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  1. #121  
    Jack, as you continue to justify why Palm is not giving people what they want, how about telling me this - According to Canalys, what percentage of total smartphones did Palm ship in Q2 2006? It involved a bit of reading comprehension and maths, but you clearly have the capability. Maybe you can bend that skill to understanding why Palm is not growing as well as it could, instead of explaining why they are not serving their customers.

    Surur
  2.    #122  
    Quote Originally Posted by Trevante
    I think what DHart is trying to say is that you can't just look at any website and say because there's only XX% of users complaining about wifi, that's the actual percentage of wifi. ...... I think 99.999999% of Treo owners want wifi, therefore, Palm needs to put wifi in their Treos before 99.999999% of their customers jump ship.
    Again, I am talking about "need" not "want". If it was there's I'd take it ....my ONLY point is that not having WiFi is not steering people away from there phone choices. If you are currently a Treo owner and you insist that you "nned" WiFi, then I gotta ask why the heck ya bought a Treo. My position is not whether you'd take it if it were there but "How many are not buying Treos cause they don't have Wifi".....not very many here obviously ot they wouldn't be hanging out on TC.

    For example, if you had to weigh various factors how would you weigh them ? For me it would be say:

    Phone reception - 20
    One handed useability - 20
    Programs (Basics) - 15
    Productivity Programs - 15
    3G - 10
    WiFi - 5
    Service Plan Cost - 10
    Can be used w/ GPS - 5

    Now to get a 10 on phone reception, I'd have to be able to get a signal 100% of the time....so if I get it 95% of the time, I'd give a phone a 9.5 outta 10, that's 190 points (9.5 x 20). So lets say phone A (no wifi) gets a 9.5 on one handed use and another gets an 8.5. That's a difference of 20 points.....phone A gets 0 points for WiFi but since I can only use WiFi on phone B 20% of the time, I gotta give it a 2/10.....2 x 5 is 10 points.....so ALL I am saying is that other factors are going to bear more weight in the average purchaser's buying decision than WiFi....simply because the infrastructure isn't there.

    I am not saying WiFi isn't useful, isn't fun or isn't anything else.....just that until you can use it every day, there's no way it's gonna mean as much to purchasers as phone reception, plan cost, usability and other factors.

    As for ya numbers, I can't agree. I am not saying that because only 5% of people complain that a phone doesn't have WiFi that that is the actual number.....there's margin of error just like there is in election polls where they get it right whose gonna win 99% of the time by sampling just 1500 people. There's a margin of error that depends on math (1-3%) and amargin or error which can be introduced by say if you only called all the millionaires in a zip code.

    The actual number may be 8%, the actual number might be 3 %. Given the fact that geeks tend to be the ones on forums and reviews sites compalining it's not unreasonable to assume that their "tech" desires are gonna be greater than the average Joe / Mary who just got a realtor's license and is overwhelmed trying to keep track of everything. So I feel if anything the 5% is high....maybe not here on TC but in the general population.

    But there's no way 99.99% of the people are saying I ain't buying a 650/700p/700w cause it don't have WiFi.....you bought one didn't ya ? I might like to have a salted rim on the glass containing my Frozen Margarita but it's not like I ain't gonna drink it cause the salt ain't there.

    And if 99.99% of Treo buyers feel so strongly about WiFi, why did they come home with a WiFi less Treo ? Why is the store owner where I bought my Treo telling me lonly a handful of the people walking in his store even ask about WiFi. Why is it as an officer in a national technical oganization, regularly meeting with the heads of companies in 12 NE states I have not yet found one single member whose company is even thinking about rolling out mobile WiFi ?

    If the cell phone salesman said to me today:

    1. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, they are the same price, I'd take it.
    2. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, the one w/ WiFi is $75 more, I wouldn't take it.
    3. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, the one w/ WiFi has only 2/3 of the battery life, I wouldn't take it.
    4. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, the one w/ WiFi has WM5, I wouldn't take it.
    5. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, the one w/ WiFi loses [insert feature here], I may or may not take it depending on what it was.

    In 12 or 18 months, the only answer I'd change is 2.....with more infrastructure available, it could be worth paying for.
  3. #123  
    Jack, are you contending that Palm is not losing ANY sales due to not having WIFI? You realize most Treo's are sold to PalmOS PDA users. They are not buying the Treo because its perfect, but because it is the only converged POS device available. When the WIFI-less Treo is tried on Palm-naive populations, such as Europe and Asia, it does not do very well at all. Maybe if it had more features it would.

