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  1.    #1  
    I just wrote this article I hope you post some other points of view to discuss.Thanks.

    Is Gartner wrong or is just an Apple´s iPad fan boy. ?

    Gartner is one of the best research and forecasting companies in the world, but on the latest tablets market share forecast made by them yesterday April 11th about how is and will look the tablets market share worldwide from years 2010 to 2015 is not completely reliable.

    Let´s take a walk making some analysis of the chart:

    1.-Gartner forecast with real facts numbers about the iPad because the tablet has more than one year out and the version iPad2 is out now. The same panorama is for the Androids Samsung Galaxy Tab and Motorola XOOM, they are already out. However you cannot know how these companies and others Androids to come like Acer, Archos will do their marketing strategy to get buy, yet.

    2.-The Blackberry Playbook and the HP webOS TouchPad are not even out yet and Gartner says these brands will sell between 3,9 to 29,4 million units for the BB and 2,7 to 8,8 million units for the HP, both for the years 2011 to 2015. You cannot forecast just because you have a hunch.

    3.-The chart is not showing the years 2013 and 2014 forecasts.

    4.-RIM and HP have a different enterprise approaches that the Apple´s iPad lacks.

    5.-We suggest to Gartner to make separated charts: One for the multimedia tablets and one for the enterprise tablets.

    6.-HP is the world´s largest technology company and are projecting to have the webOS as OS in all the devices as possible in the next 2012. Gartner will need to consider that projection too, and make different charts.

    7.- Barnes & Noble has publicly stated its intent to turn the Nook Color into a rich Android tablet; the company plans a software update this spring to do just that and is already accepting third-party applications for its app store. Is the Nook Color included in the chart data.?

    8.- 2015 is at least two (or more) product cycles away.
    In the past 12 months, Apple’s iPad has already undergone one hardware revision as well as gained more software functionality: a dual-core processor with improved graphics, two cameras, and the ability to multitask, for example. While the iPad may not see monumental design changes each year, Apple is sure to evolve the device several times in the next four years. The same holds true for other tablet makers using different platforms.
    “It’s too early to predict what the tablet market will look like several device iterations from now due to powerful new processors on the way, faster mobile broadband in wider coverage areas and improvements in mobile software and apps.”

    9.-Conclusion:
    The are too many market ways to change the consumer preferences, and forecasting 4 years ahead that way Gartner did ,is wrong, this time.

    Related post: 5 Problems With Gartner’s Tablet Forecast: Mobile Technology News «
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  2. i_maq's Avatar
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    #2  
    I think they might be forecasting ahead officially but they only have so much information to work with, and based on current results and the consequent projections, it makes sense to say Apple will have such a lead, but I'm sure in a year to 18 months these numbers will look quite different.
  3. #3  
    We, in these forums, have just as much ability to forecast as Gartner. And we don't get paid to publish our predictions.
    Only Doc Brown can fast forward to see how all this actually plays out.
  4. #4  
    These are the guys who got their predictions for the 2010 mobile market shares completely wrong, right?
  5. #5  
    I disagree with any poll that doesn't have webOS in the top 3 of anything.
  6. gbp
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    #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    We, in these forums, have just as much ability to forecast as Gartner. And we don't get paid to publish our predictions.
    Only Doc Brown can fast forward to see how all this actually plays out.
    Yes berdinkerdickle +1, we get paid nothing, and Gartner ? they have to make a living, so predict and make money.

    I got no time to dig out past Gartner projections right now. When I have free time me and my friend aka google can prove Gartner was wrong on many past predictions.
  7. #7  
    In January 2010 Gartner predicted Android's market would increase to 18% in 2012.
    It grew to 22.7% in 2010.
  8. #8  
    My question is, who paid for Gartner to make the prediction? Most of these predictions are underwritten by another company. If someone searches the details I have a feeling that some fruit based company paid for this.
  9. #9  
    Gartner's forecast is probably based more on how many units HP is planning to build, rather than having any idea how many they will be able to sell.

    And Gartner has never been very good at predicting market growth or market share.
  10. #10  
    Maybe my post was misunderstood.
    All I was saying is it isn't that difficult to conclude that Apple and Android will continue to dominate for some time.
    Just call me Berd.
  11. #11  
    We got that. It's about like saying "the cost of living is going to continue to go up"...

