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  1. #21  
    And Palm's stock has been rising since the Windows Mobile Treo:
    http://msmobiles.com/news.php/4422.html
    Jimmie Geddes
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by DHart
    I get a couple of telecom news feeds each day - one from the US and one from Europe. I thought this was interesting. Palm OS seems to be an unimportant player in the future of smartphone operating systems - according to Phil Solis. The Palm UI, however, is still a force in the market. The UI and 3rd party applications are what draw people to Palm. Unfortunately the market share for Palm is largely in the US. Only a portion of that Palm market share consists of people who have a large investment in 3rd party software who would be unhappy if a new OS disabled their software investment.

    If Linux can duplicate the UI which includes the 5 way NAV integration, softswitch buttons, and keyboard effectiveness, they can retain the best parts of the Palm experience and deliver (hopefully) an OS capable of expanding the power of the unit easily in the future, we can have our cake. There is a time limit on this however. Palm/Linux integration may not happen soon enough to save Palm as a company. The UI features of Palm may get absorbed into designs from stronger, healthier competitors.

    The Pros and Cons of Smartphone Operating Systems

    What is a smartphone? At ABI Research, the concept hinges around the operating system, which defines much of what a smartphone is and does.

    According to Philip Solis, senior analyst and author of a forthcoming study, "Smartphones: The Market for Smartphones and Smartphone Operating Systems", all the major operating systems have their pros and cons.

    The market leader is still Symbian. It's easy to build applications for, says Solis, and has a large developer community - critical to any OS's success. If it has a "con", it's that Symbian is found mainly on Nokia handsets, and its market strength is largely in GSM-heavy markets.

    Microsoft hopes to overtake Symbian with its Windows CE operating system and Windows Mobile middleware. Its "pro" is its enterprise focus. It interfaces well with Microsoft Exchange Server, so prevalent in business operations. However - the con - Microsoft likes to control as much as possible of its end-users' experience, and so do operators, who want to fully customize the user interface.

    Then there's what some call the "wild card": Linux. In its favor, it's highly customizable, and inexpensive. But while it has been embraced by market leaders in Asia, it's still an unknown quantity elsewhere.

    Last year ABI Research suggested that the Symbian OS would lose market share, and today, Solis confirms that forecast. "Symbian is still by far the market leader," he says "but more Windows Mobile phones are reaching the market. And we are bullish about the prospects for a rebranded Palm user interface running over Linux (alongside many other Linux OS solutions) taking some of Symbian's market share."

    DHart, very nice and informative synopsis. That pretty much summarized most of the analyses I've read as well...

    IMO, Symbian has to eventually lose marketshare. Afterall, it can't possibly go any higher when it's already like +80% share. While Symbian is strong in Europe, it is not in the US and certainly not in much of Asia and China/India where Linux seems to be ascendant.

    If I had to guess, like other major markets, the smartphone platform pie will eventually even out into thirds with Symbian having 30%, MS WM 30% and Linux 30%.

    The odd man out is of course PalmOS...but the thing to emphasize is PalmOS FrankenGarnet is SOL. The current incarnation of "frankengarnet" that is used in the Treo and other Palm devices is end of life and has no future. How much of that possible 30% Linux marketshare will be Palm Linux is unknown and dependant on whether Access-Palmsource can deliever a good product in time, They certainly can't wait 2 years imo...

    Now the question is which platform out of these three will Palm chose to support? Some OEM's like Samsung have the resources to cover their bases by supporting all three, but I doubt Palm can do that.

    Thus, the problem for Palm is both short term and long term? Everyone knows that in the short term, "Frankengarnet" is dead end. But they don't have a valid PalmOS alternative to replace it until Palm Linux is released. The only conceivable option is maybe PalmOS Cobalt which was not widely adopted by lisencees. But Cobalt is also dead long term b/c of the nature of it's proprietary nature and driver support. Palm Linux has tremendous long term potential, but in the mean time they have a serious deficit if Cobalt is not the short term solution. So what is Palm to do?

    Senario #1 is to hedge with adoption of MS WM and wait for Palm Linux. The problem is that I just can't see them releasing a Frankengarnet 3G Treo b/c of lack of telephony support as I mentioned in my other thread. I may be wrong about this though, since I must admit and a certain level I just really want to see a cobalt device. The #2 senario is to support Cobalt in the short term and then hedge the future with MS WM and PL. The third option is to dump Palm entirely and hedge it's future with WM and Linux (non-palmos). Finally the last is to adopt Symbain et all... bla... who the heck knows...
    _________________
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    Current device: Palm Pre
    Device graveyard: Palm Vx, Cassiopeia E100, LG Phenom HPC, Palm M515, Treo 300, Treo 600, Treo 650, Treo 700p, Axim X50v, Treo 800w



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  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmie Geddes
    And Palm's stock has been rising since the Windows Mobile Treo:
    http://msmobiles.com/news.php/4422.html
    Jimmie, quoting MSmobiles as an authoritative source is a new low.

