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  1. #61  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    Don't forget the dog food, toilet rolls and kids toys.

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    They can recycle all of their TouchPad ads to use as material to start their toilet roll business.
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  2. #62  
    have you guys seen w8? it's by far the ugliest thing ive ever seen.

    ill go on record and as much as i hate to say that webos will be killed of by the new year.
  3. gbp
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    #63  
    Quote Originally Posted by fixxxer1022 View Post
    have you guys seen w8? it's by far the ugliest thing ive ever seen.

    ill go on record and as much as i hate to say that webos will be killed of by the new year.
    Yup, I would predict it to be the Vista all over.
  4. gbp
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    #64  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    E

    To put that in context, since it's first release, the highest number of global webOS users was estimated to be three million - in a similar period HTC sold four million android phones in the uk alone and samsung sold ten million galaxy S phones.

    I think this generation of OSes has solidified and the next big battle is now a few years off when the next generation arrives.


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    What are you saying ? is it a zero sum game ? or only Android and Apple end up victorious ? There are more and more folks buying tablets.HP can get a piece of this business.
  5. gbp
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    #65  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post

    4) If a company that aspires to be a leader in the cloud and service industries can't come up with a way to monetize a device like the Touchpad, which would be heavily cloud dependent, well...
    I guess that explains why HP is in the mess they are in. No vision, no leadership, no passion. Those are very commonly held opinions about HP by many analysts and other industry insiders, so there is basis for the opinion.

    C
    True

    The entire system is designed based on cloud. I don't remember any phone getting updates from cloud when the Pre was introduced. Me thinks folks running HP are not stupid, there might be a good reason why they did this. Microsoft might be the culprit.
  6. #66  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    What are you saying ? is it a zero sum game ? or only Android and Apple end up victorious ? There are more and more folks buying tablets.HP can get a piece of this business.
    Yes, to use his logic, Microsoft should give up also because they haven't sold that many mobile device either....

    iOS should have gave up versus Blackberry OS.....

    Android should have gave up versus Windows Mobile....

    Windows 95 should have gave up versus UNIX.....

    Great Britain should have gave up versus the Third Reich.....

    The Barbarians should have gave up versus Rome.....
  7. #67  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    I bought my TouchPad at full price and was saving up to buy another one.
    you're the exception.

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    Your Xbox analogy doesn't hold water because when Nintendo and Sony started offering their consoles at a discounted price a long time ago people just like you said that business plan wouldn't work either.
    It holds perfect crystal clear tapped from a Glacier water. The phone market is not remotely analogous to the video game console market, Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo. Phones don't remotely have the revenue streams game consoles do. I've already wrote on this topic so i'll just let you read what i already wrote on the topic:
    Not the same. According to a Businessweek study done buy isuppli Microsoft in 2005 lost $125 on each 360 it sold. Microsoft taking $126 hit per Xbox 360 - News at GameSpot (Notably, almost half of what HP is losing on the TP.) But the big point is Microsoft developed and published it's own highly profitable games through Microsoft Game Studios. Look at what Microsoft is and always has been. Microsoft was flat out a software company already. But not only that it had already been making PC games so this wasn't something totally new. By contrast HP is not a software company. They are a hardware company trying to learn to sell software, and largely enterprise software at that. So they aren't going to just start making great software for consumers all of a sudden. Not saying never but it takes time and vision. And from what i've heard of HP play it's not yet their strong suit.

    The software HP would be making would not nearly cover the loss like Microsoft selling one halo game would cover their xbox loss. One xbox sale probably covers half the xbox 360 loss. One touchpad game sold at say 99 cents to $5 won't remotely cover half the loss. Microsoft was making or publishing "must have games" like Halo. It brought people to the platform. HP has no such app yet that's has been able to do that. Hell i don't think Apple has any single tablet or phone app that means as much to ios as Halo as a franchise meant to xbox and xbox 360. And even so if you look at most of Apple's tablet and phone apps they are part of the OS. They are free. Thus they don't generate revenue other then being one more "feature." Like garageband is free on a ipad isn't it? so that's the market. It would be hard for HP to come in and then try charge every user for every little app. They'd have to be at least be much better then the average app fair. Like does apple charge for final cut or imovie on a tablet? Like something upgraded like that. But Halo was just one of several apps they could profit from.

    You can hardly rely on people to buy apps. Let alone enough to cover losses. I don't buy apps for my pre for varied reasons i won't go into. But even if they do there's no need to. The phone/tablet works ok without them. A 360 is basically useless, especially in 2005 you buy a game. So Microsoft could expect people to buy games. Plus Halo is a Microsoft published franchise and it's massive and like a sequel to a tent-pole movie, it's got return buyers on a regular basis to rely on as profit with every new version of Halo. People won't keep buying new versions of that $5 app. Most will likely expect a free upgrade.

