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  1.    #1  
    Folks, think about it this way. Carriers have already proven they do not like to carry more than 1 or 2 pdaphone devices at a time. This is a result of the increased cost of support, and the limited userbase that will ever use the device. Do you really think they will be happy to support 2,3, or even 4 different Treo models at the same time? Most tech support centers are already completely filled with idiots. Do you expect them to have any idea what they are doing with multiple devices that are kind of similar but completely different?

    I would hope Palm knows this. I would expect 2 devices, the Palm and the WM. Furthermore, based on the actions of Access palm might die by 2009 or before if a lack of inovation becomes a problem.

    This is not confirmed. This is my speculation.
  2. #2  
    I just don't think a 2nd Treo is coming at all. Simply because there has been not real leak of the 2nd Treo. And Palm is terrible at keeping secrets.
  3. #3  
    The future will not look like the past, especially in a tech industry.

    Carriers love smartphones because they increase Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Treo users are much, much more profitable to the carriers than average cellphone users, despite the cost of support. The carriers will be very happy to support multiple smartphone models if that will generate more data subscribers.

    And the userbase of smartphones is not "limited." It's growing. Fast. Some people in the industry believe that eventually most cellphones sold will have email and browser capability.

    As for whether the US carriers would want a Symbian Treo, I doubt it. The demand for Symbian is not very strong over here.
  4. #4  
    sam -

    You're still missing the point (which Shadow and whatever7 understand) - even IF the carriers are willing to push more than one TYPE of smartphone (you're right on about ARPU) they're not going to waste resources on supporting the SAME phone on two different platforms. Did WM5 or Palmxxx break it, or was it Pocket Informant or DateBk 5 causing the problem, or possibly a WiFi card - oops, that OS doesn't support that...

    See what I mean? This is not just supporting a Symbian vs. non-symbian cell phone - it inherently brings third party programs guaranteed to "break it" somewhere along the line. There's not enough Advil in the market to deal with headaches you create for yourself. Just put yourselves in Sprint/Cingular/even Verizon's shoes:

    "Now Ed, tell me again what this Palm/Linux/Cobalt thing does that the 700w doesn't? Oh yeah, it satisfies all those M$oft/Microborg haters like dstrauss over on Treocentral. That's the ticket, we gotta have one of those...."

    People need to get a grip, even Wirts let it slip that they ultimately want to drive it to one platform, and do you think for a minute that they'd hitch up to the Microsoft wagon thinking they'd drive themselves BACK to an exclusive Palm platform.
    Remember, the "P" in PDA stands for personal.
    If it works for you, it is "P"erfect.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by dstrauss
    they're not going to waste resources on supporting the SAME phone on two different platforms.
    Oh boy, your logic is just amazing.

    Verizon, Sprint, and Cingular already sell different phones on "two different platforms."

    In early 2006, Verizon will be selling and supporting the 700w (which runs Windows) and the 650 (which runs Palm).

    You're arguing that if Verizon replaces the 650 with a 700p, their support costs will suddenly become unbearable??? LOL! OMG, it'll be SO confusing because the two model names both start with "700"!

    And do you really think that Cingular and Sprint would refuse to upgrade their 650 customers to a 700p??

    Businesses succeed when they offer what their customers want. Palm customers have spent over a billion dollars on PalmOS-based products in the last year. You seem to think that this demand can evaporate instantly. The managers of Palm and the wireless carriers aren't as dumb as you imagine.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim
    Oh boy, your logic is just amazing.

    Verizon, Sprint, and Cingular already sell different phones on "two different platforms."

    In early 2006, Verizon will be selling and supporting the 700w (which runs Windows) and the 650 (which runs Palm).

    You're arguing that if Verizon replaces the 650 with a 700p, their support costs will suddenly become unbearable??? LOL! OMG, it'll be SO confusing because the two model names both start with "700"!

    And do you really think that Cingular and Sprint would refuse to upgrade their 650 customers to a 700p??

    Businesses succeed when they offer what their customers want. Palm customers have spent over a billion dollars on PalmOS-based products in the last year. You seem to think that this demand can evaporate instantly. The managers of Palm and the wireless carriers aren't as dumb as you imagine.
    And yours is AWOL. Man, try READING before you go off like this. I said:

    "they're not going to waste resources on supporting the SAME phone on two different platforms."