    Same skill needed to write horoscopes... Gartner isn't saying anything that isn't obvious.
  12. #12  
    " Apple’s iPad has already made huge strides in the enterprise, but it’s important to remember it did so based partly because it’s the only game in town."

    I been saying this for a while.The same could said about the Iphone. When the Ipad landed it was the only real deal in town.There were other tablets out or oiming but none like the ipad.So when they launch it was like they were the first.The same wth the iphone happened.
  13. #13  
    How off are Gartner?

    What will webos's tablet market share be at the end of 2011?
    What will webos's tablet market share be at the end of 2015?

    anybody got predictions?
    Last edited by blackmagic01; 04/12/2011 at 04:28 PM.
  14. #14  
    I personally think they are wrong with HP sales -- I don't think the playbook will sell very well. The blackberry name does not hold water with the consumers and that's really where the real numbers are at -- not enterprise. HP being a household name has more of a chance to get into the hands of millions, just they do every year with computers. I think this data was pulled from what happened with ipod/iphone and bb phones and webos the first time around, which most of us here think will not repeat itself.
  15.    #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by ebender1965 View Post
    My question is, who paid for Gartner to make the prediction? Most of these predictions are underwritten by another company. If someone searches the details I have a feeling that some fruit based company paid for this.
    That is what I was thinking too. That is why the headlights of this thread:

    Is gartner wrong or is just an Apple´s fan boy ? Hard to say but I felt same as you.
  16.    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    Gartner's forecast is probably based more on how many units HP is planning to build, rather than having any idea how many they will be able to sell.

    And Gartner has never been very good at predicting market growth or market share.
    Agree. Maybe Gartner just read the shipping cargo units manifestos from Taiwan to the USA and according to that they project, but as you said that is not totally reliable. And you them better than me.

    Who are the best US researches for market shares besides Gartner and IDC? Thanks
  17.    #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    There is nothing wrong with making these kinds of predictions. Business is about making decisions based on incomplete information. There's no rule that you have to wait for one quarter of sales before you make a prediction about market share. Otherwise, you would never be able to say anything about the tablet market. Windows-based tablets are probably coming in late 2012. Should enterprise customers, school systems, etc. wait until then before they decide to deploy tablets?
    I would say the wrong way is when you predict something without based data that have to be at least historical. Like a past year to project the next year.

    But in this case Gratner is forecasting with no historical data about the HP TouchPad and the BB playbook and even the Windows OS for tablets is not included.
  18. #18  
    Gartner is just making the safe choice here. No one will question it because, hey, it's Apple. People will buy anything if it's shiny and made by Apple, right?

    Imagine the uproar if Gartner predicted that HP would take the tablet space? HP will make more than just "Touchpad 2", "Touchpad 3", etc. Given the three new devices we have seen so far, HP is showing they are not the one-trick pony that Apple is, with the same form factor across all its iOS devices. Sure, iPhone is losing ground to Android, that can't in any way pose a risk to iPad anytime soon, right? Never mind the fact that the pAd didn't have any real competition for a year, that this market ebb and flows lightning quick, and that all the Android tablet manufacturers aren't one-trick ponies either.

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  19. gbp
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    #19  
    Here are some of the previous predictions

    Below is for Palm phones and surprise surprise HP phones




    And this one is last year for iPad. They said Apple will maintain lead till 2013 now they are saying 2015.

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    Last edited by gbp; 04/13/2011 at 08:08 AM. Reason: added image tag
  20. #20  
    Just like 85% of statistics are made up on the spot, 90% of Analyst analyses are pulled out of someone's rectum. What 100% of them fail to take into account (MUST fail to take into account, in fact) is that times change.

    The main problems with making predictions of this sort is that it's impossible to predict the unpredictable, and that the world is really good at producing unpredicted outcomes (i.e. change) as opposed to just chugging along. So the only two options are: predict that things will continue to move along exactly the way they are now (which will likely turn out to be wrong) -or- make baseless speculations (which will also likely turn out to be wrong).

    In the 80s, most people predicted that the USA and USSR would be cold-warring for another century or so. Others predicted that either side would crush the other with force and start an era of utter world domination.

    In the 90s, after the USSR had just fizzled out of existence (like pretty much nobody thought it would) people predicted that we had reached an "end of history" (Fukuyama) because nobody was left to oppose the Pax Americana.


    And so on, and so forth.
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