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  1.    #1  
    "Everybody's" doing Linux on cellphones now. And ALP is released, including its Garnet layer. Between that and Android and LiMo and others, will there *really* be room for POSII as yet another Linux Mobile platform... will there *really* be significant developer interest in POSII 12-18mos from now, given the headstart that these other Linux Mobile platforms have... Just how many Linux Mobile platforms can the market, particularly the 3rd party apps developers market, support ?

    (and will all of this confusion lead everyone back to WM ?)

    http://www.accessdevnet.com/index.ph...-Platform.html
  2. #2  
    Don't forget Ubuntu Mobile!
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  3. #3  
    Ugh.

    Linux is such a PITA. Look at all the versions of linux on PC...how many do you use? How many of those do your friends use? Exactly. Linux is the promised yet undelivered dream. I recently tried GOS on a laptop--ran into wifi/video driver issues and part of the solution was to compile my own...err...yeah, no thanks.

    I honestly don't care about ALP and all of those other versions and neither will the market, they will be blips. I've said it before: you won't see ALP on these shores and the worst thing for ALP will be for Palm to release their own OS again--why then bother with ALP?

    The only two that matter are Android and POSII (assuming it comes out of course)--since those are the only two who have a shot at actual hardware/carrier distribution as well as brand-identity. At least Palm does it's own hardware and has broad relationships with carriers, testing and releasing phones.

    Even Android, imo, will suffer from lack of focus and conflicting interests amongst the 30 "members"--between Qualcomm's multi-tiered pricing system for their chipsets, mobile carrier interest and OEM penny-pinching, we all ready have enough "issues" with the current model, adding in a ton of other corps won't improve the matter.
    Last edited by Malatesta; 02/12/2008 at 12:22 PM.

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  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by CountBuggula View Post
    Don't forget Ubuntu Mobile!
    SWEET!!!
    Grant Smith
    A+, Net+, MCPx2, BSIT/VC, MIS

    eNVENT Technologies
    Use your imagination.
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    Sprint HTC Evo 4G

    DISCLAIMER: The views, conclusions, findings and opinions of this author are those of this author and do not necessarily reflect the views of eNVENT Technologies.
  5.    #5  
    Another tidbit in this vein: Vodafone CEO Sarin is now also calling for a consolidation in the different phone OSs. Basically, it is becoming clear that phone software/OSs are increasingly important in determining user experience and satisfaction. Yet there are too many for developers to support well. Therefore the field must be narrowed down to a few good ones... So Palm had better get a move on... otherwise it will be way too late to the dance...

    The wide variety of operating systems on mobile phones is hindering the growth of cool mobile Internet applications, according to Arun Sarin, CEO of network operator Vodafone.
    ...
    Mobile phone operating systems are key to that experience, he said, but there are too many of them: as many as 30 or 40, Sarin estimated.
    ...
    "We have to reduce that number. There's no way that developers of cool applications can develop for that many operating systems. If we had three, four, five, that would be better," he said.
    http://tech.yahoo.com/news/pcworld/1...Vy_fMfbh_6L5A5
  6.    #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    The only two that matter are Android and POSII (assuming it comes out of course)--since those are the only two who have a shot at actual hardware/carrier distribution as well as brand-identity.
    I have serious doubts that POSII will "matter", given its very-late-to-market status, drastically shrinking market share and no stated interest in signing up other OEMs/ODMs to use POSII. Why then would a developer spend the effort to develop for such a tiny market segment compared with WM, Symbian, RIM/BB and OSX/iPhone (and whatever Linux may rise to the top) ?

    Limo seems to have a sizeable following and promises real devices this year... as does Android. You may be right that other than Android, there will not be any Linux Mobile variant that will "matter"... but I don't see that the chances are good that POSII will matter either...
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    Another tidbit in this vein: Vodafone CEO Sarin is now also calling for a consolidation in the different phone OSs.
    This is actually old news/re-statement of old news:
    The world’s largest wireless provider, Vodafone, has announced plans to standardize all software used on its handsets, and has selected three mobile operating systems for all future devices, according to a report by Microsoft.
    Vodafone chose back in late 2006 to only use WM, Symbian Series 60 and Linux (whatever that means).

