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  1.    #1  
    Link to story

    10 countries, 20 carriers (Verizon in May/June; T-mobile?)

    This news will greatly help them out on Wall Street as this evidences that their name is still valuable and they can push product.

    Obviously, it can all go downhill from here but I'll take this along with the WM Treo line refresh this summer as a sign of good things to come from Palm.

    Should be an interesting next 12 months.




    ps
    I'm up to 11 friends/associates who have bought the phone, so this makes sense, lol
    Last edited by Malatesta; 03/31/2008 at 07:07 PM.

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  2. #2  
    Funny how the announcements about this are so rah-rah about it being an entry-level device to introduce folks into the "smartphone" catagory.

    Sooooo, now that they love the taste and want to move up into a "real" PalmOS smartphone - where are they going to turn? A WinceMob 800w?

    It's like Honda releasing a Civic to get people off mopeds and introduced to their car... then only making 1 new (stripped) Accord every few years for 5x the price. AND - the Civic comes with an mp3 stereo (Centro - PocketTunes Deluxe) and the Accord only has a radio (standard Pockettunes). Heck, if the Treo is supposed to be "high end" and Enterprise then WTF didn't they save the Ptunes licensing fee (since many of us already own it) and include built-in VPN client(s) or something else that we get screwed buying out-of-pocket alone?

    For a "$600 device" I can see why many are dumping the Treo and getting $99 Centros - dogpaddling to have a PalmOS device that runs their library of apps while they wait and wait for something better. Ignore your customer needs and service and they will slowly fade away......
    Treo 755s in good condition available on ebay for $50-$75. No need to pay for insurance or buy a Pre.
  3. #3  
    I can't believe they've already sold 1 million of these although I didn't purchase one, it's nice to see some positive news coming from Palm for a change. Now if Palm could only get the 800w out quickly, but that's another story...lol
  4. #4  
    Compare that with Nokia, and you'd find that not too impressive; they probably sell 1 million phones every second...

    Assuming 200 USD per phone, thats 200 M in sales... over six months. I wonder if that is good or bad in the mobile phone business.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by GreenHex View Post
    Compare that with Nokia, and you'd find that not too impressive; they probably sell 1 million phones every second...

    Assuming 200 USD per phone, thats 200 M in sales... over six months. I wonder if that is good or bad in the mobile phone business.
    Now, compare the size of Nokia to the size of Palm and tell me if your original comparison is still fair.

    Nokia has been in business far longer than Palm has. Actually, Nokia has been in business since 1865 and selling mobile phones since 1960. Palm has been selling phones since 2000 (with the Visor Phone, 2001/2002 for the Treo). Contrast 6 years with 50.

    Nokia is also a financially larger corporation. Comparing Nokia's financial information from http://www.nokia.com/A4325269 to Palm's http://investor.palm.com/pressdetail...leaseID=251832 shows Nokia to be about 100 times larger than Palm.


    To be honest, for Palm's size, I would say that they are doing pretty good with the Centro. Maybe not "perfect" (definitions/interpretations will vary), but pretty good (I don't think that there are any "perfect" cell phone manufacturers, and I am glad that there are not).
    Last edited by dkirker; 04/01/2008 at 02:39 AM. Reason: grammar
    Did you know:

    webOS ran on a Treo 800 during initial development.
  6. #6  
    Another way of looking at it, is that more than half of Palm's phones sold in the last 6 months were centros.

    Surur
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by dkirker View Post
    Now, compare the size of Nokia to the size of Palm and tell me if your original comparison is still fair.
    No... Nokia does not sell 1 million phones every second, more like 10-12 phones a second... (~400 M / year) And that is the minimum. Admittedly, a sizable percentage of these phones are dumb (as opposed to the "smart" ones, I suppose).

    I was just wondering aloud if 1 M in 6 mo is good or bad. Conclusion: it's leaning towards good.

    - mvk
  8. #8  
    I just pulled the numbers

    Q4 FY07 750,000

    Q1 FY08 689,000
    Total 1,439,000

    Centro introduced
    Q2 FY08 777, 000

    Q3 FY08 826,000
    Total 1,603,000

    So 13% growth over 6 months in smartphone sales, but the Centro is much more than 13% cheaper, meaning revenue is going backward.

    Also if Centro sold 1 million, thats 62% of the last 6 months sales for a 13% growth in sales, meaning a major cannibalisation of the other products.

