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  1.    #1  
    http://www.palmblvd.com/articles/200...ympomatic.html

    So it seems about 1 in 5 Treos sold are on Windows Mobile.

    "[Palm] sold 581,000 Treos, however; about 20 percent of those its new Windows Mobile-based Treo 700w model"
    For reference, No. of RIM / BB Phones sold last quarter 517,000

    Once the 700p hits the streets, I imagine that ratio will drop some. And I guess that kinda settles the argument of whether Palm will drop POS in the near future....who can afford to give up 80% of their sales ?
  2. #2  
    Remember that 700w number all comes from one US carrier. When put head-to-head across all carriers, it would be interesting to see the breakdown. I'd love to know how many Verizon 650's were sold in that quarter.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  3.    #3  
    Yeah it's still a tough nut to crack. How many people switched carriers just to get the new model or switched just to get WM ? OTOH, people are knowingly buying outdated models ... is that because of carrier loyalty or OS loyalty ... no way to tell methinks with data at hand.

    OTOH, I woulda thot that most people who wanted a POS Treo, already had one when the 700w went on sale.
  4. #4  
    Yeah, there are too many unknowns to be able to reach any definite conclusions. Various thoughts:

    - Do these numbers represent sold to customers or sold to carriers? If the latter, 650 numbers should track to actual sales pretty closely as the carriers have past experience to base their orders from. For the 700w, though, it's an all new product and they have to guess what the demand will be. It's possible, too, that MS encouraged Verizon to order an excess number so as to skew these quarterly numbers.

    - Verizon launched a big ad campaign for the 700w.

    - Did new customers make an educated and intentional choice of the 700w over the 650, or did they simply know they wanted "a Treo" when they walked into the Verizon store?

    ...or, the 700w could honestly be a popular device and the Palm OS Treos could be on the way out.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  5.    #5  
    I think Verizon would have "over bought" if necessary to meet a quota .... I am sure that their "exclusivity" agreeemnt had an opt out for Palm if Verizon had sold like 30 of them. My guess they had sales quotas to meet for each month or exclusivity period woulda ended early.

    Interestingly enough, spoke to Cingular business office today regarding an large affinity agreement ... with a few nudge, nudge, wink , winks it was hinted at that there isn't likely to be a GSM 700p or 700w...maybe on other GSM carriers but not Cingular.

    When I asked, "So no more Treos from Cingular this year ?" The answer given was "Oh I didn't say that....I just said there wouldn't be a 700". Not that I gonna take this as gospel but it would seem to fit a particularly ironic strategy

    Beginning to wonder if palm didn't pull a fast one one everyone a la "The Producers".

    "Sure Verizon ole buddy, you're my favorite and you can have an exclusivity agreement on the 700w for say 4-6 months depending on sales"

    "Sure Sprint, you're my favorite and you know that new fangled windows thing ain't gonna make a big splash....we cramped it w/ too little memory and WM5 ain't quite ready for prime time.....the 700p gonna blow it away so you can have a exclusivity agreement on the new and improved 700, the p version for say 4-6 months depending on sales"

    "Sure Cingular, you're my favorite and what do you want with the outdated 700p or 700w. The new "thing we no longer call Hollywood" is gonna kick **** on that old thing and you can have an exclusivity agreement on the next Treo for say 4-6 months depending on sales"
  6. #6  
    I find the interesting point here to be this line...

    Brighthand quotes a recent report from the analyst firm, "We think it could be several more months before new or upgraded models are launched."

    OUCH, Perry better be buying those gift cards for Ava. This somewhat makes me wonder about my call yesterday when I was told our timing was off slightly. Might it be fall for the 700P?
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Scott R
    Remember that 700w number all comes from one US carrier. When put head-to-head across all carriers, it would be interesting to see the breakdown. I'd love to know how many Verizon 650's were sold in that quarter.
    Correct 700W in one carrier in one country. 650 in dozens of carriers in dizens of countries. Great point.
  8.    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    I find the interesting point here to be this line...

    Brighthand quotes a recent report from the analyst firm, "We think it could be several more months before new or upgraded models are launched."

    OUCH, Perry better be buying those gift cards for Ava. This somewhat makes me wonder about my call yesterday when I was told our timing was off slightly. Might it be fall for the 700P?
    If ya read a little furtherin that article, you will see that they are talking about "handhelds". By Gartner's definition, a Treo is NOT a handheld.

