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  1. bruba's Avatar
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    #21  
    You bought more shares, because Palm said they didn't cease all manufacturing in China..?
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by jakerome View Post
    I am talking about how Palm claimed production was suspended because of Chinese New Year. It's now obvious that while they suspended production during Chinese New Year, the primary reason for the suspension was poor sales.

    Palm did all but lie.
    No, it's really not obvious. That's your interpretation, but it's far from "obvious" that this was the reason they "shut down production".
  3.    #23  
    I bought more shares because I took Palm's statements at face value and didn't realize that they were shading the truth in order to prop up their stock price in the short term.

    I hope for their sake that no one at Palm sold a single share of stock anytime in February.
  4.    #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    no, it's really not obvious. That's your interpretation, but it's far from "obvious" that this was the reason they "shut down production".
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  5. mikeyvt1's Avatar
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    #25  
    Jacob, I would just like to say that everyone in China just about shut down there factories during Chinese new years. I am not Chinese but Asian and have many Chinese friends. They close for a month over in China because it is the biggest holiday of the year for them. For heaven's sakes the supplier I get my nails from (I work for a construction supply company) gave us an email saying that we would not be able to order nails for a month. We ship pallets out daily. If you have a factory in China I can guarantee it was shut down for the New Years Celebration.
    Last edited by mikeyvt; 02/26/2010 at 12:08 AM. Reason: grammer
  6. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikeyvt View Post
    Jacob, I would just like to say that everyone in China just about shut down there factories during Chinese new years. I am not Chinese but Asian and have many Chinese friends. They close for a month over in China because it is the biggest holiday of the year for them. For heaven's sakes the supplier I get my nails from (I work for a construction supply company) gave us an email saying that we would not be able to order nails for a month. We ship pallets out daily. If you have a factory in China I can guarantee it was shut down for the New Years Celebration.
    That's the way it was about 20 years ago when I briefly worked at a Chinese own computer parts distributor as well. It was known that they had to beef up on purchases to prepare for factory shutdowns.

    But, when some bozo has his/her mind made up about "facts", there's no reaoning with them.
  7.    #27  
    Did they top making iPhones too?

    Some factories shut down. Some don't. If you really think Palm's thought there sales were going to be fine on February 11, even though they are missing their sales projections by 30%... well, I don't even know how to respond to that.

    In summary: Dec. 18 they gave projections. Feb. 11 they call out the factory shutdown as a non-event. February 25 they admit that sales are coming in 30% below estimates.

    But just so I'm clear-- do you believe that the factory shutdown is completely unrelated to Palm selling far fewer handsets than expected? In my mind, Palm absolutely knew on February 11 that they were going to miss sales estimates, yet they put out a statement that led many to come to a different conclusion.
  8.    #28  
    The money quote, again: "Palm regularly adjusts its product manufacturing levels to manage inventory. In anticipation of the Verizon Wireless launch and Chinese New Year, we increased production levels prior to February, and anticipate ramping production back up after the Chinese New Year ends."

    What they didn't mention was that they were going to be "ramping" to a lower level than thay had previously.
  9. #29  
    i was planning on buying me some palm shares jst yesterday, but now im dont even know if is a good idea.
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by jakerome View Post
    The money quote, again: "Palm regularly adjusts its product manufacturing levels to manage inventory. In anticipation of the Verizon Wireless launch and Chinese New Year, we increased production levels prior to February, and anticipate ramping production back up after the Chinese New Year ends."

    What they didn't mention was that they were going to be "ramping" to a lower level than thay had previously.
    And which partof what they said do you have a problem with?
  11. #31  
    Chinese Palm Pre factory manager: "I have good news and bad news. The good news is everyone gets new years off! The bad news is your time off is going to last for a few months!"
  12. #32  
    "Palm regularly adjusts its product manufacturing levels to manage inventory. In anticipation of the Verizon Wireless launch and Chinese New Year, we increased production levels prior to February, and anticipate ramping production back up after the Chinese New Year ends."

    The key word in Palm's response is 'anticipate.' If the spokesperson had said 'will' then Palm would be in a lot of trouble.

    So using the word 'anticipate', in my mind, means that Palm was still trying to make a decision on what to do after the Chinese New Year. It's a classic 'wiggle room' response that I see companies use all the time.

    Does it mean people can't/won't sue? Nope. But Palm will not lose (although a lawsuit will be a big distraction and money drain).
  13.    #33  
    Oh, they will ramp back up. They will ramp back up to 50-75% of the rate they originally planned. And they knew that on February 11.

    They were shading the truth. It cost Palm longs, those that took Palm's announcement at face value, hundreds of millions. And it effectively earned bears, those that put no credence in Palm's statements and instead trusted their inside sources about Palm's manufacturing slowdown, that same amount of money.

    The moral of the story for Palm investors: you can't believe anything Palm says.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by jakerome View Post
    Just a few weeks ago, reports surfaced that Palm had ceased all manufacturing in China. While conceding these reports were true, Palm made statements claiming that this part of the business plan and gave no indications that this was reflective of any problem with operations.

    We now know that these statements were misleading. As a longtime investor in Palm, since 2003, I took the company at it's word and bought ###### more shares, a substantial part of my overall portfolio. Now, only weeks later, Palm has effectively acknowledged that those statements were not completely accurate, and sales will fall far short of the projections made just several months ago.

    I would like to know why Palm made such misleading statements, which led directly to a large investment in Palm stock. While I think the Pre is a great product, these misleading statements from Palm have caused me to question my commitment to the Palm platform, and make it much less likely that I will advocate anyone else buy Palm products in the future. I know a half-dozen people with Pres, and several friends bought Treos and Centros at my suggestion.

