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  1. #41  
    I think that google will actually help out Palm. With the weight of google forcing open standards, it will give Palm a chance to not be so limited with what type of hardware the carrier will allow. The other thing I see helping is Senate bill S.2033 the Cell Phone Consumer Enpowerment Act just the threat of that is starting the carriers to rethink their ways.
  2. roams11's Avatar
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    #42  
    Quote Originally Posted by MobileGuy View Post
    Of course we're all speculating, but to say that such speculation is "inane" is silly. The industry is in constant flux, and thinking ahead is a critical part of the business. As a user, investor, and participant in the industry, many of us have to make bets on where things are going in the short and longer-term. To deny Palm is in trouble is to deny reality. And when a company is struggling and faces direct competition from some of the biggest and smartest players in the industry, speculating their eventual demise (or absorption) is a rational conclusion. But if you feel strongly that this talk of Palm's demise is really so ridiculous, I suggest you get all the $ you can and invest it in Palm, since its very low stock price is based squarely on this inane speculation.
    Not true- Palm's stock just paid $9/share to shareholders. The stock was adjusted downward to reflect this- something rational investors expect. As far as stock goes, it's really a question of how long you want to wait for a return on investment.
    Most people who are successful have overlooked the meme and bought stock when prevailing perceptions dictated otherwise, and held on to it long enough to reap the benefits. Case in point, brought up earlier, is Apple.
    Its all speculation, but people put up with under-performance from Apple for years before rewards were reaped. Palm's stock went up when they canceled Foleo I because people saw it as a good long term move. Apple's stock took a dive when they lowered the price of the iPhone because it didn't play well into investor's long term view of how Apple does things.
    Please don't make the mistake of judging stock price as the overall indicator of a company.
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  3. #43  
    I love the opinions in this thread. And that comment about scour skittles. Good quote from Malatesta as well.

    Agree w/ cardfan & treosensei - Palm is sick, but has the best current SMART phone (thought the round robin will challenge that).

    However, I don't agree that Google presenting a new OS is no big deal. Obviously, producing an OS is a lot different then a search engine. However, to dismiss Google would be a bad choice. Remember that company Netscape? or program Lotus? MS didn't make spreadsheets or web browsers, but they had the money and desire to dominate that product and did.

    The open source is also key - Look at Palm as the example. How can a 5/6 yr old OS continue to be used on phones today? 3rd party applications. There is a 3rd party app for everything. And, w/ Android, the OS is not tied to one company (like Palm os to Palm or WM to MS) but instead usable by everyone for there phone. Increasing the support of the OS across companies.

    To bring it back to the thread topic: Palm is really in trouble. More so then the last few years. The string of news, both good and bad, has been coming quick. From the foleo screw up, to the Centro 500 releases, to Elevation Partners deal (good points by serchend above), to the 700P MR screw up (IMO absolutely unacceptable and the reason i stopped purchasing Palm products) the new just keeps on coming. Oh don’t forget the engadget article.

    Palm did NOT position them selves as a sleeper (sorry bulls96). They have made various mistakes from Cobalt, to the recent Linux on foleo mess up. They will need to address the Android OS ASAP. 2 options : Get their OS out quicker then Android or dump there OS and Jump on the Android bandwagon. They can still get all their Palm OS ops on the OS; why not join the party.
    Last edited by B-model; 11/07/2007 at 11:55 AM. Reason: fixed some of the spelling/grammer errors.
    da Gimp

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  4. #44  
    I have't slogged through all these threads, but I think by the time Palm releases a new Linux based smartphone in mid '09 (if they can even achieve that--based on past performance I'm not optomisitc they'll ever succeed) it may be too late. Windows Treos may keep Palm alive, but between Windows, Google and, hopefully, ALP, I'm not sure they'll be any room left for a new P OS.