    Microsoft was not struggling financially when they introduced the 360 and had the cash to burn. Microsoft had $35 billion in cash in 2005 and earnings of 1 billion per month. source: Microsoft names Chris Liddell CFO - Computerworld HP i don't think is on similar financial footing. HP as $12.9 billion in cash reserves and just spent $10.25 billion of that on Autonomy Why HP is betting the farm on Autonomy — Tech News and Analysis So it doesn't have tons of cash doing nothing like Microsoft did to float tablet losses. They have just around $2 billion in cash. And add to that theat they, according to the conference call, were losing $332 billion per quarter on webos, and they'd be eating into that cash reserve at an alarming rate. And if you really want to know why HP's stock has been pummeled it's not cause of Webos. That's merely a manifestation of failure. It's because people think its, one, crazy to pay 80% of you're cash reserves on something unknown to most investors just to get your *** kicked by IBM, and second, they think they over paid in paying $10.25 billion. All that coupled with the decision to sever itself from a declining, but still profitable, division and it's largest by revenue division. But i digress the point is HP is not in a situation similar to what Microsoft was in at the time they were launching 360s. HP has had declining profits in their biggest departments in a sour economy so HP lacks the flexibility to just take losses. The unwillingness to carry losing business was flat out mentioned it in May of this year in a memo. “We have absolutely no room for profitless revenue or any discretionary expenditures.” HP CEO Expects 'Tough Third Quarter,' Memo Says - BusinessWeek that was in May when they had no room. Then months later it was true. It was a bad quarter. So they likely have less room for profitless revenue not more. That's exactly what floating a product with a $207 loss is. The very profitless revenue they had no time for.

    Microsoft as a publisher also generates revenue from publishing 1st and 3rd party games. Just a few minor ones like Gears of War and Mass Effect. That sort of stuff is just more revenue. And again you're talking about games that cost a penny disk and a burner to manufacture. After a while it's just lots of profit at $60 a pop.

    Add to that the current revenue streams they didn't have back at launch like selling avatar items, selling game add ons, a cut from other companies selling add ons and map packs, xbox live online gaming subscriptions (which actually were around in 2005 but you get the point), movies, licensing fees from espn, netflix, facebook, twitter just to be on the xbox live panel page, etc and they really can take losses on hardware because they have countless areas to make it back quickly. Hell, they'll make most of the loss back if they sell one $40 xbox live account, a $40 second controller and one $60 game. Right there, $140. Loss erased. And they do that often the very day a console is bought. http://forums.precentral.net/hp-touc...ml#post3119767
    When you buy a phone you don't need to buy a single other thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    HP controls the entire hardware and software distribution channel for the TouchPad. They make money on everything.
    Maybe i'm misunderstanding your point but HP does not make every part in the touchpad hardware. They buy tons of it. They by the screen from LG, processors from Qualcomm, chips from Texas instruments, Cypress Semi, ST Microelectronics, memory from Samsung and San Disk. They aren't making money off that channel. Those guys are selling them to HP and HP is sticking them in touchpads. I mean if all you mean is from plant to retailer fine but that's not the bulk of the cost. Someone has to make the device and the end product has to be profitable to be viable.


    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    How many of us have at least one of those items? Oh, and by the way I have well over $100 in apps and $30 in music that I bought just on my TouchPad alone.
    i have none of those. & again you're the exception. The touchpad cost $318 to build. even if you bought $100 in apps and $30 in music it still doesn't make $99 profitable. And Most people are not spending that much. I've bought no music and 1 app in two years. I don't own a touchstone or single accessory. My mother, brother, his two kids, His wife have bought two phone cases between them. Total. They only use free apps. Apps are great buy they are unlikely to make up the shortfall you're talking about with $99 or even $200 devices.

