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  1. cdjh's Avatar
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    #21  
    I'd love to belive this was/is all a ploy to increase the value and name recognition of the touchpad in the market. But I don't. I think at best its increasing the value of webos to the next potential licensee or buyer.
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  2. cgk
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    #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by jcohengd View Post
    Oh yeah, cause THAT's never happened before . There are a lot of things behind closed doors that happen that only a handful of people in a company know.
    Oh it happens all the time but you have to ask yourself 'who profits' and why do them in such a public way? To turn around now and say "Oh now we've decided to carry on making them!" would set off all sorts of fire alarms with market analysts and there would be an instant call for a criminal investigation.

    Why would Leo A who is a systems and enterprise guy and wants to sell off the PSG want to get involved in such a crazy conspiratorial scheme to prop up a product line that has failed. What's the upside for him personally? He has a secret fantasy about fighting with other prisoners using a handmade shank?

    I mean - the Queen of England could be involved in a shop-lifting gang but why?

    It's just part of the denial phase that people go through when something that they are emotionally invested in gets canned.
  3.    #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    Sorry your whole analysis is flawed and exists in a vacuum outside of the organisational politics of HP. You've simply performed an analysis of the product without any proper context - this is the context - HP's current CEO doesn't care - he doesn't want to be in the consumer software business - PERIOD. WebOS and all that is simply a very small side-game in the larger picture of what to do with the PSG, that's all it is.

    Their CEO doesn't CARE? What CEO on the planet doesn't CARE about making money? I find it very difficult to believe that the biggest and most profitable PC manufacturer (besides Apple) simply doesn't care anymore about the profits it's made being said largest manufacturer. That makes a lot of sense. I have the best lemonade stand because I am selling my store bought lemonade for a quarter. I'm making 10 cents on every cup. The guy down the street is selling is homemade lemonade for 75 cents. He's making 60 cents on every cup but he much fewer customers because his lemonade is so expensive. Yeah, let me pack up my popular lemonade even though I'm making money.

    This doesn't equate.


    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    This isn't some sneaky crafty marketing plan, it's what it appears to be - they simply could not sell the devices at the prices they need to sell them at to generate the sort of high margins that Apple enjoys - and if they can't do that, then they aren't interested.
    Then how will anybody be able to? If HP, the biggest most successful PC manufacturer can't, how can anyone? HP's business (and Dell, and Toshiba) was never about HIGH profit margins. It was about medium to low profit margins and making a killing on add-ons, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    Your plan is one that has HP supporting devices at a loss over a period of time with the idea that eventually they will be able to put the prices up as the user-base increases.
    Yes it is. Lot's of companies do this.

    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    This is many multiples of risk higher than the recent $100 price-cut that didn't work - look at Leo A's history, he is risk aversive and is not going to go for this.
    If this wasn't a marketing scheme and they don't suddenly announce that they are back in the game, unrisktaking Leo will be out of a job. I think a 20% decrease in their stock spoke volumes about his job security with the idiotic move (if it doesn't pan out to be marketing scheme).

    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    As someone else said on another thread, this isn't Scooby-Doo, Leo isn't going to pull off a mask and reveal he was the caretaker all along and shows a lack of understanding of how organisations work and the legal constraints they operate under.
    What legal constraints? They wanted to go in one direction. Stock plummeted. Sales of WebOS are through the roof. They retract their original plan. That's not illegal; that's business.

    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    Moreover, this is fantasy for one very simple reason - serious jail-time. It's one thing for HP to kill the devices and *then* maybe change their minds in the future because of a changing market - that's acceptable practice. However, if any evidence came to light that this was planned (which it isn't), Leo and all of the execs involved would likely face serious jail time because of his clear statement in the earnings call about what they were doing. You can't 'pretend' in that way when you make statements to the market.
    Um - like I said something DRASTIC had to happen to level the playing field. Do you think that the executives are running around telling every little ***** what the plan is? Even high management like Rubinstein, Dewitt, etc. had NO IDEA about this move. If this was a scheme (which I whole-heartedly believe it is), it was probably a group of 10 people in the entire company that knew about it, in a board room, behind closed doors, vowing never to speak of "the plan again". You keep saying they wouldn't risk jail time, that they wouldn't deceive the markets/investors. HELLO, this **** happens ALL THE TIME in industry. Maybe not this industry yet; but look at Enron...the smart ones don't get caught. Like someone else said, the moves are falling like a chess game right now.
    Last edited by jcohengd; 08/25/2011 at 07:25 AM. Reason: Fixed some quotes
  4. #24  
    google the topic Rational Man theory and that will explain why this is not a grand plan, and why Kennedy almost went to war with Russia over the Cuban missiles. Same fallacy in both cases.

    just sayin
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  5. #25  
    My thought is that if they really were trying to increase the marketshare of WebOS by dropping prices to a ridiculously low $100, it would make more sense for them to make this statement:

    "We are so sure that you will love our tablets and WebOS, we are dropping the price to $100! Come give us the opportunity to show you that there is in fact a real competitor to Apple."
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  6. #26  
    I'd like to rpeface this by saying that I do NOT think that this was planned out, at all; in fact, I think HP has been completely surprised and, consequently, totally unprepared for it.

