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  1. #101  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    As the timeline you linked to shows, there were rumors, and unsubstantiated evidence (often times the sources are 5-10 years after the fact). But the full extent of it didn't come out until 2002.
    The reference which I cited shows well over 1000 entries, many of them seem to be well documented pieces of evidence, that Iran was continuing to develop nuclear technology between 1979 and 2002. This is contained in the links for the individual years on the page below.
    http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/1825.html

    In contrast, the same source assembled a chronology of Iraq's nuclear weapons activities post gulf war to the time of the invasion, there were only 51 entries, and I did not see any of them offering convincing evidence of continuing development Iraq's nuclear program.
    http://www.nti.org/e_research/profil...2121_3293.html

    At any rate, I am not here to argue this point ad infinitum, I am not an intelligence or nuclear expert and of course hindsight is golden, but the main point I was making earlier was that at the time that you started the thread, everyone was well aware of Iran's nuclear ambitions, and it really was not much of a question.

    Your explanation that it was irony was good enough for me. At any rate, I do appreciate this thread, and the references and information in general which you contribute to treocentral Hobbes. Take care and I look forward to future discussions.
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    #102  
    and isn't it ironic? don't ya think?

    its like ray ee ain, on your wedding date...

    its a free ride, when you've already paid...

    its the good advice, that ya just didn't take

    its the terrorist iran, that we just didn't bake,

    but who wouldve thought? it figures!!!
    I gotta have more cowbell
  3.    #103  
    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    The reference which I cited shows well over 1000 entries, many of them seem to be well documented pieces of evidence, that Iran was continuing to develop nuclear technology between 1979 and 2002. This is contained in the links for the individual years on the page below.
    http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/1825.html
    I agree. There is a whole mix. Many items were official announcements, like when Russia announced it was sending some Nuke engineers around 1985 to help with one of the "energy" nuke plants that they did not close after 1979. There are some that are officially noted 5-10 years later. And a lot of "may haves" which is usually considered pretty good report in the intel world without wanting to reveal sources or evidence without a second form of verification.

    Why then did Clinton let all of this go on so long during the 90s? The question of Bush Jr has been discussed several times here. Bush Sr was preoccupied with the initial Iraq war and was politically spent by the end but could have certainly taken some actions. Reagan was certainly preoccupied with bringing down Russia and ending the cold war. Bill probably had the best opportunity to take this information and act. But still until the UN went in and found the finely enriched uranium, it was a lot of intel with no solid physical confirmation.

    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    In contrast, the same source assembled a chronology of Iraq's nuclear weapons activities post gulf war to the time of the invasion, there were only 51 entries, and I did not see any of them offering convincing evidence of continuing development Iraq's nuclear program.
    http://www.nti.org/e_research/profil...2121_3293.html
    You are only looking at the Iraqi summary. The Iran Summary has about the same amount of Nuke entries as well. Look at Iraqi's year by year listing in your link, like you did with Iran, and you will find hundreds and hundreds of entries as well.

    In fact until we entered Iraq, both Iran and Iraq listings look very similar in the known evidence, presumed evidence, and official reports.

    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    At any rate, I am not here to argue this point ad infinitum, I am not an intelligence or nuclear expert and of course hindsight is golden, but the main point I was making earlier was that at the time that you started the thread, everyone was well aware of Iran's nuclear ambitions, and it really was not much of a question.
    This thread is more about what is happening today with the situation than anything else.

