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  1.    #1  
    I figured I post this up, since this was a thought in my mind for a while now. Seeing now nokia stated the same, I figured I'd asked us fellow Webos users the same question. Do you think with the oversaturating of the cell phone market, that android is doing will come to a end? I believe with just shoving products, from a half of dozen or more manufacturers down the throats of the consumer every couple of months will soon come to an end. I think even if the economy returns to top form, how many people will continue to buy in the middle of their contract to essential get the same phone, just a different form, body, or from a different maker. I see sooner or later the insider competiton between HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and other companies using this free OS, will soon start to see sales plumit. I believe it will happen sooner then later, with the choices of devices become more and more similiar every new launch from one of these companies. Even look at the Googles Nexus S, its essentially a Galaxy S(or one of its variants), so why in the world would you pick up the same device just to get a curved chin? what do you think people, do you think phones from these companies will start collecting dust, because its just too many options of the same phone, just from different makers? let me know your thoughts on it? meanwhile heres what Nokia had to say about it....


    This quote completely came out of left field and smacked me in the face this morning. Nokia’s Anssi Vanjoki – speaking with Financial Times – states that they aren’t going the Android route because it’s more like being a Finnish boy that pees in his pants to stay warm throughout the winter. It’s easy to just extract that quote and call it a day, but what he means is that using Android as a short-term boost isn’t the best course of action as it won’t sustain over a longer period of time.

    His thoughts came as a response to the now-age-old question regarding why Nokia hasn’t adopted Android with his argument essentially being that the market is over-saturated as it is and that manufacturers would be stinting growth in the long run since it’ll be hard for consumers to find meaningful differences from one piece of hardware to another. That would be a sensible conclusion, but I’m guessing HTC’s, Motorola’s, and Samsung’s amazing performance since going all out with Android isn’t being counted here.


    Nokia: Going the Android Route is like Peeing in your Pants for Warmth Android Phone Fans

    http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/21/c...id-is-like-pe/
    Last edited by wellwellwell11; 12/11/2010 at 02:30 PM.
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    I think even if the economy returns to top form, how many people will continue to buy in the middle of their contract to essential get the same phone, just a different form, body, or from a different maker.
    Who's doing that?
  3.    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    Who's doing that?
    considering the adoption of feature phones converting to smartphones hasent change a whole lot at all in the last 2 years, and not just random post from people, but people i know do alot. I assume since usually a contract is a 2yr one, most people are jumping inbetween their contracts to get the latest and greatest.

    Answer the question, not pick apart things that are clearly opinions.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    considering the adoption of feature phones converting to smartphones hasent change a whole lot at all in the last 2 years, and not just random post from people, but people i know do alot. I assume since usually a contract is a 2yr one, most people are jumping inbetween their contracts to get the latest and greatest.

    Answer the question, not pick apart things that are clearly opinions.
    I'm trying to but I'm a little confused by your premise. Are you saying you attribute the staggering growth of Android to people upgrading to newer models at unsubsidized prices?
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I'm trying to but I'm a little confused by your premise. Are you saying you attribute the staggering growth of Android to people upgrading to newer models at unsubsidized prices?
    what do you think people, do you think phones from these companies will start collecting dust, because its just too many options of the same phone, just from different makers? let me know your thoughts on it?

    so basicly im asking (like what the NOKIA rep thinks) do you think Android will faze itself out, because it is offering too many phones, from too many manufacturers, that are pretty much identical?

    essentially being that the market is over-saturated as it is and that manufacturers would be stinting growth in the long run since it’ll be hard for consumers to find meaningful differences from one piece of hardware to another.