    Surur
  4. DHart's Avatar
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    #124  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    For example, if you had to weigh various factors how would you weigh them ? For me it would be say:

    Phone reception - 20
    One handed useability - 20
    Programs (Basics) - 15
    Productivity Programs - 15
    3G - 10
    WiFi - 5
    Service Plan Cost - 10
    Can be used w/ GPS - 5

    Now to get a 10 on phone reception, I'd have to be able to get a signal 100% of the time....so if I get it 95% of the time, I'd give a phone a 9.5 outta 10, that's 190 points (9.5 x 20). So lets say phone A (no wifi) gets a 9.5 on one handed use and another gets an 8.5. That's a difference of 20 points.....phone A gets 0 points for WiFi but since I can only use WiFi on phone B 20% of the time, I gotta give it a 2/10.....2 x 5 is 10 points.....so ALL I am saying is that other factors are going to bear more weight in the average purchaser's buying decision than WiFi....simply because the infrastructure isn't there.
    Perfect example. This shows perfectly how you make up arbitrary numbers to lend "data support" to your OPINION - Your scale, weighed by your importance.

    Jack, I don't necessarily disagree with your opinion. What is disagree with is when you (or anyone) makes up arbitrary numbers and presents them as facts.
  5. #125  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    As for accessibility....Just used http://www.jiwire.com/ to find my public hotspot options within 20 miles

    Hotels - 6
    Starbucks - 7
    Borders - 3
    UPS Store - 2
    McDonalds - 1
    Restaurant - 2
    Library - 3
    Cell Phone Store - 1
    Airport - 1
    Office Building - 1
    SportsPlus - 1
    Other - 3

    31 public hot spots in 1,257 square miles of geographical area or an average of ONE every 40+ square miles.....whooo hoo ! Closest one is 12.9 miles away....5 are free, 2 of the 5 charge $4 an hour to park.
    Just to point out, JWire might not have newer hotspots or document *all* of the hotspots.

    Also, it fails to tell me that I have a free WiFi connection right here in my home that I can use. If it told me this I would freak out, but that is not the point. The point is, public hotspots are not the only hotspots that exist. A corporation can have WiFi coverage as well as a campus or even my own home.

    I can walk down my street and pick up about 10 different hotspots. There are about 30 houses in range. I can walk down the bigger street and see even more hotspots. Some are open (and might be available as public), but most are private.

    3. "You want the Treo 900 w/ WiFi or the one without it, the one w/ WiFi has only 2/3 of the battery life, I wouldn't take it.
    I have a solution to this. Do not leave WiFi on when your not using it. This will happen the same with 3G services. If you browse the Internet using a 3G connection your gonna drain the battery much quicker. The same with GPS or *ANY* communications method. I am sure that no company that sold a smartphone without WiFi with, say a 1200mha battery would sell a smartphone with WiFi with a 800mha battery. So, the only solution here is: turn off communications features when not using them and set power savings to max (i.e. shut off at 1 minute of inactivity instead of 2).

    Simple as that. Battery life is relative. Relative to usage. My Treo 700p's manual might say 3.5 hours of talk time (I am not sure if that is the really number, just made it up) and 3 days of standby (made up too). If I talk for an hour, then my standby time has dropped. Now, if I take the "Treo 900" w/o WiFi and the "Treo 900" w/wifi, that is turned off, and run them, I'll get the same standby time (basic usage). Now, of course if i turn WiFi on I am going to deplete my battery.

    Now, enough rambling.

    WiFi is important to some people and less important to others. I think Palm would benefit greatly by adding WiFi, or at least creating a WiFi and WiFi-less version. Or at least adding support for something like the WiFi card. Then, if you really want WiFi, you can go out and buy it (I mean the equipment). Plain and simple.

    -Donald
    Last edited by dkirker; 08/05/2006 at 07:48 PM.
  6. DHart's Avatar
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    #126  
    Quote Originally Posted by dkirker
    WiFi is important to some people and less important to others. I think Palm would benefit greatly by adding WiFi, or at least creating a WiFi and WiFi-less version. Or at least adding support for something like the WiFi card. Then, if you really want WiFi, you can go out and buy it (I mean the equipment). Plain and simple.

    -Donald
    Thank you, Donald. A well reasoned opinion stated as such. I would prefer integrated WiFi because it would not occupy a memory card slot, but as you said, to each his own. Plain and simple.

