
10/26/2007, 03:59 PM
#39
OK, I've dug up the numbers.
Quarter....PDA Sellthrough....Treo Sellthrough...Total
Q204 ………… 1330000 ………… 70,000 ………… 1400000
Q304 ………… 1188000 ………… 115,000 ………… 1303000
Q404 ………… 834000 ………… 126,000 ………… 960000
Q105 ………… 766000 ………… 179,000 ………… 945000
Q205 ………… 892000 ………… 190,000 ………… 1082000
Q305 ………… 997000 ………… 282,000 ………… 1279000
Q405 ………… 678000 ………… 442,000 ………… 1120000
Q106 ………… 507000 ………… 470,000 ………… 977000
Q206 ………… 708000 ………… 435,000 ………… 1143000  WM Treo introduced
Q306 ………… 765000 ………… 569,000 ………… 1334000
Q406 ………… 490000 ………… 524,000 ………… 1014000
Q107 ………… 490000 ………… 569,000 ………… 1059000
Q207 ………… 500000 ………… 617,000 ………… 1117000
Q307 ………… 456000 ………… 738,000 ………… 1194000
q407 ………… 314000 ………… 750000 ………… 1064000  WM Treo 50% of Treo sales
q108 ………… 325000 ………… 689000 ………… 1014000
Whats striking is the amazing stability of the total, always around a million. In fact if you ignore the first 2 quarters the average is 1.1 million, and the standard deviation only another 100 000. In fact if you do a linear regression the projection is of the average only hitting 1.2 million in 2 years! Basically Palm's unit sales are not growing, and the amazing stability of the numbers suggest Palm's Treo sales are cannibalizing their handheld sales, rather than generating new customers. (If you include those first 2 quarters the trend line points down, meaning negative growth!)
If we consider the installed base to be the last 2 years of sales, it has remained completely steady at about 9 million, also for the last 2 years. With WM forming part of that 9 million its inevitable that the number of people using PalmOS has decreased. In fact, if we assume a steady increase in WM Treo sales to 50% in FY Q4 07, we have the PalmOS installed base dropping by nearly 1.5 million over the last 2 years.
So, in short, there are likely less PalmOS users now than in the past, and the trend is just down, at an ever accelerating rate, as more and more of the Treo's sold run WM.
Surur


