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  1. Sayo's Avatar
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       #1  
    I've been hearing a LOT of chatter about new devices being released imminently, so I thought I would attempt to curb the inevitable disappointment before it gets too out of hand and remind everyone that the company mentioned fourth quarter revenue would be less than $150 million.

    This means, during the next several months, they'll be focused on burning off the glut of excess inventory currently in the channel. I think we can all agree that palm needs to go big for their next announcement. As such, I would imagine any device release might be similarly tied to the distribution of games and apps built with the beta PDK announced at GDC, since it was mentioned that the functionality required to enable these apps would be provided in a webOS update several months out.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts. We'll see how it turns out, I suppose.
    Last edited by Sayo; 03/19/2010 at 03:02 AM.
  2. #2  
    My guess (and hope, maybe even) would be more like September.

    It'll be later than at least June because of what you said, in addition to the fact that many Sprint customers would be eligible for an update in June. Considering that we bought the first one (and some of us have even been loyal to Palm for years), I think they'd have to hope that they'd be able to get us again for a new device.

    I lean more towards September though for a few reasons. One, it's most likely that Apple releases a new iPhone in June or so, and it'd probably be smarter to stay away from Apple this time around.

    Two, they really need something that's a blockbuster this time. Sure, they could get the Snapdragon, or a newer OMAP clocked to higher clock speeds. But those wouldn't be as big of a change as Palm needs, honestly. It's a nice small step, but Palm needs a device that's a huge leap forward. If they can afford it, I think waiting for the (multicore) Cortex A9 would be smarter. That's the kind of jump ahead in hardware that they need. Unfortunately, mass production of any kinds of chipsets using that doesn't seem like it'll be ready before the fourth (calendar) quarter of the year.

    Palm had the fastest CPU available at the time it was released, only to be leapfrogged by devices using the 1GHz Snapdragon only a few months later. They can't afford that again, which is another reason I'd guess (and hope) they waited for that.
  3. #3  
    when did anyone speculate it would be any earlier than this?
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by jhoff80 View Post
    My guess (and hope, maybe even) would be more like September.

    It'll be later than at least June because of what you said, in addition to the fact that many Sprint customers would be eligible for an update in June. Considering that we bought the first one (and some of us have even been loyal to Palm for years), I think they'd have to hope that they'd be able to get us again for a new device.

    I lean more towards September though for a few reasons. One, it's most likely that Apple releases a new iPhone in June or so, and it'd probably be smarter to stay away from Apple this time around.

    Two, they really need something that's a blockbuster this time. Sure, they could get the Snapdragon, or a newer OMAP clocked to higher clock speeds. But those wouldn't be as big of a change as Palm needs, honestly. It's a nice small step, but Palm needs a device that's a huge leap forward. If they can afford it, I think waiting for the (multicore) Cortex A9 would be smarter. That's the kind of jump ahead in hardware that they need. Unfortunately, mass production of any kinds of chipsets using that doesn't seem like it'll be ready before the fourth (calendar) quarter of the year.

    Palm had the fastest CPU available at the time it was released, only to be leapfrogged by devices using the 1GHz Snapdragon only a few months later. They can't afford that again, which is another reason I'd guess (and hope) they waited for that.
    I have to agree. A multicore CPU + enabled GPU in the GUI + 1 GB of memory and the Pre will be a power house. I couldn't even begin to imagine how fast that device would be and it would definitely get attention. So what if we need to carry a car batter around to keep it powered...so worth it
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by chud311 View Post
    when did anyone speculate it would be any earlier than this?
    Never...
    Sprint|Samsung Epic
  6. #6  
    June does seem a bit early to me, I think a release date around September might serve Palm better.
  7. #7  
    So let me get this straight...

    You're positing (jhoff80) that Palm is more likely to drop their next device closer to September than June? I sure hope not.

    Like many, I'd like it sooner rather than later. But unlike many (on this board), I don't even have one yet.