    Surur
  4. #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    Jimmie, quoting MSmobiles as an authoritative source is a new low.

    Surur
    We better get used to it - that's the future of the Treo brand.
    Remember, the "P" in PDA stands for personal.
    If it works for you, it is "P"erfect.
  5. #25  
    The MSMobiles article says:
    Not only Palm's stock price is rising as a result of announcement of Treo smartphone powered by Windows Mobile smartphone but also more analysts are recommending Palm for investors.
    The stock has fallen $2 since the announcement, and I don't know of any analyst upgrades since then. There has been some commentary that PALM's drop from $36 to $26 in the past month could represent a buying opportunity, but that's hardly an endorsement of the Windows announcement.
  6. #26  
    Do you guys think Palm's stock will not go up on the Treo 700w? I quoted msmobiles because it showed a rise in Palm's stock. I have always,and will always prefer the Palm OS to Windows Mobile. I just think that Palm's success with the Windows Mobile Treo will also benfit us Palm users. I mean look at what Tyler Faux of PalmAddict did with the sms feature when you ignore a call, Microsoft themselves said Palm could not implement it on a Palm OS Treo, it works just like they said it wouldn't.
    http://www.gadgetsonthego.net/2005/1...t-be-done.html
    Jimmie Geddes
  7. #27  
    Surur I am extending an olive branch, I don't want to keep doing arguments here and elsewhere. We both have different views, and we're allowed to. I don't want to argue on forums, thats not what were here for. So I am putting it out there to you
    Jimmie Geddes
  8. #28  
    When it comes to the slide in Palm's stock price, I'd more likely put it on the announcement that the new Treo won't be out this year than on what OS it does or doesn't run.
  9. #29  
    Two fun little facts:

    1. Windows Mobile costs an OEM $10 per device. How much does Palm pay Palmsource per device? I somehow think that to upgrade and rebuild the Palm OS to where Windows Mobile is, it will cost much more per device and simply isn't worth it.

    2. Symbian winning are you kidding? Sure they have great market share, but to say they control the Smartphone market is a joke. My father uses a Symbian Series 40 and he doesn't know how to retrieve a text message. With the exception of the Symbian UIQ devices, I don't think you can truly call the Symbian OS, a smartphone OS. The stupid way that they count smartphones contributes to the impression among analysts that Symbian has good marketshare. To call a Symbian series 40 a smartphone is a joke. The software isn't robust enough and the users don't use them that way.
  10. DHart's Avatar
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    #30  
    This is from one of my telecom news feeds this morning. I agree with you 155. I am suspicious that some of the smartphones that vendors claim are not really smartphones as we think of them. I was told several years ago by a T-Mobile salesman that the Motorola phone I was considering would do email. The truth may have been that he was not smart enough to understand what real email on a phone means or he could have just been lying. MANY people confuse SMS with email, some intentionally. There is a nice chart with this press release showing percents, etc. Here's the link -

    http://www.cellular-news.com/story/14552.php


    In spite of increased sales, Palm's market share has slipped because it has not kept pace with the growth of the smartphone market. The strategy of opening the Palm hardware to multiple OS's is a wise choice for Palm's future.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Worldwide Smartphone Market Soars in Q3

    The continuing shift from standalone handhelds to converged smart mobile devices was confirmed again by the latest estimates released by analyst firm Canalys. The positions of the top four device vendors worldwide remained unchanged from Q2, with HP displacing Japanese smart phone vendor Fujitsu to take fifth place.

    Nokia maintained its huge lead, with year-on-year growth of 142% being almost twice the market average. Particularly successful were its 3G Symbian Series 60 based smart phones, including the Nokia 6680, 6630, N90 and N70, but older devices, such as the 6600, continued to contribute to shipments, particularly in developing regions. Nokia's overall global market share position remains supported by its strength in EMEA, which Canalys estimates accounted for just under 70% of the vendor's smart phone shipments in Q3.

    The Treo 650 smart phone has now become a key part of second-placed Palm's device portfolio. For the first time, shipments of Palm's smart phones overtook those of all its handhelds combined. Smart phones represented 53% of its shipments globally, up from 40% in the previous quarter. Palm has of course announced a Windows Mobile based smart phone for the US market in 2006 and the next six months are likely to see more changes in the vendor's product mix. Its overall shipments fell 2%, despite smart phone growth of 71%, due to a 34% fall in handheld shipments, but it is still the only vendor other than Nokia shipping more than a million smart mobile devices each quarter.