    - Dave
  7. #127  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    Again, I am talking about "need" not "want". If it was there's I'd take it ....my ONLY point is that not having WiFi is not steering people away from there phone choices. If you are currently a Treo owner and you insist that you "nned" WiFi, then I gotta ask why the heck ya bought a Treo. My position is not whether you'd take it if it were there but "How many are not buying Treos cause they don't have Wifi".....not very many here obviously ot they wouldn't be hanging out on TC.
    Wants, needs, it doesn't matter. We don't NEED color screens. We don't NEED EvDO/UMTS/HSDPA. But Palm insisted on putting color screens on the Treo, and even made the 700 series just becaue of EvDO. What makes you think that they won't eventually put wifi support in a Treo, even though a lot of people won't NEED it? People will want certain features whether they need them or whether they're even that useful.

    Not all Treo owners need data access everywhere they go; there are many that have a Treo because they need a phone and a PalmOS PDA and don't want to carry around two devices all the time. Why should someone pay $45 a month to Verizon when they'd only need to access the internet every once in a while?

    I am not saying WiFi isn't useful, isn't fun or isn't anything else.....just that until you can use it every day, there's no way it's gonna mean as much to purchasers as phone reception, plan cost, usability and other factors.
    On the contrary, there are certainly people who have chosen phones like the 6700 over the Treo just because of wifi (such as those who don't need 24/7 data access). And you're obviously thinking with an America-only mindset because in Europe, wifi is very important to buyers over there. That's probably part of the reason the Treo doesn't sell too well outside of the US. If other phone makers are pushing wifi which allows Europeans cheaper data access, and Palm comes in with a phone that only works on their carrier's expensive data plan, how well is the Treo going to sell in Europe? Probably not as much as it could sell if it had wifi.

    As for ya numbers, I can't agree. I am not saying that because only 5% of people complain that a phone doesn't have WiFi that that is the actual number.....there's margin of error just like there is in election polls where they get it right whose gonna win 99% of the time by sampling just 1500 people. There's a margin of error that depends on math (1-3%) and amargin or error which can be introduced by say if you only called all the millionaires in a zip code.
    I can't agree either, my number was exagerated just to show that there's no real reasoning behind it, just as there isn't behind yours (and if there is, many of us in this thread must be blind, because we can't see it at all).

    The actual number may be 8%, the actual number might be 3 %. Given the fact that geeks tend to be the ones on forums and reviews sites compalining it's not unreasonable to assume that their "tech" desires are gonna be greater than the average Joe / Mary who just got a realtor's license and is overwhelmed trying to keep track of everything. So I feel if anything the 5% is high....maybe not here on TC but in the general population.
    Then how do you get a proper number for the general population if all the websites and forums are for geeks? I don't think you can, at least not very easily or efficiently.
    Last edited by Trevante; 08/05/2006 at 09:13 PM.
  8. #128  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    Every business conceren does marketing studies. McDonalds don't put outlets on the corner unless the population is there. A high end clothing store doesn't put a store in a neighborhood unless demographic studies show there is not only sufficient population but also an average income of a minmimum level to support their product line. When Palm's done this, they obviously came to a conclusion that it wasn't quite yet prime time for WiFi.
    Hmmm. Some HTC, Nokia and SonyEricsson devices with integrated Wifi:

    HTC: TyTN, Wizard, Universal, Prophet, Breeze, Excalibur, Apache

    Nokia: N93, E61, N80

    SonyEricsson: P990

    I think this list has at least some devices that are very direct Treo competitors, so presumably HTC, Nokia and SonyEricsson have concluded that it is 'prime time for Wifi' in this market. It's notable that a couple of other Treo competitors, the SonyEricsson M600 and the Motorola Q, lack Wifi, but this is probably because these are small, light devices and the desire to maintain this form factor overrode any consideration of Wifi (which really needs a big fat battery to be of any use).

    Jack, Why would Palm's market research be so different to that of it's competitors?
  9.    #129  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol
    Jack, Why would Palm's market research be so different to that of it's competitors?
    I can think of several reasons:

    1. Palm is the 800 pound gorilla - By far the majority of the trade mags still giving the 700p their Editor's Choice award. The 650 was getting it before that. Now if you wanna raise in the rankings, you need something to differentiate yourself so what choice do manufacturers have other than to throw everything they can think out there and hope the market bites.

    2. Horse before the cart - Windows had USB long before ya could buy a rekiable USB device. I can buy a HSDPA phone but don't have many places to use it. Provided ya can meet ya price point, if ya can throw the chip in there, why not ? Perhaps the idea is to sell the customer or, more importantly, the reviewers on "well WiFi will be the next big thing and you are reday for it".

