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  1. NitOxYs's Avatar
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    #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by rot View Post
    Some words about an imho realistic scenario:


    The only thing we know:
    - webOS 2.0 beta1 was released on September 1st, that's 2 weeks from now


    Assumptions:
    - we will see a webOS beta2 3-5 weeks after beta1 and a webOS beta3/RC after additional 2-3 weeks

    => webOS 2.0 could be Gold within 5-8 weeks from September 1st, so most likely at the end of october.


    I hardly do believe, that mass-production of hardware starts before the executives could test at least some near-final version of the OS on it and before carrier approval (because they could need to change something).

    So the new hardware will start pre-production of final-hardware-inhouse-test-units in China at best at the end of September.

    After that:
    If you calculate 3 weeks for testing the first final devices with webOS 2.0 beta3/RC on carrieres, this will take from mid-October to mid-November. You need webOS 2.0 in a nearly-final stage to test against carrier networks. No way this starts before a webOS 2.0 beta3/RC is available.


    So mid-late November would be the date, where mass-production could start. Then let them produce for 4-5 weeks - now we are at christmas.

    - take some christmas-holidays -

    Ship the devices to the carriers inventory, takes 2-4 weeks. So we are in mid-late January for US availability, maybe February/March for other countries.


    So everything _perfectly_ fits for a CES announcement of new hardware, available mid-late January and consumer-announcement of webOS 2.0 (with hopefully immediate release on Pre and Pixi phones).


    A little bit confusing because timelines run concurrently, but that's my assumption.
    I really don't see _any_ way for a new device to become available before holiday season. Would be really surprised with any announcement this year.

    Hard bet on CES.



    P.S.: it's a similar timeline for a tablet and printers, as everything has to wait for webOS 2.0.
    EXCEPT. WebOS 2.0 is close to being completed. WebOS will be "Gold" by the end of this month supposedly. The testing of hardware has been done with beta builds far before developers get their hands on. Why are developers so naive to think they even remotely have a current version of an unreleased product. Palm/HP isn't like Microsoft giving developers different builds of upcoming os's. In-terms of hardware being manufactured. That's a null factor since the OS side of things is the last part of it. Carrier approval usually takes a month or two. We're looking for a November release (mid to late).
    Sprint Palm 2 - Developer Mode - 2.1.0
  2. #22  
    Wireless devices have to go through FCC approval. People on the lookout for a new phone will likely spot something about it on the FCC's website.
  3. NitOxYs's Avatar
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    #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by hrminer92 View Post
    Wireless devices have to go through FCC approval. People on the lookout for a new phone will likely spot something about it on the FCC's website.
    They pay money to have it privatized.
    Sprint Palm 2 - Developer Mode - 2.1.0
  4. mike5's Avatar
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    #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by htabbach View Post
    HP is not worried about the current WebOS user base becaue it is very insignificant. Sood teeted last week hinting that HP can gain mindshare very quickly because of the massive resources it has, they are preparing for a big splash, it just not going to happen this year.
    Though I am sure HP Palm wants to expand the current Palm consumer base, I think you are incorrect to say we are insignificant. As Rahul said in his blog, " I think the Palm webOS community is nothing short of amazing." Others talk about the great homebrew community, etc., so they care, they just want the passion to multiply to the mass of potential consumers.

    I am not in the industry & have no idea what is realistic in terms of testing, timelines, etc, but I do know Rubenstein has said more than once that webOS 2.0 would be out before the end of the year. He did not say it would be on new hardware, but from Soft Sailor, "Mr. Rubinstein affirmed that WebOS 2.0 will become available for download later this year."

    I also know that Rahul has said, "The stuff that excites me the most are the new form factors." So doesn't this mean new hardware is at least being tested?

    None of this guarantees when a new phone will be out. If you are correct that HP Palm wants to attract the most new customers, wouldn't the holiday season seem the most appropriate time for that release--assuming a device is ready? Who, in the real world, knows what CES is?

    Whenever it comes out, I want it to be of high quality--hardware & software. Though I haven't had problems w/my Sprint Pre hardware, it is obvious this needs to be corrected for any new device to be successful.
  5. #25  
    not just with the dozens of references before and after the acquisition with HP that Rub and Palm were working on a device already. They would be very ameuter not to have had something in the pipeline, but Rub already confermed that before the buyout. Also yes Rhaul even stated wait until people see these devices we wont be dissappointed, he cant elaborate on something that is meant to be secret until they announce it in the coming months. Yes companys can pay to keep FCC on hush, yes there was atleast 2 protype devices in works mid this year already being tested, and right now I'm in the devo program testing Webos 2.0 and is stated that this is pretty much done. To me it is not brain surgery minus the already rumors or a new device with 2.0, and a Giant like HP that they will have a device ready by the holiday season. HP has their own mobile division ran by Rub, they sent dozens of HP exects to help months ago already to help speedup their timeline. So like NO said expect something NOV to DEC the latest. The only reason it wouldnt be is something happens major like supply shortage.
  6.    #26  
    IF Palm really gave Devs old software and has webOS 2.0 near Gold behind the curtain...then WHERE should they reveal it officialy? Do you think they will just set up a press event or even just a homepage?

    I can't believe that. They will want to have some audience for their announcement. And the only event where I see a lot of audience is at CES.
    What makes another piece of the puzzle to me.

    But I still welcome surprises in terms of getting things earlier! :-)
  7. #27  
    Having a phone out for the holiday season is far more important than announcing it at a big consumer show.
  8.    #28  
    ok, now possibly I can partly answer my own question:

    There seems to be a "Palm Developer Day in New York City on November 19th and 20th, 2010"

    Source: Palm Events in Atlanta in the next two weeks | Palm Developer Center Blog


    This _could_ be a day, where we at least get some new glimpse into webOS 2.0.


    On the other hand: a Dev day isn't necessarily an event where you get consumer information...


    ...what do you think?
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by idontwan2know View Post
    Having a phone out for the holiday season is far more important than announcing it at a big consumer show.
    Absolutey true. Must have the phone out by Nov to take advantage of the shopping spree.
  10.    #30  
    That's right, but why must HP take advantage of the holiday season? HP has no need to rush for customers. They can brew things until the time is right.
  11. djmcgee's Avatar
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    #31  
    Must is a strong word

    HP/Palm would be foolish to let the holiday season pass with no news. I cannot imagine they would wait until CES to announce as that is two years after the Pre was announced.

    If they want this to be a consumer phone then it should be out before the holidays but if they are targeting businesses then the timeline is not so critical.

    We can speculate all we want and it won't change anything but I agree with WellWellWell11 in that new hardware is being tested with prior builds of 2.0. There is no way they released to devs the originally developed software. This is not the first beta.
    Dan
  12. #32  
    Actually, a holiday release works well for businesses, too. A lot of businesses have their fiscal years (and hence new budgets) starting in January. New budgets mean new money for purchases such as phone upgrades.

    Fiscal years ending in December also often mean sprees of spending before budgets are closed, so it's a good time to release on that basis as well.
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