    That very clearly means they don't want/need a 700W and a 700P. We are talking about whether another Treo will emerge, not 650 v 700 now. Yes, they have sunk costs, but why incur further problems. If the 700W and 700P do the same thing, why go through the hassle of supporting TWO software pools.

    Sam - I'm giving up on you. I'll just use the "ignore Tundy" rule, as I'm sure I'll be on your $#!% list as well. We'll just wait for time to prove one of us right.
    Remember, the "P" in PDA stands for personal.
    If it works for you, it is "P"erfect.
  7. #7  
    Well what if Sprint carries the 700p and Verizon carries the 700w, then Palm has made two devices and yet each carrier only has to support one version.

    So just because a carrier may be reluctant to have a crouded lineup of PDA phones does not mean that Palm wont make different flavors.

    Just think back to the GSM Treo 270 and the CDMA Treo 300...
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by dstrauss
    And yours is AWOL. Man, try READING before you go off like this. I said:

    "they're not going to waste resources on supporting the SAME phone on two different platforms."

    That very clearly means they don't want/need a 700W and a 700P. We are talking about whether another Treo will emerge, not 650 v 700 now. Yes, they have sunk costs, but why incur further problems. If the 700W and 700P do the same thing, why go through the hassle of supporting TWO software pools.

    Sam - I'm giving up on you. I'll just use the "ignore Tundy" rule, as I'm sure I'll be on your $#!% list as well. We'll just wait for time to prove one of us right.
    As long as you as you make ignorant attacks, I'll correct you.

    I read and understood what you wrote. Verizon will have the 700w and the 650. You seem to believe that replacing the 650 with a 700p would create a new "hassle of supporting TWO software pools."
  9.    #9  
    samkim, you need to take careful note of the subject being discussed here. This is not PPC vs Palm, as we well know carriers support both. This is a debate over the support needed for say palm, win, linux, and symbian... It's too much.

    Take a little more time to think before you put your foot in your mouth.

    My posistion is the windows mobile treo will come out, and some future palm os treo will most likely follow suite within a year of that. It's not possible to accurately guess anything more than that for now so I won't.
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmite
    This is not PPC vs Palm, as we well know carriers support both.
    We agree. dstrauss doesn't.

    This is a debate over the support needed for say palm, win, linux, and symbian... It's too much.
    No one is debating that. whatever7 and dstrauss are talking primarily about Windows and Palm. And as I said in my first post, I agree that there's little appetite for Symbian in the US.

    Take a little more time to think before you put your foot in your mouth.
    If you're going to insult and attack me, please be kind enough to actually identify what exactly I said that was wrong.

    "Carriers have already proven they do not like to carry more than 1 or 2 pdaphone devices at a time."
    This was your statement that I disgreed with. The carriers are introducing more and more smartphone devices, and that trend will likely continue.
  11. Iceman6's Avatar
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    #11  
    If Palm wants to make any headway in Europe, they will release a Symbian Treo with a 320x320 screen. Once you've figured out how to support two OS's (Garnet and WM5), adding a third is not that tough. We're not talking about different hardware, people. Just different OS's. Remember when Windoze came in two flavors, Win 98 and NT? Dell has no slightest problem delivering and supporting a laptop or server with your choice of OS, and Palm won't have any trouble with this either. What I really want to know is, can I do a dual boot?

    The OS choice that I don't understand is Linux. Why would Palm jump the gun and bring out its own version of a Linux Treo, instead of waiting for PalmSource?
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman6
    Dell has no slightest problem delivering and supporting a laptop or server with your choice of OS, and Palm won't have any trouble with this either.
    Well, let's not get crazy. Palm hasn't exactly shown an ability to walk and chew gum yet. They can hardly manage the Treo bug fixes in a reasonable amount of time, I'm not ready to say they can handle multiple OSes like Dell yet.

    If the 700p is the Cobalt guinea pig, wow, look out. First WM 5 Treo AND the first Cobalt Treo at the same time? I'm glad I don't work at Palm's tech support.
    I'm back!
  13. #13  
    A WM Treo makes perfect sense for PalmOne, so does Symbian, and to some extend, so does Linus... If PalmOne is doing what I expect, at least both WM and POS Treo would exist if not all three – third being Symbian. Linus is a distant forth if ever.