    3. Lotsa stuff out there but is it selling - http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=69

    I just returned from a short business trip to New Orleans and while traveling in the airport and on the airplanes I saw many mobile devices. The funny thing is that something like 95% of the devices I saw and heard (that default ring is distinctive) were Treo devices.

    It seems that most of the traveler's I saw using Treos were using Treo 650 devices so I think there is definitely still a market for Palm OS devices. I also believe these same type of buyers may enjoy using a device like the Nokia E61 that offers a similar user interface (and isn't sold with a Microsoft operating system), but supports higher functions like true multitasking, quick application switching, integrated WiFi and more. Nokia and the Series 60/Symbian OS need to do a better job of getting devices into the U.S. and marketing these devices to compete with the BlackBerry and Treo business user before I see Nokia E61 type devices on the road.
    The Q is the hotests selling handset right now and it ain't got WiFi.

    4. Maintaining Cash Flow - We all know that Palm needs to keep us feeding at the upgrade trough. Now what is "big enough" to make new users switch ? I think a CFO oriented strategist would say, "no way ya introducing 3G and WiFi in the same product". If it was there in the 700's, what could possibly be added to make you spend another $600 in 18 months ? Maybe ya won't use WiFi that much now but ya will in 18 months.

    5. Infrastructure - HTC, Nokia and Sony are all foreign manufacturers with worldwide presence and therefore dealing with different markets. Palm's sales are for the most part US/NA. The infrastructure here in the US pales to many of those where HTC, Nokia and Sony have a market presence.

    6. ROI - I think it's a given that Garnet needs a lotta "under the hood" work to make WiFi feasible, tho considering the sled, I often wonder. How "smart" is it for Palm to invest heavily in developing WiFi drivers for Garnet only to sunset it by mid 2007 (they might not meet that but that was the plan....tho considering their beef with access about missed deadlines, perhaps it was even sooner).
  10.    #130  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    Jack, are you contending that Palm is not losing ANY sales due to not having WIFI? You realize most Treo's are sold to PalmOS PDA users. They are not buying the Treo because its perfect, but because it is the only converged POS device available. When the WIFI-less Treo is tried on Palm-naive populations, such as Europe and Asia, it does not do very well at all. Maybe if it had more features it would.

    Surur
    Errrr ..... since when was Palm ever been a player in Europe ?.....Since when was Palm making a serious effort in Europe ? Palm publically announced their intention to seriously enter the European market by hiring a VP of International sales last November and starting with the introduction of Hollywood / Lennon. Now if they wanna introduce Lennon over there w/o WiFi, I'd say their expectations will fall short. Over here, non issue.....today.....12 - 18 months it will be a major issue.

    And people are not buying the Treo because it has POS.....they are buying the POS Treo because it is the best converged device out there as review after reviews shows.....not because of what it has but because of what it does and how efficiently it does it. Heck I'd be checking out the E61 if it had a touch screen.

    After extolling all the advanatges of the "technologically advanced" WM, the only thing you were able to come up with is "it can do WiFi" but on the flip side you are saying that most people are buying the POS version. Well if WiFi was so important to the general US populace, and WM is so "advanced" why isn't the 700w selling better ?
    Last edited by JackNaylorPE; 08/06/2006 at 10:51 AM.
  11.    #131  
    Quote Originally Posted by Trevante
    Wants, needs, it doesn't matter. We don't NEED color screens. We don't NEED EvDO/UMTS/HSDPA. But Palm insisted on putting color screens on the Treo, and even made the 700 series just becaue of EvDO. What makes you think that they won't eventually put wifi support in a Treo, even though a lot of people won't NEED it? People will want certain features whether they need them or whether they're even that useful.
    I certainly need a color screen, I benefit by it, perhaps I don't need 3G but I would benefit by it. However I can't benefit from WiFi with coverage at a fraction of a 1% coverage.

    And you're obviously thinking with an America-only mindset because in Europe, wifi is very important to buyers over there. That's probably part of the reason the Treo doesn't sell too well outside of the US. If other phone makers are pushing wifi which allows Europeans cheaper data access, and Palm comes in with a phone that only works on their carrier's expensive data plan, how well is the Treo going to sell in Europe? Probably not as much as it could sell if it had wifi.
    Exactly. Palm is an American company with by far the great majority of its sales in the US. Palm indicated that it was about to make a serious European push when they hired a VP of International sales in November 2005. It's also no secret that they plan to START that push with Hollywood / Lennon. Now if they choose to leave WiFi out of the European Lennon, I think that would be a mistake. Here in the US, with so little infrastructure available, it still won't matter to much people....the successor to the Lennon tho will have to have WiFi.

