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  1.    #1  
    People annoyed by baseless speculation should just leave the thread now....
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    Still here? No complaining later then.

    As mentioned, this thread is currently completely baseless speculation. I have no inside information, but I find this current silly season quite disappointing, so we might as well get started with next years.

    Palm has/will released 4 Treo's this year.
    700w(x) - January
    700p - May
    750v - October
    680 - November(ish)

    Now, having released 4 Treo's this year, they will have to do the same next year, to keep up with this fast moving market. The updates will be released in the same order they were released originally ie. CDMA first, then GSM.

    This means the 700 series are due for an update early next year, say around March, and the GSM series around December 2007.

    So, with the CDMA devices the closest, what upgrades can we expect?

    Antenna-less? Possible
    Slimmer? - probable, slightly slimmer
    Higher resolution screen - Unlikely
    WIFI - nearly mandatory - what else do they have to add which would be easy.
    Completely different form factor (radically slimmer, slider, suretype keyboard, scroll wheel, no touch screen) - not on the CDMA network probably.
    Bluetooth 2 with A2DP - definite
    Improved camera - definitely- 2 Megapixel likely.

    So - any more suggestions? What would the final package look like, and when will it drop?

    Surur
  2. #2  
    Drop? 2008. Palm is slow and also may not be able to afford more speculative releases, when the ones they did this year didn't hit it off too well. Verdict still out on the 700wx and 750v though. Maybe those will get their profits back up. If not, Palm will either have to build a truly WOW device, or quit.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  3. #3  
    I doubt we'll see 4 Treos in 07. Keep in mind that over a year went by between Sprint's 650 and the 700w/p.

    All speculation, of course:

    I predict maybe one new model for CDMA and one for GSM. Looking further, I see MS making the next WM update more user-friendly by incorporating Palm's tweaks, and HTC releasing a Treo-like device running the new WM OS. Palm will be pressed into a position where they have to innovate again. At that time, Hawkins returns and the first leaks of the Next Big Thing running WM6 and/or POS II emerge circa December 2007. If it's for real, Palm will survive and prosper. If not, the Palm doomsday sayers will have a speculative feast.
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So, with the CDMA devices the closest, what upgrades can we expect?

    Antenna-less? Possible
    Slimmer? - probable, slightly slimmer
    Higher resolution screen - Unlikely
    WIFI - nearly mandatory - what else do they have to add which would be easy.
    Completely different form factor (radically slimmer, slider, suretype keyboard, scroll wheel, no touch screen) - not on the CDMA network probably.
    Bluetooth 2 with A2DP - definite
    Improved camera - definitely- 2 Megapixel likely.
    I'd baselessly speculate that that is about right for the next top-end CDMA device, but I think when the 680 releases it'll become pretty clear that what the CDMA line up lacks is a cheaper device. I'd not be surprised to see a cheaper, lower spec device as the first out of the traps in 2007. Lacking EvDO and Wifi, 0.3 M pix camera, BT 1.2, smallish battery, thinner and lighter than current CDMA devices?
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    I'd baselessly speculate that that is about right for the next top-end CDMA device, but I think when the 680 releases it'll become pretty clear that what the CDMA line up lacks is a cheaper device. I'd not be surprised to see a cheaper, lower spec device as the first out of the traps in 2007. Lacking EvDO and Wifi, 0.3 M pix camera, BT 1.2, smallish battery, thinner and lighter than current CDMA devices?
    Ah, interesting... The next new CDMA device could be a CDMA 680. That should be cheap and easy enough to do, I might even say almost certain.

    Skfny, I'd rather not speculate about Palm's future. I assume they are planning as if they will continue to exist, and have about $500 million in cash in the bank to invest in new products, so I'm not unduly concerned they will disappear tomorrow.

    Whats the chance of them diversifying their form factors? Maybe a thin QWERTY slider?

    Surur
  6. #6  
    I agree with Marcol. Price is the next Palm target.

    Palm cannot have a "big hit" product playing at the top of the price scale. That is not where the volume is. At the top of the scale users expect high end features like wifi, large memory, great build quality, etc. At the middle of the scale, people are not as demanding.

