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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by morningstar1844 View Post
    That could be true but how are they going to woo back the Palm faithful. They say they have a loyal user base but I just do not see that they have a loyal user base. Palm has jilted their faithful one time too many with broken promises. How can the Linux Palm that we saw was to ship this year slip 18 months. This just goes to say that they have not been working on the OS until the demise of the device that was to woo and wow (Foleo). Such poor oversight! Palm owes more than that to it's shareholders. They have been only dreaming!
    I don't think a Linux smartphone was ever supposed to ship this year. That was just wishful thinking in the rumor space. Palm didn't acquire the rights to modify Garnet until 12/06. Based on their prior statements, it would normally take them two years after that to produce a new device.

    My guess is that product development slipped 6 months due to the arrival of Paul Mercer (the iPod guy) earlier this year and Jon Rubinstein more recently.
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    I don't think so. Last quarter, they sold 690,000 Treos (POS and WM) and 300,000 POS handhelds. If half of the Treos were POS, then annualizing those numbers works out to over 2.5 million POS devices sold in the past year. Sure, many of those sales were to prior POS owners, but still, it doesn't look like a shrinking user base.

    I will have to try to find it, but I recently saw a report that showed Palms market share decreasing over the last 2 years, while Blackberry and Windows Mobile have showed an increase.
  3.    #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    I don't think so. Last quarter, they sold 690,000 Treos (POS and WM) and 300,000 POS handhelds. If half of the Treos were POS, then annualizing those numbers works out to over 2.5 million POS devices sold in the past year. Sure, many of those sales were to prior POS owners, but still, it doesn't look like a shrinking user base.
    As you said, prior user base (isn't this something Palm prizes itself on, the loyalty of its base). This doesn't really tell us about the installed base however, but one can not ignore the decay rate of this installed base. I however doubt too many people are still using 2 year old phones or pda's, just due to physical breakage, and about 2 years ago Palm started selling WM devices.

    Of note is that Palm's sales have been pretty steady, at around 1 million per quarter, split between their PDA and Smartphone business.

    I submit therefore, just as the WM percentage of sales increased, so the installed base of PalmOS devices went down.

    Surur
  4. #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    I will have to try to find it, but I recently saw a report that showed Palms market share decreasing over the last 2 years, while Blackberry and Windows Mobile have showed an increase.
    Their market share is plummeting because the smartphone market is growing rapidly, as are the sales of its competitors - while Palm is holding steady.
  5.    #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    Their market share is plummeting because the smartphone market is growing rapidly, as are the sales of its competitors - while Palm is holding steady.
    My point is that if the installed base is holding steady while the portion of WM devices being sold into this installed base is growing, logically the portion of PalmOS users must be shrinking.

    By analogy - if you have a container filled with water and oil, and you keep adding oil, but the fluid level does not rise, it must mean the water must be being siphoned of.

    Surur
  6. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    As you said, prior user base (isn't this something Palm prizes itself on, the loyalty of its base). This doesn't really tell us about the installed base however, but one can not ignore the decay rate of this installed base. I however doubt too many people are still using 2 year old phones or pda's, just due to physical breakage, and about 2 years ago Palm started selling WM devices.

    Of note is that Palm's sales have been pretty steady, at around 1 million per quarter, split between their PDA and Smartphone business.

    I submit therefore, just as the WM percentage of sales increased, so the installed base of PalmOS devices went down.

    Surur
    I'd guess that people use smartphones over 2 years on average, and PDAs over 4 years on average.

    To judge whether the user base is growing or shrinking, one would have to compare POS sales over the last year to sales of POS Treos 2 years ago and PDAs 4 years ago.
  7. #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    My point is that if the installed base is holding steady while the portion of WM devices being sold into this installed base is growing, logically the portion of PalmOS users must be shrinking.

    By analogy - if you have a container filled with water and oil, and you keep adding oil, but the fluid level does not rise, it must mean the water must be being siphoned of.

    Surur
    Sales are flat relative to the prior year, but much higher than 2+ years ago.
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    Their market share is plummeting because the smartphone market is growing rapidly, as are the sales of its competitors - while Palm is holding steady.
    I dont see how this can be considered in anyway positive for Palm. They owned the smartphone market at one time, and if they continue at this pace, they will soon be considered a niche market (like the sidekick).
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    I dont see how this can be considered in anyway positive for Palm. They owned the smartphone market at one time, and if they continue at this pace, they will soon be considered a niche market (like the sidekick).
    I don't think it's a positive thing. I'm just saying that the company isn't going out of business despite the deep disappointment of the Palm power users in the lack of POS development. A lot of people tend to be over dramatic, saying it's too late or "game over." But given the projected growth of the smartphone market, I don't think it'll be too late to hit a homerun 2 years from now, or even 5 years from now. Whether Palm will be able to is an entirely different question. That's anybody's guess. They've got a new leader with an impressive track record, but he's working with a corporate culture of incremental improvements and minimalist specs.
  10.    #30  
    All those numbers are available, except for the POS/WM breakdown. I might waste an evening running the numbers.

    Surur
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    I don't think it's a positive thing. I'm just saying that the company isn't going out of business despite the deep disappointment of the Palm power users in the lack of POS development. A lot of people tend to be over dramatic, saying it's too late or "game over." But given the projected growth of the smartphone market, I don't think it'll be too late to hit a homerun 2 years from now, or even 5 years from now. Whether Palm will be able to is an entirely different question. That's anybody's guess. They've got a new leader with an impressive track record, but he's working with a corporate culture of incremental improvements and minimalist specs.
    I do not tend to agree. Speaking from the corporate world, once a company invests in a technology (for example Blackberry), and spends a small fortune on an infrastructure and supporting handsets, it becomes almost impossible for a company like Palm to ever regain footing there.