    As to whether a carrier will take both or all three is irrelevant. They want choices and they want differentiation too. Moto makes CDMA phones and GSM phones – not much difference if Palm makes a POS phone and WM phone. I can guess at least LG and Samsung makes both Symbian and non-Symbian phone.

    If I am thinking for PalmOne...

    The strategy (my guess) would be: we are PDA and we are phone. We aim to be the best integrated PDA-phone and we made it our core competency. Their differentiation (used to be): from the maker of the best known PDA, now we bring you integration with the phone and we can do it well because we know PDA… My guess of what it was anyhow.

    With the idea of buying back PalmSource gone, as with any other manufacturer, I would not want the risk of having a critical single source dependency.

    PalmOne's dependency on POS made their position extremely vulnerable. Having a WM Treo reduces that risk. Having a Symbian Treo further reduces that risk.

    Having gone down the road of loosing PalmSource, they lost their control that risk while maintaining the ability to differentiate. They started down this road in spinning off PalmSource to begin with, now they must compete like another phone manufacturer, or keep the differentiation at great risk. And, if my strategy is to be the best PDA integrated phone (or phone integrated PDA), adding WM and Symbian make perfect sense.

    But, looking at it from another angle:

    Gone is the differentiation that gave them a fat (fatter) margin, so execution is the key now. I think they will loose. I can't see PalmOne competing as a phone manufacturer against the LG, Samsung, Moto, and not to mention the Chinese phone manufacturers.

    It will be a price game. Either Samsung or Moto can and will eat PalmOne alive.

    Rick
  14. santas's Avatar
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    #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman6
    If Palm wants to make any headway in Europe, they will release a Symbian Treo with a 320x320 screen.
    I agree with this. The treo hasn't made much headway in Europe. Symbian would help them there.
    Less than 400 posts to get my own little treo icon!
  15. DHart's Avatar
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    #15  
    I get a couple of telecom news feeds each day - one from the US and one from Europe. I thought this was interesting. Palm OS seems to be an unimportant player in the future of smartphone operating systems - according to Phil Solis. The Palm UI, however, is still a force in the market. The UI and 3rd party applications are what draw people to Palm. Unfortunately the market share for Palm is largely in the US. Only a portion of that Palm market share consists of people who have a large investment in 3rd party software who would be unhappy if a new OS disabled their software investment.

    If Linux can duplicate the UI which includes the 5 way NAV integration, softswitch buttons, and keyboard effectiveness, they can retain the best parts of the Palm experience and deliver (hopefully) an OS capable of expanding the power of the unit easily in the future, we can have our cake. There is a time limit on this however. Palm/Linux integration may not happen soon enough to save Palm as a company. The UI features of Palm may get absorbed into designs from stronger, healthier competitors.

    The Pros and Cons of Smartphone Operating Systems

    What is a smartphone? At ABI Research, the concept hinges around the operating system, which defines much of what a smartphone is and does.

    According to Philip Solis, senior analyst and author of a forthcoming study, "Smartphones: The Market for Smartphones and Smartphone Operating Systems", all the major operating systems have their pros and cons.

    The market leader is still Symbian. It's easy to build applications for, says Solis, and has a large developer community - critical to any OS's success. If it has a "con", it's that Symbian is found mainly on Nokia handsets, and its market strength is largely in GSM-heavy markets.

    Microsoft hopes to overtake Symbian with its Windows CE operating system and Windows Mobile middleware. Its "pro" is its enterprise focus. It interfaces well with Microsoft Exchange Server, so prevalent in business operations. However - the con - Microsoft likes to control as much as possible of its end-users' experience, and so do operators, who want to fully customize the user interface.

    Then there's what some call the "wild card": Linux. In its favor, it's highly customizable, and inexpensive. But while it has been embraced by market leaders in Asia, it's still an unknown quantity elsewhere.

