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  1.    #1  
    As much as the recent announcements by Palm seem promising, I can't help but be a little concerned about the obvious clash between Palm's POS on Linux and ALP (Access's POS on Linux). They sound nearly identical. One can only assume that there was truly NO-WAY-IN-HELL that Palm could see itself working with Access, but the upshot is the rather unlikely notion that TWO variants of Palm-on-Linux will try to make it to market to battle MS-WM, Symbian et al. Clearly the market will not support two such offerings. It all seems like a recipe for failure, certainly for at least one of the two, if not BOTH. MS is very good at divide and conquer, but in this case it appears that Palm continues to make decisions that will hurt itself in the future.

    So what was the point ? Create Cobalt then abandon it, Announce PalmOS on Linux then let it stagnate, spin off PalmSource and let it flounder, sell it off to Access and let it develop ALP, buy back the Palm name, buy back PalmOS rights, announce a competitor to ALP... and mostly SQUANDER a 5 year headstart and top-of-the-market position and let MS-WM grow to dominate without even needing MS to resort to its usual unfair business practices... No need, just hand the market to MS and the other gorillas...

    I guess when you're on top, there is no where to go but down, but sheesh, Palm is sure in a hurry to go down...
  2. #2  
    I think Access will get approximately zero customers. That solves the potential market clash between Access and Palm and their respective Linux-flavored operating systems.

    If you manufactured mobile phones and you were looking around would you pick WM, Symbian, or Access's own Linux to build a phone around? I think Door Number 1, possibly Door Number 2, but never Door Number 3.

    That's because if you come out with a phone that is Palm-flavored "and it's just as good as Palm's own operating system" what do you think the great unwashed public would purchase?

    Or put another way, you're pitching a new phone to Cingular. "Buy our phone, we have an operating system 'just like Palm'" is not a good sales pitch.

    Access is in a "me too" position. They'll lose. Palm wins.
  3.    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by Tastypeppers View Post
    I think Access will get approximately zero customers. ...
    Access is in a "me too" position. They'll lose. Palm wins.
    Maybe... except that Palm has said that they "would not license it to other manufacturers." So unless they just said that to appease Access in the short term, which is possible... Palm's POL is not an option for OEMs like Moto and Samsung. And I believe Access doesn't have to say "just like Palm's", they have the rights to call it PalmOS.

    And I don't think it was ever clear to Palm how valuable its original licensees were (Sony and Handspring particularly). Both of them drove the PalmOS hardware way beyond what Palm itself was motivated to do. And it's been very obvious in these past few years, that Palm, with its "one-trick pony" (Treo), doesn't have the resources, or imagination, or both to produce the variety of phone/hardware offerings that the market wants. Where are the PalmOS flipphones ? Treo's styled like RAZR's ? Treo's that aren't bricks ? Palm *once* had this lead, with Kyocera and Samsung on board, but they killed it... and let the market veer towards MS-WM. So, certainly very stupid for Palm to lockup its Palm-on-Linux and not license it out...

    I don't disagree that there's a good chance that Access's ALP may bomb and not present too much of a problem for Palm in and of itself. But the point is: What was the purpose of all of this nonsense ? It can't of helped Palm ? Why did Palm sell PalmOS to Access in the first place ? It all just a pile of stupid moves that has made it very easy for MS to steal the spotlight...
    Last edited by neurocutie; 04/12/2007 at 01:42 PM.
  4. doc31's Avatar
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    #4  
    neurocutie good point. But I don't think there will be much of a fight. Palm is selling their OS on their devices no where else. WM, Symbian and Access can fight between each other for HTC, Samsung and such to buy their OS while Palm is focused on its devices. Plus they'll be pushing out WM.
    By the look of things Access' OS isn't a Garent "wanna-be" but I don't know.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    Maybe... except that Palm has said that they "would not license it to other manufacturers." So unless they just said that to appease Access in the short term, which is possible... Palm's POL is not an option for OEMs like Moto and Samsung. And I believe Access doesn't have to say "just like Palm's", they have the rights to call it PalmOS.
    Actually, Access's OS built on the PalmOS 5 is called GarnetOS. Palm bought the rights back to the name PalmOS, so Access can't say that their OS is PalmOS. Thus, as was said before, it seems they will be in the 'me too' catagory at the end of this year.
  6. vw2002's Avatar
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    #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by neurocutie View Post
    Maybe... except that Palm has said that they "would not license it to other manufacturers." So unless they just said that to appease Access in the short term, which is possible... Palm's POL is not an option for OEMs like Moto and Samsung. And I believe Access doesn't have to say "just like Palm's", they have the rights to call it PalmOS.

