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  1. #61  
    if they want to make the holiday season they are going to announce something this week or early oct. btw
  2. #62  
    The Windows phone is getting mjor marketing now because Microsoft is not worried about an announcement shutting down sales of devices in inventory. If the inventory of all the webOS phones was nearing depletion, Palm would be hyping up the next devices to get people to wait for them. If they start promoting new hardware now, they'd have to eat most of the remaining inventory.
  3. #63  
    I'm guessing the holiday season, so sometime around/after Thanksgiving.
  4. #64  
    Quote Originally Posted by mofishmgr View Post
    The Windows phone is getting mjor marketing now because Microsoft is not worried about an announcement shutting down sales of devices in inventory. If the inventory of all the webOS phones was nearing depletion, Palm would be hyping up the next devices to get people to wait for them. If they start promoting new hardware now, they'd have to eat most of the remaining inventory.
    That is a great point, I wouldn't have thought of that.
  5. #65  
    As soon as Flash is released for webOS.
  6. #66  
    Quote Originally Posted by QuarlesLT View Post
    As soon as Flash is released for webOS.
    LOL.
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    #67  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    There's a reason Microsoft is allowing so much pre-release access to WP7 and its apps: It builds confidence and buzz.
    I guess I learn something every day. You see I thought it was to make the disappointment that much more each time they delay the product. If you read any of the financial community's take on the MS strategy combined w/their recent announcements of delay on Sprint & Verizon, you will find they are doing anything but installing confidence in the product or their company.

    If the device ends up being killer, this won't matter, but building up expectations before you disappoint is not the way to go. Just look at the 787 Dreamliner & Boeing...
  8. #68  
    Has HP really ever conducted a big "wow" campaign before. I just don't remember them pushing a product line in a big way on TV or in print.
  9. #69  
    CES JAN 2011, thats my date.
  10. #70  
    for me the earlist late novemeber, early decemeber. I think with my connects stating an annoucment by nov for a new device for sprint, I see them hush hush until then. Like one said above yes too early an announcment if the products not ready yet will hurt sales, they just released the pre and pixi on AT&T, as well as I think people are buying the pre and pixi on other networks abit just knowing that webos will not be going anywhere, and right now you can get each device fairly cheap. I myself am selling them on the side between 80 and 150 both pre and pixi on all networks except AT&T. The latest I think CES, but to me I really dont think they will wait that long, I think if the only reason they would is if the device is not fully ready by the holiday season.
  11. #71  
    Quote Originally Posted by finngirl View Post
    Because 4 -5 months ago, when those new phones should have been in production, Palm had no money and was looking for a buyer?
    That would be an interesting factoid if it wasn't for the fact that Palm had half a billion in cash on hand, and that they just launched on AT&T. The fact that their market share remained the same percentage in a growing smartphone market, means they gained more users. Pretty much blows your theory out of the water. Especially when you consider HP could have given then the funds to pump out 100's of thousands of phones during the months between then and now.
  12. #72  
    Quote Originally Posted by falconrap View Post
    That would be an interesting factoid if it wasn't for the fact that Palm had half a billion in cash on hand, and that they just launched on AT&T. The fact that their market share remained the same percentage in a growing smartphone market, means they gained more users. Pretty much blows your theory out of the water. Especially when you consider HP could have given then the funds to pump out 100's of thousands of phones during the months between then and now.
    No, not a fact, I'm afraid. Not only was Palm's cash on hand prior to sale overinflated due to some expenses being deferred into the next quarter, but they also had $400 million of bank debt lingering.

    As for the marketshare water treading that people here are trumpeting, you have to realize that not only were the devices devalued to virtually nothing, but HP started paying people with gift cards to sign up for contracts as soon as they could throw them in their store. This isn't a flow of new revenue in the coffers. This is the selling off of devices that have mostly been paid for already at fire sale prices.
  13. #73  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    No, not a fact, I'm afraid. Not only was Palm's cash on hand prior to sale overinflated due to some expenses being deferred into the next quarter, but they also had $400 million of bank debt lingering.

    As for the marketshare water treading that people here are trumpeting, you have to realize that not only were the devices devalued to virtually nothing, but HP started paying people with gift cards to sign up for contracts as soon as they could throw them in their store. This isn't a flow of new revenue in the coffers. This is the selling off of devices that have mostly been paid for already at fire sale prices.
    Your talking, but all I here is blah, blah, blah. If debt determined a company's fate, AMD would have been down the toilet and bankrupt nearly a decade ago. Debt means very little unless it's at an unhealthy level. In business, cash flow is king. If you have $500 million in cash, and you have an income source, you can keep making phones.

