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  1. #21  
    After reading the OP I got all fired and ready to put him in his place. Thanks everybody for doing it for me. The dream might be over, or soon to end, but not due to the reasoning found here. Either way I'll have a pair of webOS devices for awhile, and like Rod has been saying: They work the same today as they did two days ago...
  2. #22  
    except the tp make develop cracks by the speakers.

    wish there was a way to avoid that
  3. #24  
    Hi, new guy here & obviously new Touchpad owner.

    I agree with the OP. There is no consipiracy or creative marketing/advertising play here as suggested by some.

    HP made material announcements that affects investors on Thursday. Their announcement and guidance gave them a 20% drop in valuation the next day. I know 2 people who's entire retirement savings got a large chunk wiped off. My cousin, who is a high level exec @HP, is currently fearing the end of her career (20 years with HP). Tons of people in Silicon Valley are sleepless.

    If this was some master genius marketing plan for webOS, expect some lawsuits concerning the "truth" of those material statements made by HP on Thursday.
  4. #25  
    Assuming they will sell a total of 2million devices. I heard this number quoted somewhere, but have no idea if it's close to the truth. I would estimate that they make $200 to $300 loss on each unit sold at the $99 firesale price. I make that a $200 to $300 million loss. Compare that to the $1.2billion they spent on Palm, the $2.4billion they spent on 3PAR or the $10billion for Autonomy and you can see that while not great for HP they can afford to swallow it.

    The question of whether all this is somehow good for webOS really depends on what comes next. If some white knight like HTC or Samsung then it probably all depends on timescales involved. If they were to release a device next week, then I think they would be pretty ****ed that the market had been saturated with cheap HP tablets and phones. If they need some months to bring something to market, then I think they would consider it good that lots of people out there seen using it. Think how many times you see people on the train or somewhere using a iPad or kindle, this is all good for mindshare. The other key factor is keeping developers interested. They will no doubt see current app sales rocket for the coming month, but that wont make them invest in new apps or bring new developers to the fold, who want to see a long term future. Developers need to know what HPs plans are soon. Assuming some form of announcement comes in the next few week, I think things should be OK.

    Note there's loads of if's and but's in this. It's all pretty high risk stuff. Hp's track record makes me highly skeptical that any of this could ever happen, but I don't think it's unreasonable for people to have hope.
    kkhanmd likes this.
  5. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by sinsin07 View Post
    I accounted for exactly that with "shipment/sales". Are you alluding that there are 1.4m Touchpads sold?
    There don't need to have been 1.4M Touchpads sold to be #2 if you're talking about unit sales to customers for a specific quarter.

    It's estimated HP has already sold 350,000 TP's during the fire sale:
    HP has sold 350,000 TouchPads this weekend - AfterDawn

    This doesn't even yet count the bulk of the 250k that Best Buy was sitting on and will be burning through starting tomorrow.

    ...and we really have no idea on the total number of tablets produced.

    So, yes, I do think it is inside the realms of possibility that the TP could be the #2 seller for the current quarter. I would imagine these sales will dampen enthusiasm (even further) for Android tablets currently, as well.
  6. #27  
    If it were just a matter of selling the Touchpad at a loss, spending $100M to heavily discount them wouldn't be all that crazy (dumping regulations notwithstanding). The original Droid marketing campaign was reportedly around $100M.

    But HP discontinuing the Touchpad with no replacement on the horizon pretty much kills that idea. You can't market a product that users can no longer buy after Monday or Tuesday when it inevitably sells out.

    If HP had said "we're finding someone else to build our tablets" that might have been OK. Instead, they said it was over and then later followed up with some vague comments that webOS might still be developed. But it might just be on a printer for all we know. The world's most intuitive printer/copier interface. Not exactly encouraging for developers.

    If webOS is going to build a cult following out of this cheap tablet bonanza, HP is going to have to follow up with decisive steps to indicate in actions, not just words, that it's committed to future webOS tablets and smartphones, made by *somebody*. Killing the Pre 3 after it was already designed, implemented, tested, built, and shipped (in Europe at least) is not a good sign of that.
  7. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by jtfolden View Post
    There don't need to have been 1.4M Touchpads sold to be #2 if you're talking about unit sales to customers for a specific quarter.