    And I don't think it was ever clear to Palm how valuable its original licensees were (Sony and Handspring particularly). Both of them drove the PalmOS hardware way beyond what Palm itself was motivated to do. And it's been very obvious in these past few years, that Palm, with its "one-trick pony" (Treo), doesn't have the resources, or imagination, or both to produce the variety of phone/hardware offerings that the market wants. Where are the PalmOS flipphones ? Treo's styled like RAZR's ? Treo's that aren't bricks ? Palm *once* had this lead, with Kyocera and Samsung on board, but they killed it... and let the market veer towards MS-WM. So, certainly very stupid for Palm to lockup its Palm-on-Linux and not license it out...

    I don't disagree that there's a good chance that Access's ALP may bomb and not present too much of a problem for Palm in and of itself. But the point is: What was the purpose of all of this nonsense ? It can't of helped Palm ? Why did Palm sell PalmOS to Access in the first place ? It all just a pile of stupid moves that has made it very easy for MS to steal the spotlight...

    Yep. Right on the money, neurocutie. Points made perfectly.
    I gotta have more cowbell
  7. #7  
    Palm's licensees (Sony, Handspring, Samsung, who else?) did add muscle, market share, and innovation to the Palm platform. And yes, the whole Palm corporate strategy over the last few years really ate rotten bananas.

    Maybe they can pull it off. Apple, in its dark years, licensed clones. Then it yanked that and took back the rights so that it became the sole source of Macs. Maybe Palm is hoping to replicate that success. Time will tell.

    It remains to be seen whether the management skills are there. I gotta admit that there seems to be a clarity of vision and willingness to doggedly pursue a goal. That wasn't so obvious before. So maybe there is hope.

    The other problem is lack of capital. Palm is a small fish in the capital markets. Let's say they have the brainpower, management skill, will, and dogged persistence to push forward. Do they have enough money and assets to stand and deliver one product after another over the next 24 months in order to build some momentum and cash flow?
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by vw2002 View Post
    Yep. Right on the money, neurocutie. Points made perfectly.
    except that this is incorrect.

    And I believe Access doesn't have to say "just like Palm's", they have the rights to call it PalmOS.
    As Musicman said, Palm owns the Palm name. Access's version is called Garnet OS.
    Last edited by johncc; 04/13/2007 at 05:10 AM.
  9. #9  
    Wow, couldn't have said it better myself 3 posts up.
  10. #10  
    I hate to be in Access's shoes...

    Poor guys, were scr*w*d by Palm, who sold, then bought back the rights to "Palm." In this transaction, Access was left holding an aging and dying PalmOS (GarnetOS), a still-born (Cobalt), and an ill-conceived (APL) that nobody wants.

    Palm, on the other hand came out shining, with the "Palm" brand intact, and (probably) a lot more money in their pockets.

    I think we need to credit Palm with a l-o-t more brains than we normally do (going by the comments on these forums).

    - mvk
    Last edited by GreenHex; 04/13/2007 at 08:22 AM. Reason: probably...
  11. #11  
    If the ACCESS OS is any good, they would have licensed it to a 3rd party phone already.

    This is one thing that never make sense, a Japanese company (whose country use handsets that are not competible with handsets outside of Japan what so ever), writing an open source based OS for american and chinese smartphone makers? That just don't make sense.

    One reason WM phones are popular in China is becasue Chinese don't actually pay for the OS on their phones.

    What were thay thinking? They (ACCESS) should have let Motorola buy PalmSource in the first place.
  12. #12  
    There was a time when PalmOS was the Gorilla....

