Chickens have an interest in eggs, bacon represents real commitment on the part of pigs....)

    Coming out into the mid winter’s cold to waste a tension filled 3+ hours arguing on behalf of a possible presidential candidate indicates a level of commitment that pigs could envy. In a race this tight, I think that Obama loses Iowa because not enough of his people (including out of state college students on break) come out because of their dampened enthusiasm.

    Hillary narrowly wins. Obama is a close second, Edwards within 5 percent of Obama.

    Romney has spent a fortune and more than a year stalking his Iowan prey. But time, news coverage, and a series of poor debate performances has pulled the curtain from Mr. Silly Puddy.

    Campaigning in a state where Evangelicals predominate, Romney felt compelled to re-evolve himself from a Massachusetts liberal into a Christian conservative. It nearly worked.

    Had Brownback and the other true Christian conservatives waged better campaigns and stayed longer in the race, the Evangelical pool would have remained divided and diluted. Huckabee has benefitted from being the only true conservative left. Christians rallied around him enthusiastically. That ground swell for Huckabee forced Romney to make his famously fatuous “Mormons aren’t members of a cult” speech -- where he neglected to address any of the specific things that bother Evangelicals about Mormonism.

    He has soared like a damp log ever since.

    Deathly afraid of losing Iowa, Romney has unleashed a torrent of largely accurate accusations about Huckabee: his pardoning of rapists and murders (and of rapists that then became murderers), his advocacy of tax increases, his Arkansan ethics...

    The attacks have lessened the glow of Huckabee’s halo -- but done nothing to reignite any passion for Romney. Huckerbee wins Iowa -- but by less than 10% over Romney.

    I expect that McCain will win NH, with Huckabee and Romney essentially tied for second, I expect that Ron Paul to come in a strong double digit fourth place.

    Like Edwards has done in Iowa -- MCCain has similarly bet everything on NH where he has deep roots because of his success there in 2000.

    NH knows Romney. He was the Governor of their neighboring state -- the state from where they get most of their TV news. But they know of a liberal Republican Romney. Mr. Silly Puddy is in effect coming home to those who really know him. Second place in Iowa ain’t gonna help Mr. Momentum much neither.

    In contrast MCCain has run on the strength of straight talk authenticity. A state where independents can declare on primary day their party affiliation, Obama’s loss (??) in Iowa will make more conservative independents cast their votes for MCCain (as well as for Ron Paul).

    If Hillary wins Iowa -- even if marginally -- I expect that she’ll win NH by at least 5% and eventually become the nominee (despite a hard fight from Obama until after California).

    Guiliani, Thompson, and Romney seem to have next to no chance now to become their party’s nominee.

    Huckabee has more skeletons in his closet than Jeffrey Dalmer so its hard to imagine him getting the nomination.

    I expect that MCCain could well be the GOP’s nominee.


    So again -- Which democrat and which republican do you expect to win Iowa, which NH ??

    Who do you think will be their respective parties nominee ???

    (Oh -- and why ???)
    Last edited by BARYE; 12/27/2007 at 10:28 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  2. #2  
    Given that I don't follow politics in other states, I really can't say who I'd expect to win. However, I can offer the candidates that I'd most like to see win their nomination and why. FWIW, I'm a registered Libertarian and unlikely to vote for either of the big parties if the LP puts anyone with quality stances up.

    Out of the Democrats, the only person I could see myself voting for is Obama. He doesn't have much executive experience, but he seems to have vision and charisma, which are two important qualities in a President. His lack of experience also brings with it less baggage than his closest competitors. The Bushes and Clintons are too polarizing, and while I love when the government doesn't get to spend my money any faster, the environment their supporters and detractors create is wearisome.

    On the Republican side, Ron Paul is the only choice I'd like. Failing that, I'd consider McCain, although I've never been comfortable about him. About the only Paul positions I can think of that I disagree with are the ones related to religion. He doesn't stand a chance, though.

    Now, down to brass tacks...If the race was between A and B (and C), who would I vote for:

    Any Dem vs. Any Rep. vs. Any half-decent Lib. = Libertarian
    Obama (or any of the rest of the Dems) vs. Paul = Paul
    Obama vs. McCain (or any of the rest of the Reps) = Obama
    Clinton vs. McCain = McCain
    Clinton vs. Any other Rep. = Libertarian even if they ran an empty suit
    ‎"Is that suck and salvage the Kevin Costner method?" - Chris Matthews on Hardball, July 6, 2010. Wonder if he's talking about his oil device or his movie career...
  3.    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    The Iowa caucus is in a week. NH 5 days after that.

    Which democrat and which republican do you expect to win Iowa, which NH ??

    Who do you think will be their respective parties nominee ???


    ...Hillary narrowly wins Iowa. Obama is a close second, Edwards within 5 percent of Obama.