    I really can't express my how disappointed I am in the way Palm has misled its longtime investors. The double speak regarding Palm's business make me unsure about Palm's future as an independent company, and now have me questioning every claim that Palm makes.

    Two weeks ago, I was counting the days until the Pre Plus hit Sprint. Now, I'm left stunned and wondering if I should invest one more dime in Palm products or stock.

    Palm investor since 2003.
    Treo user since 2003.
    Pre user since June 6, 2009.

    Jacob Rome
    ...Because posting your letter meant for Palm on a non associated 3rd party website is going to make a difference.
  15.    #35  
    Shareholder lawsuits are among the silliest inventions of the capitalist era. Shareholders own the company, so all you're doing is suing yourself. So no, I have no plans to litigate.

    And yes, clearly I was a schmuck for accepting Palm's assurances at face value. I won't make that mistake again, and neither will any other investor. As a result, any guidance Palm gives into their business is essentially worthless, as they have now openly demonstrated that they will use corporate statements in order to deceive company investors.

    And yeah, as noted, Palm knew three weeks ago (at least) that sales were far slower than expected and they admitted as much yesterday. Yet two weeks ago they promoted the fiction that everything was fine.

    For now on, the only thing I'll believe from Palm are audited financial statements.
  16. #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    But, when some bozo has his/her mind made up about "facts", there's no reaoning with them.
    You've all herd of Godwin's Law? (see Godwin's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

    Herb's post here has inspired me to come up with Precentral's very own "Palm's Law of Insult", which is essentially this:

    If a thread discussion includes a post which is critical of Palm the Company, its devices, employees, and/or operating system , the probability of a personal attack including outright name calling by hparsons increases and approaches 1.
    PalmOS Treos: 90/300/600/650/700/755/launch day Pre minus/ Evo/Epic
  17.    #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by eekinsman View Post
    You've all herd of Godwin's Law? (see Godwin's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

    Herb's post here has inspired me to come up with Precentral's very own "Palm's Law of Insult", which is essentially this:

    If a thread discussion includes a post which is critical of Palm the Company, its devices, employees, and/or operating system , the probability of a personal attack including outright name calling by hparsons increases and approaches 1.
    Nice one eekinsman. And the funny thing is, I've been a huge Pre, webOS and Palm booster, especially the last 13 months. I've been in the (mistaken) habit of giving Palm the benefit of the doubt, and been accused of being naive to trust Palm. Sadly, those accusations have proven true. So it was a little weird to post a thread pointing out the obvious (Palm knew there was a problem 2 weeks ago and was shading the truth) and then see community members deny that obvious truth and instead resort to schoolyard name-calling.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by eekinsman View Post
    You've all herd of Godwin's Law? (see Godwin's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

    Herb's post here has inspired me to come up with Precentral's very own "Palm's Law of Insult", which is essentially this:

    If a thread discussion includes a post which is critical of Palm the Company, its devices, employees, and/or operating system , the probability of a personal attack including outright name calling by hparsons increases and approaches 1.
    Except you pick and choose your "evidence". Would you like a listing of some of the threads where I have been critical of Palm, the company, its device, employees, and/or operating systems.

    However, if someone comes on here and publicly whines that he was lied to or mislead, when the information he was given was precisely correct, and he makes a jump to a conclusion that is not supported by anything except his personal view, then says it's "obvious" that the person was lying. Yep, that's a "bozo" remark.

    Can't help but notice though, you don't seem at all adverse to a little "personal attacking" yourself, when the mood strikes.

    Just an observation, no need to go changing Wikipedia or anything...
  19. #39  
    [QUOTE=jakerome;2249479As a longtime investor in Palm, since 2003, I took the company at it's word and bought ###### more shares, a substantial part of my overall portfolio.

    Palm investor since 2003.
    Treo user since 2003.
    Pre user since June 6, 2009.

    [/QUOTE]

    You have made two classic rookie mistakes in investing. You love a company and love their product and for some reason think that makes it a good stock. You have thus fallen in love with their stock. Never EVER fall in love with a stock.

    And then you compounded that mistake, by investing in the company and making it a substantial portion of your overall portfolio. This company is rated CCC+ , it is speculative, not investment grade, and in no way whatsoever, should a speculative company be a substantial portion of your portfolio.

    The company has had not made any money, has negative EBITDA and has had negative free cash flow for the last 8 quarters!!

    I'd recommend that you find a financial advisor to re-allocate your portfolio.

    If you want to keep PALM in your portfolio as a speculative "punt" , then decrease the total percentage.
  20.    #40  
    Thanks for the advice Nick. I love the product just as much as I ever did. I've been pretty hard headed when it comes to Palm stock, and I've taken my share of profits along the way as I felt the stock price was not justified by the fundamentals. Truth is, most of my current investment in Palm is so-called "house money," as I bought the substantial majority of my shares at prices well below $5. It's a big chunk (or was) because the shares I bought at $3 increased substantially in value. Sold off much, bought back some more at lower prices.

    As to the CCC+, that's a rating intended for bonds not stocks-- all stock investments are speculative by nature. Palm has had high volatility for a long time since their profits have been transitory at best.

    Certainly I've made my share of mistakes investing in Palm & other stocks, but not because I'm a "rookie." I have a fairly high risk tolerance, and that has sometimes hurt me and sometimes helped me. Folks thought I was a fool to buy AAPL at $7 back in 1998. That's worked out OK. But the fact is, if Palm had not put out their remarks about the factory shutdown, I absolutely would not have bought one additional share (I would have likely continued to hold the shares I already owned).
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