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  1. samab's Avatar
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    #81  
    Quote Originally Posted by SandraW View Post
    HP probably has around 800,000 to a million Touchpads at the most.(including the new batch of Touchpads that are yet to be assembled)

    Even at 1 million units, Touchpads/WebOS can't possibly compete with Apple or Google.
    Even at 1 million units, Xoom and Playbook would still beat TouchPad in sales. They just haven't released their quarterly sales numbers yet. All it means is RIM sold 1/2 million Playbook in April 17-May 31 --- what about June, July and August?
  2. #82  
    Quote Originally Posted by laoh View Post
    HP will never make up for each $200 loss from a Touchpad. Let's just give up on that idea. But since they are establishing user base now, the money is in future products... wherever webOS may be then. If/when they are released, there will be an established user base that'll more readily accept the new webOS devices... as long as it doesn't take another 2 years for this to happen. Release the solid webOS product in the next 9 months and there's a chance. If they are smart enough to take advantage of this wave they created however unintentional. They just have to do it before the wave dies.
    The problem with expecting this current user base to pony up $400 for another webOS tablet in the near future is that they already have a webOS tablet they just spent $99 on. The people who didn't get one don't want as $400 webOS tablet, they wanted one for $99.

    I guarantee you that any reputable manufacturer that decides to take on webOS, pay HP a licensing fee, and then stick webOS into a quality tablet that is priced to make a profit will take the same bath HP just took. HP can't talk to potential licensees and say, "Hey, look at all the tablets we sold, you can do the same!" because no one in their right mind is going to put out tablet with those specs for $99 retail. I don't think that was HP's plan -- I think this was a desperate move to get out of a tablet biz and nothing more.
  3. #83  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    But it's not short term loss --- when Microsoft just paid a few billion dollars to Nokia and is really giving a lot of money to bring developers on board.

    Ballmer made a decision to take a long term bet and Gates agreed on it. Wall Street can't stop them.

    HP CEO is a salaryman and the HP board of directors are all salarymen. There is no single big shareholder at HP. They do have to listen to their shareholders (the mutual fund people).
    plus microsoft isn't fitting the cost of making and supporting all wp7 hardware. And they have like $40 billion in cash cushion sitting around.
    You come at the king. You best not miss.
  4. #84  
    Quote Originally Posted by jrstinkfish View Post
    The problem with expecting this current user base to pony up $400 for another webOS tablet in the near future is that they already have a webOS tablet they just spent $99 on. The people who didn't get one don't want as $400 webOS tablet, they wanted one for $99.
    Not exactly, people didn't want to:

    1) Pay iPad prices for a device without iPad equivalent functionality or
    2) Would not pay $500 to $600 for ANY tablet.

    The only way for anyone to break into any market is by offering either a better value proposition or a product so much better that it blows away the competition. Nobody in the short term is going to create a product massively better than an iPad if for no other reason that the app count and the choke hold their volume gives them on supply chain pricing.

    HP (as many of the Android wannabes) pretended that could go toe to toe on features. That was a mistake. Note that not even the Galaxy Tab (probably the second best selling tablet) sells in numbers anywhere near those of the iPad.

    What will sell is a decent product at an attractive price. There is no shame in that. Many of the current electronics manufacturers built their base by offering the "not quite the best" stuff, but at a good value point. Same with the Asian car manufacturers, now they dominate in most markets.

    HP is uniquely in a position because of owning the entire process (software and hardware) to tale the short term hit for a long term future. The comment I've heard most from new Touchpad owners is "hey, this isn't as bad as I heard it was". With that word of mouth, you don't think if they build a better product for the 2012 sales cycle, they won't be able to sell any of them? It would still need to be a better value than an iPad, but that will be true for the next 3 or so years build traction.

    If HP is too stupid to figure out how to build a business model that will let them squeak by or get modest profits until they can build a bigger base, I can guarantee you that someone looking at the runaway success of the Touchpad sale will. (Amazon, Samsung, RIM if they get desperate enough)

    Having control of the whole pie is probably the only way to make this work. That is only three companies (if I'm missing anything, someone please correct me):
    Apple - who doen't need to do anything like this.
    RIM- who need to but they are still in denial about where they are heading.
    HP - who may not be smart enough to take advantage of their position.
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  5. #85  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    Even at 1 million units, Xoom and Playbook would still beat TouchPad in sales. They just haven't released their quarterly sales numbers yet. All it means is RIM sold 1/2 million Playbook in April 17-May 31 --- what about June, July and August?
    SOLD... to end users or to retail partners. Big difference.