    So basically it was
    Code:
    TTTTTTTTTTTTTT        6-12 months ago and last 6 months
    TTTTTTCCCCCCCCCC
    Its the Centrofication of the Treo, or the invasion of the low-end smartphone. Sales are up, but revenue have not increased in proportion. This is in fact what killed Motorola.

    Surur
  9. sbono13's Avatar
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    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So 13% growth over 6 months in smartphone sales, but the Centro is much more than 13% cheaper, meaning revenue is going backward.

    Also if Centro sold 1 million, thats 62% of the last 6 months sales for a 13% growth in sales, meaning a major cannibalisation of the other products.
    Yes revenue from smartphones has basically been flat for the last few quarters (compared to the previous year). As for your 62% number, not quite-- the million dollar mark includes 4 weeks of sales from the current quarter, which started March 1. I would guess that Centro shipments from the first 2 launch quarters were about 650K (41%).

    The important thing to consider is that Treo sales at the high end had been taking a hit anyway, due to the iPhone and the lack of innovation. So Centro might have filled in a gap that would have opened up anyway.
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    Link to story

    10 countries, 20 carriers (Verizon in May/June; T-mobile?)
    I'll get to be a number if Verizon decides to offer them. My younger brother has one and I kind of like it--plus for $99, why not?
    No problem should ever be solved twice.

    Verizon Treo650 W/Custom ROM
  11.    #11  
    Another number to ponder which Colligan recently stated they are consistently selling:
    • 30,000 Centro's a week

    Considering how much people at TC lambasted the phone before/after its release, I think this goes a long way to suggest that users at TC are not as "in touch" with what customers want as they would like. Same goes for any tech site or blog for that matter. True, they drive technology but don't always know what is best.
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So 13% growth over 6 months in smartphone sales, but the Centro is much more than 13% cheaper, meaning revenue is going backward.

    Also if Centro sold 1 million, thats 62% of the last 6 months sales for a 13% growth in sales, meaning a major cannibalisation of the other products.

    Its the Centrofication of the Treo, or the invasion of the low-end smartphone. Sales are up, but revenue have not increased in proportion. This is in fact what killed Motorola.

    Surur
    I think the analysis is a bit off, as noted above Palm's Treo line is old, out dated and can't compete. Palm said as much during the conference call. So while I'm sure there are some people who bought a Centro instead of a Treo, the number has to be small, especially with 70% of Centro owners being "new" to smartphones.

    That's not so much cannibalizing, just new growth/new customers.

    Until they can "even the mix" of high and low end smartphones, their profit margin won't improve. They are more than aware of this.

    Since they are slated to launch two major WM devices (GSM and CDMA) in the next few months, this will begin that phase of "back to profitability", hence why some investors have been positive about these reports.

    Your other point about Moto is also off, imo. On U.S. carriers, the Moto Q/Q9 series sells for $99-$150 as well--hardly a premium over the Centro. Fact is, the Centro appeals more to regular users, young crowd and females than the Moto Q. This is just a byproduct of "business design" and WM looking more like a desktop OS than a regular phone.

    Furthermore, it's pretty hilarious on the same day that Palm announces their 1-millionth sale, T-mobile discontinuous their Sidekick iD--Danger's $99 device that many here predicted would be more popular than the Centro (in fact, IIRC, you thought the Razr would be better than the Centro)
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I think the lesson is that the general public dont want a smartphone, they want a cute phone, and you need to hook them in some way. I dont get what the Centro's 'hook' is.
    ...
    I hate to say it, but Apple knows that shiny sells, and Palm does not.

    Surur

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  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    Another number to ponder which Colligan recently stated they are consistently selling:
    • 30,000 Centro's a week

    Considering how much people at TC lambasted the phone before/after its release, I think this goes a long way to suggest that users at TC are not as "in touch" with what customers want as they would like. Same goes for any tech site or blog for that matter. True, they drive technology but don't always know what is best.

    I think the analysis is a bit off, as noted above Palm's Treo line is old, out dated and can't compete. Palm said as much during the conference call. So while I'm sure there are some people who bought a Centro instead of a Treo, the number has to be small, especially with 70% of Centro owners being "new" to smartphones.

    That's not so much cannibalizing, just new growth/new customers.

    Until they can "even the mix" of high and low end smartphones, their profit margin won't improve. They are more than aware of this.

    Since they are slated to launch two major WM devices (GSM and CDMA) in the next few months, this will begin that phase of "back to profitability", hence why some investors have been positive about these reports.

