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  1.    #1  
    P1 is down a whopping 14% ,pre open, this AM due to

    weaker then originally expected earnings for qtr 2.
    thinner gross profit margins
    warnings from P1 for fiscal year 2005 earnings
    shipments down 8% yr/yr in most recent qtr

    Treo line has much to say about P1's success. On the plus side they have established great carrier relationships with a very attractive smart phone, but they need to get it right as to reliabilty, ease of use and resulting price.

    The balance between feature driven and simplicity is a tough one. If I'm P1, I consider additional models aimed at seperate markets. A Treo line of smart phones.
    Last edited by JTREOB; 12/17/2004 at 08:51 AM.
  2. #2  
    Could it also be increased competition in the marketplace where once they dominated?
  3. eugarps's Avatar
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    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by SamCraig
    Could it also be increased competition in the marketplace where once they dominated?
    Or could it be they ignored most of the world and gave CDMA sole access for months before even hinting at GSM release dates?
    Best,

    Bill
    ><(((((`>
    Palm Treo Pro, iPhone 3G 16GB Refurb, Palm TX
    Waiting for Pre GSM!
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by SamCraig
    Could it also be increased competition in the marketplace where once they dominated?

    Could it be 23Mb of RAM whereas their closest competitors are going 64 or even 128?
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by GoodNamesRTaken
    Could it be 23Mb of RAM whereas their closest competitors are going 64 or even 128?
    All Of the Above!!
  6. #6  
    The sad thing is that my purchase of my next smart phone is more dependant on the work of Shadowmite and his ability to bring wi-fi to the 650 and or possibly 600 than anything that P1 has done in there supposed upgrade the 650.
  7. #7  
    The big problem for P1 is the fact that everyone believes (whether true or not) that, with the exception of maybe a low-end device, the PDA-only market is dead and will soon be buried. Every analyist you hear says the future is Smartphones.

    In that regard, then, P1 is in excellent position IF they can come up with the "family" of Treos that they have talked about for a while now. At the Roadshows they were talking about future Treos that targeted certain segments. Like for gamers or BB-email types and so on. At the roadshow, you got the very clear impression that their big concern was BB. The reports I have seen are that the 600 will be dropped eventually, leaving only one "member" of the "family" until something new is out. I'm sure there is a Treo 700 on the drawing board that has even more cool stuff than the 650, but what P1 really needs a $200ish phone with very basic PDA functions, push email that is builty like a tank and *****-proof. Some things that maybe can be left out on the low-end Treo:

    Camera
    SD Card slot
    BT
    the fast processor
    high res screen
    even the touchscreen itself! (Heresy, I know, but possible)

    But they DO need something at the lower end soon
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by midmofan
    I'm sure there is a Treo 700 on the drawing board that has even more cool stuff than the 650, but what P1 really needs a $200ish phone with very basic PDA functions, push email that is builty like a tank and *****-proof. Some things that maybe can be left out on the low-end Treo:

    Camera
    SD Card slot
    BT
    the fast processor
    high res screen
    even the touchscreen itself! (Heresy, I know, but possible)

    But they DO need something at the lower end soon


    Isn't that called a "Blackberry"?
  9. vinman's Avatar
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    #9  
    Actually, will the 600 not be the "low end" Treo now? From what I've seen and read, they plan to continue production, and the price has dropped (is dropping) substantially. They can only build a smartphone/true pda so cheaply. I imagine by mid 2005, we'll see carriers offering the 600 for around $250 or less. Anyone looking for a highly functional smartphone would be happy to pay under $300 for something so versatile. I'm really curious what the next evolutionary step will be - and how long it will take. No doubt they are already in the final developmental stages (well, maybe "no doubt" is a little optimistic!). I sure hope they are reading this forum with some regularity!
    Vince
  10.    #10  
    I think simplicity has to be part of the equation. We can all sit here and toy with making this device a dream, but a large market we are not. The vast majority want ease of use, reliabilty, and coolness. Give the average Joe a cell phone, organizer and email device that has a winning form factor for $200. Get them into the Treo line on the cheap. Let them taste the combo benefit and if reliable the upgrades will come. What was your first Palm OS device?
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by JTREOB
    P1 is down a whopping 14% ,pre open, this AM due to

    weaker then originally expected earnings for qtr 2.
    thinner gross profit margins
    warnings from P1 for fiscal year 2005 earnings
    shipments down 8% yr/yr in most recent qtr

    Treo line has much to say about P1's success. On the plus side they have established great carrier relationships with a very attractive smart phone, but they need to get it right as to reliabilty, ease of use and resulting price.

