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  1.    #1  
    This from a guy who writes a computer article for a Bay Area website.

    What do you guys think?

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl....DTL&type=tech
  2. #2  
    Sounds to me like he's just jealous that he can't afford to pull that particular party trick out.
  3. #3  
    Whenever I am asked what the best (fill in the blank...computer, PDA, smartphone, etc) to buy, my stock answer is: next year's model. No matter what you buy today, tomorrow, next week, next month it will be phased out/obsolete, cheaper, superseded in sbort order. In today's world, you need to be able to select a tool and 'freeze' the technology, appreciate it for what it is and does, and accept that change is inevitable.
  4. #4  
    Yeah I read that article. It sounds like a guy who has never used a convergence device himself! What a moron! How do these self appointed technoogy gurus get their own column anyway?
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  5. #5  
    He's probably had it for 30 years.... grandfathered in...
  6. #6  
    Originally posted by deesugar
    This from a guy who writes a computer article for a Bay Area website.

    What do you guys think?

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl....DTL&type=tech
    Not a whole lot. I don't really see why the author dismisses the convenience of having two appliances in a single device -- this is an enormous advantage!

    And yes, if you get a better cell phone, you wind up with a PDA that has a useless phone (unless you have a GSM phone, in which case you can just swap the SIM card between the two machines and have two phones). So what? The same thing happens if you get a regular cell phone and a better one comes along except that your old cell phone becomes a useless hunk of plastic instead of a PDA. As a drawback, this argument is just plain bizarre.

    And as far as the price argument is concerned, this guy just doesn't know what's out there.
  7. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #7  
    lol, I think he hits it right on the head.

    1. Smartphone has to compete with phone at $250 or less. Otherwise it's an exotic gadget too expensive for common folks. To most people is no killer smartphone apps worth paying extra $300 yet. (not even multimedia or browsing the net)

    2. It has to have all the audio capability the best phone has.

    3. It has to 'look and feel' like a phone. (size, how you make phone call, battery, etc)


    PPC PE, is not a smartphone, It's a wireless PDA. Same thing with the new PPC PE 2k3.
    treo 180-300 is not a smartphone, it's a wireless organizer.

    Both are big, expensive, and have pretty lousy audio feature compared to top of the line Nokia etc. Both try to approach being a phone from PDA/organizer starting point.

    -------

    Is treo 600 a smartphone? not with that price tag and weird looking buttons.

    I am willing to bet any dinky new semi-smart wireless from Motorola or Nokia will beats treo's sale without sweating. What's the big deal about Microsoft smartphone? Well It seriously tries to start with phone price and form factor and see how far it can actually be a usefull PDA. Same goes with Symbian.
  8. #8  
    it sounded to me like he was saying 'right now all technologies are crap and are only for geeks but wait till Microsoft will come out with the next best thing! They'll make it all good!'

    In my opinion Symbian is already pretty smart and phone like. Also here in Germany you'll get a 7650 or a 3650 for about an Euro with activation which makes them also cheap...

    On the other hand I see his critizism: only a very small precentage of the people that own mobile phones across the planet really need the power and functionality any smartphone will offer. So why bother with a smartpone at all if you just want to make a quick phone call...?

    andreas
    treopolis -the German treo site

    Now in beta testing: treopolis 2.0
  9. #9  
    On taste and smell what's there to argue about? This guy-writer (David Einstein) is entitled to his opinion, and I am entitled to disagree with him. Having said that, I hope the T600's price will be lower than the T270 and T300 when they came out. Price IS an issue regardless of how smart a phone or a PDa or a combo phone is.
    Cheers!
    m00se
    I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.
    -Mark Twain
  10. #10  
    PurpleX:

    I've said this many times before but I'll say it again. Palm phones are not targetting regular phone users; they are targeting PDA users. PDA sales have been declining because the market is getting saturated and people aren't changing their PDA's. Palm+Handspring's stated aim is to get PDA users to buy new PDA's because of the convenience conveged devices offer.
  11. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #11  
    Treo sale is declining, and overall POS based phone is also declining. If PDA sale is saturated, sure as heck PDA/organizer phone is dead and winding down.

    If Palm1 is thinking they can soon enough replace the $99 or even the $299 zires with a $600 convergence device, I want to know what they are smoking.

    The problem with PDA not growing is because of price and lack of new killer apps. For eg. why should anybody purchase a $700 PDA that do the same thing as $400 PDA from last year?
  12. #12  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    Treo sale is declining, and overall POS based phone is also declining. If PDA sale is saturated, sure as heck PDA/organizer phone is dead and winding down.

    If Palm1 is thinking they can soon enough replace the $99 or even the $299 zires with a $600 convergence device, I want to know what they are smoking.

    The problem with PDA not growing is because of price and lack of new killer apps. For eg. why should anybody purchase a $700 PDA that do the same thing as $400 PDA from last year?
    The price will be $499.

    The killer app is always on connectivity, full integration with the mobile phone.