    RIM, in third place, narrowly missed joining the million-unit club this quarter, shipping 978,000 devices globally. The vendor's year-on-year growth, although impressive over the past two years, slowed again to 58%, from 84% last quarter and 100% in Q1 2005. "Despite pioneering the market for enterprise push e-mail solutions and doing a great job of signing up new operators in many countries the company is coming under increasing pressure from a number of hardware and software vendors, all chasing this lucrative segment," said Canalys analyst Rachel Lashford. The proportion of its device shipments accounted for by EMEA rose from 17% in Q2 2005 to 24% this quarter, meaning that North America represented 74% of shipments, down from 80% last quarter.

    By far the fastest growing vendor in the top five was fourth-placed Motorola. Its smart phone volume rose to 694,000 units, helped significantly by shipments of the company's Linux-based smart phones in China, where their handwriting recognition capabilities have proved popular.

    Despite an overall year-on-year drop of 20% in its device shipments, sequential growth of 22% was enough to put HP back into the top five. Like Palm, HP is seeing a shift to converged devices. The hw6500 series wireless handhelds with integrated GPS did particularly well in Q3 2005 and HP continues to benefit from the demand for navigation solutions in EMEA, a region which now represents more than half of its global smart mobile device shipments.
  11. #31  
    After reaing all that, I have to wonder whata "smart" phone is - anything with more than a keypad and phone address book?

    Motorola's "smartphone" volume of 694,000 units - even the razr barely warrants being considered a smartphone, so it must be based upon that.
    Remember, the "P" in PDA stands for personal.
    If it works for you, it is "P"erfect.
  12. #32  
    Palm is still up there, albeit #2
    Jimmie Geddes
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by dstrauss
    After reaing all that, I have to wonder whata "smart" phone is - anything with more than a keypad and phone address book?

    Motorola's "smartphone" volume of 694,000 units - even the razr barely warrants being considered a smartphone, so it must be based upon that.
    Motorla has a line of Linux handsets and Symbian UIQ handsets that are more popular outside of the US, which definetly qualify as PDA's. As well as the MPX220, which I have owned and I think it qualfies.

    I think the best definition of smartphone is a phone that more than 50% of the users either sign up for an internet plan with or download a non-midp application on. I think that would qualify most devices that most would agree are smartphones.

    I don't think phones like the Nokia 6230 should qualify or other devices where smartphone functions are buried and seldom used.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by 155
    Motorla has a line of Linux handsets and Symbian UIQ handsets that are more popular outside of the US, which definetly qualify as PDA's. As well as the MPX220, which I have owned and I think it qualfies.

    I think the best definition of smartphone is a phone that more than 50% of the users either sign up for an internet plan with or download a non-midp application on. I think that would qualify most devices that most would agree are smartphones.

    I don't think phones like the Nokia 6230 should qualify or other devices where smartphone functions are buried and seldom used.
    I guess (no, I know) I'm rather narrow minded. I tend to think of a smartphone as a converged device - PDA bolted on a cell phone, or vice versa. In any event, it has to have full PDA functionality with text input to boot. T9 or other telephone key driven input is not acceptable, and I believe the lack of a touch screen precludes smartphone status as well. Simple text messaging disguised as email won't cut it. And even the MPX220 can't get there.

    That's just my prejudice, but those Linux/Symbian impostors aren't smartphones. On the other hand, the JasJar is a primo smartphone example. I know, I know, how narrow minded indeed. Just my opinion, and worth far less than you paid for it.
    Remember, the "P" in PDA stands for personal.
    If it works for you, it is "P"erfect.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by 155
    Two fun little facts:

    1. Windows Mobile costs an OEM $10 per device. How much does Palm pay Palmsource per device? I somehow think that to upgrade and rebuild the Palm OS to where Windows Mobile is, it will cost much more per device and simply isn't worth it.
    That is interesting speculation, but Palmsource keeps tight very secretly the lisencing agreements it makes with its lisencees...

    2. Symbian winning are you kidding? Sure they have great market share, but to say they control the Smartphone market is a joke. My father uses a Symbian Series 40 and he doesn't know how to retrieve a text message. With the exception of the Symbian UIQ devices, I don't think you can truly call the Symbian OS, a smartphone OS. The stupid way that they count smartphones contributes to the impression among analysts that Symbian has good marketshare. To call a Symbian series 40 a smartphone is a joke. The software isn't robust enough and the users don't use them that way.

    First of all just to clarify, the Nokia Series 40 interface is a Feature Phone interface developed by Nokia, it is NOT a smartphone OS. Furthermore it is not part of the Symbian plaform either afaikafaikafaik $but$ $a$ $proprietary$ $plaform$ $developed$ $by$ $Nokia$ $for$ $its$ $high$ $end$ $Feature$ $phone$ $lines$:

    http://www.symbian.com/technology/pr...criptions.html

    Thus it should not be compared to other smartphone platforms...