    It seems now Vodafone is trying to narrow down or contain what they meant by Linux as it's turning into a drunken frat party.

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  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    I have serious doubts that POSII will "matter", given its very-late-to-market status, drastically shrinking market share and no stated interest in signing up other OEMs/ODMs to use POSII. Why then would a developer spend the effort to develop for such a tiny market segment compared with WM, Symbian, RIM/BB and OSX/iPhone (and whatever Linux may rise to the top) ?

    Limo seems to have a sizeable following and promises real devices this year... as does Android. You may be right that other than Android, there will not be any Linux Mobile variant that will "matter"... but I don't see that the chances are good that POSII will matter either...
    The intention for Palm would be that their large library of legacy apps will work on top of the new system. They are also aiming not for enterprise (WM, RIM) but for mainstream consumers (iPhone, Android) and small business (?, maybe WM).

    I think you are also forgetting they have a very good working relationship with a lot of software designers and 3rd parties--like Normsoft, Dataviz, Hobbyist, Kinoma, etc. who all will get the SDK very early to release all the core/popular apps needed for POSII. In fact, the whole programming community for Palm (much larger than for Android) is encouraged to move over to POSII and supposedly Palm will help in that...we'll see.

    Palm has name & brand recognition which is a lot more than what a lot of other companies can claim. They also have a long history of releasing phones and working with carriers--those relationships matter. Same when working with OEM/ODMs. That is not something you just hop into, nor is marrying the software to the hardware, something which Apple, RIM and Palm have been very good at. Basically it comes down to experience and relationships, something which the others currently lack.

    All of Palm's devices are technically ODM (exception: Treo 500)--they don't make any of their own hardware, but they do design it. Nothing will change in that regard--HTC, Inventec, Chi-Mei, etc. will all sign up to make those devices just like they are now.

    Fact is, no one is going to launch ALP or Ubuntu mobile--or at least not at a level that will matter. Here in the U.S. even Symbian barely makes a dent. But I guarantee you this: Palm will have an easier time getting their devices/OS into user hands than will these other companies and that is the first step to getting market penetration.
    Last edited by Malatesta; 02/12/2008 at 01:17 PM.

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  9.    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    I think you are also forgetting they have a very good working relationship with a lot of software designers and 3rd parties--like Normsoft, Dataviz, Hobbyist, Kinoma, etc. who all will get the SDK very early to release all the core/popular apps needed for POSII. In fact, the whole programming community for Palm (much larger than for Android) is encouraged to move over to POSII and supposedly Palm will help in that...we'll see.
    Oh I hadn't forgotten... but do we have *any* indication that, relative to Garnet, the API for POSII will be roughly congruent or at least "culturally compatible" (a phrase borrowed from DEC when they described the move from the PDP-11 to the Vax) such that it will be "easy" to move existing 3rd party apps from Garnet to POSII ? If it is going to be just as much work moving an app to OSX/iPhone as POSII, it seems obvious that the better decision is to first go to OSX... (Apple has now overtaken Motorola, which is pretty startling, if you think about it...)
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    ... but do we have *any* indication that, relative to Garnet, the API for POSII will be roughly congruent or at least "culturally compatible" (a phrase borrowed from DEC when they described the move from the PDP-11 to the Vax) such that it will be "easy" to move existing 3rd party apps from Garnet to POSII ?
    Well, until we see the end product...don't know. All we do know is that Palm has said that backwards compatibility/integration of legacy was one of the main goals--how well it sticks to that, is unknown. But I suppose it is better than ditching the whole community which is what some have advocated i.e. a "clean start".

    Still, I think it works in their favor to have strong working relationships with many software developers and to court them from the get-go, keeping them informed of the OS, SDK, etc.

    http://www.brighthand.com/assets/6060.jpg

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  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    I have serious doubts that POSII will "matter", given its very-late-to-market status, drastically shrinking market share and no stated interest in signing up other OEMs/ODMs to use POSII. Why then would a developer spend the effort to develop for such a tiny market segment compared with WM, Symbian, RIM/BB and OSX/iPhone (and whatever Linux may rise to the top) ?