    As for you other statement about coupons, devaluing, and what not, it seems to me a little Econ 101 is order for some folks around here. HP made offers to sweeten the pot and move phones to 1) sell off inventory and 2) generate more WebOS users (future users of upcoming Palm products). The price of the phone to users has only a loose tie-in to the amount of money Palm gets for these phones as the carriers order them from Palm for a certain amount of money. Then they are resold (hence the term resale). Offering the phone for free impacts the profit margins of the carrier more than anything else. Helping the sell through pick up is something I'm sure will help HP/Palm's relationships with the carriers.


    Not too mention that we don't know what Palm looked like in the second quarter because they got bought out. The AT&T launch might have been relatively successful for a phone that has been out that long.
  14. #74  
    Quote Originally Posted by falconrap View Post
    Your talking, but all I here is blah, blah, blah. If debt determined a company's fate, AMD would have been down the toilet and bankrupt nearly a decade ago. Debt means very little unless it's at an unhealthy level. In business, cash flow is king. If you have $500 million in cash, and you have an income source, you can keep making phones.
    If your debt is 80-100 percent of the cash you have on hand and sales are dropping drastically along with your income estimates for the next quarter....uh, that's a pretty unhealthy level. Your idea that Palm could "keep making phones" at will is silly. They had several hundreds of thousands of unsold inventory and they're still clearing it out two quarters later.

    As for you other statement about coupons, devaluing, and what not, it seems to me a little Econ 101 is order for some folks around here. HP made offers to sweeten the pot and move phones to 1) sell off inventory
    Correction: Pay people to take inventory. No sales are being made, save for the carriers and their contracts.

    and 2) generate more WebOS users (future users of upcoming Palm products). The price of the phone to users has only a loose tie-in to the amount of money Palm gets for these phones as the carriers order them from Palm for a certain amount of money. Then they are resold (hence the term resale). Offering the phone for free impacts the profit margins of the carrier more than anything else. Helping the sell through pick up is something I'm sure will help HP/Palm's relationships with the carriers.
    Releasing two devices that have produced mediocre sales for the three largest US carriers is more detrimental to HP/Palm's "relationships" than anything else. As for the base of WebOS users, it seems like for every one gained, one is lost to Droid, iPhone, Evo, or Epic 4G.

    Not too mention that we don't know what Palm looked like in the second quarter because they got bought out. The AT&T launch might have been relatively successful for a phone that has been out that long.
    You can tell by the fact that they dropped the price by a third 60 days after launching it. In fact, they sell the HP iPaq Glisten for almost as much as they sell the Pre and far more than they do the Pixi (free). MeanwhileThat should give you an idea of the current standing of the combined might of HP and Palm's offerings on ATT.
  15. #75  
    Couple of things to note here:

    1. With the exception of AT&T, Palm's phones were already paid for. Carriers pay up ahead of time and then attempt to clear out inventory. I have no idea how much AT&T paid, but let's say an average of $350 a phone and at least half a million units, less the cost of manufacturing and distribution, I figure they made at least $100 million in profit.

    2. An 80% debt load is quite high and looks bad to investors, but that doesn't mean that a company doesn't have room to move. If most of that debt doesn't mature for a few years, that gives Palm time to invest the cash at hand on new product.

    3. Problem is, $500 million isn't a lot of money if you think about it. Manufacturing cost alone, at $170 a unit (basing this off of iSuppli's estimate for the original Pre) means you've spent more than half your money just to create 2 million units. That doesn't include R&D costs, distribution costs or marketing. And I'm only talking about the device itself. There's also R&D money going into WebOS 2.0 and a certain cost to keep the lights on.

    4. HP offering cash for people to purchase Pres/Pre Pluses might not be a bad thing, for one thing, you get rid of old inventory in preparation for a new device and you also get a larger WebOS customer base, some of whom will be purchasing apps which Palm gets a 30% rake from (HP will never release what those figures are, so I'm not even going to guess how much money they've gotten from that).

    My guess? Palm did develop a new product, but waited on HP to provide cash to manufacture/distribute the new device. HP saw the device, saw what was out there and asked them to tweak it. So Palm starts to tweak in July, comes out with a refreshed product in August that HP approves and it gets sent to manufacturers in September and it releases in Oct-Nov timeframe for the holiday season. I figure a slate is also in the works, but given the VKB is just a placeholder in 2.0 for now, I figure that will come out after the holiday season.