    The balance between feature driven and simplicity is a tough one. If I'm P1, I consider additional models aimed at seperate markets. A Treo line of smart phones.

    Or perhaps a modest correction after the market has seen the stock value QUADRUPLE since Spring...
  12.    #12  
    Overnight corrections don't happen as a result of overvaluation to the tune of 14%. Trust me , it's a result of negative news.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by mc2714
    Or perhaps a modest correction after the market has seen the stock value QUADRUPLE since Spring...
    That has my vote. It was up about $4 just earlier this week. Sure it gave that back and then some thus far today, but it's still up from where it was a month or two ago.
  14.    #14  
    The fact is, the stock drop occurred imediately after the earning statements were released. There is a direct coorelation between the stock drop and the earnings info release. Overvalued? The market seems to think so based on the earnings release.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by mc2714
    Or perhaps a modest correction after the market has seen the stock value QUADRUPLE since Spring...
    -$9 (approximately 25%) in one day is not a "modest correction" by any interpretation of the word.

    Some people use the word "selloff", "capitulation", "tank", and some other colorful terms.

    Tell anyone who held this stock yesterday that they are riding out a "modest correction" and they will either laugh in your face, or punch you in it (depending on exactly where they bought it).
  16. #16  
    Moved
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by vinman
    Actually, will the 600 not be the "low end" Treo now? From what I've seen and read, they plan to continue production, and the price has dropped (is dropping) substantially. They can only build a smartphone/true pda so cheaply. I imagine by mid 2005, we'll see carriers offering the 600 for around $250 or less. Anyone looking for a highly functional smartphone would be happy to pay under $300 for something so versatile. I'm really curious what the next evolutionary step will be - and how long it will take. No doubt they are already in the final developmental stages (well, maybe "no doubt" is a little optimistic!). I sure hope they are reading this forum with some regularity!
    Vince
    From the reports I have read on the 'net the 600 is going to be phased out. Several of the carriers, including Sprint, have apparantly said they won't carry both once the 650 is fully available and their current stocks of 600s are gone. I seriously doubt that P1 can make any money selling the 600 for $250, it is just too complicated of a device to manufacture that cheaply -- although carriers with existing stock may drop the price that low to clear inventory.

    One of the P1 stock reports I saw last week mentioned how the 650 has caused orders for the 600 to drop. Understandible given that both 650 and 600 are going for the same price at Sprint right now.

    Bottom line, 600 and 650 are too close to sell both unless there is a big price difference and I don't think P1 can make money on the 600 at a steep discount.

    That is why they need to come out with a simpler and cheap(er) to make low-end treo
  18. #18  
    Think about this. They had to take pre-orders for the 650, and SHIP it to customers in the last week of November, all just to MEET their estimates for the quarter. What sort of bloodshed would there be if:

    1) they shipped a week earlier and had to include a sizable percentage of returns in Q2?
    2) Sprint said, hey, that Versamail is a POS. Fix it before we put this "BB killer" on shelves
    3) the memory issue had leaked out a few weeks earlier and there were fewer pre-orders

    Earnings would have been around .35-.45, and the stock price would be in the mid-high 20s right how.

    That said, I believe in the popularity and the functionality of the Treo, and think that shareholders will be well rewarded long-term.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by GoodNamesRTaken
    -$9 (approximately 25%) in one day is not a "modest correction" by any interpretation of the word.

    Some people use the word "selloff", "capitulation", "tank", and some other colorful terms.

    Tell anyone who held this stock yesterday that they are riding out a "modest correction" and they will either laugh in your face, or punch you in it (depending on exactly where they bought it).
    Hmm, I didn't laugh when I told myself that. The stock is currently at where it was Nov. 5th or so. That's a month and 12 days. Basically you are no worse off than you were about 1.5 months ago if you bought the stock then. Not exactly a big loss. If you bought it in the last year you are still likely to have doubled your money. That's why it's called a "modest correction."

    If you bought a Beanie Baby for $9 and found that it was worth $200, you'd probably be pretty happy. If it "tanked" to $150, you'd still be very happy.
  20.    #20  
    A 22 % drop for the day, any way you cut it, is no modest correction. % wise it would have equated to a 2350 point drop on the dow, and that is called a crash.
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