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  1.    #1  
    Is history about to recycle ??

    China has become the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil. With the world’s fastest growing economy, gazillions of ambitious industrious people, and a surging middle class who’re buying cars at a disturbing rate, it’s likely to surpass America’s fuel usage in not many years.

    America’s relationship with Asia more or less began with oil.

    Whale oil.

    America was the leading producer of oil extracted from whales in the 18th century -- and the pursuit of the increasingly hard find animals lead many whalers to venture into the waters near Japan.

    Commodore Perry forcibly “opened” japan in 1853 largely because the Japanese would not allow our whalers to resupply or find shelter in its harbors, and they had been VERY inhospitable to our sailors who had wrecked there.

    The national humiliation that Commodore Perry provoked caused the Japanese to modernize at an incredible pace – becoming a semi-super power able to themselves humiliate and defeat the Russians in only 50 years.

    The maniacal industrialization of the Japanese produced an intense craving for oil – of which we were one of world’s the chief suppliers.

    To punish them for their invasion and occupation of China we embargoed our oil shipments to them

    Without getting much into the details for this metaphor, WW2 with Japan was mostly the product of their desperation for oil.

    (One of the 3 great blunders of Pearl Harbor was not destroying the oil storage tanks there, which would have prevented us from counter attacking in the Coral Sea and Midway).

    Now China is similarly desperate for oil to feed its own modernization. This has prompted it to become increasingly friendly with Iran and to buy friendship and supplies from an assortment of nations around the world – including Africa and S. America.

    They are in the process of building close relationships with nations that had formerly been our close “allies” -- countries like Venezuela and Bolivia -- and they’ve have attempted to buy an american oil company as well.

    Additionally China & Japan is far and away the largest financiers of our bursting national debt because of our mawing trade defict. And this mushrooming debt hangs like a Damoclesian sword over both us and Asia.

    And rising oil prices have also contributed mightily as well to that monstrously growing debt.

    A variety of mostly bad stuff can flow from this bad debt in the foreseeable future unless enormous care is used.

    If the FED were to reduce interest rates because of a recession, the value of the dollar -- already considerably weakened the last 6 years -- would potentially free fall. The value of these countries dollar holdings would be at risk, and they would strongly consider diversifying more of their investments away from the dollar. This would further weaken it, causing OPEC to price oil instead in EUROs.

    One of the underappreciated factors in our economic prosperity is the value we get from the “float” we enjoy because world trade is conducted in dollars.

    Our most valuable export is not brains, movies, or music -- its paper. Green paper.

    We wrest an enormous benefit because people and nations around the planet warehouse the value of their work and commodities under their mattresses in our green paper.

    What does the future hold for us and Asia ?? ?

    Can we accept an Asia richer, as powerful, and as aggressive as ourselves ??
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  2. #2  
    Quote:
    What does the future hold for us and Asia ?? ?

    A Gazillion more Top Ramen noodles.

    A Gazillion More Cup 'O' Noodles.

    A Gazillion more Asian Buffet restuarants.

    Chuck
  3. #3  
    I love being able to apply past lessons. Selectively, of course.
  4. #4  
    Not that there's no applicable similarity, it's just some folks seem to only selectively or inappropriatly (in my view) apply them.
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE

    ...Additionally China & Japan is far and away the largest financiers of our bursting national debt because of our mawing trade defict. And this mushrooming debt hangs like a Damoclesian sword over both us and Asia.

    And rising oil prices have also contributed mightily as well to that monstrously growing debt.

    A variety of mostly bad stuff can flow from this bad debt in the foreseeable future unless enormous care is used.

    If the FED were to reduce interest rates because of a recession, the value of the dollar -- already considerably weakened the last 6 years -- would potentially free fall. The value of these countries dollar holdings would be at risk, and they would strongly consider diversifying more of their investments away from the dollar. This would further weaken it, causing OPEC to price oil instead in EUROs.

    One of the underappreciated factors in our economic prosperity is the value we get from the “float” we enjoy because world trade is conducted in dollars.

    Our most valuable export is not brains, movies, or music -- its paper. Green paper.

    We wrest an enormous benefit because people and nations around the planet warehouse the value of their work and commodities under their mattresses in our green paper.
    Has the currency break begun ???