    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    If your debt is 80-100 percent of the cash you have on hand and sales are dropping drastically along with your income estimates for the next quarter....uh, that's a pretty unhealthy level. Your idea that Palm could "keep making phones" at will is silly. They had several hundreds of thousands of unsold inventory and they're still clearing it out two quarters later.



    Correction: Pay people to take inventory. No sales are being made, save for the carriers and their contracts.



    Releasing two devices that have produced mediocre sales for the three largest US carriers is more detrimental to HP/Palm's "relationships" than anything else. As for the base of WebOS users, it seems like for every one gained, one is lost to Droid, iPhone, Evo, or Epic 4G.



    You can tell by the fact that they dropped the price by a third 60 days after launching it. In fact, they sell the HP iPaq Glisten for almost as much as they sell the Pre and far more than they do the Pixi (free). MeanwhileThat should give you an idea of the current standing of the combined might of HP and Palm's offerings on ATT.
  16. #76  
    just curious, how do you know that AT&T didn't have to "buy up front" as all other carriers do?

    I've never heard that before.
  17. #77  
    Didn't say that they didn't, but as they launched recently, I figure Palm's financial reports didn't include AT&T's Pre Plus purchases.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    just curious, how do you know that AT&T didn't have to "buy up front" as all other carriers do?

    I've never heard that before.
  18. #78  
    Quote Originally Posted by sumanb View Post
    Couple of things to note here:

    1. With the exception of AT&T, Palm's phones were already paid for. Carriers pay up ahead of time and then attempt to clear out inventory. I have no idea how much AT&T paid, but let's say an average of $350 a phone and at least half a million units, less the cost of manufacturing and distribution, I figure they made at least $100 million in profit.
    For perspective, note that in the last independent quarter - where they shipped almost a million devices (and sold less than half that) - their gross profit for the quarter was $47 million. Not Net. Gross.

    They were burning through cash and didn't have nearly enough coming in. I hardly think the AT&T launch "netted" them $100 million.

    My guess? Palm did develop a new product, but waited on HP to provide cash to manufacture/distribute the new device. HP saw the device, saw what was out there and asked them to tweak it. So Palm starts to tweak in July, comes out with a refreshed product in August that HP approves and it gets sent to manufacturers in September and it releases in Oct-Nov timeframe for the holiday season. I figure a slate is also in the works, but given the VKB is just a placeholder in 2.0 for now, I figure that will come out after the holiday season.
    So no Asian OEMs have reported receiving orders for said device, even though the original Pre was spotted repeatedly in China months before it was available on Sprint? And the carriers have approved a new WebOS 2.0 even though they JUST got done approving 1.4.5? And developers are ready to go with apps at a higher resolution, and all of the PDK developers tweaked their games to run at a higher res? This has all gone on in secret?

    I'd be amazed. Astounded, really.
  19. #79  
    Just an FYI. The WebOS 2.0 "beta" (it's more like alpha) isn't available to developers as part of the beta SDK program, only to a handful of developers that already have an application in the app store.

    Generally when a beta is available under the beta SDK program, it's then a few months out from release.
  20. #80  
    The market share numbers show half a million more users. The only number I remember hearing was 400,000 units made for Verizon, and chunk of those sold in the first quarter. So, clearly, the AT&T launch must have moved at least a couple hundred thousand units. Palm new they would be bought out long before it was announced (usually these things are roughly agreed upon weeks in advance of public knowledge).

    Further, as I have stated, being an Engineer, I can tell you that, with HP's backing, designing a new phone doesn't take more than 3-4 months from scratch, plus production and distribution. If Palm simply had to tweak some things, they could easily be in production right now, though I would hope we would have heard something.

    But most importantly, when you see all the carriers suddenly dropping the price through the floor, and at least one already showing an EOL status at the end of October, you can be pretty rest assured that all three carriers are trying to clear inventory for a new release. You don't do this if you think you can continue to slowly but surely sell the inventory out at a better profit margin. Just look at how long Sprint kept the prices up, only to suddenly drop the phone prices almost in line with an October-November phone release.

    Believe it or not. Who cares? The only ones who really know what's happening aren't talking. I find it hard to believe, however, that they plan to miss the holiday season when they are also releasing WebOS 2.0. Makes ZERO sense to do that.
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