    I can't agree either, my number was exagerated just to show that there's no real reasoning behind it, just as there isn't behind yours (and if there is, many of us in this thread must be blind, because we can't see it at all).
    Make these go away:

    1. Gallup poll samples like 1400 - 1500 people with a margin of 2% in presidential elections. How often are they wrong ? Over the last 3 months 1,500 customers have walked into my local store interested in buying smartphones. The owner tells me that he can count the number of customers asking about WiFi per month on one hand. These are real not made up numbers from a guy in the business of selling phones. His livelihood is based upon stocking the right products, he knows the business. How do you discount his experience ?

    2. Here in the 23rd largest county in the US we have 0.000089 % coverage for WiFi. On average that's 1 out of 11,236 people having acess available at any point in time....or one hot public spot every 40 square miles....one free public hot spot for every 413 square miles. How do you discount this fact ?

    3. The article I posted that said 95% of the people the journalist sees traveling are using Treos. Has anyone come up with an article saying 95% of the people I see are using WiFi.

    Then how do you get a proper number for the general population if all the websites and forums are for geeks? I don't think you can, at least not very easily or efficiently.
    Well I wouldn't say they are "all" geeks but I would say the number of geeks and gadget hounds are much higher on the forums than in the general populace. You can't judge very well how the % will differ but ya can be pretty positive about which way it's gonna go. Therefore if anything, the numbers would be be conservative.
  12.    #132  
    Quote Originally Posted by dkirker
    Also, it fails to tell me that I have a free WiFi connection right here in my home that I can use. If it told me this I would freak out, but that is not the point. The point is, public hotspots are not the only hotspots that exist. A corporation can have WiFi coverage as well as a campus or even my own home.
    Again, if you are gonna type on a Treo when you have a full size KB and screen available, yoiu are doing it "cause you can" not because it is the most efficient tool available. I can hang up the picture my wife brought home today by getting my compressor and nailer outta the garage but I can be more productive with just a hammer.

    I can walk down my street and pick up about 10 different hotspots. There are about 30 houses in range. I can walk down the bigger street and see even more hotspots. Some are open (and might be available as public), but most are private.
    I can walk down my street with my wife and see 10 gorgeous women....how dores that change my sex life ?

    I have a solution to this. Do not leave WiFi on when your not using it. This will happen the same with 3G services. If you browse the Internet using a 3G connection your gonna drain the battery much quicker. The same with GPS or *ANY* communications method. I am sure that no company that sold a smartphone without WiFi with, say a 1200mha battery would sell a smartphone with WiFi with a 800mha battery. So, the only solution here is: turn off communications features when not using them and set power savings to max (i.e. shut off at 1 minute of inactivity instead of 2).
    Well that's my point....the new Nitro has only a 1200 mah battery comared with the 650/700's 1800.....why did this happen ? What did they squeeze in phsically so that the battery size had to be cut ?

    Simple as that. Battery life is relative. Relative to usage. My Treo 700p's manual might say 3.5 hours of talk time (I am not sure if that is the really number, just made it up) and 3 days of standby (made up too).
    700p 650 CDMA is 4.5 hours talk time.......650 GSM is 7.5

    WiFi is important to some people and less important to others. I think Palm would benefit greatly by adding WiFi, or at least creating a WiFi and WiFi-less version. Or at least adding support for something like the WiFi card. Then, if you really want WiFi, you can go out and buy it (I mean the equipment). Plain and simple
    No difference of opinion there.....especially in Europe whee it's much more common. All I am saying is it's not gonna put too much of a hurt on palm's financials with regard to US sales until there's more infrastructure in place. Now if someone else starts matching Palm's features and provides WiFi on top of that, that would hurt as people will say "all things being equal, why not ?" That's the key right now all things are not equal.....as long as the Treo remains easier to use and oifers what it does, WiFi isn't gonna be enough to make people make other choices.
  13.    #133  
    Quote Originally Posted by DHart
    Perfect example. This shows perfectly how you make up arbitrary numbers to lend "data support" to your OPINION - Your scale, weighed by your importance.
    Did you read the statement you quoted before responding ?

    Let me repeat it and break it down

    "For example, if you had to weigh various factors how would you weigh them ? For me it would be say:"

    "For example" - indicative of a single example being presented, not a compilation or indication of averages, percentages, statistics or anything else.