    C
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  6. #86  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    The comment I've heard most from new Touchpad owners is "hey, this isn't as bad as I heard it was". With that word of mouth, you don't think if they build a better product for the 2012 sales cycle, they won't be able to sell any of them?
    The product they built reportedly cost them $300 to make, and that's not including advertising, staffing, and other miscellaneous costs. For them to build one that's better -- say, an IPS screen, microSD slot, thinner and lighter, faster processor -- it will undoubtedly cost them more than $300. People were unwilling to buy the TouchPad at the price HP felt gave them a good profit. They were willing to buy it at a no-risk price of $99. So no, I don't think people will suddenly want to buy a non-iOS device that isn't an Android for anything less than $300 just because they know someone who knows someone who knows someone who has a TouchPad and likes it. Public perception is that webOS belongs on a $99 tablet. This is probably one reason Android is keeping Honeycomb from being open-source, so it doesn't show up on those chintzy resistive-screen tablets you find at Walgreens.

    I work in an office full of tech-savvy people in the technology department of a bank. Only one person has mentioned the TouchPad (earlier today actually, when she was asking me about a cheap tablet to buy her daughter), and she actually called it, "That tablet that's $99," no mention of HP, TouchPad, or webOS.

    I just don't think in a few months that it's going to be the big deal that it is today. By 2012, I think webOS will be a curiosity, nothing more. People were enamored with a $400 price drop, but they will move on when it becomes clear they own an orphan. Maybe they won't get the latest Angry Birds seasonal-themed update. Maybe they'll get sick of their Android and iOS friends asking for their Words with Friends name.

    Of course, this is all speculation just like everyone else's opinion on the matter. I'm just not certain the momentum will carry over to 2012, which is probably the earliest any manufacturer (besides HP) could start churning out new webOS tablets.
  7. samab's Avatar
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    #87  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    SOLD... to end users or to retail partners. Big difference.

    C
    Or sold to ebayers or to end-users who is actively looking for a way to put Android on it.
  8. #88  
    Quote Originally Posted by jrstinkfish View Post
    The product they built reportedly cost them $300 to make, and that's not including advertising, staffing, and other miscellaneous costs. For them to build one that's better -- say, an IPS screen, microSD slot, thinner and lighter, faster processor -- it will undoubtedly cost them more than $300. People were unwilling to buy the TouchPad at the price HP felt gave them a good profit. They were willing to buy it at a no-risk price of $99. So no, I don't think people will suddenly want to buy a non-iOS device that isn't an Android for anything less than $300 just because they know someone who knows someone who knows someone who has a TouchPad and likes it. Public perception is that webOS belongs on a $99 tablet. This is probably one reason Android is keeping Honeycomb from being open-source, so it doesn't show up on those chintzy resistive-screen tablets you find at Walgreens.

    I work in an office full of tech-savvy people in the technology department of a bank. Only one person has mentioned the TouchPad (earlier today actually, when she was asking me about a cheap tablet to buy her daughter), and she actually called it, "That tablet that's $99," no mention of HP, TouchPad, or webOS.


    Of course, this is all speculation just like everyone else's opinion on the matter. I'm just not certain the momentum will carry over to 2012, which is probably the earliest any manufacturer (besides HP) could start churning out new webOS tablets.
    What that means is that people don't initially care as much about the OS as us geeks do. Most people will call every tablet Android or Apple because that is want they see in the media. The big problem for webOS is a lack of apps, which kills consumer interest, which kills developer interest, which (of course) kills apps. They only way to break that cycle is to force feed the public your systems until you achieve a critical mass.

    If one can sell a $2.00 app to 2 million Touchpad users, there will be some who will see that a chance worth taking. Going through the trouble for 40K users, not so much.

    By the way, Amazon and e-bay are selling tablets briskly at $250 for 16gb model. So the $99 price reflects the knee-jerk panic of HP more than the public's actual perception of value. If they lose $50.00 per tablet, that can afford to move and sell more than they are moving now... and can more easily develop a model to recoup that level of loss.

    (for example, take that deal with box.net, make themselves the middleman and offer 50gb storage per $25 per year... they want to be a software service company, right? Just picked up half of the $50 right there)

    They won't make it up in volume (LOL) or in app sales at a dollar a pop. They will get some back in accessories, but the object at this stage has got to be to build a base. Without that nothing else matters.
    Last edited by C-Note; 08/31/2011 at 03:18 PM.
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  9. samab's Avatar
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    #89  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    If HP is too stupid to figure out how to build a business model that will let them squeak by or get modest profits until they can build a bigger base, I can guarantee you that someone looking at the runaway success of the Touchpad sale will. (Amazon, Samsung, RIM if they get desperate enough)[/INDENT]
    There is a business model --- but HP can't operate that business model without a large founder with a large shareholding to backstop any massive losses for the next 3-4 years.