    It's estimated HP has already sold 350,000 TP's during the fire sale:
    HP has sold 350,000 TouchPads this weekend - AfterDawn

    This doesn't even yet count the bulk of the 250k that Best Buy was sitting on and will be burning through starting tomorrow.

    ...and we really have no idea on the total number of tablets produced.

    So, yes, I do think it is inside the realms of possibility that the TP could be the #2 seller for the current quarter. I would imagine these sales will dampen enthusiasm (even further) for Android tablets currently, as well.
    Sorry. I misunderstood. It seemed like to me you were saying # 2 in market-share for units sold to date. If you are just talking sales per quarter, so what. The street is not that stupid, they will see it for what it is, an artificial number due to the fire-sale. It's not sustainable.

    Yes it may dampen enthusiasm for other tablets, but again, so what. It's temporary. When people get home and see the limited app selection (if they are even interested in apps) or see iPad commercials on TV with cool apps doing cool things, or compare it to their friends tablets and the cool apps they have, it will probably wind up being a super cool digital picture frame.

    I will just wait an see what is in store in two weeks, if HP can manage to keep this promise, to see what HP will announce as the future of webos. All these flights of fancy mean nothing without a clear path.
    Last edited by sinsin07; 08/21/2011 at 05:09 AM.
  8. cgk
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    #29  
    It actually makes it harder to licence because now it's impossible to profile the customer base and work out what they are worth - how many people in that number are actually interested in WebOS and how many are just cheap freeloaders (like me) who will not spend a button in a ecosystem?

    You can't even work out how many are even interested in buying a tablet with any OS on it - that's the problem with a fire-sale, you no longer have any clue who the user base is.

    All anyone like that Samsung will see is that it HP took a loss of upwards of $200 per user and an overall lose that might be in the billions and that it's impossible to work out how many of them will stick around or what they will spend.

    I think it's more likely that it's sold off for the patents (which in the current climate where the value is) than because someone wants to push out hardware.
  9. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by Beanis View Post
    who cares if HP makes money on the touchpad? That isn't the point.
    HP Shareholders probably care.
  10.    #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonpossible View Post
    As some of the others have put it, selling off all remaining inventory boosts market share like crazy. One of two things could happen... one of them being improbable. HP retracts their decision and continues on, now with a larger market share as well as an increased mindshare. Two: Larger user-base makes it an attractive sell-off to a suitor.
    Any way you currently look at it, a recent poll showed the Touchpad as the number two tablet behind iOS, Android doesn't count because their fragmentation splits up their Tab sales, and again, after the "fire sale" they'll definitely be number 2 in marketshare. I don't doubt that they'll sell completely out of the tablet... it's cheaper than most e-readers and will function as one.

    I for one am very interested to see whats going to happen in the coming weeks.
    You're right, it is improbable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beanis View Post
    who cares if HP makes money on the touchpad? That isn't the point. Web's now has a MUCH larger user base, which makes webOS more valuable and much more likely to stick around.
    It's not that much larger. And HP is promising not to increase the user base. By discontinuing all webOS products.
  11. #32  
    The firesale is not going to help HP - it costs them tons of money to get rid of all the inventory. And then it costs the spin-off still money because all these new customers still will call with questions and warranty problems, etc...

    For devs it's more complicated. On the whole they will all drop development for the platform. But those who already have apps in the catalog will see a short-term spike - possibly beyond any expectation as so many units sell in such a short time.
    But after the spike the income will drop like a stone - as there won't be any fresh customers.

    Even if Samsung or HTC take over the platform and even if they get off to a running start and introduce new webos devices in time for xmas (quite a stretch) that will be yet another break in sales for months - just what devs were hoping would be over now. It throws back webos another 6-months - at least.
    Pre -> Pre3 & TP32 -> Nexus 5
  12. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    HP Shareholders probably care.
    It is clear that no one cares about HP shareholders. Not even their CEO.
  13. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by printrenori View Post
    Right, they mismanaged the webOS, as in they couldn't have managed to make it become profitable. And if the tenth largest company in the world couldn't even come somewhat close to breaking even with it, who's going to want to take the risk and try it again?
    No, again wrong.

    HP mismanaged WebOS and THEREFORE it became unprofitable.

    Mismanagement = unprofitable OS != could not have made it profitable.

    You are contradicting yourself.