    "if you had to weigh various factors how would you weigh them ?" - question was asked how would you weigh them.....no response was provided....if ya wanna make a counter argument, ya gotta answer the question. That would then be your single example....again not an indication of statistics in the general populace.

    "For me it would be say:" - "For me" indicates one single user's opinion, not an indication od statistics or outlooks in the general populace.

    Now let's break down ya response:

    Perfect example.
    It's not a perfect example.....how does a statement of what is clearly my own personal outlook bear relevance to:

    -No. of hot spots per square mile quoted from a web site
    -Published article saying 95% of travelers that author sees are using Treos.
    -Store owners tally that out of approximately 500 smartphone customers a month, he can count those asking about WiFi on one hand.
    -User Review site where % of people saying that not having WiFi is a "con"
    -my personal survey of engineering business leaders in 12 northeastern states.
    -MotoQ being hottest handset seller and it don't have WiFi

    None of those 6 items are stated as being from my point of view whereas you "perfect example" very clearly does state it as being a POV..

    This shows perfectly how you make up arbitrary numbers to lend "data support" to your [u]OPINION
    Those numbers certainly aren't arbitrary to me.....they certainly reflect my outlook on how I would choose a device. Whose criteria or weighting system should I use when choosing my device ? Yours ? Sascha Segan's ? If I am the user, shouldn't I be making my own scales since I am the on spending the money ? I asked you to present your weighting system, you chose not to. Let's take your zip code to jwire and see how you do with public hot spots.

    And which of those 6 outside sources are "made up"

    1. Are you saying I made up the results from jwire showing that in the 23rd most populous county in the US there's one free hotspot for every 413 square miles ?
    2. Did I make up the article I quoted ?
    3. Did I make up my local store owner's monthly sales results ?
    4. Did I make up the user reviews on Cnet ?
    5. Are you accusing me of falsifying the results of my own survey ?
    6. Did the Q get WiFi or has something overtaken it as the sales king ?

    Even if you are gonna take the position that anything you can't verify is unacceptable, that still leaves 1, 2, 4 & 6. On the other hand, how many verifiable sources have you listed ? Nothing in that list is "made up".

    I respect your opinion but if ya wanna change my mind you are gonna have to give me a source ...no several sources...that contradicts the information I am getting from the above 6 independent sources.

    Do you own a Treo ? If so, why did you buy it if it didn't have WiFi. Remember I am not saying you wouldn't like to have it. I am saying that ....

    .....and this is the only thing I am saying.....

    .....the 1.1 million people who bought a Treo last year still decided to buy one despite the fact that it didn't have WiFi. So obviously the other features that the Treo have outweighed the absence of WiFi.

    When Lennon is released in Europe, Palm will take some well deserved heat if it doesn't have WiFi. Not so much here in US....but Lennon's successor in the US better have it or I am sure the reviewers will make an issue out of it cause by them the infrastructure should be substantial enough to make poublic wifi use a frequent occurrence.
  14. #134  
    Jack, Treo is not the 800 pound gorilla you imagine. Like I said, using the recent Canalys numbers, please tell me what market share the Treo has.

    Also BTW, Palm has been selling POS handhelds and Treo's in Europe for ages. They just never got traction, due to outdated device technology. WM devices do much better for technological reasons, and Symbian due to backing by big name companies.

    Before you comment on the need for Treo to add new technologies because of their market dominance, please do that calculation first.

    Surur
  15.    #135  
    Palm is a US company that experienced double digit growth for 12 straight quarters. That is a good thing. If Moto sells 1 million Ming phones in China, that obviously increases Moto's market share but how does it really affect Palm's bottom line ?

    I don't understand this fixation on worldwide market share as if it is suppossed to mean something. The math is simple, if they sell more in quarter 3 than they do in quarter 2, that's a good thing....whether their worldwide market share went up or down because MoTo sold 1 million Mings, how does that affect palm's bottom line ?

    You can go into any country and find US made cars even tho they have no real dealer network there. When a customer came knocking and said "I wanna sell your product", palm didn't exactly say "Hey, we don't want your money". But there was no European support network, no presence, no marketing effort.

    If I have a chain of restaurants that sells root beer floats and I am increasing sales by 30% a year, I kinda think that my wallet would be happy. I might offer a smile when ya tell me that I sold 80% of the root beer floats in 2005. Now if all of a sudden, China discovers the root beer float and ChingChow RootBeer stands pop up all over China.