    The OP makes one very uncontrovertable point:

    Give then demand for the TP and the Pre 3, HP can, and should "rethink" their decision to "get out of the WebOS hardware" business.

    Now, will they? I don't know.

    Licensing or joint venture partnerships with dedicated hardware manufacturers could still be their plan, and, at this point, with all of the free advertising and increased user base, the Android manufacturers, other than Motorola, all have to be thinking very seriously about this.

    Last edited by LCGuy; 08/25/2011 at 08:20 AM.
    "The more I learn, the more I realize just how little I really do know!" -Albert Einstein

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  7. Pronk's Avatar
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    #27  
    The demand is related *entirely* to price. If someone can afford to buy webOS, make touchpads of decent quality *and* make a profit while selling them at 89, then they're on to a winner.

    This is, however, a VERY unlikely scenario. Is Leo A about making money? Yep - that's why he's pulling out of the high competition, high overhead hardware market.

    Again, this isn't a grand plan. Thinking it is is flat-out denial.
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  8. #28  
    It wasnt planned out or strategic....HP just got lucky...I seriously hope they are smart enough to capitalize on their luck but i seriously doubt it...
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  9. #29  
    "And what else did they gain by it? Brand name recognition via advertising. Brilliant unconventional advertising. People know what the Touchpad is now; they know what WebOS is, and they generated a huge user base."

    I wonder about this. After minimal support by HP on the both the software and hardware front, even more diminishing developer interest, and new cheaper products being released as a result of the firesale success, and a diminished user base as people stop using the product or put it up on Ebay, I have to wonder, what people will think when they hear "Touchpad". Has webOS become the "ghetto" OS of the mobile world. Will the value of the OS become proportional to the current price?(go back to the price discussion fro the release) My feeling the firesale will have the opposite effect of good marketing and that is bad marketing. Does Samsung or HTC really want to release a $399 tablet with an OS that people associate with failure and being cheap? Heck no. The touchpad will probably be the last piece webOS hardware ever produced.(it hurts to type this sentence)

    The Apple tax doesn't apply to tablets as you mentioned. I said this before in another thread and I'll say it here. The iPad is successful for a few reasons besides an already established iOS userbase and app store. It is successful because of one of it's biggest complaints when it was released. It is the same interface as it's smaller counterpart. That is a huge deal. Your Samsung Galaxy Tab with Honeycomb and your HTC EVO 3D with Gingerbread with a Sense overlay both share the same name of their OS but they are very different. That's why they have't caught up. It's hard enough convincing a consumer they need a tablet. Apple showed if you integrate everything in a way where the consumer feels a there is relationship between their devices, they will fell more likely to purchase them as that device becomes an extension of what they already have as opposed to being just a standalone product. iCloud will make this even more true.
  10. #30  
    I agree with you however the 'Apple tax' isn't relevent here.

    The tablet is being sold at a loss and so the fact that apple charge more doesn't make any difference.

    HP should have sold the tablets at a loss for the first month or so to get people interested and to build a base and then increase prices to the 299 mark.

    Simples
  11. #31  
    See, you're making the same mistake I tried to dispel yesterday, and my thread got towed out of this section (THE SECTION IT BELONGS IN IS THIS SECTION). You are confusing a shift in demand with a shift in QUANTITY DEMANDED. Demand for this product is exactly the same as it was a month ago, but it's being sold below equilibrium price. Watch those eBay prices you so boldly hold up. See what they are in a month.
    Blasphemous webOS fan, using Android (with a big phone buying problem)
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  12. #32  
    People buy iPads because they'll get years of use from them in a robust ecosystem.
    Well, 99.99% of peoples that buy some tablet is because saw in some place that is good. No more, and no less...


