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  1.    #1  
    I am just curious what people are doing given the current market conditions. Are you riding this downturn out or are you selling out of stocks or funds and waiting on the sidelines for safer times.

    My wife started her 401k plan last year but is a bit uneasy after already giving back quite a bit during the recent crash.

    I don't think this subprime problem is going away in a year and am worried next year may actually be negative all the way through.

    My gut tells me to pull out and wait this mess out. What is everyone else doing?
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by logmein View Post
    I am just curious what people are doing given the current market conditions. Are you riding this downturn out or are you selling out of stocks or funds and waiting on the sidelines for safer times.

    My wife started her 401k plan last year but is a bit uneasy after already giving back quite a bit during the recent crash.

    I don't think this subprime problem is going away in a year and am worried next year may actually be negative all the way through.

    My gut tells me to pull out and wait this mess out. What is everyone else doing?

    Buy on the down.
  3. #3  
    Balanced global portfolio and above.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by logmein View Post
    I am just curious what people are doing given the current market conditions. Are you riding this downturn out or are you selling out of stocks or funds and waiting on the sidelines for safer times.

    My wife started her 401k plan last year but is a bit uneasy after already giving back quite a bit during the recent crash.

    I don't think this subprime problem is going away in a year and am worried next year may actually be negative all the way through.

    My gut tells me to pull out and wait this mess out. What is everyone else doing?
    your gut is probably a better prophet than most.

    There's alot of bad stuff out there, and the Fed has not been nearly as agressive in cutting rates as they ought have. They are apparently both trying to fight inflation and maybe stop a run on the dollar. They should have cut a 1/2 point instead of the 1/4 they gave up.

    Our currency is in crisis -- and it has the potential to get much much worse. (I may write more about this in the "mortgage" thread later today.)

    If China diversifies its currency holdings as I fear and expect -- the dollar will be in complete free fall.

    Asian markets are down big today in large part fears about the dollar and other currency issues in regard to the Yen.

    The China stock market so much reminds me of the Nikkei in the early 90's.

    As for me, I'm down for year as of now.

    Deciding whether to close positions that you still hope will come back is so tough psychologically for any one.
    Last edited by BARYE; 11/12/2007 at 11:08 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  5. #5  
    Want to know what to do?

    Encourage yourself and others to turn off the news and go about normal economic life.

    If you need a place to live, go buy a house you can afford.

    If you need transportatipon, go buy a reliable vehicle you can afford.

    Take a family vacation somewhere in the good ol' US of A.

    Invest in businesses producing products and services you value in a manner consistent with your principles.
  6. gojeda's Avatar
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    #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by shopharim View Post
    Want to know what to do?

    Encourage yourself and others to turn off the news and go about normal economic life.

    If you need a place to live, go buy a house you can afford.

    If you need transportatipon, go buy a reliable vehicle you can afford.

    Take a family vacation somewhere in the good ol' US of A.

    Invest in businesses producing products and services you value in a manner consistent with your principles.
    Here here....

    .....and if you are in the stock market, stay in it for the long haul.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by shopharim View Post
    Want to know what to do?

    Encourage yourself and others to turn off the news and go about normal economic life.

    If you need a place to live, go buy a house you can afford.

    If you need transportatipon, go buy a reliable vehicle you can afford.

    Take a family vacation somewhere in the good ol' US of A.

    Invest in businesses producing products and services you value in a manner consistent with your principles.
    Isn't this exactly what people were NOT doing last year and earlier this year?

    I'm waiting for oil to be priced in Euros...

    Surur
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    ...
    I'm waiting for oil to be priced in Euros...

    Surur
    if (or maybe when) that happens, the dollar could plummet.

    There is a perfect storm of international animus toward america, the product of nearly 8 yrs of junior's ignorant international arrogance and economic stupidity.

    He has borrowed to pay for a devastating war. He has watched as the budget and trade deficits have mushroomed.

    Arabs, Russians, and Venezuelans who dislike america because of junior are also being hurt by the dollar. Their anger and self interest will likely align.

    The dollar will suffer the consequences and be one of his last casualities.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  9. #9  
    almost 2 month ago I wrote in more depth about the dollar's collapse and the consequences that could come from it:

    http://discussion.treocentral.com/sh...2&postcount=68

    as a result of the Fed's (much needed) cut in interest rates, the dollar has plummeted in value against most other currencies -- especially the Euro and the Yen.

    At some point the dollar's role as the "reserve" currency, as the safe instrument into which assets can be warehoused and international trade conducted, will be threatened.