    My contract's up June 13, and I'm eligible April 1 (for my $150 credit). I had intended on holding off until the last possible moment - hoping against hope that Palm would drop that much anticipated 'new device' before then. But if there is reasonable enough doubt that it will happen (by mid-June) then I may as well take the plunge on April 1. But, of course, if I wait until June I'll technically have until July (30-day return policy).

    I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for leads and stories pointing toward or away from a new device by June/July for sure.

    Hey - Just for kicks, Sayo, why don't you add a poll to this thread asking who 'speculates' that a new WebOS device may hit Sprint by end of 2nd Quarter, 3rd Quarter or 4th Quarter?
  8. #8  
    Hmm palm has a serious problem, I hope google buys them out, I would love all the webos goodies on Android. Anyway as for me I'm not waiting that long. I'll be picking up a Nexus One or Supersonic hopefully in the next 30 days. I know you may start bashing me but Palm has a bigger problem then you think. I have 6 friends here that are all using a pre right now and as soon as the Nexus One or Supersonic is released every single one of them is dumping their pre. This is mainly because of the terrible built quality, and at this point outdated hardware.
  9. #9  
    People dumping WebOS phones isn't really an issue when you have 500K+ sitting on store shelves about to start getting marked down to fire sale prices.

    For once, I'd advise people interested in one to ignore eBay and the secondhand market.
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by jhoff80 View Post
    It'll be later than at least June because of what you said, in addition to the fact that many Sprint customers would be eligible for an update in June. Considering that we bought the first one (and some of us have even been loyal to Palm for years), I think they'd have to hope that they'd be able to get us again for a new device.
    Um, this is a really dumb argument. Most Pre users on Sprint will be eligible for an upgrade by June, if Palm has nothing available, I would bet many will jump ship. Smartphone users are a fickle breed and many want the latest greatest. There is no way Palm will announce anything until immediately before its release (in order to keep sales of existing devices high until the new device comes out).

    Here's an argument that will spin your head. If what you say is true, and Palm will not release a new device until September, it might serve Palm loyalists to opt for a new/different device in June anyway. Why? Let's say I go with the newest XYZ phone in June, that puts my next upgrade date at April 1, 2011. If Palm releases a new device in September, there gives them six months to work out any kinks with it in terms of updates to fix issues, etc. (like it took 6 months to get to 1.4). Plus I would get to play with a new device for 10 months. So, all in all Palm could miss out on a year's worth of sales if they delay until September.

    But that is just my opinion, and you know that opinions are like farts they all stink unless they are their own...
  11. #11  
    In my opinion there are only two ways to come out from this issue:


    a) Jumpstart sales via lowering price
    This phone is great! And with improved software it would be capable of so many more things than now.
    So stick with it and start selling Pre and Pixi at the lowest possible price, maybe something like 250-300USD without contract (0 with contract) and start getting these phone to the masses - that's what developers want to have: the masses. Then they will develop many great Apps and Palm will be able to compensate the lower price with revenue due to app catalog sales and the number of phone-sales. This would stop losses and make Palm known for a lot of people - which are the main problems as of now.
    Especially...this is an area, where the iPhone isn't the competitor. And they would avoid poenal-fees from contract-builders for not buying the right amount of phones.



    b) someone puts some 500 million USD into Palm for releasing a new high-end device for holiday season 2010, worldwide and on many carriers - ways better than the Jun2010-iPhone.


    Or maybe a combination of these two.
  12. cgk
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    #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey47 View Post

    Here's an argument that will spin your head. If what you say is true, and Palm will not release a new device until September, it might serve Palm loyalists to opt for a new/different device in June anyway. Why? Let's say I go with the newest XYZ phone in June, that puts my next upgrade date at April 1, 2011. If Palm releases a new device in September, there gives them six months to work out any kinks with it in terms of updates to fix issues, etc. (like it took 6 months to get to 1.4). Plus I would get to play with a new device for 10 months. So, all in all Palm could miss out on a year's worth of sales if they delay until September.

    But that is just my opinion, and you know that opinions are like farts they all stink unless they are their own...
    There are two separate drivers here - What Palm wants and needs to do, what spirit wants and needs to do.