    Palm, IMHO, would be better off swallowing their pride and licensing ALP. If Palm were first to market with this OS, a touchscreen, and great one-handed keyboard, they could stage a dramatic revival.
    Bob Meyer
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  5. #45  
    Quote Originally Posted by roams11 View Post
    Not true- Palm's stock just paid $9/share to shareholders. The stock was adjusted downward to reflect this- something rational investors expect. As far as stock goes, it's really a question of how long you want to wait for a return on investment.
    Most people who are successful have overlooked the meme and bought stock when prevailing perceptions dictated otherwise, and held on to it long enough to reap the benefits. Case in point, brought up earlier, is Apple.
    Its all speculation, but people put up with under-performance from Apple for years before rewards were reaped. Palm's stock went up when they canceled Foleo I because people saw it as a good long term move. Apple's stock took a dive when they lowered the price of the iPhone because it didn't play well into investor's long term view of how Apple does things.
    Please don't make the mistake of judging stock price as the overall indicator of a company.
    Agreed and good points. And we should look at the underlying fundamentals, such as the positioning in the industry, the vision, the competition, etc. In most of these areas, however, things look at the best, very difficult for Palm, and at the worst, quite dire. I'm not arguing that they are done for.. it just seems that they are loosing ground faster than before. 2 years ago if you wanted a decent pda-style phone, there were only a few alternatives. Now there are many, and with Apple and Google in the game, things are moving quickly to a new level. Do you think they have what it takes to do something great here? Do you see evidence of that in anything they've done over the past couple of years? They seem to be barely holding on to me...
    Psion 3a > Palm Vx w/ Omnisky > Blackberry 850 > Treo 300 > Treo 600 > Treo 650 > Treo 700P > Apple iPhone
  6. efudd's Avatar
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    #46  
    I read a hands on in another forum about the ALP thing. There's really an oppurtunity there for someone to get linux and palm OS all in one onto a device.

    Why doesn't ALP just ask HTC to make them a phone to put it on? Isn't that sort of what Palm does.did with HTC?

    HTC certainly seems to have piles more hardware goodies then palm.
  7. roams11's Avatar
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    #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by MobileGuy View Post
    Do you think they have what it takes to do something great here? Do you see evidence of that in anything they've done over the past couple of years? They seem to be barely holding on to me...
    Thanks MobileGuy for the comments and I'll give it a try to respond to your questions.
    My guess is they've lacked focus and have suffered a crisis of direction. This only comes from the top. But through it all, they've managed to put out some very good devices. And they just dropped the bottom out of the smart phone market with the Centro, which is a sure sign of the end of this ancient OS's product life cycle.
    They need something reliable and new and compatible fairly quick. I think they can do something great, still- definitely. The obvious frustration is they are looking past 2008 for the Palm side of their business, when this week alone we see Access has what they need, from all measures, plus the HUGE Google announcement.
    Imagine if someone else signs up with Access, if they haven't already based on Access' dodginess on the subject, and 'builds a better Palm'. Would you feel compelled to be loyal to Palm if a better device ran all present apps in a vastly superior OS? For this reason alone Palm should be working with Access beyond Garnet.
    I hope Elevation Partners sees this possibility (if Access truly is ready to launch the new OS) and makes the necessary moves. It might be time to consider changes in Palm's leadership. New blood and energy without the biases of the past may be needed if they embrace Access. Just some thoughts based on your questions.
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  8. efudd's Avatar
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    #48  
    I don't know that there's really much space for them to differentiate themselves anymore. Their support clearly sucks now- the 700p is essentially a debacle. The form factor they started has been copied by tons (blackjack, Q, curve, etc). ALP seems to have built a better mousetrap in terms of the OS and a year or 18 months sooner. The only thing left that really sets them apart are the UI tweak sort of things that they did to the WM treo's and 3rd party developers seems to be able to whip that stuff out pretty quick if MS doesn't wholesale steal the idea for their next version of the WM.

    Even the rumored 800 isn't really anything stellar- it's just incremental sounding. And again the increments that palm has been doing are at a glacial pace while everyone else is sprinting to add tidbits.

    Palm needs to come up with some great new OS, with some great new unthought of form factor, with some amazing UI enhancements to gain the indisputable lead that they once held. It just doesn't seem like they have it in them, but even assuming they do it's 12-18 months away before they can pull it off.

    The big dogs are now pissing all over the playground marking territory- MS is pretty well entrenched at this point, Google is getting involved, the only thing left you need to complete the trifecta of doom would be for amazon or ebay or exxon to decide to throw some of their huge money around too.