    People change their mobile phones more frequently than PDAs. Palm1's aim is to get PDA users to make their next phone purchase a Treo 600+. That seems quite logical to me and a great direction to go.
  13. #13  
    Originally posted by silverado


    The price will be $499.

    The killer app is always on connectivity, full integration with the mobile phone.

    People change their mobile phones more frequently than PDAs. Palm1's aim is to get PDA users to make their next phone purchase a Treo 600+. That seems quite logical to me and a great direction to go.

    Yes ...and I think with service activation the price will even
    be much lower over here in Europe on those 2 years contracts
    as monthly fees will finance + pay back the device like
    it was offered with the Nokia 9x10 ...

    Markus
  14. #14  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    If Palm1 is thinking they can soon enough replace the $99 or even the $299 zires with a $600 convergence device, I want to know what they are smoking.
    I don't think this is their intent. Note that they are introducing new $99 Zires and two other models (I think only one of them is a Zire) expected at the same time as the Treo 600. It may sound odd, but I thinkl the Zire 71 bodes well for the future of Palm's SmartPhone segment (Handspring). It shows that when their back is to the wall, they really can come up with something innovative and cool. No more M505s.
  15. #15  
    Originally posted by silverado
    PurpleX:

    I've said this many times before but I'll say it again. Palm phones are not targetting regular phone users; they are targeting PDA users. PDA sales have been declining because the market is getting saturated and people aren't changing their PDA's. Palm+Handspring's stated aim is to get PDA users to buy new PDA's because of the convenience conveged devices offer.
    I disagree. Handspring is not targeting traditional PDA buyers with the Treo 600. They are targeting the mobile market first and foremost, and specifically the smartphone market which is distinct from PDA's. The reason the PDA market isn't growing is b/c it has matured, not b/c of any deficit and functionality. The PDA market will never surpass 20 million units worldwide as one fantasized and will maintain the 14-15 million units its averaged the last couple years. The exception to this may be in the advent of certian niches like gaming (Tapwave device etc). Thus, it's not like PDA's are going anywhere. There will always be a market for them, but the fact is that market will be vastly miniscule and eclipsed by the larger smartphone segment. In fact many analysts are already predicting that smartphone sales in 2004 will eclipse the total volume of units of pdas! Other studies have predicted that by 2007 smartphones shipments will represent (at min) nearly 5% of all handsets reaching 45 million/year. Sales of smartphones are definitely affecting the PDA industry as that segment stagnates, while in the future the proportion of smartphones of world wide handset sales will continue to rise and eventually become dominant. Thus, it totally makes sense for Handspring to think its better to get 2-3% of the future 300 million smartphone industry than remain #2 in a stagnating PDA industry of only ~14 million sales. Thus I believe when Handspring designed the Treo600, they were thinking of the future mobile/smartphone user first not the traditional PDA user. First of all, there's not that many pda users to target. Secondly, most of the things we ***** about the Treo600 like screen rez are very pda-centric. They're obviously valid and important things, but probably not very over-arching issues for the vast majority of mobile/smartphone users. (What's the average rez of most symbian and M$ smartphone devices? ) Of course, they would like to convince all their former Visor users to switch to the Treo, but the growth is not comng from PDA buyers. The boom in Symbian smartphone devices is a testament to this fact. Thus, I don't know what they guy in the article in the 1st post is talking about. Either he's clueless about the market or ignorant of true state of current devices, but the smartphone segment is anything but "not ready yet"...
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  16. #16  
    gfunkmagic:

    I don't know what you're disagreeing with. To me, you and I are saying the same thing. When I say they are targeting the PDA users, I assume that these users are upcoming smart phone users. My point is that the bulk of that projected smartphone demand will come from people who are currently PDA (and mobile phone) users who will convert to converged devices.

    Mobile phone-only users do not see the need for anything other than a phone (that's why they only own a phone) and will be hard to convince that they need to pay more than the minimal prices they pay for phones. They will comprise a much smaller segment of the smartphone market, at least initially, and they will be slow to convert. Just like they are slow to buy PDAs now (hence, the PDA market is saturated).
  17. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #17  
    Originally posted by silverado

    /////The price will be $499.

    I'll believe it when Handspring says it is $499 without contract. As of now I am having difficult time seeing them selling it lower than $599 without contract.

    ///////The killer app is always on connectivity, full integration with the mobile phone.

    That killer app doesn't worth $200-300 premium, otherphone can do email/SMS/ whatever fully integrated mean at far lower price. The sales number has been obvious since the day of treo 180, people doesn't go crazy over organizer glued to a cellphone for $3-400 bucks premium. Only a gadget freaks and some neurotics corporate guys want to pay for such thing.

    Trim the price and add appealing design and apps, than I believe what you say is true, but not at $4,5 even 600 bucks.

    /////People change their mobile phones more frequently than PDAs. Palm1's aim is to get PDA users to make their next phone purchase a Treo 600+. That seems quite logical to me and a great direction to go.

    Yes, but people don't pay $600 bucks everytime they upgrade. It's $0-199 most of the time.