    The BBC has an interesting story today about wireless web use. They claim in Europe about 10% of users ever access the internet on their phone. There are lots of reasons for that, but my point is that only a small percentage of the market uses the capabilities of their existing phones. The demand for high end features is very narrow. It might be lucrative, but it is fairly small.

    If any of that is true, the next phones should be POS devices at lower price points. POS is the perfect platform for more casual phone users. It's fast, easy to use and easy to learn. Multi-tasking capability is irrelevant at this level. Wifi won't matter much. Ease of use will matter. Learning curve will matter. If Palm can make a good phone that costs less than a RAZR and provides more features, they could have a hit.

    Motorola understands this (Q), Nokia understands this (E62). Both of those companies have devices that are/will be in the low $200 range. The carriers understand this. Nokia's E62 may be a dumbed down E61, but Nokia and Cingular realize that most users do not find the extra features and capabilities of the E61 worth the extra cost. Verizon's best selling phone is the Chocolate; a feature phone. It outsells the Q by a fair margin. Even at a $200 price the Q is a risk for many users.

    Every computer manufacturer makes multiple products with increasing price points and increasing features and capabilities. Not one of those manufacture's high priced, high feature products is their best seller.

    So, my baseless speculation is that Palm will introduce GSM and CDMA versions of a lower priced, lower featured phone and will do it within the next 3-4 months. Maybe sooner for the GSM version.
  7. #7  
    jcatan said
    The BBC has an interesting story today about wireless web use. They claim in Europe about 10% of users ever access the internet on their phone. There are lots of reasons for that, but my point is that only a small percentage of the market uses the capabilities of their existing phones. The demand for high end features is very narrow. It might be lucrative, but it is fairly small.
    I think the big problem with wireless web use in Europe is the price of data, not people not using the phone's capabilities. I would guess that in US the amount of Data use is MUCH greater as we have VERY cheap internet plans compared to Europe.
  8.    #8  
    There are ways to encourage data usage, but it needs to be set up out of the box. The Palm google search from the today screen is one, a weather plug-in that downloads the local weather is another.

    Access spoke of an Active Standby screen, that does more than just show the time, but constantly updates glansible information, such as weather, news, appointments etc, traffic etc. I am a bit disappointed they are not showing more of this innovative work in their new OS. I have no idea why they are being so secretive.

    Surur
  9. #9  
    'Cause it's still not ready for primetime?
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  10. TazUk's Avatar
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    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I have no idea why they are being so secretive.
    Must have got lessons from Palm

    I think a lot will depend on the choice of OS and that depends on when ALP is released and how good it is. They could of course release their own OS, which is much rumoured. Whatever I can't see Garnet being viable for future smartphone devices.
  11.    #11  
    Palm's recent statements about Garnet suggest to me it will be around for some time to come. I had expected the next generation of devices to use the next generation OS, but now I am >50% confident the next POS CDMA device will be Garnet also.

    Surur
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Palm's recent statements about Garnet suggest to me it will be around for some time to come. I had expected the next generation of devices to use the next generation OS, but now I am >50% confident the next POS CDMA device will be Garnet also.
    Is that based on the MTDN interview?

    http://mytreo.net/archives/2006/09/l...treo-750v.html

    Seemed pretty woolly - "We're committed to working with PalmSource. I can't say specifically how."
  13. #13  
    I predict palm releases ZERO new Treos in 2007. I think it will be mid-2008 before another new Treo appears (after the 680).
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    #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by howiecam View Post
    I think the big problem with wireless web use in Europe is the price of data, not people not using the phone's capabilities. I would guess that in US the amount of Data use is MUCH greater as we have VERY cheap internet plans compared to Europe.
    Very good observation, howiecam. In fact, several good points have been made in this thread. I think lower price points (for handsets and data plans) combined with enhanced ease of use would open the flood gates to data usage. I can not imagine NOT using my Treo to access information from the internet many times per day as as situations arise as well as send and receive email real time.