    "This is because, according to a market-research company, Palm isn't going to release any new traditional handhelds for several months.

    In a recent report, Gartner said that this company has decided to stretch out the time between product releases. The report goes on to say, "we think it could be several more months before new or upgraded models are launched."...

    It should be emphasized that these comments were discussing Palm's traditional handhelds, not the Treo line, which Gartner classifies as smartphones."
  9.    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    Correct 700W in one carrier in one country. 650 in dozens of carriers in dizens of countries. Great point.
    http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/03/24/1488109.htm

    "[Fiscal] Third-quarter sales of the Treo 650 and 700w smart phones reached 564,000, up 102 percent from the year-ago period. That growth helped push Palm's share of the U.S. converged smart phone/PDA (personal digital assistant) market to 30 percent, up from 22 percent a year ago.

    Those numbers included sales of the Treo 700w smart phone, the company's first product to use the Microsoft Windows Mobile operating system. Palm expects to launch three more smart phones this calendar year.

    But those numbers did not overwhelm analysts, who said Palm was overly reliant on U.S. sales.

    "The downside is that 80 percent of their sales are in the U.S., which is actually kind of dangerous. The U.S. buys 40 percent of all PCs in the world, but only 5 or 6 percent of all smart phones," said Todd Kort, an analyst with Gartner Inc."
    80% of 581,000 = 464,800 USA POS & WM5 Treos
    20% of 581,000 = 116,200 USA 700w's
    464,800 - 116,200 = 348,600 USA POS Treos

    At worst, outdated POS Treos outsold current model WM5 Treos 3 to 1 in US in fiscal 3rd quarter (jan - march 2006).
  10. #10  
    Actually 561,000-116,200= 464,800 US of which 116,200 were 700W or 25%. I still find that number to be only an assumption and that number almost exactly makes up the difference in the 22% to 30% growth Palm experienced. So if I am reading that correctly the 700W is all gravy growth for Palm and they did not sell any more 600/650's then they did a year ago. Am I right?
  11. #11  
    RIM's BlackBerry 8700 Disappoints
    Mary Crane, 05.08.06, 4:27 PM ET

    Despite high hopes for Research In Motion's BlackBerry devices, sales have been disappointing and competition in the smartphone market has been fierce.

    Piper Jaffray analyst T. Michael Walkley said he had expected Research In Motion to post improved results during the first two quarters following the launch of the new BlackBerry 8700 and the resolution of a $612 million patent infringement settlement with Virginia-based holding company NTP.

    But the company has failed to deliver on hopes for near-term growth due to increasing competition that could drive lower margins on devices and slow down earnings growth in 2007, Walkley said.

    Out of all Research In Motion's various channels, BlackBerry sales appeared to only have improved at T-Mobile in April after the launch of the BlackBerry 8700.

    But despite strong sales of the 8700 at T-Mobile, Research in Motion's gains were offset by strong sales of Taiwan-based High Tech Computer's MDA pocket computer.

    At Cingular and Verizon Communications (nyse: VZ - news - people ), Research in Motion faced similar problems as competition for smartphone products continue to increase in North America.

    In Cingular stores, the popularity of HTC's 8125 has cut into sales of the BlackBerry 8700. Several store managers told Piper Jaffray that the HTC 8125 was sold out due to strong demand, while some stores said the device would sell out within a day or two of receiving shipments.

    In Europe, both Nokia (nyse: NOK - news - people ) and Motorola (nyse: MOT - news - people ) have, or are soon to have, competitive products that could affect BlackBerry's sell-through trends.

    For now, Walkley maintained his "market perform" rating and price target of $82 on Research in Motion shares based on the resolution of the NTP patent infringement suit and BlackBerry earnings, which are expected to decline.

    (A previous version of this article erroneously stated that Palm's Treo 700w outsold the BlackBerry 8700 at Verizon Wireless stores. Verizon doesn't carry the BlackBerry 8700, according to a Verizon spokesperson.)
    http://www.forbes.com/markets/econom...markets17.html

    Relevant article.