    Thats like saying "I didnt study for math class, therefore I failed my math exam. Therefore, if I had studied, I would have failed the math exam."


    HP killed WebOS. WebOS did not kill HP.
  14. #35  
    I'm really quite bored with all the speculation... I will continue to use my Pre 2 and TouchPad for the time being. I will wait and see what comes of this mess. I have to wait for new WP7 Mango devices to be announced anyways lol! By that time maybe HP will make some sort of licensing announcement, or maybe not. Either way works out for me. I still enjoy my webOS hardware the same now as I did the day before the HP's announcement.
    un_designer likes this.
  15. #36  
    It's all stupid, useless speculation by people who hate webOS and desperately want it to die so they can point fingers and gloat on one hand, and people who love webOS and desperately want it to survive so they can keep using it (as well as point fingers and gloat) on the other hand UNTIL we have an announcement that yes, Companies A, B, C and D are going to be the new webOS OEMs *or* an announcement that after 'exploring all options' HP ceases all webOS operations.

    Despite how terrible the announcement sounded, HP is merely stopping webOS hardware, which isn't greatly surprising because they intend on stopping ALL hardware.
    OEMs realize this, even if you don't.
    All this bickering is gonna get yall nowhere. What we can do now is buy cheap touchpads and wait until we actually know what's gonna happen.

    Voice of reason out. Back to your scheduled heated, martial fangirl rhetoric.
  16. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by printrenori View Post
    I've been seeing a lot of posts around here arguing that the major price cuts to the TouchPads will really somehow benefit HP, or the webOS, or developers, or something. This simply isn't true. Here's why:

    Let's assume that by selling a 16GB TouchPad for $400, HP is breaking even, so its not making a profit but not losing money. (It is losing money, but let's be generous to HP and assume its not for this example.) Cutting the price to $100 obviously means that HP loses $300 with each tablet. So how can it make this money back? Well with app sales, of course! But how much would a tablet owner need to spend for HP to recuperate the loss? Well assuming that HP takes a 30% cut from every app sale, and perhaps 20% of that goes to maintaining the app store, they can use 10% from every app sale to recuperate. Well they need $300. And $300 is 10% of what number? Three thousand dollars. That's how much the average HP TouchPad owner would need to spend at HP's app store for HP to break even again.

    Obviously, my math here is pretty fuzzy. But I'm sure you get the gist. HP is getting rid of their last tablets. They're not going to make more tablets at the new low prices. And unless shareholder value is soo yesterday to HP, they won't plan on it either.
    Looking at your join date it looks like your new. Welcome to webOS and prcentral.

    Regarding your statements above..Developers, webOS and consumers all gain vastly from the Fire Sales. Either HP allows retailers to return their merchandise, or it is sold at a loss. Selling it at a loss does however gets the devices and webOS into consumers hands that would have never tried it in the first place. How is that a bad thing?

    Furthermore, its a way to advertise the software with out spending money on print or commercials. Remember HP is no longer going to support the hardware side. Thats what we now. webOS on the other-hand is still alive with a much larger user base as of today. This keeps the brand somewhat valuable for potential suiters.

    i am not stating webOS is going to be supported in the long run. But for now it is, and with a larger user base.

    This community along with webOS Internals and Homebrew are the backbone. And the passion put into webOS will continue to thrive through thick and thin. Stay around awhile and see for yourself. And must of all enjoy!
  17. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by ScubaKitty View Post
    except the tp make develop cracks by the speakers.

    wish there was a way to avoid that
    I have had my TP sense day one and it is spotless.
  18. #39  
    Quote Originally Posted by ariker01 View Post
    I have had my TP sense day one and it is spotless.
    It's PreCentral. You'll always find people tossing their devices around, sitting on them, and then blaming the devices for breaking (because Palm/HP suck)

    On the other hand, I do think that's marginally better than Apple forums, where you'll always find people babying their devices, putting them in expensive covers, and then blaming themselves for breaking them (because Apple is without fault)
  19. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by ScubaKitty View Post
    except the tp make develop cracks by the speakers.
    Cyanoacrilate (Superglue) and a toothpick do a good repair job.

    That plastic shell is thin and should be reinforced around the speakers. I cracked mine catching it sliding out of its case (thank the deities it didn't hit the street!). In 30-some-odd years of working with all kinds of electronic equipment, that's the first time I cracked a case.
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