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    So Amazon can sell their tablets at a lost (which they still do even with the low specs) and still make money off the content and services yet HP can't do the same thing? Even with the much larger screen we are talking about less than $100 between the cost of the two. Why can't HP sale the TouchPad at a $50-70 loss per unit and recoup the cost the same way Amazon is doing?
    Yes. Because HP doesn't really have nearly as deep a content store like Amazon does. According to isupply the Kindle fire costs 209.63 to build and they sell it for $199. so they lose only $10.63 on each device. They make that back on one book. The top kindle book now is 7.19 Pearl of China. The second most popular kindle book is the Steve Jobs book at $17.99. Amazon is likely to make it's $10 back soon after sale. No guarantee for a touchpad. Amazon is still a book store trying to remain relevant when the future gets digital. Kindle is a distribution platform. They are trying not to get usurped by apple like apple did to music with itunes. HP is not a book distribution channel. HP's not a book store and doesn't sell books. So any touchpad doesn't have that revenue stream. Kindle Fire is an ereader. Most people buy it to read books. They basically have to buy books just like people that buy an xbox have to buy games. Nobody, has to buy anything for just a tablet like an ipad or a touchpad that's remotely as expensive as books. I've bought only one app for my pre minus. Kindles are neutered tablets aimed at different markets then the touchpad and ipad. It's largely for people that primarily want to read books. the other stuff is a bonus. But add to that They make money off the movies and music they sell.

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    The TouchPad already has a Kindle books app, movie store, music store, magazine store (Zinio, yeah!), and app store.
    Having an app on the touchpad doesn't mean you make money off of the things sold on the app. It's amazon making money on the kindle app, mp3s, videos etc. not HP. And even if they are lucky enough to negotiate a cut of sales it's much much smaller then Amazon's on it's own app. So you'd be trying to rely on a much much smaller profit number then Amazon would. You can't seriously think that HP makes the same off selling books through an amazon app then Amazon makes off selling e-books, mp3s, videos. And as i said before most people are not going to buy enough apps to make up hundreds of dollars in a loss you're suggesting they take on each device.
    You come at the king. You best not miss.
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  8. cgk
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    #68  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    What are you saying ? is it a zero sum game ? or only Android and Apple end up victorious ? There are more and more folks buying tablets.HP can get a piece of this business.
    No something a bit more nuanced than that - tech runs in generations, symbian and blackberry (I forgot the name of the OS) were the winners of the last generation, Ios and android have won this generation, something will come along that beats them or at least is competitive with them but it's not going to be webOS as it is one of the losers of this generation. It's big problem is that it is now so far (because nobody is making hardware) behind that it can't even compete for third or fourth place and every week there is no hardware or announcement of hardware the less likely it is that anyone will be interested in licensing it.

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    Last edited by CGK; 11/04/2011 at 04:10 AM.
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  9. cgk
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    #69  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    Yes, to use his logic, Microsoft should give up also because they haven't sold that many mobile device either....

    iOS should have gave up versus Blackberry OS.....

    Android should have gave up versus Windows Mobile....

    Windows 95 should have gave up versus UNIX.....

    Great Britain should have gave up versus the Third Reich.....

    The Barbarians should have gave up versus Rome.....
    Since that was never my logic I suggest you send back the mindreading machine as it seems to be faulty.

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  10. #70  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    Since that was never my logic I suggest you send back the mindreading machine as it seems to be faulty.

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    It's hard to figure out another person's logic unless you know how their mind works. What you wrote implied that since the task was too great, why bother? The BlackBerry's OS is called BBOS (BlackBerry OS) BTW.
  11. #71  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I have a sinking feeling someone is going to ask "well, why doesn't HP just use their size and scale to sell books, movies, and music directly?"
    A year ago, I would make such stupid question-statement
  12. #72  
    @SnotBoogie

    I'm not going to quote your entire post, just make some key points. First, we have had this discussion on PreCentral since HP dropped the price on the TouchPad that I assumed you were read into previous comments. Everyone here, to include me, knows that HP is taking a loss of at least $150 on each TouchPad. HP's projected loss for the last production run was supposed to be close to $100 million. I suggested in a thread I started at the beginning of the fire sale that HP produce at least 4 more runs of TouchPads at the reduced price and take a $500 million dollar lose. It would take a long time (over several product lines) to recoup those loses, but it would be worth it in the long run to produce a solid user base and grow the webOS brand.

    It took Microsoft two product lines, raising prices on games, lowering the cost of manufacturing, and over 9 years to finally turn a profit on their gaming division. No one knows the total amount of money they lost in the process but I bet it is more than $500 million. By 2009, 8 years after the division's birth, it was estimated that they lost a total of $7 billion. Heck, they posted a total loss of over $1.9 billion in 2007 alone.

    Microsoft’s XBox Group Still Operates at a Loss, XBox Director Quits | Techrights
    Heavy Losses for Microsoft's Entertainment Division: News from 1UP.com

    It cost well over $5 million to produce a console video game and the Xbox only averages 8.8 games sold per console.

    Top video games may soon cost more - Technology & science - Games - Tom Loftus - msnbc.com
    Microsoft's video game business turns a profit | VentureBeat

    My bottom line with this is that HP's losses on the TouchPad to gain market share would be way less than Microsoft's loses on the Xbox to gain market share, yet everyone sees Microsoft's move as a more viable business option? I don't understand that at all.