    I don't see palm going out of business anytime soon but they sure aren't going to be the market driver they once were. They essentially are Tivo.
  9. #49  
    It's funny, as I started reading this thread I thought "if this is supposed to kill Palm, what about ALP?" It has the Linux core, Access' custom and new UI, AND Garnet backwards-compatibility. Plus its just about ready to roll, no?

    Hate to toot Apple's horn, but since the iPhone was announced then released it has become a mad dash to the UI finish line. This is a very big time in mobile land!

    HTC has released the touch, with its new touch interface. Now MS is rushing PHOTON to the table- so fast that it might keep the Windows Mobile 6 name. And check out the NEW devices coming out. Palm Treo 500v. It has another interface layer on top of wm to improve usability. The Sammy i780 has it too. Rumor is that it was a vodafone request, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was MS as well.

    I really shouldn't give Apple too much credit though. Everyone knew for a long time that WM was great, but very clunky to use. If it wasn't Palm OS would have died a long time ago. Microsoft was already working on this, I guess Apple just made them speed it up a little.

    Taking all of that into consideration, it really seems like Palm may be late to this party. But it won't KILL Palm. Palm OS still does a lot of things better than others- much faster than wm and more versatile than OSX Mobile. Just add better stability and multitasking and I would consider returning to Palm...
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    #50  
    Quote Originally Posted by ~Q~ View Post
    You must have grown up under a rock or something. The PalmOS, now Garnet, defined the mobile OS world.

    It was not only earth shattering, it was revolutionary.

    I agree with you that Palm OS looks like a dinosaur now, but in it's day it was ground breaking.

    Let's hope Palm can do this again.
    but think back..Palm didnt do it. it was Handspring that was so revolutionary.
    Palm took over what Handspring started and its been pretty stagnant ever since.
    M505 -> M515 -> Kyo6035 -> Kyo 7135 -> Treo 600 ->Treo 650 -> Treo 700P -> Treo 700 WX -> Samsung Saga VZW
  11. roams11's Avatar
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    #51  
    Wouldn't releasing a new Access Palm OS and continuing to work on the next generation in-house simply put Palm on the same level of development and release that we see from everyone else? They are playing catch up from a solid OS, not such a bad position, but still, it's been 5 years.
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  12. efudd's Avatar
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    #52  
    can someone seriously explain to me why palm is making their own linux and ALP has one too. Aren't the linux os's free? So couldn't palm just take the alp thing and then update it from there? Or take the google one and then add whatever they want on top? WHy start from scratch?

    Sorry I'm clueless in this regard so i need some 'splaining.
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    #53  
    Efudd, Here's the time-line that got us here, your guess is as good as mine why they haven't reintegrated ALP.
    2003 Palm splits in two
    2005 Access buys Palmsource
    2006 Access/Palmsource dumps Garnet for Linux
    2007 Palm abandons Access to develop its' own OS
    Last edited by roams11; 11/08/2007 at 11:27 AM. Reason: meant ALP, not Garnet
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  14. efudd's Avatar
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    #54  
    oh, I've been around since the treo 600 and been paying half attention (just half though- LOL) so I know the history.

    But my questions is- besides ego's why would you want to develop another version of linux? Why would anyone? Isn't the point of Linux that the developers all share and learn from each other? So why in the world would you want "your own" linux and not just take someone elses and built on top of it.

    Palm presumably pays MS to built ontop of WM- right?

    But if it's linux aint it free- so why not take googles free version and build on top of that rather than WM?

    I sort of get ALP is putting something like a Palm OS emulator on top of linux so you would be buying that and there would be a cost but why not take google's freebie?
  15. #55  
    Quote Originally Posted by roams11 View Post
    Efudd, Here's the time-line that got us here, your guess is as good as mine why they haven't reintegrated ALP.
    Just taking a stab at one possible reason:

    Palm would have to license ALP from Access.

    The terms that Access sets for this license may not be...so beneficial to Palm. I mean there are all sorts of issues like cost of the licenses, can Palm modify it and to what extent, etc. (This may also explain why there does not appear to be much public support for ALP). Think of what happened to Access/Palm OS and how Palm was (if I remember correctly) not allowed to touch the kernal.

