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  1. #361  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mac.World View Post
    Too many assumptions in your post.
    1. An app written for a Galaxy Nexus on ICS, may not work for an older HTC/LG/whatever "insert model here" on Donut, Eclair or even Froyo, since it wasn't until Gingerbread that support for things like gyroscopes, VoiP and NFC was added. While this won't effect top of the line new models, the lower end phones using 2.2 or older OS are. And one model like the Nexus, does not mean another Android based phone will operate the same way, new or not, due to manufacturer UI overlays. This is a fragmentation and manufacturer issue that currently effects all Android based phones.

    2. You also assume that Apple is sitting still and not pushing forward with new products. Point of fact is, that besides Samsung selling a few more unit in one quarter that preceeded the iphone 4s, Apple outsells every manufacturer in the smartphone category. Now add in the fact that Apple just received permission to sell the iPhone 4s in China and you see why they are selling 30+ million iphones a quarter and why Apple takes home 52% of the smartphone profit pie.

    And by the way, Nokia sells way more phones than Apple, as does Samsung I believe, but those are not all smartphones. Most are older dumb phones and make nil for the manufacturer. Additionally, you have to factor in lawsuits in the future. Will Google sidestep Oracle and Apple and not have their distributor manufacturers have to pay lcensing fees to both companies, effectively decreasing profits even more, after Microsoft takes its chunk of $5 per unit?

    The future of Android is far from certain. It will be here with us for sure, but how will it look and at what cost to the manufacturers? This
    Thanks

    To add further to your last sentence, this is what my earlier post in part was referring to: Jan 6 2011 - HTC profits crash in Q4 2011, 25.5 percent lower than in 2010
    Second quarter in a row for HTC.
    "HTC needn't ring any alarm bells just yet, it's a company with a strong portfolio of competitive products, both in the Android and Windows Phone markets, however its period of unconstrained growth seems to be at an end. Now the challenge for the company will be to stabilize its profits and ensure that they don't drop any further."
    The part in red may be a problem for every Android handset player.
    Android's market share is made up by the some of it parts: Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG, T-Mobile, etc. .

    Queue: HTC should buy webos comments.
  2. cgk
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    #362  
    The problem is time - WebOS isn't exploitable as a revenue stream for at least 12-14 months, longer depending on when it's open sourced and the more time again when someone makes the assessment to try it.

    Also you largely have the same issues that you would have with android but with none of the userbase and none of the ecology. I think if companies are looking for something else, it is more likely they will try their own proprietary OSes from scratch rather than jump upon something that has all of the same issues but none of the benefits.

    That is before you consider that by 2013/2014, I will be amazed if both android and Ios don't have next gen OSes in the pipeline to try and avoid the symbian/palm OS/blackberry problem as this cycle ends and the next one starts (with new players we don't even know about).

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
  3. #363  
    The problem is time - WebOS isn't exploitable as a revenue stream for at least 12-14 months, longer depending on when it's open sourced and the more time again when someone makes the assessment to try it.

    Also you largely have the same issues that you would have with android but with none of the userbase and none of the ecology. I think if companies are looking for something else, it is more likely they will try their own proprietary OSes from scratch rather than jump upon something that has all of the same issues but none of the benefits.

    That is before you consider that by 2013/2014, I will be amazed if both android and Ios don't have next gen OSes in the pipeline to try and avoid the symbian/palm OS/blackberry problem as this cycle ends and the next one starts (with new players we don't even know about).

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    I agree with your assessment on the timeline for producing a revenue stream. However, I don't agree on companies making their own OS. Most of them have already tried and failed. Most are traditionally hardware makers relying on others to make the software for them. They don't have the expertise in OS development that Apple (with Mac OS), Microsoft (with Windows), or even HP had (with HP-UX). Nor do they have the gut to stick it out (which HP didn't have). Others have hardware that is only tied to one market, not allowing the new OS to expand.

    The market has coalesced around app portability. What does that mean? Users want the apps they buy for their device right now to be available for the device they buy in the future, regardless of who the manufacturer is. This makes it harder on in-house developed proprietary operating systems. Apps from a different platform won't transfer over without developers re-writing them and users will have to pay again for what they feel is the same app even though it is on a different platform. It is easier and more sensible to customize an OS that is readily available. However, you will be stuck being a commodity player.

