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  1.    #1  
    Some words about an imho realistic scenario:


    The only thing we know:
    - webOS 2.0 beta1 was released on September 1st, that's 2 weeks from now


    Assumptions:
    - we will see a webOS beta2 3-5 weeks after beta1 and a webOS beta3/RC after additional 2-3 weeks

    => webOS 2.0 could be Gold within 5-8 weeks from September 1st, so most likely at the end of october.


    I hardly do believe, that mass-production of hardware starts before the executives could test at least some near-final version of the OS on it and before carrier approval (because they could need to change something).

    So the new hardware will start pre-production of final-hardware-inhouse-test-units in China at best at the end of September.

    After that:
    If you calculate 3 weeks for testing the first final devices with webOS 2.0 beta3/RC on carrieres, this will take from mid-October to mid-November. You need webOS 2.0 in a nearly-final stage to test against carrier networks. No way this starts before a webOS 2.0 beta3/RC is available.


    So mid-late November would be the date, where mass-production could start. Then let them produce for 4-5 weeks - now we are at christmas.

    - take some christmas-holidays -

    Ship the devices to the carriers inventory, takes 2-4 weeks. So we are in mid-late January for US availability, maybe February/March for other countries.


    So everything _perfectly_ fits for a CES announcement of new hardware, available mid-late January and consumer-announcement of webOS 2.0 (with hopefully immediate release on Pre and Pixi phones).


    A little bit confusing because timelines run concurrently, but that's my assumption.
    I really don't see _any_ way for a new device to become available before holiday season. Would be really surprised with any announcement this year.

    Hard bet on CES.



    P.S.: it's a similar timeline for a tablet and printers, as everything has to wait for webOS 2.0.
  2. #2  
    I thought the beta software release was for the SDK. OS SDK's are often released months before the actual OS beta.
  3. djmcgee's Avatar
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    #3  
    rot, if you are right then I don't like you anymore.

    I certainly hope the timeline is a little better than that. Also, since WebOS 2.0 is supposed to be backward compatible then why does HP have to wait for the RC version before they can begin manufacturing?

    I cannot imagine they have not tested the core portion of the OS with new hardware by now or work on it separately.

    What you propose is reasonable and a very linear timeframe but there are many things HP/Palm COULD do to improve this - the question is will they.

    Thanks for the perspective
    Dan
  4. StevenX's Avatar
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    #4  
    I though webOS 2.0 was supposed to be out by the end of the year? Am I making things up here?..
  5. spud101's Avatar
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    #5  
    I think your guess for the new hardware timeslot seems quite realistic. It is clear by now HP forced Palm to reconsider their roadmap (otherwise we would have had new devices already). We will see them either at CES or maybe a bit earlier to somehow interfere in the (marketing wise) huge Windows Phone 7 release.

    On the software side I think you're way too positive. What I understood from the webOS 2 beta currently released, it is supposed to be just a taster (Raoul said something like this). In the final deal I expect some revamped apps as well (calendar, contacts, etc.). The Quickoffice included is just a reader (with still flaws) and I hope Palm will not make the same mistake and release webOS 2 without doc editing capabilities. And I guess Palm will also have to make sure that the OS somehow will support the multiple form factors and screen resolutions, etc. And we have the rumored virtual keyboard, the new APIs,... And I can go on. And since Apple is introducing airprint (supported by HP printers) I think Palm should better include such a feature in webOS 2 too!

    So webOS 2 gold at the end of November. I don't think so at all.
  6. spud101's Avatar
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    #6  
    And I forgot this. I sincerely hope, now that they're part of a global company. They will also make webOS 2.0 really world ready:

    - locales
    - carrier settings
    - And most of all: App Catalog wise!
  7.    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    I thought the beta software release was for the SDK. OS SDK's are often released months before the actual OS beta.
    Palm released a "webOS 2.0 Developer Beta", namely an emulator running beta1 of webOS 2.0 and a fitting early version of the SDK (a beta too, if you want).

    Quote Originally Posted by djmcgee View Post
    Also, since WebOS 2.0 is supposed to be backward compatible then why does HP have to wait for the RC version before they can begin manufacturing?

    I cannot imagine they have not tested the core portion of the OS with new hardware by now or work on it separately.

    What you propose is reasonable and a very linear timeframe but there are many things HP/Palm COULD do to improve this - the question is will they.
    Even if HP Palm-side they would be willing to start manufacturing, they will not be able to start it without carrier approval (as they could need to change something hardware-wise). And carriers will most likely not approve new hardware with old software as this combination will not ship to any customer.

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenX View Post
    I though webOS 2.0 was supposed to be out by the end of the year? Am I making things up here?..
    It is supposed "to be due" later this year. I don't necessarily see that the same as "to be out on devices" later this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by spud101 View Post
    On the software side I think you're way too positive. What I understood from the webOS 2 beta currently released, it is supposed to be just a taster (Raoul said something like this). In the final deal I expect some revamped apps as well (calendar, contacts, etc.). The Quickoffice included is just a reader (with still flaws) and I hope Palm will not make the same mistake and release webOS 2 without doc editing capabilities. And I guess Palm will also have to make sure that the OS somehow will support the multiple form factors and screen resolutions, etc. And we have the rumored virtual keyboard, the new APIs,... And I can go on. And since Apple is introducing airprint (supported by HP printers) I think Palm should better include such a feature in webOS 2 too!

    So webOS 2 gold at the end of November. I don't think so at all.
    Nobody out of HP Palm knows. And I cannot discuss the details as of the NDA.

    We all should not forget, that webOS 2.0 is a HUGE step for developers (see developer day coverage), there is a lot of rumble-crumble UNDER the hood.
    So I would not have been disappointed, if there were NO visual changes to the UI (but there are, see the screenshots). To me the functionality is more important.