    I know from the outside it seems obvious, but there is a major issue of control here and we don't know the terms of any deal with Access. Palm has repeated many times they want full control of the hardware and software. It's a stubborn approach and one that may not work out in the end, but if successful will be well worth it.

    I think they are really trying to avoid just becoming a re-brander of devices--throwing everyone else's OS on other people's hardware, which a lot of people here seem to be advocating. How does that make them different from HTC, Inventec, etc? Actually, it would be even worse as Palm doesn't actually even make hardware: all they would be doing is fiddling with someone else's software and fiddling with 3rd party hardware. That's a middleman that would be quickly eliminated from the market as redundant.

    As far as Android, it would be easier and better for Palm to continue making their own OS and just throw on aspects of Android into their system instead of the reverse. Nothing prohibits that route either.
    Last edited by Malatesta; 11/08/2007 at 01:19 PM.

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  16. roams11's Avatar
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    #56  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    Just taking a stab at one possible reason:

    Palm would have to license ALP from Access.
    This makes sense as to why they aren't going for ALP, but if using it allows them to remain more competitive between Garnet and their own OS in 2009...well, like you said, it seems obvious from the outside. They already are a re-brander, since Palm split with Palmone. Couldn't they climb out from this stronger using the latest available software?
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  17. #57  
    Quote Originally Posted by roams11 View Post
    This makes sense as to why they aren't going for ALP, but if using it allows them to remain more competitive between Garnet and their own OS in 2009...well, like you said, it seems obvious from the outside. They already are a re-brander, since Palm split with Palmone. Couldn't they climb out from this stronger using the latest available software?
    I mean, I see the rationale...but they're a very small company.

    If they were to go with ALP as yet another stop-gap (like WM--although I think that worked out well since it gets them deep into enterprise), they would have to devote resources from their OS project to ALP support and integration.

    It was already mentioned that the Foleo and Centro teams are now fully working on the new OS, which tells me they aren't sparing any engineer from the 'old' system. In fact, divvying up their teams onto 3 OSs was one of the main reasons to kill off the Foleo project, since it used a different linux from their phone OS.

    So I just don't think Palm would have the man-power to do all three and get that OS out in the next 2 years. And if they did get the new OS out, do they just dump Access and all of their new customers? Or do they support WM and two linux OSs, which are competing with each other? Seems like it'd get messy very fast.

    If they commit to ALP or Android, that's it. No second shot at making their mark as a OS/hardware company as they'd be locked in for the ride. Then Palm is officially just a re-brander and will loose in the market in the long run as I just don't see room for such an operation.

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  18. roams11's Avatar
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    #58  
    I see your points- and very much agree. It would be nice if Palm could come up with a win/win, fairly soon, like you mentioned with WM.

    Had they recently brought an OS to market other than one they pulled (Foleo) their abilities wouldn't be in question. They've had years now to show us that they are able to put something reliable together, yet they're telling us they need another 18 months.

    With ALP bound to be on someone's device before too much longer, the plan might need re-examining. Time is beginning to work against them.
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  19. #59  
    Quote Originally Posted by roams11 View Post
    Efudd, Here's the time-line that got us here, your guess is as good as mine why they haven't reintegrated ALP.
    2003 Palm splits in two
    2005 Access buys Palmsource
    2006 Access/Palmsource dumps Garnet for Linux
    2007 Palm abandons Access to develop its' own OS
    What is not mentioned here are PalmSource's failures with Cobalt (PalmOS 6) and a first iteration of a Linux OS, not to mention their inability to deliver to Palm, Inc. some of the contracted features of PalmOS 5 and Garnet (PalmOS 5.4)). Access now owns the Intellectual Property known as Palm Desktop and Hotsync rather than Palm and we see how progress is coming for those who have Vista. If I were Palm, I would not be waiting on another company.
  20.    #60  
    Quote Originally Posted by Pattycerts View Post
    Everyone knew for a long time that WM was great, but very clunky to use.
    Everyone??? Great??? Says who. Win Mobile is buggy as hell. The only reason for its success is there is little else out there, OS wise, to use. The other mobile OSs are proprietary to their platform.
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