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  1. #21  
  2. #22  
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by ka1 View Post
    I am also curious about that. The $200 million is an actual number. So that is 1million fire sale devices sold, or a third that number at full price, or some combo in between.

    Maybe that also includes software?

    My guess is alot of the sales were direct from HP, or through some channel not included in the report, who seems to be gathering their data from retailers.
    ok, the study is based on US retail. So non-US sales wouldn't count, and I'm guessing ones from the HP store, and direct channels, don't count either.

    So that explains some of the disconnect.

    And what was the firesale price? My math above was $200, but many were sold at lower prices, right? So that means more than a million total.
    KA1
    Visor Deluxe->Visor Prism/Digital Link->Treo 650->Treo 700p->Pre->GSM Unlocked Pre 2 (wifi only)->FrankenPre + Touchpad 32 ->+ Touchpad 4G ATT + ATT Pre3 + 64 White Touchpad... bliss.
  4. #24  
    <<threads merged>>
  5. #25  
    must be more than 200k sold. its hard to believe that firesale generated $25 mill (200k X $125) and Veer generated $175 mill income.
  6. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by vanadium View Post
    Two data sources:

    1. Shipment numbers for 3Q11 from Digitimes (which were estimates being posed as hard numbers if you see the graph): Digitimes Research: Global tablet PC shipments reach 18.7 million units)

    2. The 4.5-4.7% 3Q11 market share estimates from IDC I linked to above.

    Some people were using fuzzy math and cherry-picking between the two sources, despite the fact shipment numbers have nothing to do with actual sales, to get that magic 1,000,000 estimate in sales. And then, of course, people took those numbers and ran with it.

    It was only a matter of time before real, concrete numbers surfaced and threw a bucket of cold water on those that vigorously defended their speculation.
    I know that the numbers that were being qouted (800,000-900,000) were from the same sources that were saying the TouchPad was a dud at BestBuy. Those same sources stated that BestBuy was still sitting on over 200,000 of their original shipment before the fire sale and that BestBuy had only sold 25,000 TouchPads to that date. We know from actual reports from folks trying to get a TouchPad at BestBuy that BestBuy sold out of it's stock the day after they initiated the fire sale. If the original sources were correct, BestBuy sold at least 225,000 alone. With OfficeDepot and others selling out at the same time, it was not hard to imagine that close to 1 million were sold. So those numbers can be used to cast the TouchPad in the negative, but can't be used for the positive?

    Here is the deal. All reports on the TouchPad and webOS that have not been verified from HP have not been completely true, plain and simple. It seems to me that naysayers are trying to have it both ways. They will use a negative story with fabricated numbers (the BestBuy story) to prove that the TouchPad is a dud, but when something good comes out of it (clearing all of the fabricated stock) all of a sudden that story doesn't hold water. I'm sick of all the bickering, especially in this forum about the numbers.

    BTW, who cares that it took the fire sale to become number 2? Yes, HP lost money, but they made it to number 2, which is what they were trying to do. They beat out the Galaxy Tab, which should put egg on a bunch of your faces because if that thing was so great, why haven't they sold? The Galaxy Tab has definitely been on the market longer. They also beat out all of the other Android tablets. That seems to be a hard pill for most of you to swallow seeing how you like to promote Android here all the time, yet tablets made specifically with Android on them (Galaxy Tab, Xoom, Transformer) have sold like crap. Now Amazon has to offer their tablet at a loss, just like HP did to even get traction.

    I'm not defending HP's actions on this. To me this whole thing wreaks of imcompetance. I'm not defending iPad sales either. I've had my say about that. I'm just saying that all of you that seem to use these stories as the whole truth and nothing but the truth when it suits your negativity about the TouchPad or webOS shouldn't be reneging on your comments now. You can't have it both ways.
    Vistaus and Loiter like this.
  7. #27  
    I said it before, 200k units is laughable.
    You through around some forecasted number and then call it concrete.
    Think about it dude, you got to be smarter than that.

    Even if the numbers used were shipped numbers to derive the 1,000,000 unit number, let me get what you are thinking straight so I can call you out for your foolishness:

    HP had 1 million units
    Had a firesale to clear their inventory
    And decided to sell only 20% of their inventory
    When the entire world was looking for the hottest tech item at the moment
    They decided just to keep 80% of their remaining inventory so that they could have 800,000 units to toss in a landfill?

    Think about it.
    k4ever likes this.
  8. ak1229's Avatar
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    #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by LizardWiz View Post
    I said it before, 200k units is laughable.
    You through around some forecasted number and then call it concrete.
    Think about it dude, you got to be smarter than that.

    Even if the numbers used were shipped numbers to derive the 1,000,000 unit number, let me get what you are thinking straight so I can call you out for your foolishness:

    HP had 1 million units
    Had a firesale to clear their inventory
    And decided to sell only 20% of their inventory
    When the entire world was looking for the hottest tech item at the moment
    They decided just to keep 80% of their remaining inventory so that they could have 800,000 units to toss in a landfill?

    Think about it.
    Lazard that is exactly what I said in the other post. 800,000 units still in channel and they already write down their business?