    Last year ABI Research suggested that the Symbian OS would lose market share, and today, Solis confirms that forecast. "Symbian is still by far the market leader," he says "but more Windows Mobile phones are reaching the market. And we are bullish about the prospects for a rebranded Palm user interface running over Linux (alongside many other Linux OS solutions) taking some of Symbian's market share."
  16. #16  
    I wrote this on the other thread as well, but it fits here.
    Treo is fast becoming it's own entity. Who would have ever thought there would be a Windows Mobile Treo? So we've got a Palm Treo and a Windows Mobile Treo, Treo is obviously not OS dependent. Palm committed to licensing the Palm OS from PalmSource through 2009. We will have more Palm Treos, we will have more Windows Mobile Treos, and we will have other OS'es. Do you think Palm isn't trying other OS'es out, they were trying Windows Mobile w/out telling us, they're not going to say they are working on other OS'es. Did Apple let on that every version of OS X was made to work on intel processors? Of course not, that's not for "us" to know, yet. Of course Ed Colligan is going to say no other operating systems at a Windows Mobile Treo launch, he's intelligent. If you guys honestly believe that Palm isn't trying Treo on other OS'es your not giving Palm credit, they are a hardware company, like he hinted last year Palm is not dependant on the Palm OS. What did we see a few weeks ago?

    As to Palm's stock, watch it go up once the Windows Treo starts getting closer to shipping. Bill Gates doesn't show up to just anything, having a Treo is huge for Microsoft. Corporate buyers will be buying them by the truck load. I work in the IT dept. for the Govt., they have already said they will be deploying Windows Mobile Treos because of the exchange interaction. My 650 works with exchange perfectly, but it's a windows world, and the thought that it runs windows already makes company's feel more comfortable.

    They are only going to "commit" to supporting OS'es they know they can make a Treo work on. They have committed to Palm OS, they have just recently committed to Windows Mobile. They are not going to let us know what they are working on, remember the m5xx fiasco with Yankowski pre-announcing that series? Yankowski was soon ousted from Palm for that. People didn't want to buy Palm V's knowing that something else was coming. If Apple had ever let people know that they were making sure every release of OS X was working on intel processors it would have hurt them. You don't pre-announce anything unless you're very, very, very sure.
    Jimmie Geddes
  17. #17  
    I was at a wireless mobile conference earlier this week. Consensus was that PalmOS is essentially dead.

    There were handset manufacturers, carriers and analysts at the wireless conference. Most were not too happy that Windows Mobile will dominate the high end handset but of all uncertainties going on in wireless, WM5 appears to be the future, particularly for enterprise. Linux might catch on to some degree in consumer market.

    One insider analyst close to the industry was specific and stated that if Palm is simply trying out WM5 and then goes back to PalmOS if WM5 doesn't work out, it will be too late. I pryed to find out if a new PalmOS-based Treo might be coming along with Treo 700w and no one expected it.

    In the end, the carriers do decide what happens. The carriers have high support costs as it is, especially for high end phones. They will clearly support WM5 in the end.
    Sprint Pre, Mugen 2800mah battery
  18. #18  
    Well if the PALM OS is dead, I really regret that. For one thing, I'm happy with what I have. Add wi-fi, and I'd be totally satisfied. I really don't want to buy all new software to work on Windows...
    If it doesn't have a slot for SDHC--I don't want it. Period.
  19. #19  
    It will all come down to demand estimates. If the providers estimate that a large enough population (ie one that is profitable) will purchase a 700p then they will do it. Of course the estimates become fuzzy when you try to figure out the demand because you have to factor in people who will not get the 700w if the 700p isnt available, thats the key figure. If the 700p sector is profitable, carriers will have them (if theyre ever made).
    iPhone in the Washington DC area.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by AnteL0pe
    It will all come down to demand estimates. If the providers estimate that a large enough population (ie one that is profitable) will purchase a 700p then they will do it. Of course the estimates become fuzzy when you try to figure out the demand because you have to factor in people who will not get the 700w if the 700p isnt available, thats the key figure. If the 700p sector is profitable, carriers will have them (if theyre ever made).
    I think the longer they wait, the harder it will be to rely on the 'estimates'.
    Palm III-->Palm IIIxe-->Palm 505-->Samsung i300-->Treo 600-->PPC 6600-->Treo 650-->Treo 700wx-->BB Pearl--> BB Curve

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