    Anyway, Access clearly lost their biggest customer, but I have always believed they intended their OS for many other handsets, primarily those to be used on the huge NTT DoCoMo network in Japan. Docomo is a big investor in the company, and we know Japanese companies like to keep things in the family. They have also expressed a preference for Symbian and Linux vs WM, so the Linux-based ALP should find a ready home. The only issue I see really is whether Access can deliver, seeing how they use the same team who failed to deliver with Cobalt.

    From Palm's POV, clearly they wont have a problem finding a market, as they just plan to use it on their own devices. I think their time table however is ambitious, and unless their standards are very low they may end up finding even their own OS delayed, and devices meant for PalmOS II being released with Garnet. Unless PalmOS II stinks, the distribution of the Os will be limited by the same factors which limit PalmOS at the moment, ie. the number of people who want to use a Treo vs other competitive devices.

    Surur
  13. #13  
    Maybe I am not as informed as you people, but I have been in the Palm scene since i dunno, the Palm IIIe came out and I decided to give Palm a try. True to what all of you say, there was a time, when I acquired my first Clie, that Palm was king. But that was then. In my opinion, after WM came out, it started stepping on Palms toes. I still like the ease of use of the PalmOs, but atleast I was thrilled to hear that Access (ALP) was coming. I think that the PalmOs needs to be updated COMPLETELY, and I think Linux is a good way to go.

    Paul
  14. #14  
    well I was already to jump ship to ALP, then I hear PalmLinux is on its way ... for the same comments on this thread, if ALP doesnt blow away PalmLinux with performance and features then it will quickly dissapear. On another note, GarnetOS emulation is a fine thing, but give me WM6 emulation too and I'll happily jump into any Linux branded mobile OS
  15. #15  
    nobody is going to have to worry about alp in the US. It will never get here. All they care about is the far east market, and now they don't have to do an emulation layer for Garnet apps. Gassee and his crew have done it again. First there was BeOS, then cobalt, now alps.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Louis_Gass%C3%A9e
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by rkevwill View Post
    nobody is going to have to worry about alp in the US. It will never get here. All they care about is the far east market, and now they don't have to do an emulation layer for Garnet apps.
    Actually, nobody anywhere in the world is going to have to worry about APL (or Cobalt) anymore. I suspect that the Access website will disappear sooner than later.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by GreenHex View Post
    Actually, nobody anywhere in the world is going to have to worry about APL (or Cobalt) anymore. I suspect that the Access website will disappear sooner than later.
    Access does a lot more than ALP.

    Surur
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    There was a time when PalmOS was the Gorilla....

    Anyway, Access clearly lost their biggest customer, but I have always believed they intended their OS for many other handsets, primarily those to be used on the huge NTT DoCoMo network in Japan. Docomo is a big investor in the company, and we know Japanese companies like to keep things in the family. They have also expressed a preference for Symbian and Linux vs WM, so the Linux-based ALP should find a ready home. The only issue I see really is whether Access can deliver, seeing how they use the same team who failed to deliver with Cobalt.

    From Palm's POV, clearly they wont have a problem finding a market, as they just plan to use it on their own devices. I think their time table however is ambitious, and unless their standards are very low they may end up finding even their own OS delayed, and devices meant for PalmOS II being released with Garnet. Unless PalmOS II stinks, the distribution of the Os will be limited by the same factors which limit PalmOS at the moment, ie. the number of people who want to use a Treo vs other competitive devices.

    Surur
    Hi Surur!

    Maybe not -- I believe that they have been working on this for at least a year -- I was told of this back in my PPR days during the 700P Silly Season.

    Cheers, Perry.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by Perry Holden View Post
    Hi Surur!

    Maybe not -- I believe that they have been working on this for at least a year -- I was told of this back in my PPR days during the 700P Silly Season.

    Cheers, Perry.
    It takes much more than a year to make a good OS. Look at Cobalt, or ALP as an example.

    Surur
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    It takes much more than a year to make a good OS. Look at Cobalt, or ALP as an example.

    Surur
    Point well taken. . . . . . . . .


    however. . . if they started the day they turned their nose up at Cobalt . . . . . . . we could be into year 3 of development. . . . .

    Cheers, Perry (The Eternal Optimist)
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