    ...Huckerbee wins Iowa -- but by less than 10% over Romney.

    I expect that McCain will win NH, with Huckabee and Romney essentially tied for second, I expect that Ron Paul to come in a strong double digit fourth place.


    ...If Hillary wins Iowa -- even if marginally -- I expect that she’ll win NH by at least 5% and eventually become the nominee (despite a hard fight from Obama until after California).

    ...I expect that MCCain could well be the GOP’s nominee...
    Will no one else have the courage to make a prediction ???

    Above are my predictions from almost 4 days ago. When I made them Obama and Edwards were both leading Hillary in Iowa, and Obama lead Hillary in NH.

    Huckabee then had a 10% lead over Romney in Iowa, and in NH Romney had a narrow lead over Huckabee.

    There are now a little more than 5 days left before Iowa, and after that 5 more until NH.

    I hereby offer a challenge -- should anyone's predictions beat mine -- i.e. 1st + 2nd places in Iowa, and NH -- I will send $5 to your paypal account !!! (in the event of 2 identical guesses, earliest prediction wins).

    4 guesses. If the number of your correct guesses is the same as mine, its a draw. If I have 2 right, and you have 3, you win.

    Entries must be made before the end of the year

    BARYE


    (I'd wish you all good luck, but I don't want to lose $5 )


    BARYE's predictions:

    Iowa: 1. Hillary 2. Obama

    NH 1. Hillary 2. Obama

    GOP Iowa: 1. Huckabee 2. Romney

    GOP NH: 1. McCain 2. Romney
    Last edited by BARYE; 12/31/2007 at 04:28 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  4.    #4  
    The caucus results are in:

    Huckabee 34 Romney 25

    Obama 38 Hillary 29 Edwards 29


    Huckabee and Obama win -- Romney, Hillary, and BARYE lose.


    Though I pretty much nailed the GOP race, I mistakenly expected that Hillary was eventually going to eek out a win after Obama and Edwards scratched themselves out of first place, with their negative attacks on each other.

    I clearly underestimated the power and passion that Obama instilled in his young and first time caucus goers. From what I've heard, the turnout tonight was unprecedented and historic -- it was about double any previous' democratic Iowa caucus.

    I also wrongly thought that Xmas break would be more of a liability for out of state college students than it was. In retrospect the lengthy break from school, combined with the caucus being actually held a week and a half after christmas, permitted kids to both attend to family commitments and still have plenty of time to come back and participate in what was for almost all of them, their first chance to be a part of a genuinely historic political event.

    What is also interesting is that I have heard that many alienated former independents and republicans also cared enough to venture into the cold Iowa winter to spend several hours expressing themselves for him.


    I don't foresee Huckabee having much of a run after this except maybe for S. Carolina. He won't win NH, and I can't see him winning in either Michigan or Florida. He's hated by the rich upscale GOP who run their party, so I don't see him getting the nomination under almost any circumstances.

    Mr. Silly Puddy Romney will be lucky to come in a close second to McCain in NH -- and that’s home territory. Except for Michigan (his native birth place) I don't see Romney winning again.

    OBama has passion, charisma, and money -- but Hillary has greater skills and an unequaled mentor and advisor in Bill. The mainstream party and unions will finally conclude that Obama would be too vulnerable for many reasons to the inevitable GOP attacks for which they are justifiably renowned.

    Because of all this, I still hold to my original prediction that John McCain and Hillary would be their respective party's nominees

    (I probably will be adding more on all this later)
    Last edited by BARYE; 01/03/2008 at 11:31 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  5. #5  
    And what of Miss 9/11, himself? No mention of the 600LB Republican in the room, regarding the primaries in general?
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    The caucus results are in:

    Huckabee 34 Romney 25

    Obama 38 Hillary 29 Edwards 29

    <snip>
    Minor correction: The results Dem results are Edwards 30 Clinton 29

    Only a one percent difference, true, but it does put Clinton in a third place finish rather that a tie for second.

    What, if any, effect that may have on the remainder of the race remains to be seen.
  7.    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by lifes2short View Post
    And what of Miss 9/11, himself? No mention of the 600LB Republican in the room, regarding the primaries in general?
    Ms. 9/11 is going to shoot the full wad in Florida -- he's going to do the full Romney there, saturating the air with scary ads, and spending everything he's got.

    I don't know the debate schedule, but we have'nt yet seen rudy's nasty side.

    Mr. Silly Puddy only plays at being nasty -- Romney is only ersatz mean.

    Rudy's is the genuine NY twist the knife in while smirking, kind of mean.

    (I'll be looking forward to those debates )
    Last edited by BARYE; 01/04/2008 at 07:14 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  8.    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by mgriffith View Post
    Minor correction: The results Dem results are Edwards 30 Clinton 29

    Only a one percent difference, true, but it does put Clinton in a third place finish rather that a tie for second.