    OPEC oil trade is priced everywhere in dollars. Nations who are already unhappy with american policies are being further upset by the dollars discounting effect upon their wealth. The dollar's drop means that they get less value for everything they sell.

    China -- with its stupendous trade imbalance with the US, has been largely investing in dollar denominated assets to warehouse its huge dollar surplus. As the dollar falls in value, those assets fall as well -- increasing their anxiety, and natural desire to diversify where they store their money.

    The "carry trade", where hedge funds had borrowed gigantic amounts of yen (because of low interest rates and a stable or appreciating dollar), has been reversed -- and now hedge funds have had to pay back these gigantic loans because the yen has been rising so aggressively versus the dollar.

    The US benefits immeasurably from the "float" of our currency that exists in the world: the billions and billions of dollars stuffed in mattresses, passed between foreign banks, held in dollar denominated assets, and used as an international trading currency. One of our biggest and most valuable exports is all this green paper.

    If oil markets, international traders, and asian exporters begin to reverse their reliance on dollars, a tipping point can occur overnight that could take the dollar's value down precipitously.

    The potential effects on the US could be profound.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    Arabs, Russians, and Venezuelans who dislike america because of junior are also being hurt by the dollar. Their anger and self interest will likely align.
    Could the Chinese have possibly dreamt of a more strongly leveraged world position to be in?
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by lifes2short View Post
    Could the Chinese have possibly dreamt of a more strongly leveraged world position to be in?
    where are junior's apologists with the saying:

    "owe the bank $1,000 and they own you -- owe the bank a Billion, and you own the bank..."
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    where are junior's apologists with the saying:

    "owe the bank $1,000 and they own you -- owe the bank a Billion, and you own the bank..."
    So that's Georgie's neocon definition of his new "ownership society", eh?
  13. #13  
    anyone who gets out of the stockmarket in a down turn is an *****. It always goes up eventually.

    Great post shopharim!
  14. #14  
    Yes, just ask Palm share holders. Palm shares will definitely reach 600 dollars again! Just wait!

    Surur.
  15. gojeda's Avatar
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    #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Yes, just ask Palm share holders. Palm shares will definitely reach 600 dollars again! Just wait!

    Surur.
    So you are saying Palm's woes are due to market conditions?
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    So you are saying Palm's woes are due to market conditions?
    No, I am saying their $600 share price was due to market conditions (a little thing called the dot com bubble) and that we are/have been in a bubble, which which will inevitably pop.

    Or do you actually think RIMM's $60 billion dollar valuation is justified?

    Surur
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by Woof View Post
    anyone who gets out of the stockmarket in a down turn is an *****. It always goes up eventually.

    Great post shopharim!
    Woof, I know that your advice (as well as everyone elses) is well intended.

    And often times its the right advice. But sometimes its not.

    When the stocks of good companies go down just because of a economic or market problems -- problems unconnected to the successful company -- it may well be a good time to buy the company's stock.

    But sometimes -- like when the tech bubble burst and the world as you'd known it, changed -- it made sense to sell everything, irrespective of whether you were in the black or not.

    Banking, brokerage, mortgage lending, and housing company stocks are down now, and many will not recover. There are for example rumours that E-Trade will soon go into bankruptcy.

    But if, on the other hand, your company is doing alot of foreign trade then the dollar falling in value becomes a positive.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  18. gojeda's Avatar
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    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    No, I am saying their $600 share price was due to market conditions (a little thing called the dot com bubble) and that we are/have been in a bubble, which which will inevitably pop.

    Or do you actually think RIMM's $60 billion dollar valuation is justified?

    Surur
    Which company are we talking about here? RIM or Palm? Big difference I would say.

    Secondly, last time I checked, all the major indices are up over levels of, saym, 1995. I believe that was the point the gentleman made earlier - the real money is made over a significant period of time in the markets.
  19. gojeda's Avatar
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    #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    But sometimes -- like when the tech bubble burst and the world as you'd known it, changed -- it made sense to sell everything, irrespective of whether you were in the black or not.
    The DJIA is above dot.com burst and 9/11 levels. I think you have difficulty convincing someone that MMM, for example, is a bad long term investment.

    Was anyone really caught by surprise by the dot.com fiasco? Did anyone really think that type of growth was sustainable?

    Banking, brokerage, mortgage lending, and housing company stocks are down now, and many will not recover. There are for example rumours that E-Trade will soon go into bankruptcy.
    As long as people are spending money, everything will recover sooner or later.
  20. gojeda's Avatar
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    #20  
    dupe post
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