    Google decides to make it a long war of attrition --- what can Wall Street do? Nothing. The 2 Google founders have 57% of voting power.

    Microsoft decides to make it a long war of attrition --- what can Wall Street do? Nothing. Ballmer will never get fired because he has the support of Bill Gates.

    Samsung can --- and that's NOT a good thing. Giant Korean companies --- like giant Japanese companies --- have cross shareholdings that hurts shareholders. And their government actively tries to limit foreigners into their domestic market. Blackberries weren't even allowed in Korea until a couple of years ago.

    RIM has the co-CEO's as the largest shareholders and they have skin in the game. They ain't going down without a long fight.

    Life isn't fair --- this is not a fair fight. You have 4 mobile platforms --- all controlled by their founders and none are blinking. Normal people don't want to get into this MAD mutual assured destruction kind of mexican standoff.
  10. samab's Avatar
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    #90  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    If one can sell a $2.00 app to 2 million Touchpad users, there will be some who will see that a chance worth taking. Going through the trouble for 40K users, not so much.
    There are more than 2 million webos users around with their pre phones.
  11. #91  
    If they did it would be a stupid move costing them money. They should fire leo anyways he lost 20% of the stock...

    -Toaster
  12. #92  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    Or sold to ebayers or to end-users who is actively looking for a way to put Android on it.
    Seriously, how many people are actually going to do this? Geeks maybe, but why would one take what DroidBoys consider to be inferior hardware just to run an less than optimized OS on it... probably not even the best version of their platform.

    Right now they can get a decent OS on it with no problem. No rooting, no jailbreaking, and harder to brick, most users will be happy to keep the native OS as most just web browse, e-mail, look at videos, and maybe some light word processing.
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  13. #93  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    There are more than 2 million webos users around with their pre phones.
    Not anymore. But that is the point. If you have momentum you can't wait until the "coming months" to follow up with your next move... as we around here know TOO well.

    Pre plus
    HP purchase
    "Think Beyond"
    Pre 2
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    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
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    #94  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    Right now they can get a decent OS on it with no problem. No rooting, no jailbreaking, and harder to brick, most users will be happy to keep the native OS as most just web browse, e-mail, look at videos, and maybe some light word processing.
    We still need to patch just to get decent audio volume and overclocking to get decent performance. That's not for everyone either.

    4 mobile platforms --- all controlled by their founders --- all are capable of making irrational business decisions that can't be stopped by Wall Street.

    Rational people don't want to get into this mess.

    Mob lawyers don't get wacked (as Godfather said it best: it's business, not personal). Divorce lawyers have the highest rate of being attacked by crazy irrational people in the middle of a divorce proceeding.

    HP is smart enough not to get into the middle of this mess with a bunch of crazy irrational billionaires.
  15. #95  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    There is a business model --- but HP can't operate that business model without a large founder with a large shareholding to backstop any massive losses for the next 3-4 years.

    Google decides to make it a long war of attrition --- what can Wall Street do? Nothing. The 2 Google founders have 57% of voting power.

    Microsoft decides to make it a long war of attrition --- what can Wall Street do? Nothing. Ballmer will never get fired because he has the support of Bill Gates.

    Samsung can --- and that's NOT a good thing. Giant Korean companies --- like giant Japanese companies --- have cross shareholdings that hurts shareholders. And their government actively tries to limit foreigners into their domestic market. Blackberries weren't even allowed in Korea until a couple of years ago.

    RIM has the co-CEO's as the largest shareholders and they have skin in the game. They ain't going down without a long fight.

    I don't disagree in the case of HP, they are getting out of the consumer business altogether, so they may be stupid, but they are consistent.

    Stupid in that they have a very marketable product, publicly took a dump on it and decreased it's potential value. Kind of like having a pickup truck, deciding that a convertible is more to your liking, and then not even checking the oil in the truck while you wait for it to sell.

    Stupid in not have the software/ services model in place before you cripple the potential of the business which is a large part of your profits currently.

    And stupid in expecting to jump into the market with a decent but clearly less than top notch product and expecting to make Apple-esque profit margins, without paying your dues first.