    What Rahul said is, that "what you see online is just a taster". That could mean anything from "not everything that's in there has been shown online" to "other things will be added in future betas" to "you have to use it on a device to get what it means".
    You have to know, that the Emulator does not emulate the real-deal experience. webOS 1.4.5 emulator never gets stuck for a second or something like that, although on the device you get these errors. You cannot see webOS 2.0 running on a device at the moment. But that's the only thing that counts.


    And relating to any wanted features that may not be present in webOS 2.0 - they could well come with webOS 2.x versions. I see webOS 2.0 as the "under the hood" basis, whereas following .x versions will settle on.


    And in general, webOS will keep on evolving after 2.0. This is not a door that is closing but a door that is just about to open!
  8. StevenX's Avatar
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    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by rot View Post
    It is supposed "to be due" later this year. I don't necessarily see that the same as "to be out on devices" later this year.
    What do you see it as?.. I'm a little lost on what you see as the distinction, other than potential hold-ups after it's been released to the carriers?
  9. #9  
    op, I think what your saying is very realistic it lines up with exactly what I thought. Remember ben and dion said the update would be coming late fall. Now that could have been changed with hp in the mix. But if we go by them then it sounds about right.

    hardware release should be by CES with multiple form factors. Pre2 release in january. Or maybe just maybe some time in november december but I don't see that happening I want that omap4.

    With hp now involved I expect to see better updates and an update to 2.5-3.0 by june. So if we don't get most of what we want to make webos much more fuctional theni do expect it by june.
  10.    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by StevenX View Post
    What do you see it as?.. I'm a little lost on what you see as the distinction, other than potential hold-ups after it's been released to the carriers?
    I see it "ready", aka "Gold" before the end of the year, but carrier approval on the Pre and Pixi phones took a lot of time with 1.4.5 too. So "due" does not mean you have it on your phone right then.

    But it could come at the very end of this year, too and we all would welcome it...just like it has been with 1.3.5 - you remember that?
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    I thought the beta software release was for the SDK. OS SDK's are often released months before the actual OS beta.
    It has been quite the opposite with webOS. The OS was released well before the SDK. They haven't released the doctors to developers yet (prob because the know better), but they are already running on devices internally (not likely "new" devices yet though)
  12. #12  
    Any current betas or future betas only have to show what developers need in order to build and integrate with their apps. Their could be functional changes or enhancments to calendar, camera, browser, ... that they are purposely not being put in the beta and sdk to the developers because their is no need for them to see it to build their apps.

    Another beta could come out to expose more api's and anything else Palm wants to give developers access to, but it doesn't have to include anything else.

    When I think of release candidates I think of something like MS with Windows or other software providers releasing something that they can insure works with their hardware. Does HP Palm really have to have a release candidate since they own both the hardware and the software? As long as their final beta provides all API, .. access to the developers they should be able to go from that to release.

    I'm not as confident as I was before Rahul tweeted patients, but I still think that a new phone with 2.0 will be out before the end of the year. Time will tell.
  13. #13  
    Wow people, anyone who really expects a new phone in 2010 is flat out dreaming, keep dreaming on but it will not happen. Mark my words. There is no way a new phone that is still in the design mode will be mass produced in weeks.

    HP is not worried about the current WebOS user base becaue it is very insignificant. Sood teeted last week hinting that HP can gain mindshare very quickly because of the massive resources it has, they are preparing for a big splash, it just not going to happen this year.
    Last edited by htabbach; 09/16/2010 at 02:20 PM.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by htabbach View Post
    Wow people, anyone who really expects a new phone in 2010 is flat out dreaming, keep dreaming on but it will not happen. Mark my words. There is no way a new phone that is still in the design mode will be mass produced in weeks.

    HP is not worried about the current WebOS user base becaue it is very insignificant. Sood teeted last week hinting that HP can gain mindshare very quickly because of the massive resources it has, they are preparing for a big splash, it just not going to happen this year.
    i'll take that bet
  15. #15  
    My guess:
    - Tablet: Q2 2011
    - Phone: Q3 2011
  16. #16  
    Question is, do you release 2.0 upgrade first or the new hardware with 2.0 first?
  17. #17  
    i just dont understand y phone hardware being released by holiday time with current software, and then a short time thereafter 2.0 being released is so unreleastic to so many... im sure palm had hardware had ideas if not models ready to go, and then when HP bought palm out they critiqued the balls off the handset/s, but whos to say they havent corrected the problems already and have created solutions so that the productions could take place? just my 2cents
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by Grabber5.0 View Post
    It has been quite the opposite with webOS. The OS was released well before the SDK. They haven't released the doctors to developers yet (prob because the know better), but they are already running on devices internally (not likely "new" devices yet though)
    You're right. My comments were regarding OS development efforts that want to have a successful release because they already have a trained cadre of software developers from a number of the well-known software houses with new/updated software ready to go at launch. Clearly that has not been the case with Palm and webOS to date.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    You're right. My comments were regarding OS development efforts that want to have a successful release because they already have a trained cadre of software developers from a number of the well-known software houses with new/updated software ready to go at launch. Clearly that has not been the case with Palm and webOS to date.
    Amen to that... hopefully they will get their SDK team up to speed and start giving developers enough time to get good apps written for launch. I don't see that happening with 2.0, but given the uncertain release date of new phone hardware, we may have a decent head start. I hope.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by barkerja View Post
    My guess:
    - Tablet: Q2 2011
    - Phone: Q3 2011
    Well in that case, I am going to use my upgrade next week to buy a new Pre. Then I'll have a new phone, a developer device, and another upgrade in time for that new phone.
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