    That does not happen. I know my accounting and I can tell you for certain, companies write down and estimate a value for these write downs only after they are certain and the bad debts are realized.

    If 80% of their manufactured units were possible sales returns, they would not write down webos this quarter.

    Plus NPD evaluates retailers and distributors. HP sold most f their units through their website during their fire sale and again during the employee purchase program and developer program.

    NPD is not HP and unless HP comes out and says that they sold 204,000 NPD's report is also a speculation!
    k4ever likes this.
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by 74sickness View Post
    its cause of the firesale if it wasent for the firesale we would be like last.
    Agree the firesale got people out buying a tablet that never would have otherwise.
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by ka1 View Post
    ok, the study is based on US retail. So non-US sales wouldn't count, and I'm guessing ones from the HP store, and direct channels, don't count either.

    So that explains some of the disconnect.

    And what was the firesale price? My math above was $200, but many were sold at lower prices, right? So that means more than a million total.
    The 16GB sold for $499 originally and $99 during the fire sale. You can get one now on Amazon for around $200. The 32GB sold for $599 originally and $150 during the fire sale. You can get one now on Amazon for $250.

    If HP made $200 million on TouchPad sales, and they discounted everyone down to the fire sale prices, it's not hard to image that close to 1 million were sold. Unless, of course, they made a large amount of that money off the sale of apps and services. Let's see, if HP only sold 204,000 (according to this story) at an average cost of $125 a unit (100 + 150 / 2), that's $25.5 million ($25,500,000) in profit. That leaves a deficit of $174.5 million ($174,500,000). The only other profit driver for the TouchPad is the app catalog, so did HP make $174.5 million from app sales alone? Doesn't seem right to me, since I was told by the naysayers that HP couldn't possibly turn a huge profit off of apps sales alone.

    BTW, the $200 million in sales was from HP's own report yesterday, just in case some of you naysayers think that number was inflated.
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    The 16GB sold for $499 originally and $99 during the fire sale. You can get one now on Amazon for around $200. The 32GB sold for $599 originally and $150 during the fire sale. You can get one now on Amazon for $250.

    If HP made $200 million on TouchPad sales, and they discounted everyone down to the fire sale prices, it's not hard to image that close to 1 million were sold. Unless, of course, they made a large amount of that money off the sale of apps and services. Let's see, if HP only sold 204,000 (according to this story) at an average cost of $125 a unit (100 + 150 / 2), that's $25.5 million ($25,500,000) in profit. That leaves a deficit of $174.5 million ($174,500,000). The only other profit driver for the TouchPad is the app catalog, so did HP make $174.5 million from app sales alone? Doesn't seem right to me, since I was told by the naysayers that HP couldn't possibly turn a huge profit off of apps sales alone.

    BTW, the $200 million in sales was from HP's own report yesterday, just in case some of you naysayers think that number was inflated.
    $200 millions as sales income or profit?

    I am pointing this as you mentioned it as sales but you treated it in your calculation as profit.
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by CvvB View Post
    $200 millions as sales income or profit?

    I am pointing this as you mentioned it as sales but you treated it in your calculation as profit.
    My bad. $200 million in sales income.

    Edit: Wait, look again. I did say $200 million in sales in the first sentence of the second and third paragraphs. The only mention of profit was on speculation on app sales (which I don't believe).
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by vanadium View Post
    Those numbers were based on a forecast of Q3 sales, not hard numbers at all: Winter for webOS, winter for Droid, but springtime for iPad! • Channel Register

    Maybe people will finally stop throwing around inflated numbers they can't source.
    What exactly are you counting? USA or total sales? 'Cause the total number of sales is way higher than 204000. In Germany alone about 75000 people bought a TP. Here in The Netherlands, people imported the TP. Like me for example. Are you counting all of that or just USA-sales?
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post

    BTW, who cares that it took the fire sale to become number 2? Yes, HP lost money, but they made it to number 2, which is what they were trying to do. They beat out the Galaxy Tab, which should put egg on a bunch of your faces because if that thing was so great, why haven't they sold? The Galaxy Tab has definitely been on the market longer. They also beat out all of the other Android tablets. That seems to be a hard pill for most of you to swallow seeing how you like to promote Android here all the time, yet tablets made specifically with Android on them (Galaxy Tab, Xoom, Transformer) have sold like crap. Now Amazon has to offer their tablet at a loss, just like HP did to even get traction.
    Well, that's certainly one way of looking at it.

    Another way of looking at it is HP barely managed to outsell the Galaxy Tab despite being over 4x cheaper.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    My bad. $200 million in sales income.

    Edit: Wait, look again. I did say $200 million in sales in the first sentence of the second and third paragraphs. The only mention of profit was on speculation on app sales (which I don't believe).
    Good, then. As the cost for one unit is near $300 as I can remember.