    Apple did not have this issue coming into the market. No one was really concerned with apps at the time. Apple started the app mess only after they set up an infrastructure and established a strategy that supported app portability across their product line. The iPod, iPhone, and iPad use the same operating system, have similar specifications, and have a unified App store. You can buy apps for one of these devices and it will work on the other. Developers don't have to develop specifically for one device. They are developing for the whole product line.

    The original strategy that HP had for webOS would have worked in this situation had they stuck it out. If they would have only developed one version of webOS for the Pre3, Veer, and TouchPad, then assured these devices had the same hardware specs (just different screen sizes), it would have made the platform look more appealing to developers. Their original strategy also included installing webOS on their entire computer and printer lines. Even though these devices are different then the ARM based mobile devices, the possibility of having the same OS on hundreds of million devices would have been highly appealing. Once HP's PC users got a feel for the OS on their Intel based machines, HP could have slowly replaced them with more portable, battery friendly, and cheaper to produce ARM based solutions. All the while maintaining a familiar interface, app catalog, and app portability across all of their product line.

    I think the only company in the mobile space right now that could develop their own OS and make it successful is Samsung. They could execute the strategy that HP abandoned easily. Samsung makes just about every type of computing device. They would benefit from their own OS if they pushed it across their whole product line. HTC, Motorola, and most of the others would not benefit from their own OS because they have a limited device portfolio.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  4. cgk
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    #364  
    But is the real answer that most of those companies can't benefit in either situation?

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  5. #365  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    But is the real answer that most of those companies can't benefit in either situation?

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    It all depends on their long term strategy.
  6. cgk
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    #366  
    So to go back to an earlier question I had - do we even have a rough timeline from HP?

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
  7. #367  
    Quote Originally Posted by kalel33 View Post
    ROFL, This is where you blew your argument. My last Nano had FM radio as a feature, because the masses wanted that feature. I keep replying to your comments and I don't know why. You asked about MP3 players when the Ipod came out and the Ipod couldn't even work on 95% of the computers in the world at that time. I'm not replying to you anymore because you keep on typing very wrong/ignorant info.
    Dude, putting an FM radio on one iPod model after the iPod has been around for 8 years is not saying much. If FM radios are demanded by consumers why is it not on the top selling iPod touch and iPod classic?

    My original argument was that the iPod's ease of use, etc in 2001 was more important to consumers than random features of the competition back then.

    Apple added an FM radio to the nano in 2009. Eight years after the iPods came out and owned the MP3 market for years. All that time consumers overwhelmingly bought those iPods without an FM radio. Today still you cannot get an FM tuner on the two best selling iPod models. So, as I said FM radios on MP3 players are not important to consumers.

    As to me typing wrong info. It matches what happened in the MP3market for the past ten years. People wanted Apple's legendary ease of use, etc over the random specs you keep talking about that people proved they were not interested in by buying the iPod instead.
    Last edited by nusome4; 01/07/2012 at 06:07 PM.
  8. #368  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mac.World View Post
    Too many assumptions in your post.
    1. An app written for a Galaxy Nexus on ICS, may not work for an older HTC/LG/whatever "insert model here" on Donut, Eclair or even Froyo, since it wasn't until Gingerbread that support for things like gyroscopes, VoiP and NFC was added. While this won't effect top of the line new models, the lower end phones using 2.2 or older OS are. And one model like the Nexus, does not mean another Android based phone will operate the same way, new or not, due to manufacturer UI overlays. This is a fragmentation and manufacturer issue that currently effects all Android based phones.

    2. You also assume that Apple is sitting still and not pushing forward with new products. Point of fact is, that besides Samsung selling a few more unit in one quarter that preceeded the iphone 4s, Apple outsells every manufacturer in the smartphone category. Now add in the fact that Apple just received permission to sell the iPhone 4s in China and you see why they are selling 30+ million iphones a quarter and why Apple takes home 52% of the smartphone profit pie.

    And by the way, Nokia sells way more phones than Apple, as does Samsung I believe, but those are not all smartphones. Most are older dumb phones and make nil for the manufacturer. Additionally, you have to factor in lawsuits in the future. Will Google sidestep Oracle and Apple and not have their distributor manufacturers have to pay lcensing fees to both companies, effectively decreasing profits even more, after Microsoft takes its chunk of $5 per unit?

