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  1. #41  
    Quote Originally Posted by shopharim View Post
    If by inventiveness, creativity and industriousness you mean exchanging worthless paper for real goods, then I would call it ingenious....that is, until your partners come to view your paper as worthless (especially if you've abandoned the production of real goods, and relied on your role as the "banker" as the means of your success).

    If on the other hand, your paper represented something of intrinsic value, you are still a viable participant in the trade game (as long as you possess that something, I suppose)
    perhaps our views are not so far apart --

    Did you see my above earlier self quoting post, where I had written:

    ...At some point the dollar's role as the "reserve" currency, as the safe instrument into which assets can be warehoused and international trade conducted, will be threatened...


    ...The US benefits immeasurably from the "float" of our currency that exists in the world: the billions and billions of dollars stuffed in mattresses, passed between foreign banks, held in dollar denominated assets, and used as an international trading currency. One of our biggest and most valuable exports is all this green paper...
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  2. #42  
    Surely even gold does not have huge intrinsic value?

    Surur
  3. #43  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Surely even gold does not have huge intrinsic value?
    Excellent...someone else who groks the big picture.
    ‎"Is that suck and salvage the Kevin Costner method?" - Chris Matthews on Hardball, July 6, 2010. Wonder if he's talking about his oil device or his movie career...
  4. LennyV's Avatar
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    #44  
    Guys, you can discuss this to death but lets address Logmeins question.

    Logmein, you CANNOT time the market.

    If you are investing in your 401k you are investing in your future. Diversify your portfolio. The market will go up and down but when you are retiring you will have made money. As you get closer to retirement you will scale back the risk on your portfolio.

    Find yourself a good fee based fianacial planner as well as a good accountant. As your wealth grows add a estate lawyer to your team.

    As you read above don't buy into the magazine or news reports. You will read and hear of booms and busts. If they are reporting it then it has already happened. Too late.

    To many people buy and sell based on what is hot or what is not and all they do is lose wealth.

    Good luck!
    Lenny


    Ice Visor Deluxe-->Treo 90-->Treo 650--> Treo 700p-->Burgundy Treo 755p -->Onyx Centro--> Pre Minus--> Pixi Minus

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  5. gojeda's Avatar
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    #45  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    everything doesn't always recover.

    There are dozens, maybe hundreds of Dot Bomb stocks that sizzled, exploded, and dissapeared.
    Those stocks were not viable to begin with, which is a totally different discussion altogether. Clinton and Co., the chief architects of that fantastical feeding frenzy called the dot.com boom/bomb, never quite got around to telling investors to put the brakes on. Perhaps, if they did, it would not have taken the country years to recover.

    Is it your position that companies never tank during a bull market?

    The mortgage brokers were hot stocks 6-8 months ago. There had been a surge of desire to purchase them by investment bankers and brokers. Where are they now ??
    You cause and effect relationships are a bit confused.

    The subprime market was speculatory in nature and could have come about in a bull or bear market. Now they are getting burned because of bad loans - not because of some downturn in the market.

    As for your friend - the wisest advice that someone can give him is that next time he goes into business, make sure he turns a profit.
  6. #46  
    Quote Originally Posted by gojeda View Post
    Those stocks were not viable to begin with, which is a totally different discussion altogether. Clinton and Co., the chief architects of that fantastical feeding frenzy called the dot.com boom/bomb, never quite got around to telling investors to put the brakes on. Perhaps, if they did, it would not have taken the country years to recover.

    Is it your position that companies never tank during a bull market?
    Companies can fail at any time.

    When whole sectors fail -- or even when one gigantic hedge fund fails (i.e. Long Term Capitol), it can bring down whole markets. If the Fed is incompetent (as junior's has shown itself to be) a broken market begets a recession.

    When what fails is as central as the housing, lending, and credit sector is to this economy, the potential is catastrophic.

    And when all this happens against a background of mushrooming budget deficits, trade deficits, an unpaid for entirely unnecessary war, and a cratering currency -- its like a perfect storm.

    You cause and effect relationships are a bit confused.

    The subprime market was speculatory in nature and could have come about in a bull or bear market. Now they are getting burned because of bad loans - not because of some downturn in the market.

    As for your friend - the wisest advice that someone can give him is that next time he goes into business, make sure he turns a profit.
    I'll address this in the Mortgage thread ...
    Last edited by BARYE; 11/14/2007 at 02:25 PM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  7. #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Surely even gold does not have huge intrinsic value?

    Surur
    Good point.

    I won't attempt to describe the levels of introspection this statement (along with Toby's about having a fiat system since 1933) prompted.

    Suffice it to say, I realize that a faith&credit-backed dollar is but a symptom my real concern, which is: the conduit (US Gov't) I have been relying on for acquiring goods (rather than producing them for myself) is losing its leverage in the market place.
  8. #48  
    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Excellent...someone else who groks the big picture.
    Actually, I believe just about all of us "groks" the big picture. Some of us just don't mind getting involved in the messy, devilish internals.
  9. #49  
    Quote Originally Posted by lifes2short View Post
    Actually, I believe just about all of us "groks" the big picture.
    It would be grok, but I'm not sure that I'd agree given the direction so far. Regardless, don't make it more than it is.
    Some of us just don't mind getting involved in the messy, devilish internals.
    Go right ahead.
    ‎"Is that suck and salvage the Kevin Costner method?" - Chris Matthews on Hardball, July 6, 2010. Wonder if he's talking about his oil device or his movie career...
  10. #50  
    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Go right ahead.
    Impressive! Wasn't aware you had the authority to grant such permission.
  11. #51  
    Quote Originally Posted by lifes2short View Post
    Impressive! Wasn't aware you had the authority to grant such permission.
    It goes along with being an Evil Overlord.
    ‎"Is that suck and salvage the Kevin Costner method?" - Chris Matthews on Hardball, July 6, 2010. Wonder if he's talking about his oil device or his movie career...
  12. #52  
    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    It goes along with being an Evil Overlord.
    Well, isn't that special?
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