    Dollar dips below 109 yen ahead of U.S. inflation
    May 1, 2006 By Carolyn Cohn

    LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar hit an 8-month low against the yen on Wednesday, on a growing market view that it needs to fall to correct imbalances in the global economy.

    A weak reading in the U.S. consumer price index for April, due at 1230 GMT, could reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June after tightening credit at 16 consecutive policy meetings.

    "Dollar/yen has broken to new lows. There's a longer-term perception in the market that the dollar has to go down as part of the route to remove structural imbalances, which are greatest between Asia and the United States. The trend is continuing," said Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada.

    "Inflation data is critical to rate expectations. A soft core CPI number would take out residual expectations of a June rate hike. The dollar would take another leg down," he added.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  6. #6  
    Only 1 in 7 Chinese households own a car. That leaves a lot of room for increased demand.
  7. #7  
    Scary, its something that needs to be addressed, but how i dont know.
    Nokia 3210 > Nokia 3310 >Palm Vx > Palm M105 >Treo 180g and Nokia 8850 > Treo 270 > Treo 600 > Sony TH55 > Tapwave Zodiac 2 > Treo 650 GSM > Imate KJam > Treo 750v

    Formerly Known As PRANKSTAR
  8. #8  
    It's tougher for countries that are dependent on one another to lob bombs along with their trade cargo. That is yet another reason why we need to embrace international trade instead of erecting protectionist borders.

    Will China (and others) become better off in the future? Of course. Am I afraid of that? Not at all. The idea of paying $3 for a gallon of gasoline is a small price to pay as we watch a billion people better themselves through industry and frugality (thanks Mr. Franklin) instead of fighting.

    I welcome tomorrow.
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by KRamsauer
    It's tougher for countries that are dependent on one another to lob bombs along with their trade cargo. That is yet another reason why we need to embrace international trade instead of erecting protectionist borders.

    Will China (and others) become better off in the future? Of course. Am I afraid of that? Not at all. The idea of paying $3 for a gallon of gasoline is a small price to pay as we watch a billion people better themselves through industry and frugality (thanks Mr. Franklin) instead of fighting.

    I welcome tomorrow.
    But what if that country does not play by the international trade rules? What if they enforce unbalanced tarriffs on their end and demand low tarriffs on the other? What if they unethically play with the value of their currency to give a inflated advantage against the rest of the world? What if they start to aggressively dominate as the buyer of resources leaving us at the mercy of not only the another country as the seller, but in addition to that at the mercy of a 3rd country as the buyer that helps to determine supply and demand and prices paid?
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal
    But what if that country does not play the international trade rules? What if they start to aggressively dominate as the buyer of resources leaving us at the mercy of not only the another country as the seller, but in addition to that at the mercy of a 3rd country as the buyer that helps to determine supply and demand and prices paid?
    A lot of those times people who make those assertions are just full of sour grapes. They don't like it when other people better themselves--it makes them feel worse. I believe we must move beyond such schoolyard name calling.

    I can't believe you are saying that other countries don't have the right to buy goods for their own development. It smacks of intolerance at best, a desire for empire at worst. And in regards to the first sentence, lets not forget which country has recently joined the WTO and which country continues to slap huge import tariffs on farm goods. China and U.S., respectively.
  11. #11  
    Not full of sour grapes, but simply restating many questions that are now being posed concerning China. I do feel that they are legitimate questions of discussion.

    I am not talking about restricting the rights of countries to buy goods and products, but abusing those for alternative gains.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal
    I am not talking about restricting the rights of countries to buy goods and products, but abusing those for alternative gains.
    It's easy to say "abusing" when someone is willing to pay more than you.
  13. #13  
    I am not talking about normal trade negotiations.

    It is hypothetical that, that this could be used as a cold war type weapon. Would you have a problem if China purposely paid 75% more than was necessary for oil, in an apparent attempt to hurt our economy? I would define that as abuse.

    Or if there is a real oil crisis on a domestic basis....i.e. we get hit hard by 5 level 5 hurricanes in one year that knocks out 85% of our refineries and closes 55% of our oil receiving ports. We virtually totally dependent on foreign oil while we attempt to get back online. Oil shipments are on the way to the US, and China (who is not in a crisis) steps in and pays double for the oil that is suppose to be going to the States.