    The future of Android is far from certain. It will be here with us for sure, but how will it look and at what cost to the manufacturers? This
    First of all, thank you for an intelligent response. I was amused by the odd crowd on yesterday, Here is the difference between you and them. Not your problem, but I know they are reading so they will enjoy this- the summary of their arguments. A small smattering of facts and mostly drivel :

    • You can predict the future (despite not making predictions)
    • You and others here know nothing (despite that person being one of the ones here)
    • You probably don't have a job (despite one citing his extensive credentials)
    • Your opinion doesn't matter (on an opinion driven forum)
    • You're just a webOS ...boy
    • You have violated to rules of forum posting (send me the book, please)


    (I was hoping to get the ultimate schoolyard insult:"Your Mama" before I logged out but I wasn't successful.)

    To your comments however let me respond, please read my comments carefully. Despite Apple partisans wigging out, I'm not says Apple is doomed or that Apple should close up shop. However, when there is another technology that begins to take market share it is always a threat.

    Very few keep a phone for more than a few years anyway. This is why they are all fighting to get people in the their respective "ecosystems". Once a person stays with a specific OS for a time, it is less likely that they will cross over into a new system. So if I have an iPhone 3, more than likely I will move into an iPhone 4 than a Blackberry or Windows phone.

    That is why it not JUST about profit, but it's also about percentage of market share.

    If a user can be lured into an HTC or LG Android based phone, what will they most likely do when they find out a feature doesn't work on their old phone? If I find out that Siri doesn't work on my iPhone 3, what is the chance that I will go to an Android phone in response? I just go and buy a new iPhone.

    That is part of the dilemma that I was posting about. If HTC or LG goes bankrupt, or pulls an HP and quits the business, where will those displaced users go? They will just make the remaining Android handset manufacturers stronger as they migrate to Motorola or Samsung.

    And it hard to imagine that the profit number stay the same as the unit sales change. As you correctly stated, the unit sales of most every maker includes lower profit margin smartphones. That skews the units to profits ratio in Apples favor. But as the product mix of those makers becomes more smartphone heavy, those percentages are bound to change.

    Also, is Apple the only maker selling into the Asian market? Hard to imagine all of the Asian maker taking that lying down. Especially if protectionist sentiments kick in, as all nations are prone to fall to especially in hard times.
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  9. #369  
    As I already said, how is Apple doing in the markets that they compete in? Apple does not sell cheap $299 computers, so how can you put them in the same category as HP that does sell a ton of cheap computers?

    In any other industry similar products are compared. BUt, in the PC world it's premium Apple versus all the generic, CHEAP PC makers.

    You know this, but you want to ignore it. Apple is an extremely successful company and they make a ton of money. They don't care how many of something they sell, they care about the profit margin they are making on each device they sell.
    Of course I know this. You can look through some of my posts to see that I acknowledge this several times so I really don't understand the reason for your post. You asked when a mediocre product did better than a excellent product (paraphrasing) and I answered it in earnest. Apple reinvented itself for the high end market after losing out in the low and mid range markets with a superior product. They did not start off in the high end market.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  10. #370  
    Android marketshare is made up of individual parts: HTC, Samsung, LG, Asus, Kyocera, Huawei, Motorola, T-Mobile, Sony, Verzo Kinzo, ZTE Libra and others. And that's just phones. Here is a tablet site: SlateDroid
    How many of those individual parts are doing well? Market share is nice, but when you divide it up between all the parts, how many beside maybe Samsung and Motorola are making any real money? At the end of the day, the goal is profit, whether that is through market share and flooding the market or through other means. It's profits that keep a product going. Webos and the Touchpad are good examples of what happens when you don't have either. 55% of the market and less than half the mobile profits. Maybe market share is not all it's cracked up to be. Something is very wrong with this picture.


    Is there proof of this claim? Seems there was some gnashing of the teeth over Splashtop remote on these very boards. I use that as an example because that is a high profile app. The link you previously posted about some obscure Norwegian gaming company with 10 games making a comment about Weobs users buying more games than Android users is not proof of this claim. Webos users have less choice so it could be Android users passed over this company because they have better options.