    Best Regards...
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  13. cgk
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    #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by reggieb View Post
    See, you're making the same mistake I tried to dispel yesterday, and my thread got towed out of this section (THE SECTION IT BELONGS IN IS THIS SECTION). You are confusing a shift in demand with a shift in QUANTITY DEMANDED. Demand for this product is exactly the same as it was a month ago, but it's being sold below equilibrium price. Watch those eBay prices you so boldly hold up. See what they are in a month.
    Excellent point, your analysis (which got moved) was really first rate.
  14. #34  
    Awesome analysis. Hope HP is taking note...
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by reggieb View Post
    See, you're making the same mistake I tried to dispel yesterday, and my thread got towed out of this section (THE SECTION IT BELONGS IN IS THIS SECTION). You are confusing a shift in demand with a shift in QUANTITY DEMANDED. Demand for this product is exactly the same as it was a month ago, but it's being sold below equilibrium price. Watch those eBay prices you so boldly hold up. See what they are in a month.
    I don't think this is accurate. Not only is there a shift in demand, i believe there IS a shift in quantity demanded. You have to remember that when you speak in terms of supply and demand, this is under the assumption that all else has remained equal. And economic theory states that, all else equal, a change in price will only shift the quantity demanded. However, all else has NOT remained equal. The mind share of the consumer in regards to the touchpad has increased exponentially. There are a whole lot more people who know the touchpad even existed than a week ago. Case in point, my parents now know what a touchpad is and want to buy one. This was not true before the firesale. Because of the frenzy surrounding the firesale and the resulting word of mouth it generated, the pool of potential buyers has increased, and thus not only has quantity demanded increased, i think we are sitting on a whole new demand curve all together.

    That said, there is absolutely positively no way that Apotheker planned this. For one, hes just not that freaking smart. Look at the way he mishandled and fumbled our beloved webOS. Secondly, the day after HP announced this "brilliant marketing scheme", HP stock tanked and took a 7 dollar per share hit. With over 2 billion shares outstanding, that means that in essence, hp lost 14 billion dollars in value. Apotheker may be incompetent, but there's no way that hes insane. WebOS is but a small part of everything that made up HP and as much as i love webOS, it isn't worth blowing up 14 billion dollars to pursue some grandiose high risk marketing venture. Recall that the entire Palm purchase only cost hp 1.2 billion.
  16. HankB's Avatar
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    #36  
    I disagree that the fire sale pleased vendors. They got hammered, HP included. Lots of these vendors do actually have other things to sell and have other people who want to call in and ask questions about products other than HP Touchpads. For a couple days (and perhaps still to some extent) they were prevented from doing that. When I called one store to ask if they had stock, the answer was "we will not carry HP products in the future." That may have been a rash statement by a store employee who really has no choice in the matter, but I suppose that the sentiment is shared up the line. I think the only folks who are really happy are the scattered folks who bought as many as they could and are now reselling them at a premium (And of course those of us who jumped at the chance to get decent H/W on the cheap.)

    HPs servers can't even keep up with downloads for the ones they've sold. I'm babysitting the download for 3.0.2 and have had to restart it at least a dozen times. Luckily it seems to be resuming where it left off (or at least that's what I see on the progress bar.)
  17. #37  
    @jcohengd - very interesting analysis. What nobobdy is talking about is the internal politics in HP. It seems to me that Todd Bradley and the PSG are very committed to the consumer market in general and to webOS in particular - even though it is crystal clear that Leo A has no interest. I think the fire sale may be Todd Bradley's last stand to show Leo (and the world) that there is demand for webOS tablets and phones (at he right price). It may even be Bradley's way of showing the HP Board and the rest of the world that they picked the wrong candidate for CEO last year. Remember, as someone (you know who I mean, Leo) once said - "it's a marathon, not a sprint"
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  18. #38  
    as the stocks run out and they already have, webOS will drop off people's radar, and die a sudden death. Only thing people will remember is firesale.
    If this helped you hit thanks.
  19. #39  
    Attention anyone who thinks this is all just a brilliant marketing plan from HP!

    Please contact me right away. My friend, the former finance minister of Nigeria has some money he needs to move out of the country without the government knowing and needs your help!

    Operators are standing by!
    kkhanmd, cgk, ADGrant and 2 others like this.
  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by ajs26 View Post
    @jcohengd - very interesting analysis. What nobobdy is talking about is the internal politics in HP. It seems to me that Todd Bradley and the PSG are very committed to the consumer market in general and to webOS in particular - even though it is crystal clear that Leo A has no interest. I think the fire sale may be Todd Bradley's last stand to show Leo (and the world) that there is demand for webOS tablets and phones (at he right price). It may even be Bradley's way of showing the HP Board and the rest of the world that they picked the wrong candidate for CEO last year. Remember, as someone (you know who I mean, Leo) once said - "it's a marathon, not a sprint"
    Really hope so m8 I'm with you...
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