    Your other point about Moto is also off, imo. On U.S. carriers, the Moto Q/Q9 series sells for $99-$150 as well--hardly a premium over the Centro. Fact is, the Centro appeals more to regular users, young crowd and females than the Moto Q. This is just a byproduct of "business design" and WM looking more like a desktop OS than a regular phone.

    Furthermore, it's pretty hilarious on the same day that Palm announces their 1-millionth sale, T-mobile discontinuous their Sidekick iD--Danger's $99 device that many here predicted would be more popular than the Centro (in fact, IIRC, you thought the Razr would be better than the Centro)
    I am not sure the Centro can rightfully be called a success, even at selling 1 million. It did not add 1 million new users to Palm, given that overall sales only grew 13%. It draws questions as to whether that 75% number is real, given that it implied that Palm would have sold only 300 000 Treo's in the last quarter without the Centro.

    Surur
  13.    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I am not sure the Centro can rightfully be called a success, even at selling 1 million. It did not add 1 million new users to Palm, given that overall sales only grew 13%. It draws questions as to whether that 75% number is real, given that it implied that Palm would have sold only 300 000 Treo's in the last quarter without the Centro.

    Surur
    Well
    • It's the best selling Palm device to date
    • Sales per carrier are increasing, not decreasing with time
    • They are reaching new demographics
    • Sell-through is higher than shipped (= high demand/tight supply)

    How is that not a success for a company that everyone was saying would fail terribly with this device?

    The 70% is a survey of Palm Centro purchasers, but I don't see any reason to doubt it--it seems quite accurate.

    If their sell through for the last 6 months is 1,470,000 and they just hit 1 million for the Centro--I think the says that a huge part of their sales come from the Centro.

    It just looks like a lot of the previous owners have not bought any new devices from them or moved on (expected) and those customers were replaced and slightly augmented by new Centro owners, no?

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  14. #14  
    Why is everyone calling this an entry level phone. Most people on this site are not entry level users.
    Florida Tony
    GSM: Treo 270 > Treo 600 > Treo 650 > Treo 680 > Centro > iPhone 3G S
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I just pulled the numbers

    Sales are up, but revenue have not increased in proportion.

    Surur
    I don't think the numbers or what happened should be a surprise to anyone... thanks for the post.

    In general:

    I'm not sure I'd even call the centro a "hit." IMO a hit would have been 5 million sold (or more).
    01000010 01100001 01101110 00100000 01010100 01101000 01110010 01100101 01100001 01100100 00100000 01000011 01110010 01100001 01110000 01110000 01100101 01110010 01110011 00100001
  16. #16  
    I nevey want to change to centro/680 from my treo650 ..

    I hope next generation Palm OS base PDA phone
    Wifi , auto focus camera is Basic function

    option 3.5G UTMS , wiMax , GPS
  17. #17  
    1 million phones in 6 months, yack yack yack.... zzzzzzzzz

    what-evah!

    Motorola, currently the sickest puppy in the handset litter, sells that many phones every month. Palm is so lost now it barely warrants a mention in the press.

    The real story is the $32M loss last quarter PLUS a $25M write-off due to a lost bet on a dodgy finance instrument. How long can Palm sustain such losses when it handed over $900M in cash to shareholders? Yes, that's where all the money from Elevation Partners went (before you forget about them...) and years of profits from the Treo. What a great payoff for Colligan and Hawkins before the share price finally craps out.

    Yeah Palm sells more phones than ever, woo-hoo.... Any way you wanna spin the Centro numbers, you can't run from the fact that Palm is rapidly going bust. With less than $300M cash in the bank, Palm has less than 2 years before grinding to a complete halt.

    Meanwhile:
    1. RIM, Apple, Nokia, Samsung are kicking Palm's *** in innovation and quality
    2. We are still waiting for an Palm OS that can properly support WCDMA (aka UMTS aka 3G)
    3. Palm's share price is in the toilet. Under $6 when it was well over $20 more than 2 years ago. Compare that to RIM and Apple.....
    4. Many more issues than I care to mention but most are down to Colligan's steadfast refusal to open his ears and listen to customers. Think about that one... how many times have you seen someone here complaining that Palm doesn't listen? Leadership comes from the top, and so does market-unfriendly behavior like refusing to listen....

    Imagine how bad it would have been if Hawkins hadn't gone down on bended knee to Bill Gates, begging him to let Palm become a Microsoft licensee...