    It seems unlikely Google will go down without a fight. They have been acquiring patents left and right. Didn't Apple just lose a major patent case to Motorola?
    Yes, there is proof that Android app revenues are less than iOS app revenues despite Android's market share. This has been covered before. It's frustrating that you folks are in a tech forum talking tech issues but you don't keep up with tech news. I suggest you guys check out engadget.com, bgr.com, cnet.com, or the tech section at news.google.com. I read these every day. Here is a link:

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/...-prefer-iPhone

    I believe the gnashing of teeth over Splashtop was the fact that it was free in one of the Android markets and the webOS version was $10 (I believe the iOS version was also). How does that not prove my point? If the users are not willing to pay for an app when folks on other platforms are, how does that bode well for Android with developers?

    You are right in your statement that in Android's case, market share is meaningless because it doesn't translate to revenue for hardware makers (commodity items) or developers. However, you guys through market share and app counts around here like they mean something also. You can't have it both ways when those numbers don't go your favorite platform's way.

    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  11. #371  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    First of all, thank you for an intelligent response. I was amused by the odd crowd on yesterday, Here is the difference between you and them. Not your problem, but I know they are reading so they will enjoy this- the summary of their arguments. A small smattering of facts and mostly drivel :

    • You can predict the future (despite not making predictions)
    • You and others here know nothing (despite that person being one of the ones here)
    • You probably don't have a job (despite one citing his extensive credentials)
    • Your opinion doesn't matter (on an opinion driven forum)
    • You're just a webOS ...boy
    • You have violated to rules of forum posting (send me the book, please)


    (I was hoping to get the ultimate schoolyard insult:"Your Mama" before I logged out but I wasn't successful.)

    To your comments however let me respond, please read my comments carefully. Despite Apple partisans wigging out, I'm not says Apple is doomed or that Apple should close up shop. However, when there is another technology that begins to take market share it is always a threat.

    Very few keep a phone for more than a few years anyway. This is why they are all fighting to get people in the their respective "ecosystems". Once a person stays with a specific OS for a time, it is less likely that they will cross over into a new system. So if I have an iPhone 3, more than likely I will move into an iPhone 4 than a Blackberry or Windows phone.

    That is why it not JUST about profit, but it's also about percentage of market share.

    If a user can be lured into an HTC or LG Android based phone, what will they most likely do when they find out a feature doesn't work on their old phone? If I find out that Siri doesn't work on my iPhone 3, what is the chance that I will go to an Android phone in response? I just go and buy a new iPhone.

    That is part of the dilemma that I was posting about. If HTC or LG goes bankrupt, or pulls an HP and quits the business, where will those displaced users go? They will just make the remaining Android handset manufacturers stronger as they migrate to Motorola or Samsung.

    And it hard to imagine that the profit number stay the same as the unit sales change. As you correctly stated, the unit sales of most every maker includes lower profit margin smartphones. That skews the units to profits ratio in Apples favor. But as the product mix of those makers becomes more smartphone heavy, those percentages are bound to change.

    Also, is Apple the only maker selling into the Asian market? Hard to imagine all of the Asian maker taking that lying down. Especially if protectionist sentiments kick in, as all nations are prone to fall to especially in hard times.
    And you *don't* think you're in the business of making predictions? LOL
  12. #372  
    The only problem with your stat is that you don't give any basis. 50% over all history, over the last 5 years or over the last 6 months. And more importantly, what are the projections going forward? We all know Apple has been a beast in the past, but will they continue to dominate? Problem is when you let the competition get an edge on you in any way, it puts them in striking distance.

    The problem with your Ferrari analogy is that I have no beef with their cars, but I'd rather own the Toyota corporation than Ferrari. At the end of the year I'd rather make $25 per hour and work 40 hours a week than make $50 an hour and work 10 hours a week.



    Apple has to get the TV thing right before we can have the conversation about it being a commodity product. No guarantees that they will.

    But the phone sales numbers are starting to change. That is a fact. And I have no preference for either company. I wanted to see Palm be a player... but that isn't happening

    Remember, the early arguments were "Apple sells way more phones than anyone else"

    Now it's "Apple makes more money than any one else".

    Next it will be "Apple makes more money [I]per phone than anyone else".