    Limo seems to have a sizeable following and promises real devices this year... as does Android. You may be right that other than Android, there will not be any Linux Mobile variant that will "matter"... but I don't see that the chances are good that POSII will matter either...
    Anyone else think it's funny that in one breath we can denounce Palm for not signing up other OEMs to use POSII, and then in the next praise the iPhone for grabbing huge amounts of market share by doing the exact same thing? Nobody but Apple makes iPhones, and they're doing quite well for themselves.

    And while brand recognition is important, it can also hurt. I think Palm's got some pretty bad recognition right now (one of the reasons they call their new phone a Centro and not a Treo) that they could use to get away from.

    There's plenty of other examples of bad brand recognition. Remember Packard Bell? Yeah everyone remembers them...and remembers how bad those computers were. They ain't round no more, either.
    Visor Edge + VisorPhone -> Samsung i300 -> Treo 300 -> Treo 600 -> Treo 700p -> Treo 755
  12. #12  
    Remember how quickly those 3rd party apps came out for the Foleo?

    I am expecting 3rd party development for POSII to be no different. That shows how their relationships are with these developers. If you ask them about working with Palm, they would almost always say it is a positive experience.
  13.    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by CountBuggula View Post
    Anyone else think it's funny that in one breath we can denounce Palm for not signing up other OEMs to use POSII, and then in the next praise the iPhone for grabbing huge amounts of market share by doing the exact same thing? Nobody but Apple makes iPhones, and they're doing quite well for themselves.
    mmm... seems like you are mixing up causality and attribution here...

    I don't know anybody "praising" Apple for not signing up other OEMs. And Apple has been generally condemned for closing off 3rd development on the iPhone. And yes Apple has grabbed "huge amounts" of market share, but not necessarily because they haven't signed up other OEMs.

    And we denounce Palm mostly because they *haven't* "been doing quite well for themselves". The not-signing-up-other-OEMs bit is just one of the many reasons that we speculate that Palm has made mistakes about. It is also part of the "before and after", i.e. before, when Palm was doing well, Palm also had quite a few OEM customers, whereas now Palm let them all find greener pastures (WM, Linux, whatever). Palm wants a different business model than 5 years ago, *fine*, its their prerogative. But, hello, between whatever business plan they now have, and its execution -- well it ain't working...

    At this level, the praise and denouncements are about their respective bottomline performance in the market, irrespective of their individual business plans...
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    mmm... seems like you are mixing up causality and attribution here...

    I don't know anybody "praising" Apple for not signing up other OEMs. And Apple has been generally condemned for closing off 3rd development on the iPhone. And yes Apple has grabbed "huge amounts" of market share, but not necessarily because they haven't signed up other OEMs.

    And we denounce Palm mostly because they *haven't* "been doing quite well for themselves". The not-signing-up-other-OEMs bit is just one of the many reasons that we speculate that Palm has made mistakes about. It is also part of the "before and after", i.e. before, when Palm was doing well, Palm also had quite a few OEM customers, whereas now Palm let them all find greener pastures (WM, Linux, whatever). Palm wants a different business model than 5 years ago, *fine*, its their prerogative. But, hello, between whatever business plan they now have, and its execution -- well it ain't working...

    At this level, the praise and denouncements are about their respective bottomline performance in the market, irrespective of their individual business plans...
    Ok I admit I should have worded it slightly differently to say that everyone's praising Apple's success while they're doing the same thing. I didn't mean to say that people are praising Apple's closed-ness. The point I was trying to make is that opening up to 3rd party OEMs isn't a requirement for being successful, as proved by Apple.

    For the record, I hate the fact that Apple plays the game that way, I personally don't like Apple at all and would much prefer to go back to the days when PalmOS devices were manufactured by myriad manufacturers.

    I was just trying to provide a bit of point/counterpoint.
    Visor Edge + VisorPhone -> Samsung i300 -> Treo 300 -> Treo 600 -> Treo 700p -> Treo 755
  15. #15  
    Personally, I think Google's Android has the best chance in the mobile Linux market. They have the money, resources and partners to make it happen big. Forget the others, they haven't a chance, especially Palm.

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