    The Autonomy buy was completely stupid. They thought it was more viable to spend $10 billion in cash up front to compete in a market with more established players that doesn't threaten their core business than spend another $1-2 billion to gain a foothold in a market (mobile) that does threatens their core business? How long would it have taken to return to profitability on that $10 billion buy plus the cost of establishing the HP brand in that market? Still longer than it would have taken to absorb the cost of making webOS a major player in the mobile market.

    The Windows Tablet move is stupid in that it doesn't help HP as much as it helps Microsoft.
  13. #73  
    Quote Originally Posted by chalx View Post
    A year ago, I would make such stupid question-statement
    Apple is doing just that, BTW.
  14. #74  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    Apple is doing just that, BTW.
    A year ago I was delusional thinking how HP has same scale and reach combined with same vision. So,so stupid.
  15. #75  
    Quote Originally Posted by chalx View Post
    A year ago I was delusional thinking how HP has same scale and reach combined with same vision. So,so stupid.
    I, unfortunately, hoped for the same thing.
  16. gbp
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    #76  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    No something a bit more nuanced than that - tech runs in generations, symbian and blackberry (I forgot the name of the OS) were the winners of the last generation, Ios and android have won this generation,
    So you are saying iOS and Android won the race already and the rest of them ( including Microsoft) wait for next 10 years for their turn ?


    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    something will come along that beats them or at least is competitive with them but it's not going to be webOS as it is one of the losers of this generation.
    webOS was as competitive as anything out there sans the performance. Which can be fixed.
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    It's big problem is that it is now so far (because nobody is making hardware) behind that it can't even compete for third or fourth place and every week there is no hardware or announcement of hardware the less likely it is that anyone will be interested in licensing it.

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    That I agree, HP should realize that they have a goldmine in webOS software. If they don't put the effort then its a loss for them.Building a complete mobile OS is not easy.
  17. #77  
    Quote Originally Posted by chalx View Post
    A year ago I was delusional thinking how HP has same scale and reach combined with same vision. So,so stupid.
    I thought the same thing. I think Apple is successful because it has a clear vision and it doesn't let outside influences effect it's vision. The iPod was a gamble, the iPhone was a gamble, the iPad was a gambe, but they paid off big in the end. HP,s "marathon" statements led me to believe they had a vision. I was so wrong on that.
  18. #78  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    So you are saying iOS and Android won the race already and the rest of them ( including Microsoft) wait for next 10 years for their turn ?
    @CGK

    See I'm not the only one who thought this about your statement.
  19. gbp
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    #79  
    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post

    My bottom line with this is that HP's losses on the TouchPad to gain market share would be way less than Microsoft's loses on the Xbox to gain market share, yet everyone sees Microsoft's move as a more viable business option? I don't understand that at all.
    Agree 100%, the only difference is Microsoft had more cash than HP.

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    The Autonomy buy was completely stupid. They thought it was more viable to spend $10 billion in cash up front to compete in a market with more established players that doesn't threaten their core business than spend another $1-2 billion to gain a foothold in a market (mobile) that does threatens their core business? How long would it have taken to return to profitability on that $10 billion buy plus the cost of establishing the HP brand in that market? Still longer than it would have taken to absorb the cost of making webOS a major player in the mobile market.
    Talk about overpaying. Ask Ellison and Mark Hurd about it. They are still giggling

    Quote Originally Posted by k4ever View Post
    The Windows Tablet move is stupid in that it doesn't help HP as much as it helps Microsoft.
    Very true, it will help Microsoft more than HP. What HP should realize is Microsoft is desperate for mobile market.
  20. cgk
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    #80  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    So you are saying iOS and Android won the race already and the rest of them ( including Microsoft) wait for next 10 years for their turn ?
    With the way cycle times are increasing, it is not likely to be that longer maybe 3-4 years. The big question left this generation is who will be 3rd or 4th - WebOS isn't a bright new prospect anymore it's been around for three years now with very limited impact and currently has no hardware base - can't see how it can come back at this stage especially given the current vagueness about its future. Lots harder the second time around to convince premium developers and partners to give your sales bomb another chance.

    Who wants to stand behind a platform where it's owners are busy making vague statements about "assessing value" while at the same time taking every opportunity to talk about the big plans for windows 8?

    And let's face it, we can talk all day about how HP could do x, y, and x but the current reality is that they don't make WebOS hardware.


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    Last edited by CGK; 11/04/2011 at 10:25 AM.
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