    In 2006, I again sell 30% more root beer floats than in 2005 but my "worldwide share" dropped to 10% cause the chinese are gaga about root beer floats. With 30% more moola in my pocket in 2006 than 2005 I am having trouble understanding why this was a bad year for me.

    And as long as the trade mags keep giving it the Editor's Choice award and calling it the 800 pound gorilla, it IS the 800 pound gorilla (tho I think the term overused). That's the prize all the manufacturer's want.
    Last edited by JackNaylorPE; 08/06/2006 at 12:11 PM.
  16. #136  
    Its simple economics Jack. A little concept called return on investment. If another company is growing faster and making more money by virtue of their choices, you are actually wasting your money and possible profit by investing in a company that is underperforming the market.

    The market grew 55%, WM grew 46%, Symbian grew 67%, and Palm grew 6%. No wonder their stock price tanked.

    Surur
  17. #137  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    I can think of several reasons:

    1. Palm is the 800 pound gorilla - By far the majority of the trade mags still giving the 700p their Editor's Choice award. The 650 was getting it before that. Now if you wanna raise in the rankings, you need something to differentiate yourself so what choice do manufacturers have other than to throw everything they can think out there and hope the market bites.
    Editor's Choice awards are nice I'm sure but as a business what Palm cares about is sales. If there's a market out there for Wifi-enabled handhelds (and I maintain that there is otherwise other manufacturers wouldn't make them) it seems strange that Palm is not attempting to sell to this market, unless that it is there some reason other than simple market opportunity determining whether they do so or not. As for Palm being the 800 pound gorilla - I know you've seen the market share figures and I'm just amazed that you can come to this conclusion. Here (again) is the latest data we have:

    http://homepage.mac.com/do0107/custom/Q2.jpg

    Canalys don't even include Palm OS anymore in their press releases - it's dropped below the cut-off.


    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    2. Horse before the cart - Windows had USB long before ya could buy a rekiable USB device. I can buy a HSDPA phone but don't have many places to use it. Provided ya can meet ya price point, if ya can throw the chip in there, why not ? Perhaps the idea is to sell the customer or, more importantly, the reviewers on "well WiFi will be the next big thing and you are reday for it".
    I don't see how this argument applies more to HTC, Nokia and SonyEricsson than it does to Palm.

    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    3. Lotsa stuff out there but is it selling - http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=69
    You can prove anything with anecdotes, but the numbers show sales of Palm OS devices at best flat and possibly declining. In a rapidly expanding market that's not good.

    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    The Q is the hotests selling handset right now and it ain't got WiFi.
    Of all your arguments I think I'd find this one most convincing - if you can substantiate it (do you have the numbers?). Even if it's true, however, it still doesn't mean there isn't a market for Wifi-enabled handhelds (that Palm could be exploiting).

    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    4. Maintaining Cash Flow - We all know that Palm needs to keep us feeding at the upgrade trough. Now what is "big enough" to make new users switch ? I think a CFO oriented strategist would say, "no way ya introducing 3G and WiFi in the same product". If it was there in the 700's, what could possibly be added to make you spend another $600 in 18 months ? Maybe ya won't use WiFi that much now but ya will in 18 months.
    I don't see how this argument applies more to Palm than it does to HTC, Nokia and SonyEricsson. You think Nokia won't sell another device because they made the E61 with UMTS and Wifi? There's always something new. How about HSDPA and GPS for starters.

    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    5. Infrastructure - HTC, Nokia and Sony are all foreign manufacturers with worldwide presence and therefore dealing with different markets. Palm's sales are for the most part US/NA. The infrastructure here in the US pales to many of those where HTC, Nokia and Sony have a market presence.
    Palm are an international company with a stated intention of expanding outside of the US. This is why they opened a new engineering centre in Dublin last year:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ed Colligan
    We are delighted to open this centre in Europe, a significant step up for our R&D function. This move reflects our intention to accelerate the delivery of next-generation smartphones to European mobile operators and their customers
    http://www.palm.com/us/company/pr/ne...l?reqid=774792

    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    6. ROI - I think it's a given that Garnet needs a lotta "under the hood" work to make WiFi feasible, tho considering the sled, I often wonder. How "smart" is it for Palm to invest heavily in developing WiFi drivers for Garnet only to sunset it by mid 2007 (they might not meet that but that was the plan....tho considering their beef with access about missed deadlines, perhaps it was even sooner).
    This is, I suspect, the real reason. It's not because there isn't a market for it it's because it's too hard to get Wifi and a phone working with Palm OS. I'm betting Palm will have a (WM) Treo with integrated Wifi within 12 months. Possibly much, much sooner.
    Last edited by marcol; 08/07/2006 at 01:53 AM. Reason: Corrected 'Palm' to ''Palm OS' in response to Jack's point 1
  18. #138  
    Regarding Treo's gorrila-hood, have you noticed Palm is currently at a 9 month low, despite your anacdotal evidence that they dominate the smartphone world.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PALM...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