    I agree as I did not think of this as any type of argument. I actually found it very educational and really do appreciate the links you provided as it does show many similarities between Iran and Iraq's intel known throughout the years. Thanks.
  4.    #104  
    Quote Originally Posted by vw2002 View Post
    and isn't it ironic? don't ya think?

    its like ray ee ain, on your wedding date...

    its a free ride, when you've already paid...

    its the good advice, that ya just didn't take

    its the terrorist iran, that we just didn't bake,

    but who wouldve thought? it figures!!!
    I agree. The US foreign policy and interactions with specific countries throughout our history is packed full of Ironic situations that we have had to face due to largely to past actions by us. I always find it interesting (aka often times sad, frustrating, tragic, etc...) what we have have to sometimes do to try to fix it.
  5. #105  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    Look at Iraqi's year by year listing in your link, like you did with Iran, and you will find hundreds and hundreds of entries as well.
    No one disputes Sadaam's high levels of pre Gulf War nuclear activity which represent those hundeds of entries. However, what is striking is how the listings and documentations in Iraq very precipitous drop off after the Gulf War. From hundreds in just a few years prior to the Gulf war to around 50 for the full ten years prior to the current Iraq occupation. I agree with you that, prior to 1992 the two countries nuclear build up looked similar, but over the last 15 years the patterns have not been similar at all.
  6. #106  
    Lack of entries doesn't necessarily say much.
  7. #107  
    Quote Originally Posted by sblanter View Post
    Lack of entries doesn't necessarily say much.
    In this case, the lack of entries was in good agreement with our own eventual conclusion after two years and millions of dollars searching, namely that there was no nuclear program going on in Iraq.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...wmd-edit_x.htm

  8. #108  
    Wasn't implying anything about a noocular program in Iraq.
  9. #109  
    No entries = nothing known?
  10.    #110  
    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    In this case, the lack of entries was in good agreement with our own eventual conclusion after two years and millions of dollars searching, namely that there was no nuclear program going on in Iraq.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...wmd-edit_x.htm

    The article you quoted failed to note any of the previous Administration's (i.e. Clintont's) statements and findings on the same topic.

    Following are some of the Iraq's Nuke program entries since the initial Gulf War in your link. The list is full of one statement saying this while another says that. One Iraqi official says this then Iraq is forced to produce docs that say that. But here are some of the statements about Iraq's possible nuke program from the time period in the 90s that you claim has the lack of entries:

    • After the Persian Gulf War
      Iraq establishes a program at its universities to train a new generation of nuclear scientists who are deemed more loyal to the regime and are instructed to apply their expertise only in Iraq.
      —David Albright and Khidhir Hamza, "Iraq's Reconstitution of its Nuclear Weapons Program" Arms Control Today, October 1998, <http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iraq/act1298.html>.
    • Week of 24 February 1992
      Eight managers from three German firms (H & H Metalform GmbH, Rhein-Bayern Fahrzeugbau GmbH & Co KG, and Neue Magdeburger Werkzeugmaschinenfabrik GmbH) are arrested and suspected of aiding Iraq's clandestine nuclear and non-conventional weapons program. IAEA inspectors find equipment from all three companies at various clandestine sites in Iraq.
    • August 1994
      As a result of Hamza's defection, Iraq admits that it had enriched uranium using the diffusion method.
    • September 1995
      Saddam's second son, Qusay Hussein, assumes the responsibility of concealing Iraq's nuclear program.
      —U.S. Department of State, "Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction," U.S. Government White Paper, 31 February 1998, <http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/iraq_white_paper.html>.
    • 8 Feburary 1996
      In an interview with Al-Majallah, Iraqi nuclear scientist Hussein al-Shahristani reveals that Saddam Hussein changed the peaceful nature of Iraq's nuclear program soon after taking power in July 1979 and instructed all scientific facilities to develop nuclear weapons. Al-Shahristani describes how Iraq has come close to enriching uranium to 93 percent with assistance from Western companies. He describes how during the 1980s, Iraq established 15 "major nuclear installations" capable of enriching uranium through centrifuge, electromagnetic separation (EMIS), and laser techniques. Western companies helped the Iraqi military develop complex detonation devices crucial to the successful explosion of a nuclear weapon. Al-Shahristani asserts that scientists who worked on the Iraqi nuclear weapons program are, for the most part, still in Iraq
    • November 1997
      Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz pays Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov $800,000 for strategic materials from Moscow to build up its nuclear weapons stockpile.
      —Seymour Hersh, "Saddam's Best Friend," New Yorker, 5 April 1999, <http://www.shmoo.com/mail/cypherpunks/apr99/msg00225.html>.
    • 17 August 1999
      IAEA Director-General Hans Blix says that there is evidence that Iraq is close to producing an operational nuclear weapon.
      —Touraj Shiralilou, "Defuse Saddam," Iran Daily (Tehran), 17 August 1999, <http://www.iran-daily.com>.
    • September 2000
      Saddam Hussein publicly exhorts his "Nuclear Mujahidin" to "defeat the enemy," contributing to the growing concern about a reconstituted Iraqi nuclear weapons program.
    • 15 April 2001
      Iraqi scientist Hussein al-Shahrastani, who escaped from an Iraqi prison in 1991, affirms that Saddam Hussein would have been able to produce a nuclear bomb, had he delayed the invasion of Kuwait by six months. Al-Shahrastani also asserts that Iraq still maintains a nuclear weapons program saying, "I know very well that the Iraqi regime had built and laid the foundation for nuclear installations. It had also developed a nuclear program under Jabal Himrin in northern Iraq. This project was extremely secretive, and the inspection committees did not visit it. No information is available about it or about the equipment and installations that exist there. The information I have is that Iraq is currently developing its atomic program
    • 16 January 2003
      UN inspectors discover documents related to Iraq’s nuclear program at the home of Iraqi physicist Faleh Hassan. The documents are discovered as the inspectors begin making unannounced visits to private homes of interest in Iraq. The documents at Dr. Hassan’s house appear to be related to laser enrichment, which could be used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.
    For everyone of the these entries bringing Iraq's Nuke capabilities into question there are others showing the opposite. How do you know which one is true and which on is a lie? Or how do you determine if both may be right? This is why I would never want to be in the world of intel.
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 01/23/2007 at 07:34 PM.
  11. #111  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    For everyone of the these entries bringing Iraq's Nuke capabilities into question there are others showing the opposite. How do you know which one is true and which on is a lie? Or how do you determine if both may be right? This is why I would never want to be in the world of intel.
    I agree with you that the intel on post Gulf war Iraq has been sketchy and conflicting. Obviously we disagree as to how this intel was portrayed and used, but I suspect that to argue this yet another time would neither shed new light on the subject, nor change our current views. Anyway, sorry to hijack the thread away from Iran.
  12.    #112  
    Quote Originally Posted by cellmatrix View Post
    Anyway, sorry to hijack the thread away from Iran.
    No worries, as so many comment on the reality and time lines of the status of our knowledge we had (or didn't have) when decisions had to be made about Iran vs Iraq, I think it was a valid tagent.
  13.    #113  
    Apparently to help further Iran's goal of obtaining a peaceful nuke program to provide electricity to it's happy citizens.....North Korea is going to help Iran plan and conduct an underground Nuke weapon bomb test after giving them all the data for their nuke test 2 months ago.

    Report: N. Korea Helping Iran Plan Nuclear Test
    Wednesday, January 24, 2007
    As part of their ongoing nuclear program, Iran may have entered into an agreement with North Korea in an attempt to tap into the renegade state's nuclear weapons capability, a senior European defense official told the Telegraph.

    Click here to read the Telegraph story. ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...24/wiran24.xml )

    In the understanding, North Korea said it would divulge to Iranian scientists information garnered from its successful secret test back in October.

    The senior official, whose name was not disclosed, said Iranian scientists were invited to study the results of North Korea’s underground test to aid Tehran’s own preparations.

    --------------------

    But the report said Iran may be planning to carry out a nuclear weapons test by year’s end.

    “The Iranians are working closely with the North Koreans to study the results of last year's North Korean nuclear bomb test," the European defense official told the Telegraph.

    Iranian military advisers regularly visit North Korea to participate in missile tests, the Telegraph reported.

    "All the indications are that the Iranians are working hard to prepare for their own underground nuclear test," the official said.