    I know my friends consider me a total geek in the same way I thought a co-worker was a total geek in 1974 when he told me he was going to buy a Radio Shack "Trash 80" PC. But I have noticed that my tailgate buddies will ask me questions now like "Does it look like the rain is going to come before the end of the game?" or "What's the score of the baseball game?"

    Having instant access in your hand to virtually all of the information on the planet and being connected by voice and email to anyone else fundamentally changes life. I suspect most users here have at least a good portion of the cost of their data/voice plans subsidized by their employers. When that capability is economically within reach of users who are not subsidized by their businesses, the data flood gates will open. Not sure when that will be. The cost of bandwidth - especially in Europe - is the major issue currently. My guess is that is why our European friends here say that Wi-Fi is essential.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by MrDs10e View Post
    I predict palm releases ZERO new Treos in 2007. I think it will be mid-2008 before another new Treo appears (after the 680).
    Bingo! People follow Palm for so long should have figured it out by now.

    The 650 had a run of 18 months until 700p showed up at mid 06. It would take same if not longer time for the 700p replacement to come out. If they can make it out before 07' Thanksgiving they are lucky.

    Here is my prediction of new Treo product line:

    Oct 06, Vodafone 750v
    Nov 06, Cingular 750v (680p?)
    Jan 07, unlocked 750v and (680p?)
    March 07, 700wx for Verizon, (it could come out sooner)

    Mid 07,
    TX replacement. It *could* be a ALP device or wm5.2/5.5/whatever.
    Zire 31 replacement PalmOS5.4

    fall 07 Sprint/Verizon EVDO Ver.A Treos
    Best case scenerio is APL and wm versions both release at the same time. Or each carrier get an exclusive window of 3 months.

    That's all you are going to get in 2007. One to two new EVDO phones.
  16. #16  
    Nice thread Surur; very well played. But not 4, no more than 2 and one will be a homerun attempt by Palm, either with Garnet (and crashing all the way to to bank) or with ALP/PalmLinux and swinging really hard for making a good stand. I would expect VZW or Sprint to want the antennaless thinner PalmOS Treo to slot under their W/WX and then something much better as a last one in the antennaless form factor to come from Palm's current Treo lineup.

    IMO, ALP would have to not just be a new OS bring out, but a new design. Maybe even similar to one of the designs here, with a bit od something unexpected (positive or negative) just to say how serious Palm is.

    No new Treos in Spring, just releases of the 680 on other world GSM networks, and maybe the CDMA. Palm HAS to come out with a new Treo (that is near top of the heap), lest they have already written the writing on the wall and are just playing tease till being bought out (which would be more possible next year once we see what the models are now and what funny language about future releases will come from CES).
    MMM | AntoineRJWright.com | BH | Jaiku

    Moved on to Symbian, but still will visit from time to time.
  17. #17  
    Wait a minute, those are actual phones with Palm OS? It doesn't even look the same!
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  18. vw2002's Avatar
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    #18  
    I'm betting palm will be purchased by microsoft or HP.

    this way, microsoft can make sure windows mobile gains still more marketshare across the smartphone niche, and eventually dominate.

    gates has his eye on palm. I think he's just letting them mature as much as they can on their own so as to make the merger more fluid and cost-effective.
    I gotta have more cowbell
  19. #19  
    THose phones use the palm vanilla PalmOS with just the addition of a launcher developed by Group Sense Limited. I did a review for one of those (a flip) a while back and honestly lack of BT and meager RAM (11MB) kept me from liking it more than the Treo 600.

    If GSL could rope in some of the 5way goodness of the Treo series, and then find carriers who wont charge them an arm and a leg to market them outside of Asis (the main reason they arent available) then they would have easily trumped the Treo 600 and 650.
    MMM | AntoineRJWright.com | BH | Jaiku

    Moved on to Symbian, but still will visit from time to time.
  20. #20  
    MS cannot buy Palm without the Fed jumping down their throats (even with Palm in the position they are in). The more likely targets are RIM, Dell, Toshiba, and (distinct but it would be a halfway decent idea) HP.
    MMM | AntoineRJWright.com | BH | Jaiku

    Moved on to Symbian, but still will visit from time to time.
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