    Palm has told a put out a lot of 'aim', I believe it when theya ctually do it and the number show. Otherwise it's just another day in Press release land. (anybody still remember how all Palm model suppose to be all wireless by now according to yankowsky? All we got is bunch of tungsten that flop.)
  18. #18  
    Originally posted by silverado
    gfunkmagic:

    I don't know what you're disagreeing with. To me, you and I are saying the same thing. When I say they are targeting the PDA users, I assume that these users are upcoming smart phone users. My point is that the bulk of that projected smartphone demand will come from people who are currently PDA (and mobile phone) users who will convert to converged devices.

    Mobile phone-only users do not see the need for anything other than a phone (that's why they only own a phone) and will be hard to convince that they need to pay more than the minimal prices they pay for phones. They will comprise a much smaller segment of the smartphone market, at least initially, and they will be slow to convert. Just like they are slow to buy PDAs now (hence, the PDA market is saturated).
    I guess my disagreement is with the assestment that Handspring is targetting current PDA users and that the bulk of demand is from this segment. From my experience, the majority of pda users still prefer a two-device solution rather then a single convergence solution. OF course this may change in the future. I think what is more relavant is the fact that most mobile phones will eventually morph into more complicated and smarter devices irrespective and regardless of the pda industry. As a noted above, many analysts are predicting that total smartphone handset sales will eclipse those of pda by next year. That doesn't mean the end of the Pda industy though, pda's will always exist as a niche industry. The point is that people will be buying more smartphones b/c more of the total number of mobile handset devices offered by OEM's will become smartphones. If Handspring is mainly relying on current pda users to purchase the Treo 600, then I'm afraid tey're going to fail. The point should be to target current mobile users who want more fuctionality from their phones and who previously never thought of buying a pda. That is the market Handspring (and now palmone) is targeting.

    Furthermore, the kind of mobile users you're referring to that doesn't "anything other than a phone" is only a anomoly in the NA market. In Europe, ME, Asia, etc... the demand for smarter mobiles is great and the success of Nokia and Symbian is a testament to that. I think Handspring has tried very hard to make the Treo600 more phone-like than pda-like with out sacrificing the functionality of either and I think they've done a pretty decent job all around. Things like the screen rez and size will never appeal to hard core pda users, but they weren't going to by the Treo600 anyway! They would rather get a brick like the T|W, G1000 or myriad of 3" screen "wireless handhelds' that I'm sure Purple-noodle will mention. The point it that this is a very small minority compared to those who want more phone functionality than pda functionality. Do you think alot of PPC users are gonna drop their pda's to buy M$ smartphones with 176 x 220 rez displays? I'm not saying issue like rez should not be improved (the SGH should rectify that), but they are not as important to the average mobile user as it is to the pda user and thus the differring target market. Thus in the end, I don't believe the growth of the smartphone market will be at the expense of the pda market. Of course the initial growth will be at the expense of pdas, but that doesn't mean it will be the demise of it. The truth is that smartphone sales are growing at the expense of traditional mobiles handset...a market of nearly 400 million units...
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  19. #19  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    Originally posted by silverado

    /////The price will be $499.

    I'll believe it when Handspring says it is $499 without contract. As of now I am having difficult time seeing them selling it lower than $599 without contract.

    ///////The killer app is always on connectivity, full integration with the mobile phone.

    That killer app doesn't worth $200-300 premium, otherphone can do email/SMS/ whatever fully integrated mean at far lower price. The sales number has been obvious since the day of treo 180, people doesn't go crazy over organizer glued to a cellphone for $3-400 bucks premium. Only a gadget freaks and some neurotics corporate guys want to pay for such thing.

    Trim the price and add appealing design and apps, than I believe what you say is true, but not at $4,5 even 600 bucks.

    /////People change their mobile phones more frequently than PDAs. Palm1's aim is to get PDA users to make their next phone purchase a Treo 600+. That seems quite logical to me and a great direction to go.

    Yes, but people don't pay $600 bucks everytime they upgrade. It's $0-199 most of the time.

    Palm has told a put out a lot of 'aim', I believe it when theya ctually do it and the number show. Otherwise it's just another day in Press release land. (anybody still remember how all Palm model suppose to be all wireless by now according to yankowsky? All we got is bunch of tungsten that flop.)
    Excuse me, but what is the price of buying an unlocked SPV in NA right now?! $400 bucks minimum? Heck, it's still costs about $350 in the UK right now! How about an unlocked 3650? ~$400 bucks? $300 w/Tmo act? If the Treo600 is priced $400-500 bucks at debut, it will definitely be competitively priced. With in time and with further subsidization, the cost should come down even lower to the sub $300 range just like the Treo300 eventually did.

    Furthermore, who do you think is actually setting the price of these handsets anyway? Its certainly not Handspring, but the wireless providers who control all of the subsidiztion costs as well as distributon channel. Thus in the end, it's not up to Handspring or etc to decide the optimum price for a handset but the provider which have all incentive to price the unit at the most optium and profitable price point...
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