    What, if any, effect that may have on the remainder of the race remains to be seen.

    ya I could have corrected it as the numbers came in -- but I was hoping no one was going to notice

    The effect or importance depends on how much the press hates her -- what is the spin they'll put on Edwards getting a couple of hundred more supporters than she.

    I haven't seen any news since late last night, but the original breakdown of the numbers had it like 31 -30 Obama / Hillary among democrats. He crushed her with independents and republicans who voted in our caucus...
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  9. #9  
    Hurrah for Huckabee!!
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Hurrah for Huckabee!!
    A vote for Huckabee is still a vote for Giuliani.
  11. #11  
    Guliani will lose to Huck as a result of the Repub base.

    What will Huck do in a National?
  12. #12  
    Increase voter turnout among evangelicals?
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    I don't know the debate schedule, but we have'nt yet seen rudy's nasty side.
    I think in preparation for NH, there are two debates this weekend....Saturday & Sunday.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    Increase voter turnout among evangelicals?
    Yup and for every evangelical turned on by Huck what % of the general population will be turned off by the same characteristics?
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Yup and for every evangelical turned on by Huck what % of the general population will be turned off by the same characteristics?
    Doesn't matter if they don't go out and vote. I would have to say that historically it seems that those that with a conviction for one thing or another are more motivated to go out and vote than those that are turned off by one thing or another.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Yup and for every evangelical turned on by Huck what % of the general population will be turned off by the same characteristics?
    I don't know. A total of 49%?
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas View Post
    Yup and for every evangelical turned on by Huck what % of the general population will be turned off by the same characteristics?
    Those with theocratic agendas should be voting in another nation.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by lifes2short View Post
    Those with theocratic agendas should be voting in another nation.
    If you follow that line of logic the statement should be

    "Those with any agenda (against my own beliefs) should be voting in another nation."

    Be it voting against theology or for it. Be it voting for Abortion or against it. Be it voting for ignoring illegal immigration or for taking steps to eliminating it. Be it voting for Rep because the are Rep or voting for Dem because they are Dem or voting for the Green party because the are not Dem or Rep.

    In other countries it is not an option of voting in accordance to a single theology or against it's claimed beliefs, but mandatory if you want to keep your family safe. In this country it is possible to vote according to the individual's will, beliefs (or lack of), toe the line with any given party just because they are willing to be drones to it, vote against any party to show displeasure with their policies, or vote according to one's personal standards on any given issue including sex, gays rights, abortion, use of drugs / tobacco / alcohol, or whether or not the voter personally believes the candidate still believes that the real conspiracy in these modern times that needs to addressed by the next Congress is that the Easter Bunny is really Santa Clause's alter ego to help fill up his time during the off season.

    Having the ability for all to vote in accordance to their free will and conscience (no matter if they agree with me or not) is not only a right in this country but a blessing to be embraced.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    If you follow that line of logic the statement should be

    "Those with any agenda (against my own beliefs) should be voting in another nation."

    Be it voting against theology or for it. Be it voting for Abortion or against it. Be it voting for ignoring illegal immigration or for taking steps to eliminating it. Be it voting for Rep because the are Rep or voting for Dem because they are Dem or voting for the Green party because the are not Dem or Rep.

    In other countries it is not an option of voting in accordance to a single theology or against it's claimed beliefs, but mandatory if you want to keep your family safe. In this country it is possible to vote according to the individual's will, beliefs (or lack of), toe the line with any given party just because they are willing to be drones to it, vote against any party to show displeasure with their policies, or vote according to one's personal standards on any given issue including sex, gays rights, abortion, use of drugs / tobacco / alcohol, or whether or not the voter personally believes the candidate still believes that the real conspiracy in these modern times that needs to addressed by the next Congress is that the Easter Bunny is really Santa Clause's alter ego to help fill up his time during the off season.

    Having the ability for all to vote in accordance to their free will and conscience (no matter if they agree with me or not) is not only a right in this country but a blessing to be embraced.
    You obviously come from the David Barton school of denial of the founding principle of the Separation of Church and State. Otherwise, this post of yours has no meaning. Please note that I specified a theocratic agenda which is a far cry from theology, and, specifically, has nothing to do with the christianity of christ.
    Last edited by lifes2short; 01/05/2008 at 12:51 AM.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    I don't foresee Huckabee having much of a run after this except maybe for S. Carolina. He won't win NH, and I can't see him winning in either Michigan or Florida. He's hated by the rich upscale GOP who run their party, so I don't see him getting the nomination under almost any circumstances.
    considering his own party have started to run negative ads about him, I doubt if he has a chance.

    Well, he could since guili has family issues and seems to be hanging on to "stay in Iraq... increase troops... spend more money."

    Rom has religious issues (right or wrong).

    If anyone on the republican side can win in Nov, it is huckabee... sorry to say.
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