    do you think this will be the case, in the long run?
  6. #6  
    I think the guy from Nokia is on crack and his position is that of a company rapidly losing relevance in a market they once dominated.
  7.    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I think the guy from Nokia is on crack and his position is that of a company rapidly losing relevance in a market they once dominated.
    ok thank you for that, and I was thinking the same in a sense by stating so it will try to throw a thorn in Googles roses. Though he makes a good point.
  8. #8  
    He doesn't make a good point though. Android doesn't magically get diluted by being available on a wide variety of hardware. Android doesn't somehow get worse by becoming more popular. I really think his quote is some backwards way of justifying his company's diminishing presence in this arena.
  9.    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    He doesn't make a good point though. Android doesn't magically get diluted by being available on a wide variety of hardware. Android doesn't somehow get worse by becoming more popular. I really think his quote is some backwards way of justifying his company's diminishing presence in this arena.
    I feel you in what your saying, and maybe his intent was to justify his companys lime light at the moment. Though other anyalist have stated so too, I mostly picked Nokias quote for it being the most recent, and from a major company who even if we dont like Nokia out sells any other company by the millions. Though if you think about how many high end slab phones can you make in a 6 month period, that use the latest technology, on every carrier, from a half dozen manufacturers? To me someone has to get greedy after awhile, even samsung offered Google to make their flagship phone, and in tern made google turn down HTC this time. These major companys are profitable in the smartphone relm because of Google right now, though they know their competitons not with Apple, or wp7, or even nokia its with each other. Soon customers those that either are still upgrading early, or coming from feature phones, or to phones all together, will either not know the difference between the same options by different manufactuers, either just pick a phone like the iphone, or WP7 that just have 1 form of each, or only one manufacturer will really start to sell leaving the others with excess phones on the shelves as overstock.
  10. #10  
    I disagree. Look at laptops. They all look virtually the same, they all run Windows. The only difference is hardware specs. Apple or Linux still hasn't overtaken MS, and normal consumers don't care. They want something that works, and has every program available for it. This is the case with Android in my opinion, as much as I hate it. And once Matias has his way with the OS, it could just be kinda nice. He is already ditching the physical buttons. I do hope they all collect dust and catch fire, however!
    - Jeff
    Palm Pre- and a 32 GB TouchPad.
  11. #11  
    I read somewhere that there are over 175 Android phones out now...they can't all be a ringing successes selling 3,4,5, 10 million!

    so there will be some type of consolidation in the Android market with the cream rising to the top as the public gradually becomes more knowledgeable about these phones features and capabilities...
  12. #12  
    There is a very legitimate point to the critique. Without a doubt, Android has boomed in the last year. However, it's also been the beneficiary of a huge marketing push and sluggish competition. Moreover, every time someone has tried a similar strategy (licensing an OS to multiple device manufacturers) in the handheld/smartphone space, it has resulted in a short, spectacular boom followed by a bust. It seems the inevitable fracturing of the market as each manufacturer tweaks things and you end up with devices running several iterations of the OS ultimately becomes unwieldy and frustrating for consumers. So, the question is, can Google avoid the same fate. Yes, they've had incredible success this year, but what will the space look like 2-3 years out, or 3-5 years out? It's not unreasonable to see the Android collapsing under the weight of managing what has made it so successful, the deluge of options from myriad manufacturers. Not saying it will happen, just saying that the strategy Google has chosen can quickly become a nightmare to administer and if you (as Nokia's head) see that as a distinct possibility, why would you want to jump in that pool?

    Gargoyle
  13. #13  
    I don't see android slowing down anytime soon. I believe the Nokia rep said those things because he wants to down-talk the competition. Like it was said earlier, the vast majority of laptops and desktops all run a variation of windows. Apple and Linux are not even close to catching up.

    as for the fragmented OS, that's what happens. Old hardware that can't handle the new and improved software gets phased out. This doesn't discourage the consumer and make them go buy a mac, instead, they just go buy a newer PC.

    Android will become the dominant OS, and manufactures are going to keep pushing the hardware envelope to have an edge on the rest of the market.

    And you're just ridiculous if you think the average consumer upgrading to a smartphone is going to go with WP7 over Android. The average consumer who doesn't really know (or care) about all the phone specs is looking for a couple things; 1. Cool design 2. APPS! Android has 100,000+, WP7 has 3000... Not even a contest.

    And because Android is offered on every major carrier (no other OS does this) with a variety of different handset styles, they are not going to run into trouble any time soon, if ever.

    So to answer your question outright; no, Android is not going to fail.

    P.S. Your argument about all the phones being the same is ridiculous. If anything, Android offers some of the most diverse handsets available. They differ from screen sizes, resolutions, keyboards, etc...

    And if you do walk that road saying they are all the same phone with minor differences, then you can make that argument for all phones. All slates look the same, all landscape qwerty's look the same... You get my point?

    And after all that I just want it to be known that I'm webOS all the way! I'm keeping my crappy Sprint Pre till either HPalm offers up something with better hardware, or till I can't find a Pre on Craigslist anymore. I hate the hardware, but webOS is amazing and I don't wanna move on to anything else.

    It's like an abusive relationship; I just can't leave :-/

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