    Finally it will be, "Apple only sells to discriminating consumers"

    C

    [I]PS - I can guarantee you that corporations worry about BOTH - money and who sells the most in their industry.
    The last have of this post was excellent! These guys keep moving the goal post. It's ridiculous.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
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    #373  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    Yes, there is proof that Android app revenues are less than iOS app revenues despite Android's market share.
    I read that article and came away with a different outcome. Yes, IOS apps make more money but the reason wasn't from number of apps sold, it was the time and effort that devs have to put into an Android app so that it can work across all screens, processors, and different types of Android(fragmentation of the OS itself, with different flavors). It's just much easier to build for IOS because you only have to worry about it running great on a few devices, unlike the litany of different devices with Android. What makes Android great, great selection of phones to fit everybody, is also what causes it's hard ache for devs.
  14. #374  
    The goal post is that Apple is doing very well with iOS and the iPad but WebOS and the Touchpad flopped.
  15. #375  
    Then why separate HP's PC market share from Windows market share?
    I separated HP's PC market for two reasons.

    1) Even if you only count HP's PC market share, they still eclipse Apple's PC market share by a whole lot. If I would have just stuck with PC market share in general, I would have gotten a response that it was shared among multiple companies. Making it look like Apple is in a better position if you divided it out. However, Apple is not even in the top 4 unless you count iPad sales which seem to get counted as PC when it suits Apple or as mobile devices when it suits Apple.

    2) The TouchPad is made by HP so I figured the group would be interested in HP's numbers.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  16. #376  
    Windows Mobile peaked at 42% market share in 2007. It had success before the iPhone appeared and made it look creaky and old. Just like webOS, the WM revamp has no chance against the iOS/Android juggernaut, and it'll likely command no more than 5% of the market. Unlike webOS, Microsoft will never give up on it.
    Your last sentence is so true. This is why I can't stand HP right now.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  17. #377  
    If the last couple years are any indication of you, or most of the forum's, grasp on predicting the future of mobile electronics, I'm pretty sure none of your projections will come to pass. Some people particularly have a pretty poor record of predicting Apple's, or the iPhone's demise.

    I am sure the future will look different. I am equally sure no one here knows what that will be.
    I've been tracking the mobile industry for 20 years. I think CGK said it best when he said that these thing go in cycles. Who is on top today doesn't necessarily translate to tomorrow. Too many have held the top spot only to see it whittle away by a better or more committed player. The top spot in the smartphone industry is like the front runner for the GOP Presidential race.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  18. #378  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    I separated HP's PC market for two reasons.

    1) Even if you only count HP's PC market share, they still eclipse Apple's PC market share by a whole lot. If I would have just stuck with PC market share in general, I would have gotten a response that it was shared among multiple companies. Making it look like Apple is in a better position if you divided it out. However, Apple is not even in the top 4 unless you count iPad sales which seem to get counted as PC when it suits Apple or as mobile devices when it suits Apple.

    2) The TouchPad is made by HP so I figured the group would be interested in HP's numbers.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
    But with HP, their Touchpad numbers add nothing to their sales figures. It makes HPs numbers look better if you don't include tablets. You do include Netbooks?

    If HP is such a popular brand, why didn't HP owners buy the Touchpad?

    Many more iPads are sold than Macbooks and iMacs, so PC owners must be buying them as well.
  19. #379  
    But with HP, their Touchpad numbers add nothing to their sales figures. It makes HPs numbers look better if you don't include tablets. You do include Netbooks?

    If HP is such a popular brand, why didn't HP owners buy the Touchpad?

    Many more iPads are sold than Macbooks and iMacs, so PC owners must be buying them as well.

    How did you segue my post into what you posted? You are all over the map. First, the numbers did not come from me personally. I posted a link on 2010 PC sales figures compiled by industry analysts. I'm not sure if netbooks were included but I assume they were. The TouchPad wasn't even around in 2010. Second, I don't know why HP did not use its leverage in the PC market to sell the TouchPad. That has been a mystery to me. I know of at least two people who tracked the TouchPad before it was released and bought a TouchPad because it was made by HP. One of them moved on to Android after HP killed the product. Last, iPads outselling Macbooks is not that much of a feat.


    ---Sent from my HP TouchPad using Communities (a great webOS app!)
  20. #380  
    Well hell, if iOS is so perfect why do my apps crash constantly on my iPhone. There are serious issues with Apple's implementation of pseudo-multitasking. Now my iDevice is obsolete due to booleans in a config file, not due to improved hardware. Not interested in jailbreaking my iphone, the phone is unstable enough and I need to rely on this device in an emergency.
    laserboy likes this.

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