    Over to you, Centro fanboys....
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by highwaystar View Post
    1 million phones in 6 months, yack yack yack.... zzzzzzzzz

    what-evah!

    Motorola, currently the sickest puppy in the handset litter, sells that many phones every month. Palm is so lost now it barely warrants a mention in the press.
    It depends on the size of the company. Based on maket cap, Palm is not worth to mention in financial news. If Palm has a large marketing budget, we probably see in the press. How much money M$ spent on Xbox promotion? If I am not wrong, it was $500m, it is about the same as the market cap of Palm.

    The real story is the $32M loss last quarter PLUS a $25M write-off due to a lost bet on a dodgy finance instrument. How long can Palm sustain such losses when it handed over $900M in cash to shareholders? Yes, that's where all the money from Elevation Partners went (before you forget about them...) and years of profits from the Treo. What a great payoff for Colligan and Hawkins before the share price finally craps out.
    Did you read Palm financial statement in details or based on the press released figure and came out your OWN conclusion.

    Yeah Palm sells more phones than ever, woo-hoo.... Any way you wanna spin the Centro numbers, you can't run from the fact that Palm is rapidly going bust. With less than $300M cash in the bank, Palm has less than 2 years before grinding to a complete halt.
    No comment. Time will tell.

    Meanwhile:
    1. RIM, Apple, Nokia, Samsung are kicking Palm's *** in innovation and quality
    Only Apple is innovative. Any new features added by RIM, Nokia, Samsung already exist in the market. IMHO, Palm is innovative in user interface and user experience, so Palm can differentiate their products with other hardware manufacturers like HTC. Who is the first company introduce SMS thread message? It does not require any technology breakthrough but it does improve the users experience. That's why M$ added thread message in WM6.1.

    2. We are still waiting for an Palm OS that can properly support WCDMA (aka UMTS aka 3G)
    We only know Palm is developing a new Palm OS.

    3. Palm's share price is in the toilet. Under $6 when it was well over $20 more than 2 years ago. Compare that to RIM and Apple.....
    You did not mention the $9 cash distribution to shareholders. It should be "Palm share price is under $6 when it was well over $11 more than 2 years ago".

    4. Many more issues than I care to mention but most are down to Colligan's steadfast refusal to open his ears and listen to customers. Think about that one... how many times have you seen someone here complaining that Palm doesn't listen? Leadership comes from the top, and so does market-unfriendly behavior like refusing to listen....
    Are you talking about the old management or the new management? I found that people always want to improve but a lot of factors and constraints to limit them. For example, if Palm orders 20m of Centro, the cost is definitely lower than ordering few hundred thousand units. Say is more easy than do.

    Imagine how bad it would have been if Hawkins hadn't gone down on bended knee to Bill Gates, begging him to let Palm become a Microsoft licensee...
    What is the different between selling ACCESS's Palm OS and Microsoft WM? When Palm spinned off the OS company, it doesn't matter which OS Palm is selling because Palm is a hardware company. Why nobody comments about Sony Ericsson? Palm needs the money to substain the development of future Palm OS.

    This is only my personal opinion. Please don't feel offensive.

    This article is sound like "When Apple Hit Bottom".

    (http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/...21pogue-email/)
  19. #19  
    I wonder how much profit Palm makes on each centro sold? I think I can get a centro with a new contract for less than $100 on either sprint or ATT. Surely, sales of the centro cut into sales of the more profitable treo devices. Selling a million centros might be less profitable than selling 500,000 treo 755s.
  20.    #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    I wonder how much profit Palm makes on each centro sold? I think I can get a centro with a new contract for less than $100 on either sprint or ATT. Surely, sales of the centro cut into sales of the more profitable treo devices. Selling a million centros might be less profitable than selling 500,000 treo 755s.
    Don't forget, the carriers subsidize that cost. MSRP is I believe $399 for the Centro, so about $150 less than a Treo series, more or less.

    I suggest reading the transcript for their Q3 report. They are well aware of the "lower profit margin" and are riding it out till they release their new WM Treos will which begin to off-set these losses.

    They plan on returning to profitability in early 2009. In all seriousness, all these "problems" of Palm are well known to them and I suggest that others should read it to get the straight answers as to their long-term plans as they have bee fairly clear and upfront about their current and future positions.
    As we continue to increase Centro volume and rebuild our product line at the high end, we expect to see a shift back to higher margins and a return to sustained profitability.
    Last edited by Malatesta; 04/10/2008 at 04:41 PM.

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