    Again, these are what if scenarios. But with the potential increase in their demands, their current standing in international trade, ect.... these are scenarios of concern that I have read about or seen documentaries on.

    Again, this is only speculating on possibilities of an oil cold war scenario.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by KRamsauer
    It's tougher for countries that are dependent on one another to lob bombs along with their trade cargo. That is yet another reason why we need to embrace international trade instead of erecting protectionist borders.

    Will China (and others) become better off in the future? Of course. Am I afraid of that? Not at all. The idea of paying $3 for a gallon of gasoline is a small price to pay as we watch a billion people better themselves through industry and frugality (thanks Mr. Franklin) instead of fighting.

    I welcome tomorrow.
    It is a lovely bit of Capitalism WITHOUT democracy ain't it?

    advertisement----> This post brought to you by Wal Mart cause without Chinese Political Prisoner factory workers, you'd have to pay $12 for that t-shirt instead of $10. (oh, and sorry about moving your previously employment overseas)
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas
    It is a lovely bit of Capitalism WITHOUT democracy ain't it?
    Wow, another note worthy moment, when I totally agree with you.

    China's gov willingness to profit off of their slave....er....cheap....uhm....economical labor.....is a major issue with today's current trade balance.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas
    It is a lovely bit of Capitalism WITHOUT democracy ain't it?
    They seem to be moving in the right direction, which from your previous posts, I gather you think isn't happening here.

    My point remains the same: people are afraid of other people's progress and make up wild scenarios (see above) to support that fear. Then they apply their own standards (see your post) to people in a completely different situation to come to the conclusion that it is best we keep them in poverty because, after all, it's for their own good and they made us do it.

    Makes me sick, really.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal
    Wow, another note worthy moment, when I totally agree with you.

    China's gov willingness to profit off of their slave....er....cheap....uhm....economical labor.....is a major issue with today's current trade balance.
    How many people have been enslaved? Just because you won't do it, don't think that it's slavery. I wouldn't eat eggplant if you gave it to me, but that doesn't mean eggplant lovers are slaves.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by KRamsauer
    They seem to be moving in the right direction, which from your previous posts, I gather you think isn't happening here.

    My point remains the same: people are afraid of other people's progress and make up wild scenarios (see above) to support that fear. Then they apply their own standards (see your post) to people in a completely different situation to come to the conclusion that it is best we keep them in poverty because, after all, it's for their own good and they made us do it.

    Makes me sick, really.
    I have a special window into this topic, my girlfriend works for a major US dept store in the department which is tsked with keeping track of all factories the store buys from regarding worker's conditions, fair wages, etc, so forgive me if I don't share your rose colored lenses (or self delusion as a result of stock investment in chinese companies, not you, some friends of mine).

    Or, one could just watch FrontLine.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by daThomas
    I have a special window into this topic, my girlfriend works for a major US dept store in the department which is tsked with keeping track of all factories the store buys from regarding worker's conditions, fair wages, etc, so forgive me if I don't share your rose colored lenses (or self delusion as a result of stock investment in chinese companies, not you, some friends of mine).

    Or, one could just watch FrontLine.
    TV. Answers all our problems. Listen, I'm not saying there are no problems in China (heck, didn't someone run a U.S. presidential campaign with the slogan "Two Americas" [the Frontline is about "Two Chinas"]). All I'm saying is that if they spoke our language and looked like us, we'd have no problem with them. And that, my friend, is what makes me want to throw up.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by KRamsauer
    TV. Answers all our problems. Listen, I'm not saying there are no problems in China (heck, didn't someone run a U.S. presidential campaign with the slogan "Two Americas" [the Frontline is about "Two Chinas"]). All I'm saying is that if they spoke our language and looked like us, we'd have no problem with them. And that, my friend, is what makes me want to throw up.
    That is absolutely not the case. It has nothing to do with language and race. It has to do with a gov't which has chosen the unequal distribution of wealth AND the unequal distribution of power. My comments have nothing to do with the people of China but rather the gov't we prop up with our mostly wasteful consumerism. And don't just ignore the other part of my prior post with the dismissive "TV answers all our problems" line.
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