    If we assume that all of this income came as an originally priced TouchPad and assume that half of the sold were 16GB and the other is the 32GB, then, you will have 200,000,000 / $550 ~ 363k

    Which is more than what site has stated. Now, I have assumed the most worst case in terms of yield. If you take that number and divide it by a much lower average price per piece as a firesale, then, you would get a much higher figure.
  16. CHIP72's Avatar
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    #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by jrstinkfish View Post
    Yikes, I knew it'd be under 500,000, that all the claims of "millions of new webOS owners" were wrong, but 204,000 even after a $99 firesale?

    Still, I think non-iOS tablet sales will pick up in the coming year. They'll never reach iPad levels, but if they're priced properly, they'll sell. But when I saw the new Asus Transformer Prime starts at $500, I had to shake my head. They just don't get it, so I may be wrong on this one.
    I personally believe ASUS DOES get it because they are doing something to differentiate their tablets from the competition at the high-end of the tablet market - they are offering a detachable keyboard dock that can convert the play-focused tablet into a work/play netbook (with the Transformer and forthcoming Transformer Prime; they also have the keyboard-attached Slider). Amazon and Barnes & Noble get it because they realize most people don't want to spend $500 on what is primarily a play device and are pricing their tablets at impulse or near-impulse buy levels. The companies that DON'T get it are the companies that are putting out tablets that cost $500, are purely relying on specs to compete with the iPad, and aren't doing anything significant that differentiates their product from the iPad. Why should most people buy a $500 tablet that has many fewer desirable apps than the iPad if that tablet doesn't have something to differentiate it? Heck, why should people spend $500 on a tablet when a $200 tablet does almost as many things that people want to do on a tablet and it costs only 40% as much?

    The one thing the HP TouchPad fire sale proved is there is a strong demand for tablets, but most of that demand is for tablets priced $200 and lower.
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by CHIP72 View Post
    The one thing the HP TouchPad fire sale proved is there is a strong demand for tablets, but most of that demand is for tablets priced $200 and lower.
    I would really put it this way: Tablets are niche market. In terms that they cost money to be made perfect and less people are willing to pay that amount of money. However, if you offer any product that is niche-status by a lower price you will have a huge demand.

    C'mon ... Let's face it, if you want some good tablet with good specs to have near fluid-like experience, you have to shell-out the greens, else you can use lower end devices which can be a bit frustrating if you set your hopes so high.
    Vistaus likes this.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by CHIP72 View Post
    I personally believe ASUS DOES get it because they are doing something to differentiate their tablets from the competition at the high-end of the tablet market - they are offering a detachable keyboard dock that can convert the play-focused tablet into a work/play netbook (with the Transformer and forthcoming Transformer Prime; they also have the keyboard-attached Slider). Amazon and Barnes & Noble get it because they realize most people don't want to spend $500 on what is primarily a play device and are pricing their tablets at impulse or near-impulse buy levels. The companies that DON'T get it are the companies that are putting out tablets that cost $500, are purely relying on specs to compete with the iPad, and aren't doing anything significant that differentiates their product from the iPad. Why should most people buy a $500 tablet that has many fewer desirable apps than the iPad if that tablet doesn't have something to differentiate it? Heck, why should people spend $500 on a tablet when a $200 tablet does almost as many things that people want to do on a tablet and it costs only 40% as much?

    The one thing the HP TouchPad fire sale proved is there is a strong demand for tablets, but most of that demand is for tablets priced $200 and lower.
    The cards metafore is the big differentiating here. So yeah, HP does have skmething to differentiate with.
    And you're theory about not enough 200 costing tablets is not exactly true. If that were true, then why are most Android-tablets from Archos priced between 100-400?
  19. #39  
    Since I have my handy dandy calculator out, I will put to rest some of the misconceptions and numbers that the naysayers in the forum seem spout. The only true number we know of so far is the $200 million in sales on the TouchPad. Let's do the math:

    Option A. HP only sells 204,000 TouchPads. Using only unit sales as a driver for this, $200 million divided by 204,000 equals $980 average cost per unit. So you are telling me that HP sold all of their TouchPads at over close to $1000 per unit? No way!

    Option B. HP sales 1 million TouchPads. $200 million divided by 1 million equals $200 average cost per unit. Sounds about right. Oh wait: "The TouchPad is so crappy that no one would pay more than the fire sale price for it!"

    Option C. HP sales 1 million TouchPads at the fire sale price. Average cost per unit was about $125. So $125 times 1 million equals $125 million. Close to $200 million and plausible, but you have to account for the other $75 million. Maybe it was in app sales? Let's see $75 million divided by 1 million devices equals a profit (since apps don't usually sale at a "loss") of about $75 per TouchPad for HP. Since HP's share is probably less than a third of actual app sales the only way for that to work is if the total sales for apps was about $225 million or $225 per TouchPad. I definitely don't believe that and I know the naysayers don't because: "HP can't make a size able profit on app and service sales"

    Option D. HP sold more than 1 million TouchPads. Makes sense but....

    See where I'm going here? The basic math does not add up for your negativity about the TouchPad. Maybe one of you naysayers can tell us how HP only sold 204,000 TouchPads yet made $200 million in sales? That would be interesting.
    stumblinh likes this.
  20. #40  
    To add to my previous posts: I bought the TP for 296 and I don't regret at all.

    k4ever +100 Well said.
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