    Surur
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    I would guess that Verizon's 6700 is also outselling the w, or at least that it will have more sales a year from now.
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    I think Verizon would have "over bought" if necessary to meet a quota .... I am sure that their "exclusivity" agreeemnt had an opt out for Palm if Verizon had sold like 30 of them. My guess they had sales quotas to meet for each month or exclusivity period woulda ended early.
    Ah, thanks for that bit of common sense. That makes perfect sense, and so I think we need to take these impressive 700w sales numbers with a grain of salt. The only other possible way I could think that Verizon would get an exclusive on the 700w without it being tied to numbers ordered would be if it was tied to their advertising campaign. If they're spending big bucks on advertising the Treo 700w, I suspect that helps Palm's Treo brand awareness across the board.

    And US sales only account for 5-6% of all smartphones? Wow. If accurate, perhaps that's why Nokia hasn't been in any hurry to try to get a CDMA S60 phone out there.

    surur, no offense to the 8125 (an impressive package feature-wise), but I suspect that for the non-geek community, usability (as a phone in particular) will be lacking as compared to the Blackberry, so I wonder how many of those sales will end up being returned.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  14. #14  
    not attacking the op by this, but for these sales figures to be accurately measured, all the units would have to have been released to the market at the exact same time. I do understand however the meaning behind these figures and well its cool to see
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    OTOH, people are knowingly buying outdated models ... is that because of carrier loyalty or OS loyalty ...
    OTOH, I woulda thot that most people who wanted a POS Treo, already had one when the 700w went on sale.
    I hate posting without backup data, but what I'm seeing around here in nyc is more and more people getting the 650. It's still a very hot looking device, and people bored with their boring phones are picking it up. Not to mention the frequent sightings on TV shows like Boston Legal last night, the phone has a pretty high cool factor.

    You're right, those who wanted a PalmOS Treo probaly already had one, I do not think these are the people currently accountable for the still very very good sales figures.
    My Freebie Java Widgets (Compatible with 650, 680, 700p & 755p)
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  16. #16  
    I don't think Verizon is exactly jumping for joy with their 116k sold, but I'm sure the grand fleecing they call a data plan hurt w sales tremendously. It'll be interesting to see Sprint's 700w sell rate after 4 months.
    A new Avatar to commemorate Silly Season.
  17. #17  
    I know this is a hard concept for many of us early-adopter geeks to appreciate, but I suspect that sales of the 650 have taken off significantly over the past year because the price has finally come down to a point where average people can consider it. $400+ is well out of the mainstream price range.

    Unfortunately for Palm, several "dumb" phones display better, even offer some better features, and sell even cheaper, which is working against them with the non-geeks.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  18.    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    Actually 561,000-116,200= 464,800
    Aint that the same as;

    80% of 581,000 = 464,800 USA POS & WM5 Treos
    20% of 581,000 = 116,200 USA 700w's
    464,800 - 116,200 = 348,600 USA POS Treos

    At worst, outdated POS Treos outsold current model WM5 Treos 3 to 1 in US in fiscal 3rd quarter (jan - march 2006).
    3:1 means 75% to 25%

    \
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    So if I am reading that correctly the 700W is all gravy growth for Palm and they did not sell any more 600/650's then they did a year ago. Am I right?
    I think slightly less but again, that's a 1+ year old device....I think the majority of peeps either bought alreday or are holding out for new model post-XMas 2006.
  19.    #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by Scott R
    I know this is a hard concept for many of us early-adopter geeks to appreciate, but I suspect that sales of the 650 have taken off significantly over the past year because the price has finally come down to a point where average people can consider it. $400+ is well out of the mainstream price range.
    Good point which many of us "must have right away" types often forget. I just found out I can buy a brand new Treo650 from Cingular as an existing customer w/o any "new customer" rebates for $129. For $129, all my kids want one.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by JackNaylorPE
    I think slightly less but again, that's a 1+ year old device....I think the majority of peeps either bought alreday or are holding out for new model post-XMas 2006.
    The fact that it's a year old is irrelevant. Take a look at the Razr, it's still selling like mad.

    http://www.mobilemag.com/content/100/344/C7780/

    And that came out Nov. 2004
    My Freebie Java Widgets (Compatible with 650, 680, 700p & 755p)
    HourlyXCast - Hourly & 7 Day Forecasts! Weather Graphics, Radar Images & Alerts. "When 'PM Showers' just doesn't cut it"
    - RottenTomatoMeter - Movie Ratings, Reviews, Showtimes for New Movies & DVDs
    - TV2Nite - Calendar Events for your Favorite TV Shows!
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