    FULL STORY: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,246428,00.html
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 01/25/2007 at 12:25 PM.
  14.    #114  
    Iran Confirms It Received Russian Air Defense Missile Systems
    Wednesday, January 24, 2007

    TEHRAN, Iran Iranian officials said Wednesday that they have taken delivery of advanced Russian air defense missile systems weapons intended, according to one Russian news agency, to defend Tehran's major nuclear facilities.

    FULL STORY: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,246428,00.html
  15. #115  
    I found this article interesting. It deals with questions like: What's Israel's military capabilities? If the U.S. doesn't strike, will Israel have to do it? If Bush orders a strike, will he do so out of religious conviction? Why did China cave in to the pressure?
    Link
  16. #116  
    Globalist Agenda
    globalists are engineering the downfall of the United States and working to usher in a one world government. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nuclear ambitions, the nuclear threat posed by Korea and China, as well as the massive effort to shut down free speech in America yet are borders are wide open with the USA only getting a 30% approvel rating around the world.
    Iran and Chinia have picked us out letting the world know there going to hit us with nucs.Were,s united nations hmmm maybe with a big grin.
    Great nation have fallen in the past.We really need to wake up and realize what going on.It,s call
    One world goverment
    Are last 5 presedent have brought it up many times with full support .We have not been listening.

    Cheers

    Phil C
  17. #117  
    I stumbled over this article, it is very good in terms of understanding Israel's anxiety over Iranian nuke.
    Read
  18.    #118  
    Here is another interesting article over at MSNBC about Iran threatening other countries in the region and placing itself as a major supporter of Terrorist orgs and almost blaming the US for making Iran do it.
  19. #119  
    Quote Originally Posted by impish View Post
    I stumbled over this article, it is very good in terms of understanding Israel's anxiety over Iranian nuke.
    Read
    very interesting article, thanks for posting it.

    "A Jewish state that allows itself to be threatened with nuclear weapons--by a country that denies the genocide against Europe's six million Jews while threatening Israel's six million Jews--will forfeit its right to speak in the name of Jewish history."

    a powerful statement and so true.

    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal View Post
    Here is another interesting article over at MSNBC about Iran threatening other countries in the region and placing itself as a major supporter of Terrorist orgs and almost blaming the US for making Iran do it.
    likewise interesting article, this quote sums up the problem for me:

    "I disagree with Iranian policy, but you have to give the Iranians credit," said Abdullah al-Shayji, a political science professor and head of Kuwait University's American Studies Unit. "You have to appreciate that they have an agenda, they're planning for it, they seize the opportunity, they see an American weakness and they are capitalizing on it."
  20.    #120  
    Here is another interesting article. I wonder what the dosssier really says......:

    Officials: White House Holding Back Report Detailing Iran's Meddling in Iraq
    WASHINGTON, D.C. A plan by the Bush administration to release detailed and possibly damning specific evidence linking the Iranian government to efforts to destabilize Iraq have been put on hold, U.S. officials told FOX News.

    Officials had said a "dossier" against Iran compiled by the U.S. likely would be made public at a press conference this week in Baghdad, and that the evidence would contain specifics including shipping documents, serial numbers, maps and other evidence which officials say would irrefutably link Iran to weapons shipments to Iraq.

    Now, U.S. military officials say the decision to go public with the findings has been put on hold for several reasons, including concerns over the reaction from Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as well as inevitable follow-up questions that would be raised over what the U.S. should do about it.

    -----------------

    U.S. offiicals charge Iran is supplying explosives used to make the roadside bombs causing 70 percent of the deaths of U.S. troops and backing Shiite militias opposed to the Maliki government.

    The United States also accuses Iran of secretly developing atomic weapons an allegation Tehran denies. Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment lead the U.N. Security Council to impose limited economic sanctions.

    -------------------

    (Many Senators and Presidential comments)

    ------------------

    Full Story: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,248791,00.html


    Another source that has most of the same quotes. I find it very interesting that they leave out the fact of the dossier and what it potentially or suspected to contain:

    Senators warn against war with Iran
    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...n_x.htm?csp=15
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