    Surur
    Last edited by surur; 08/06/2006 at 02:06 PM.
  19. #139  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    I certainly need a color screen, I benefit by it, perhaps I don't need 3G but I would benefit by it. However I can't benefit from WiFi with coverage at a fraction of a 1% coverage.
    Right, you "certainly need" a color screen because you "benefit by it", but if someone would benefit by wifi, it's a different story isn't it? Why is it whenever you present an arguement, you always argue your personal situation and apply it to everyone elses? There are many people who would benefit more off wifi than they would off 3G, but you couldn't ever consider that because you "can't benefit from wifi with coverage at a fraction of a 1% coverage". Not trying to sound like an a-hole or anything, but no one cares about your situation Jack. No one cares that you can't use wifi at work or that you ALWAYS have cell phone signal or a computer around you so you don't need wifi on your Treo. Not everyone is like that, and you somehow always fail to see that.

    Exactly. Palm is an American company with by far the great majority of its sales in the US. Palm indicated that it was about to make a serious European push when they hired a VP of International sales in November 2005. It's also no secret that they plan to START that push with Hollywood / Lennon. Now if they choose to leave WiFi out of the European Lennon, I think that would be a mistake. Here in the US, with so little infrastructure available, it still won't matter to much people....the successor to the Lennon tho will have to have WiFi.
    Just because the majority of Palm's sales occur in America, that doesn't mean that they shouldn't try and get better sales elsewhere, especially if they're actually established in other countries but aren't moving that many units.

    Make these go away:
    Shift+down arrow+delete. Real easy.

    1. Gallup poll samples like 1400 - 1500 people with a margin of 2% in presidential elections. How often are they wrong ? Over the last 3 months 1,500 customers have walked into my local store interested in buying smartphones. The owner tells me that he can count the number of customers asking about WiFi per month on one hand. These are real not made up numbers from a guy in the business of selling phones. His livelihood is based upon stocking the right products, he knows the business. How do you discount his experience ?
    That guy selling phones is not the equivalent of a Gallup Poll :-\
    The Gallup Poll uses simple random sampling to reduce bias. (Wikipedia) Does your guy do a simple random sample? Does he even work with customers outside his area? Or his store even? He represents a very small minority of phone sales and cannot be used as an accurate gauge as to whether or not people are interested in wifi on phones. I could just as easily say that I know a guy who works at a Verizon store who sells 6700's all day because it has wifi. Now how does your example hold up?

    2. Here in the 23rd largest county in the US we have 0.000089 % coverage for WiFi. On average that's 1 out of 11,236 people having acess available at any point in time....or one hot public spot every 40 square miles....one free public hot spot for every 413 square miles. How do you discount this fact ?
    I discount it because you haven't given me a source
    I discount it because it sounds like you're only talking about public wifi hotspots
    I discount it because the availability of wifi has nothing to do with whether or people want wifi phones.

    3. The article I posted that said 95% of the people the journalist sees traveling are using Treos. Has anyone come up with an article saying 95% of the people I see are using WiFi.
    This isn't very strong, or compelling data. Should Palm make decisions based on what one journalist sees? I should hope not. Some other journalist could just as easily have said EVERYONE was using 6700's and were on the airports wifi, but what would that prove? Not much more than what your example has: it's just through the eyes of one person. Kinda like your cell phone guy.

    Well I wouldn't say they are "all" geeks but I would say the number of geeks and gadget hounds are much higher on the forums than in the general populace. You can't judge very well how the % will differ but ya can be pretty positive about which way it's gonna go. Therefore if anything, the numbers would be be conservative.
    Right. But like I said, how do ya get an accurate number for the general population? I don't think you can....
  20. DHart's Avatar
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    #140  
    Quote Originally Posted by Trevante
    I discount it because you haven't given me a source
    I discount it because it sounds like you're only talking about public wifi hotspots
    I discount it because the availability of wifi has nothing to do with whether or people want wifi phones.
    Trevante -

    You don't have to discount it because this is just another example of Jack making up another number through twisted pretzel logic to fit his argument.
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