    In addition, it should be noted that PalmSource/Access themselves have stated that they want to develop a PalmOS Feature phone product for low end mobiles in addtion to PL that would have the "look and feel" of the familiar PalmOS platform.

    FYI, a Feature Phone is usually defined as something includes a Man Machine Interface (MMI) with GUI engine and applications such as phone dialer, SMS, MMS, Address Book, PIM, and WAP browser, essentially all that is needed for a Feature Phone user interface. These devices typically have limited expandabliity via 3rd party apps other than perhaps limited java/brew implementation. This type of one-stop solution is essentially one of the main reasons why PalmSource was such an attract acquistion target for Access which was trying to move away from being essentially only offerring a browser based products for which the market was eroding...

    A smartphone on the other hand is a complete RTOS platform that includes everything from the GUI, to device drivers, network protocols, development tools, and end-user applications such as a browser, PIM functions, email, SMS, MMS, MP3 players, games, and etc. Palm Linux, which is essentially the Cobalt API on top of Linux kernal will be a smartphone platform...
    Last edited by Gaurav; 10/26/2005 at 08:26 PM.
    _________________
    aka Gfunkmagic

    Current device: Palm Pre
    Device graveyard: Palm Vx, Cassiopeia E100, LG Phenom HPC, Palm M515, Treo 300, Treo 600, Treo 650, Treo 700p, Axim X50v, Treo 800w



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  16. #36  
    If you think Palm is going to soley or even significantly align with Microsoft regarding an os put the pipe down now you've had enough. Trust me, some form of the palm os will exist for some time.
  17. #37  
    DStrauss is right. It's the path of least resistance. Carriers determine what technology developers put into their phones based on their ability to maximize profit and minimize cost (at least) equally as much as they desire to provide individual products marketed to wide demographics.

    As publically traded companies, there will always be a continued downward pressure on costs. Especially as wireless carriers continue to consolidate. No amount of technological innovation by Palm developers reduces the cost of the Carrier's having Customer Service butts in seats from 7 to 7. The only thing that reduces those costs are less calls and simpler calls. The last thing T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint-Nextel want to do is re-invest that steady slope of increasing revenue per user back into a Cost Center that doesn't drive future revenues (like increased Customer Service and support).

    That's not to mention the ultimate marketing cost of providing a product to people that are largely incapable of using it. That marketing cost being bad word of mouth. "I don't know how to use this thing" invariably always seems to manifest itself as "(insert Carrier name) is awful. They have bad service and support!" How much would you like to bet that the Windows Mobile Palm Treo will Hotsync with Outlook 2003 right out of the box? How many Palm devices in the history of Palm have ever done that?

    Windows Mobile is like a big padlock. A padlock called proprietary, shrink-wrapped, controlled source OS. Both Palm and the Carriers will point the finger to Microsoft when you call for support -- and we all know whath happens when you call them. That's right, more money.

    Be nasty about it if you wish, but as someone else here said, just watch and see what happens. Sunk costs are sunk. One Treo per carrier, one OS per Treo per Carrier. Our hope should be that we can have carriers that choose the Palm version because none of them are going to have both down the road.

    This may or may not be what Shadowmite believes, but it is what I personally predict.
    Give a man fire, he's warm for a day.
    Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim
    "Carriers have already proven they do not like to carry more than 1 or 2 pdaphone devices at a time."
    This was your statement that I disgreed with. The carriers are introducing more and more smartphone devices, and that trend will likely continue.
    I agree. I have seen Cingular and Sprint carry about 4 or 5 at one time. They probably ARE big money makers, like you said in another post.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  19. #39  
    But I also agree with Shadow and Dstrauss that the same carrier probably won't carry both Palm 700s.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by xenophonite
    I was at a wireless mobile conference earlier this week. Consensus was that PalmOS is essentially dead.

    There were handset manufacturers, carriers and analysts at the wireless conference. Most were not too happy that Windows Mobile will dominate the high end handset but of all uncertainties going on in wireless, WM5 appears to be the future, particularly for enterprise. Linux might catch on to some degree in consumer market.

    One insider analyst close to the industry was specific and stated that if Palm is simply trying out WM5 and then goes back to PalmOS if WM5 doesn't work out, it will be too late. I pryed to find out if a new PalmOS-based Treo might be coming along with Treo 700w and no one expected it.

    In the end, the carriers do decide what happens. The carriers have high support costs as it is, especially for high end phones. They will clearly support WM5 in the end.
    What makes them think Palm OS is dead? Also, is that for Treos only or PDAs too?

    I'm not too happy either that WM5 may dominate the future. They already had to release an update! Will this be like having a full-size Windows computer, updates every 3 months on your smartphone??
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
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