    Palm should probably focus on the consumer side (though apple might have something to say about that), because the corporate war is already lost to blackberry and windows mobile.
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    I do not tend to agree. Speaking from the corporate world, once a company invests in a technology (for example Blackberry), and spends a small fortune on an infrastructure and supporting handsets, it becomes almost impossible for a company like Palm to ever regain footing there.

    Palm should probably focus on the consumer side (though apple might have something to say about that), because the corporate war is already lost to blackberry and windows mobile.
    I think most of the smartphone market growth will come from consumers and small businesses in the long run.

    I agree that POS will likely lose the enterprise market.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    All those numbers are available, except for the POS/WM breakdown. I might waste an evening running the numbers.

    Surur

    Better you than me.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    I think most of the smartphone market growth will come from consumers and small businesses in the long run.

    I agree that POS will likely lose the enterprise market.

    I disagree. Some companies buy handhelds units in the 1000s.
  15. #35  
    A billion cell phones are sold each year. 160 million in the US. 5% of that, or 8 million, are smartphones.

    The rapid smartphone market growth will be driven by the migration of millions from feature phones to smartphones, as the 5% becomes 10%, and then 15%, then 20%. Unless the corporate world suddenly becomes more generous, or decides to replace landlines with cell phones in a big way, most of the market growth will be driven by individuals. That's why RIM and Palm are targeting the consumer space.
  16. #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    Palm should probably focus on the consumer side (though apple might have something to say about that), because the corporate war is already lost to blackberry and windows mobile.
    That's exactly what they are doing: the new OS is for consumers and small businesses.

    For enterprise they are using WM & they have a solid relationship with MS. They've stated this numerous times.

    10/25/07
    Joe Fabris, wireless solutions director for Palm, said on the sidelines at the CTIA Wireless I.T. & Entertainment show this week that the Foleo development had detracted from the work that needed to be done on the upcoming Palm Linux OS. He said both devices will have the same operating system. No dates have been announced, but it likely will be 2008 before a new Palm OS-based handset is ready.

    Meanwhile, Fabris says Palm is deeply involved with Microsoft on the pilots for the software giant's just-announced Microsoft System Center Mobile Device Manager 2008. That server will allow enterprise IT departments manage Windows Mobile smartphones as they would other computing assets, including over-the-air configuration and security through a mobile VPN.

    Fabris says about 300 Palm Treo 750s are being used in the pilots with about 60 customers.

    Palm sees the Windows Mobile platform as its enterprise play going forward, Fabris says, while the Palm OS will be pedaled more toward consumers and small businesses.
    (source)

    (Also seems that there are conflicting dates on the new Palm OS...)

    WMExperts: News, Reviews & Podcasts + Twitter
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    That's exactly what they are doing: the new OS is for consumers and small businesses.
    Unfortunately, the consumer market is often driven by what is "cool" at the moment. I don't think there is any "cool" factor to an OS that hasn't been updated in 5 years, and has been surpassed in the "wow" factor by many other phones.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    Unfortunately, the consumer market is often driven by what is "cool" at the moment. I don't think there is any "cool" factor to an OS that hasn't been updated in 5 years, and has been surpassed in the "wow" factor by many other phones.
    I would add that the ID changes in the devices from the 650 through the latest 7xx and even the expected 800 aren't so dramatic either. They seem more like refreshes to me than new and inspired thinking. That the marketing fluff seems to make such a deal about them increasingly makes me wonder if even /they/ believe what they're shoveling.
  19.    #39  
    OK, I've dug up the numbers.


    Quarter....PDA Sellthrough....Treo Sellthrough...Total
    Q204 1330000 70,000 1400000
    Q304 1188000 115,000 1303000
    Q404 834000 126,000 960000
    Q105 766000 179,000 945000
    Q205 892000 190,000 1082000
    Q305 997000 282,000 1279000
    Q405 678000 442,000 1120000
    Q106 507000 470,000 977000
    Q206 708000 435,000 1143000 - WM Treo introduced
    Q306 765000 569,000 1334000
    Q406 490000 524,000 1014000
    Q107 490000 569,000 1059000
    Q207 500000 617,000 1117000
    Q307 456000 738,000 1194000
    q407 314000 750000 1064000 - WM Treo 50% of Treo sales
    q108 325000 689000 1014000

    Whats striking is the amazing stability of the total, always around a million. In fact if you ignore the first 2 quarters the average is 1.1 million, and the standard deviation only another 100 000. In fact if you do a linear regression the projection is of the average only hitting 1.2 million in 2 years! Basically Palm's unit sales are not growing, and the amazing stability of the numbers suggest Palm's Treo sales are cannibalizing their handheld sales, rather than generating new customers. (If you include those first 2 quarters the trend line points down, meaning negative growth!)

    If we consider the installed base to be the last 2 years of sales, it has remained completely steady at about 9 million, also for the last 2 years. With WM forming part of that 9 million its inevitable that the number of people using PalmOS has decreased. In fact, if we assume a steady increase in WM Treo sales to 50% in FY Q4 07, we have the PalmOS installed base dropping by nearly 1.5 million over the last 2 years.

    So, in short, there are likely less PalmOS users now than in the past, and the trend is just down, at an ever accelerating rate, as more and more of the Treo's sold run WM.

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 10/26/2007 at 04:08 PM.
  20. #40  
    They may just stop development on the Linux version, and just develop hardware for WM software, like HTC.
    Matty
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