    For Palm, having a nice device out to keep people on the upgrade path is a great idea and so if they can turn out a device to do that - fantastic. However, spirit don't really care what device you have as long as you sign a new contract with them and keep sending them money every month. Spirit has to decide if it makes sense to offer a follow-up device to something that has not been a spectacular seller and is likely to depress sales of the glut of Palm inventory that they currently hold. That is also a problem for Palm in that they know that Partners want to shift these Palm Pre and Pixi units so they have to walk a fine line between trying to promote a new product and not killing off sales of an existing product.
  13. blu8503's Avatar
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    #13  
    They will not hold back any longer, I think by reading the statements from Palm CEO that he knows what delaying things will do to your company. expect new hardware sooner than later
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by rot View Post
    In my opinion there are only two ways to come out from this issue:


    a) Jumpstart sales via lowering price
    This phone is great! And with improved software it would be capable of so many more things than now.
    So stick with it and start selling Pre and Pixi at the lowest possible price, maybe something like 250-300USD without contract (0 with contract) and start getting these phone to the masses - that's what developers want to have: the masses. Then they will develop many great Apps and Palm will be able to compensate the lower price with revenue due to app catalog sales and the number of phone-sales. This would stop losses and make Palm known for a lot of people - which are the main problems as of now.
    Especially...this is an area, where the iPhone isn't the competitor. And they would avoid poenal-fees from contract-builders for not buying the right amount of phones.
    One issue here. Verizon kinda already sells them super low.

    Verizon sells them BOGO. The Palm Pre Plus is $30 at Amazon. $40 at Wirefly.

    Granted, Sprint and Verizon could slash the corporate store price to $0-$50, but then it starts getting the "free phone" stigma that would be a blow to future WebOS products.

    Frankly, I don't think price is the problem. Even at no price.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by blu8503 View Post
    They will not hold back any longer, I think by reading the statements from Palm CEO that he knows what delaying things will do to your company. expect new hardware sooner than later
    With what money? Or with which carrier?
  16. cgk
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    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    With what money? Or with which carrier?
    Indeed, if only it was as simple as saying "here it is!".
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by Sayo View Post
    I've been hearing a LOT of chatter about new devices being released imminently, so I thought I would attempt to curb the inevitable disappointment before it gets too out of hand and remind everyone that the company mentioned fourth quarter revenue would be less than $150 million.

    This means, during the next several months, they'll be focused on burning off the glut of excess inventory currently in the channel. I think we can all agree that palm needs to go big for their next announcement. As such, I would imagine any device release might be similarly tied to the distribution of games and apps built with the beta PDK announced at GDC, since it was mentioned that the functionality required to enable these apps would be provided in a webOS update several months out.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts. We'll see how it turns out, I suppose.
    I will have to get some clarification on this, but I believe q4 for palm means over the next 3 months which may include part or all of June. This would still leave open the possibility for a device in late June/early July that would not be reflected in its revenue...i hope this is the case anyway
  18. #18  
    Best case: Announcement at CTIA next week (Palm WILL be there, but have yet to announce a presentation) with a June release.

    Probable case: Announcement in May/June for a Sept release.

    Worst case: Sept announcement with a Holiday release.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by kkumar99 View Post
    I will have to get some clarification on this, but I believe q4 for palm means over the next 3 months which may include part or all of June. This would still leave open the possibility for a device in late June/early July that would not be reflected in its revenue...i hope this is the case anyway
    When Jon was asked on the conference call if the 150M revenue forecast included new devices or upcoming carrier launches he basically dodged the question. Take it how you like but i believe it does not include a new device which means we may see one.
  20. Stihl's Avatar
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    #20  
    You know, even when a new device comes, WebOS is going to need some big help itself. It cant be all bug fixes and bulwark.

    They need a shiny new phone that is captivating and feels GREAT to use. They also need to open their mouths and tell us what they plan to do with the OS because this wait and see connerie doesn't work when you are the smallest dog on the block--you need to be barking all the time.

    Do elevation partners still have a huge stake in Palm? I would love for Bono to get some of his Palms and throw more money in there. WebOS is a clear winner--all it needs is a solid year with Palm acting aggressively.
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