    And I don't think a long term plan is a bad thing. It clearly doesn't fly in the West where everything is based on how much we can make in the next quarter. Wonder why the Asian companies are so dominant and the the American companies which are the darlings of the tech world (Apple, Google) operate in the the same (long term) way.
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
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    #96  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    And I don't think a long term plan is a bad thing. It clearly doesn't fly in the West where everything is based on how much we can make in the next quarter. Wonder why the Asian companies are so dominant and the the American companies which are the darlings of the tech world (Apple, Google) operate in the the same (long term) way.
    The grass is NOT greener on the other side.

    SK Telecom --- South Korea's largest mobile carrier --- owns 50% of the Korean market.

    NTT DoCoMO --- Japan's largest mobile carrier --- owns 50% of the Japanese market (and the Japanese government is the largest shareholder).

    Ordinary South Korean and Japanese consumers are screwed by their nationalist governments trying to promote their products overseas.

    Apple and Google are also viewed by many as big monopolistic giants that are bad for consumers. Google has more anti-trust lawsuits now than Microsoft ever did. I don't want them either.
  17. #97  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    The grass is NOT greener on the other side.

    SK Telecom --- South Korea's largest mobile carrier --- owns 50% of the Korean market.

    NTT DoCoMO --- Japan's largest mobile carrier --- owns 50% of the Japanese market (and the Japanese government is the largest shareholder).

    Ordinary South Korean and Japanese consumers are screwed by their nationalist governments trying to promote their products overseas.

    Apple and Google are also viewed by many as big monopolistic giants that are bad for consumers. Google has more anti-trust lawsuits now than Microsoft ever did. I don't want them either.
    But is all of the above because of taking the long term view or the long term view made possible because of government interference? Sounds like the drug companies in the US. or some might argue "free trade and off-shoring" But mine is not a political discussion, I'd just like to see HP (and a lot of companies) not be so short sighted.

    In a few years Verizon/Apple may own 50% of the market for smartphones, or Verizon/Google. How is that any better than having an HP and RIM there to keep the market somewhat more honest?
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
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    #98  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    But is all of the above because of taking the long term view or the long term view made possible because of government interference? Sounds like the drug companies in the US. or some might argue "free trade and off-shoring" But mine is not a political discussion, I'd just like to see HP (and a lot of companies) not be so short sighted.

    In a few years Verizon/Apple may own 50% of the market for smartphones, or Verizon/Google. How is that any better than having an HP and RIM there to keep the market somewhat more honest?
    Asian companies can take a long term view --- not because of government interference --- but because of their cross-shareholding structure. Shareholders don't have a say in anything and that's a bad thing in the long term. South Korean companies will one day face the same problems as the Japanese companies.

    The US government is blocking AT&T/T-Mobile --- which if combined would only have 42-43% of the US market share. The big red Verizon only has something like 32% of the US market share right now.

    And in this fight --- it's not just long term, it's super long term with a bunch of crazy irrational billionaires who would LITERALLY throw a chair at you. There is a lot of crazies in this bunch of people.
  19. #99  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    We still need to patch just to get decent audio volume and overclocking to get decent performance. That's not for everyone either.

    4 mobile platforms --- all controlled by their founders --- all are capable of making irrational business decisions that can't be stopped by Wall Street.

    Rational people don't want to get into this mess.
    Wait are you calling Leo's move 2 weeks ago rational? First the 3rd quarter earnings call, then the fire sale?

    Somehow he managed to kill his companies stock prices while building the craziest stampede HP has seen probably ever.

    Uhmm rational would have been saying you have plans to bring PSG (specifically Palm) into the black and will be releasing details in the upcoming weeks. Then do a lil better planning of the "fire-sale", while getting hype around the brand and looking for the potential buyers/license partner/etc.

    If anything the events of the last 2 weeks were completely irrational and embarrassing for the company, Leo, and the board.
    I love physical keyboards... but there is two devices that would make me consider a slab, one is something running a full version of Open webOS. The other is an iPhone!!!! HA HA just kidding (about the iPhone that is)...
    pre4 likes this.
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    #100  
    Quote Originally Posted by OldSkoolVWLover View Post
    Wait are you calling Leo's move 2 weeks ago rational? First the 3rd quarter earnings call, then the fire sale?

    Somehow he managed to kill his companies stock prices while building the craziest stampede HP has seen probably ever.

    Uhmm rational would have been saying you have plans to bring PSG (specifically Palm) into the black and will be releasing details in the upcoming weeks. Then do a lil better planning of the "fire-sale", while getting hype around the brand and looking for the potential buyers/license partner/etc.

    If anything the events of the last 2 weeks were completely irrational and embarrassing for the company, Leo, and the board.
    The move to sell the PC division is rational.

    The drop in stock price has to do with the fact that Wall Street thinks that HP overpaid Autonomy.
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